USDEUR
USDEUR: Short the Euro every day, for 1 weekSplit your position size in equal sized parts, and enter longs gradually against the Euro. The EURUSD pair is the one most people trade, so, it'd be an EURUSD short, but I wanted to show people how the uptrend in the dollar/euro cross looks to prevent biases.
We have 5 days without a new high, and a new low under the previous 3 days' range. This is a good excuse to start entering longs againt the Euro here. You can enter 0.03 lots, per every 10k in your account, gradually, and ramp it up if it drops a bit more, as long as it doesn't drop too much (more than a 229 pips climb in EURUSD).
Once we're in profit we can start adding and tightening stop losses. For now, I'm not using stops, simply adding gradually, for as long as the trade remains valid.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
Selling Opportunity - USDEUR Its been in a consolidation for about a week (Due to the holidays), if it breaks on the downside prepare for a sell but keep an eye for any fake breakouts.
When I activate my trade. I will hold unto this position till around the 78.6% ( 0.9396 ) Fibonacci mark and leave my SL around a few pips above the consolidation pattern.
EUR/USD Long term Short. Parity at least.Euro should drift toward and eventually past parity with USD. Any short term bounces should be sold unless and until 112.996 is broken on the weekly chart. If it bounces from here (which it could) it should meet with more resistance near the 1.0757 declining 9 wk MA and then the 1.1041 declining 30 wk MA.
Fundamental reasons include:
ECB extension of QE through Dec '17
FED expected to continue rate hikes in '17
Continued Political instability throughout Europe poses serious risk to Euro's very survival
Tremors of demand for Euro exit in PIGS
Russian expansionary Foreign Policy, continued clash w/ west in Middle East
Migrant drain on European Welfare systems continues as conflicts intensify in Middle East
Technical reasons include:
Bearish MACD cross at 0 line on weekly chart
Price below descending 30 wk MA
Price below descending 9 wk MA
RSI @ 35.816
Close to breakdown of 1.5 yr consolidation channel (needs confirmation)
Please feel free to offer any feedback and/or insights you may have!
The relative currency contribution to the DXY surge after Trump A temper tantrum is an emotional outburst, usually associated with children or those in emotional distress, that is typically characterized by stubbornness, crying, screaming, defiance, anger ranting, a resistance to attempts at pacification and, in some cases, hitting (source wikipedia).
The Trumper Tantrum is a combination of fears about US trade wars and optimism about a possible US economic surge if Trump succeeds is growing the US economy and bringing overseas companies (and their cash) plus overseas investors back into the USA. Trump does not want a strong USD.
I am short DXY and long AUXUSD (roughly follows the Yen), GDX.
While tntsunrise and others expect a further fall in AUXUSD to $1120 or lower, I am respectfully more inclined to see JPYUSD and AUXUSD rising if DXY falls. The COT report for gold, day, etc will be released Monday due to Friday being a federal holiday.
There will likely be multiple Fed/FOMC interest rate rises in the next 18 months which could strengthen DXY. Inflation would hurt DXY. I am more into the bond/debt crash camp with hyperinflation first and deflation later. Trump may succeed with the US economy and delay the bubble burst for a while.
USD/EUR - GOOD TIME TO BUY EUR AGAINAfter a breakout, we have seen the correction touching previous resistance, which is now acted as support where buying is taking place. It is a good time to buy this currency pair as it looks bullish.
Top 3 Points Noted:
1. Bullish Divergence
2. Channel Breakout
3. MACD crossover.
After reaching 50; sideways to lower. downside targetsAfter reaching 50, as expected some sideways action. sold the 52c around 1.05 around 2 weeks ago.
I am neutral, because this looks like a correction of the prevailing uptrend as indicated in the dark red trendchannel.
Downside support are the blue trend line at around 48.20 and the 20 day MA or middle BBand.
Further on the downside we are looking at the lower trend channel between 46 and 47
For now I am covering the 52 calls and wait to sell some put spreads or puts until we reach the lower trend channel