USDGBP
GBPJPY LongSame setup as the USDJPY, looks like the standard 38.2 fib short term trader taking profits aka scalpers and day traders in Asia. Might have a little more retracement possible down to the 50 but should be looking for an upside target in the neighborhood of 141.167. This is just my idea so always trade your plan and trade with caution. Good luck all!
10 Great Trading Quotes
It's always refreshing to hear from some of the trading greats that have made a killing on the markets.
Here are ten quotes that'll make you think twice:
"Volatility is greatest at turning points, diminishing as a new trend becomes established." - George Soros
Soros cemented his position as a trading legend when he banked billions by shorting the British pound ahead of Black Wednesday - the day that traders broke the pound. They didn't really break the pound, but they forced the British Government to pull it from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM), which it had joined in an attempt to unify European economies.
Soros made a pretty penny from trading volatile markets, opting to use it as an indication of a the beginning of a new trend.
"Don’t be a hero. Don’t have an ego. Always question yourself and your ability. Don’t ever feel that you are very good. The second you do, you are dead." - Paul Tudor Jones
Jones is a Tennessee-born hedge fund manager, investor and philanthropist who as of February 2017, was the 120th richest person on the Forbes 400. The market is a living, breathing thing. It is constantly changing and it is always right. Jones understood this, which is why he stressed the importance of being adaptable and capable of changing your trading style to suit market conditions.
As Darwin famously said, it is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent, but the one most adaptable to change.
“You don't need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beats the guy with 130 IQ.” - Warren Buffet
A household name in the trading and investing sphere, Buffet has made more money than most of us put together.
You don't need to understand electricity to flick the light switch, and you don't need to understand the physics of a wave to be able to surf it.
“Superlative performance is really a confluence of dozens of small skills or activities, each one learned or stumbled upon, which have been carefully drilled into habit and then are fitted together in a synthesized whole. There is nothing extraordinary or superhuman in any one of those actions; only the fact that they are done consistently and correctly, and all together, produce excellence.” - Daniel F. Chambliss, Professor of Sociology
Here, Chambliss emphasizes the mundanity of excellence. Each factor that helps us make our trading decisions may seem underwhelming on its own, but bundle them all together and it produces some incredible results.
"I was seldom able to see an opportunity until it had ceased to be one." - Mark Twain
Trust your analysis before you miss the move.
Declining DollarFollowing Trump's inauguration last Friday the BEARISH tone to the USD looks certain to remain and we've been SHORT SPX500 from 2264 in the belief that this market is overbought and due a correction.
With the USD declining and the Dollar Index heading south, we are expecting more dollar weakness which should boost all USD pairs although not at the same rate. With dovish noises from the RBNZD , the New Zealand Dollar may not advance as much as the GBP so each counties fundamentals need to be factored in.
We are SHORT USDOLLAR Index looking for a move down to test support at 1231. Under that opens a move down to the 200 day SMA at 1210 area.
The US market open will be particularly interesting today.
The relative currency contribution to the DXY surge after Trump A temper tantrum is an emotional outburst, usually associated with children or those in emotional distress, that is typically characterized by stubbornness, crying, screaming, defiance, anger ranting, a resistance to attempts at pacification and, in some cases, hitting (source wikipedia).
The Trumper Tantrum is a combination of fears about US trade wars and optimism about a possible US economic surge if Trump succeeds is growing the US economy and bringing overseas companies (and their cash) plus overseas investors back into the USA. Trump does not want a strong USD.
I am short DXY and long AUXUSD (roughly follows the Yen), GDX.
While tntsunrise and others expect a further fall in AUXUSD to $1120 or lower, I am respectfully more inclined to see JPYUSD and AUXUSD rising if DXY falls. The COT report for gold, day, etc will be released Monday due to Friday being a federal holiday.
There will likely be multiple Fed/FOMC interest rate rises in the next 18 months which could strengthen DXY. Inflation would hurt DXY. I am more into the bond/debt crash camp with hyperinflation first and deflation later. Trump may succeed with the US economy and delay the bubble burst for a while.
Highest probability FX trade right nowAs of October 1st 2016, the Norwegian Krona against the Swiss Frank is unquestionably one of the highest probability trades I currently see in the FX market, if not the highest probability trade on a weekly closing basis. TradingView is not giving me permission to set-up a NOK/CHF cross, so instead I set-up the USDNOK/USDCHF, which neutralizes the US dollar in the equation.
Attached below is the chart of CADCHF, which likely signals some form of a bottom. I analyze the Canadian dollar because of its correlation with crude oil, since the correlation with oil and Norway is high as well. Looking at the NOKCAD, I see a potential breakdown in the Cad against the Nok, but far too much pressure in the $6 level to be really interested in the trade. Now let's look at the Russian Ruble - also highly correlated with oil. For now, Rubles are presenting a stronger outlook than Cad dollars - see third chart below. So let's look at NOK/RUB - the cross between these two will likely be in a long term consolidation. Lastly, let's look at Norway's currency against gold. The Norwegian Krona just broke a major weekly pennant.
CADCHF
Norway against Canada
Russia against Canada
Norway against Russia
Norway against Gold
GBP/AUD 12345abc PATTERN & RANGE TRADING12345 Pattern Happening
Price is at S1 ready to complete 4-5 leg of pattern to R1.
We should see a corrective ABC pattern if current 12345 is completed, this should start at the important 1.8000 level and break down to the historic levels attached to chart (1.65000 and 1.45000).
Repeat symbol is showing that price reversed previously at 1.7000 level.
I have posted 2 trade orders that I will be making for my range trading portfolio.
Cable: Waiting for news that lead to a new destination.We observe the USDGBP doubting. Above does not dare with the highest relative (0.77985) below marked tendencies, long haul at various levels. (075,299) - (0.73638).
The MACD is bullish background with divergent personality. The price probably show some volatility when approaching zero.
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