USD/DKK 1H Chart: Rate could edge lower in short termThe US Dollar has been stranded in a channel up against the Danish Krone for the last three months. If looking at the pair’s movement this month, two additional channels can be distinguished. The senior one has guided the pair towards the bottom boundary of the aforementioned dominant pattern circa 6.28. From that point forward, a junior ascending channel was formed.
A retracement from the 6.28 area suggests that the pair might be set for appreciation in the medium term. However, in order to do so, the Greenback has to breach the upper line of the middle pattern, reinforced by the 200-hour SMA and the monthly PP in the 6.36/37 area.
It is likely that the pair pushes up to this mark within the following trading sessions, but the subsequent movement should nevertheless be to the downside where it could test the most senior pattern and the monthly S1 circa 6.29/30. The pair should then resume its general direction north.
USDDKK
USDDKK long for month of NovemberUSDDKK broke the moving average, suggesting a potential trend change. This in tandem with October's monthly bull candle gives me enough reason to believe an up trend is about to begin.
My orders are placed at fibonacci retracement levels 1.0, 78.6, 61.8, 50.0, 38.2, 23.6. and 0.0.
Each order contains a 30 pip stop loss and no take profit target.
These trades are designed to have 3 different exit strategies: 1) Stop out. 2) Manual closure. 3) End of month manual closure.
* End of month manual closure means that the month is over and trade parameters are no longer valid, therefore I will close the trades manually.
Long USDDKKSince last month's candle was a bull candle, I am looking for bull moves on the daily time frame such as this one.
Price broke through the moving average. This suggests a possible move even lower.
My pending orders sit at fibonacci retracement levels 1.0, 78.6, 61.8, 50.0, 38.2, 23.6, 0.0.
Each order has a stop loss of 30 pips. Risk is less than 2% per trade.
No take profit target is set for this trade. The ways in which I will exit the trade is by stop out, manually closing at my discretion, or holding until the end of the month.
USD/DKK 1H Chart: Pair suggests breakoutIt might be said that USD/DKK is trading in three channels simultaneously. The most prominent one has confined the rate in a downward-sloping movement since early December, 2016, as apparent on the daily chart. The two most recent ones were formed late in August (as a new up-wave) and September. Meanwhile, the rate tested the upper boundary of the long-term channel earlier this week.
However, the diminishing trading range of the medium ascending channel suggest that the US Dollar might still test the 6.31/6.32 area, supported by the 55-, 100– and 200-hour SMAs and the weekly PP, prior to dashing through the upper boundaries of the senior and most junior channels.
The upward target could be the monthly R1 and the weekly R2 at 6.3822. Even if this surge does not occur right away, the rate being located near its three-year low at 6.1588 could pressure the rate for a surge in the medium or even long term.
USD/DKK positioned southThe US Dollar is trading in two patterns simultaneously against the Danish Krone. The senior formation is a four-week channel up. In addition, the Greenback has entered a minor consolidation phase, thus forming a descending triangle.
All indications point to a possible fall in the hourly and daily time-frames, starting from technical indicators and ending with descending triangle being a bearish pattern. Likewise, the rate has already reached the upper channel boundary.
The rate still managed to realise the small upside potential up to the 6.26 mark due to a sudden surge. However, the Greenback is expected to allay this bearish sentiment and reverse to the downside, thus moving below a cluster formed by the 55-, 100– and 200-hour SMAs at 6.25. The nearest bottom limit is the weekly S1 at 6.1923.
RSI Quick Scan - Forex (aka Fiat)Here is my quick scan of the market.
Of course please don't just buy in Long/Short just because strength shows overbought/oversold.
There is always more room to 0 or 100.
1Day:
AUDCHF - 26 RSI
USDCHF - 29 RSI
USDSGD - 28 RSI
USDDKK - 26RSI
Honorable mentions:
USDPLN - 30 RSI Rising ATR
NZDCHF - 30 RSI
USDNOK - 31 RSI High ATR
EURNZD - 75 RSI
EURSEK - 72 RSI
EURTRY - 67 RSI (Bull Div)
A little extra work defining key candle swings/fib support levels with price alerts tends to pan out on at least one.
I tend to look for:
key candle momentum swings
day close fractals
dbl bottom/top
USDDKK - Long trade idea for next weekOn 4H, USDDKK oscillates between two main parallel trends since 3th December 2015. PA is currently under the cloud but just bounced on a layer of supporting lines. We may now except an attempt to reach the Kijun with a weakening Danish Krone. If Kijun is broken, PA may attempt to traverse the cloud which would be the first strong sign of a bullish trend.
In case of cloud traversal, the main trigger will be the level 6.906 which in case of a break by the lagging span (and bullish Ichimoku signals) would open the doors for a long trade.