Possible EW forecast in USDCOP, BULLISH IN THE LONG, LONG RUNSorry for the incorrect EW labeling in the chart, I think that this way you can see the waves in a better way. Sorry for my simple english, I am not a native english speaker.
USDCOP
USDCOP a 3,383El dolar luego de rebotar subirá en pocos días a partir de hoy a 3,383 y podrá pasar hasta los 3,393 testeando máximos históricos con posible ruptura de techo.
Same flows in USDPENHere we can see the 5th wave targets for this large sequence. From a birds eye view we have the potential to extend as high as 3.67 over the next few quarters.
Recommend buying support here at current prices with targets at 3.49 up to 3.67.
Best of luck
USDCOP Macro Flows Towards 3650Risk premium is low once more in EM and we have long term targets spotted at 3650 here.
=> The rise since April is now clearly impulsive and the last and final levels in play now for this 5th wave is 3650. Pullbacks should only be bought, as mentioned in the previous idea (see attached) and now that we have our pullback..you know what to do.
To put simply, a Q3 hike is underpriced and markets will start trading increased odds of a move from the Fed later this year. It's time to start building positions on the buy-side in dollar for the next few months.
Good luck, I know not many are trading EM so feel free to PM or open the discussion below.
Thanks
COP risk premium low in EM space=> Here we are tracking a break to the upside in USDCOP with a target of 3223
=> This flow is trading the recent underperformance in Columbia and playing it against USD strength via inflation and bond to equity flows.
=> This should be a quick and sharp move with low political risk in Columbia and upside in Oil prices being capped for now.(edited)
=> If risk rises globally we see COP getting hammered and experiencing real pain with the knife being stuck in because of the low carry and less hawkish BanRep(edited)
=> Good luck to those few who are trading this cross
Colombian Peso strugglingI do not trade this kind of currencies, but if a student asks me, I'll try to show you a quick view of it. The key level for this asset is on this weekly chart.
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Dollar bounce back during the week, according to Fed rate would The dollar closed last week with gains, a move that left the door open for a technical rebound; the bullish momentum would be associated with international risk scenario and correction of oil
.
Oil moved away from USD50 amid China slowdown and the strong dollar, despite the market expects rates to remain stable after the weak jobs data, Brexit has led to the purchase of risk free assets and strength in the US currency.
Oil started the week USD48,31 which increases the likelihood of gains in the dollar, while the dollar remains over 2,940 is likely to climb to 3,040 and 3,050, the breakdown of the 2940 mean the continuation of the downtrend and fall to 2,870.
Wednesday's rate decision from the Fed force the breakup of the 3,050 as long as interest rates rises or comments that trigger international risk, otherwise vendors might appear between 3000 and 3050.
For now, wait a technical rebound until 3040 and shall evaluate the information to determine the profit taking or a 3.120 dollar. It should set a stop loss below 2,940.
USDCOP wave iv))Everything seems set down the USDCOP go to the level of 38.2%, wave iv)). So the Colombian currency earn 366 pesos per US dollar, thus the probability of rebound in 2827 forming the wave v)) of 3 looking the maximum 3436.
Wave iv)) depends on the EURSUD appreciate a little more, pushing up with this oil.
Short USDCOP, a new trend has begunLast week the dollar broke its medium-term uptrend. With a further rise in rates from the Banco de la República, the intention to enable auction sales with a rise of 3% compared to the TRM average of 20 days and the recovery of oil, vendors will have control of the market during this week.
The $ 3,380 is the new resistance level, so while below this level, the chance to correct to 3,125 levels is high.
Possible correction in the USDCOPThe inverse correlaion between oil and the dollar remains , therefore fell last week nearly 140 pesos.
With falls on Thursday and Friday a pattern of bearish candles known as "Techo en Pinzas" was formed. This move leaves the 3,320 as a resistance .
While the dollar does not close above 3,320 , there is a likelihood of a correction towards 3,120 or 3,060 ; Prices in this area are above previous minimum and the uptrend line , which act as support areas.
If the dollar closed above 3,330 , it is likely that the upward trend comes back and the dollars set a new high.
USDCOP COLOMBIAN PESO ON THE ZONETHE COLOMBIAN PESO HAS BEEN IN THE 2600S ZONE 3 TIMES IN THE LAST 12 YEARS, AND IT HAS NEVER CLOSED ABOVE 2700. WE NEED TO SEE A BOUNCE IN THE PRICE OF OIL, OR AT LEAST SEE IT HANDLE THE 57-60 LEVEL AND EXPECT THE PESO GO TOWARDS ZONES OF 2200 FOR NOW. MAYBE THE POLICY MAKER OF THE COLOMBIA FINDS OUT WHAT IS OBVIUS AND LET THE PESO GET STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLAR. THE TECHNICALS SHOW THAT IT IS CLEARLY OVERBOUGHT, BUT THE PAIR DEPENDS A LOT OF THE CIRCUMSTANCES OF THE COUNTRY AND THE ACTUAL GOVERNMENT IS REALLY KICKING DOLLARS OF THE COUNTRY AND THAT MAKES HARD THAT THE PESO DEVALUATES A LITTLE.
EVEN THOUGH IS AN INTERESTING THING THAT THE PESO HAS NEVER BEEN ABOVE 2650 LEVEL ALMOS IN THIS MILLENIUM.
