USDHKD One of the best buys in the market.The USDHKD pair just formed a 1W Death Cross this week but the current 1W candle is a green one. The reason is that it is rebounding after reaching last week the 2-year Support Zone. We believe that we will see an aggressive rise next that will approach the Lower Highs trend-line. Our target is just below it at 7.82500.
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USDHKD
USDHKD Bounced off the 2022 Support! Strong buy!The USDHKD pair hit amidst Monday's turmoil the top of the Support Zone that was established back on the week of December 05 2022 and instantly rebounded. This naturally shows the strong technical demand of that level.
Even tough another 1-2 weeks of consolidation is possible, on the long-term, we expect a test of the May 01 2023 Lower Highs trend-line. Our Target is 7.8300.
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USDHKD Be ready for a long-term buy.The USDHKD pair has been giving us excellent trades in the past 12 months and the latest (April 18, see chart below) almost hit our 7.79500 Target about 3 weeks ago:
With the price approaching yet again the 11-month Support Zone, there is no reason to diverge from this successful pattern. Right now by being so close to the Support Zone, the R/R ratio favors buying towards the Resistance Zone.
Our Target will be slightly lower at 7.83900 (April 08 High).
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USDHKD Approaching the 2-year Resistance Zone. Major Sell.The USDHKD pair has been rising since November 2023 after hitting the Support Zone and is approaching the 2-year Resistance Zone. The Sine Waves help us understand the cyclical nature behind it. This is a low risk sell opportunity for the long-term. Our Target is 7.79500 (top of Support Zone).
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USDHKD Wave trading continues for high percentage profits.We have been using the USDHKD pair for wave trading for a very long time (see standard example below) due to its distinct characteristic and tight correlation:
It is more than obvious on this 1D chart that the application of the Sine Wave tool gives high probability entries and exits for bottom/ top buying and selling. Currently we are on an uptrend that should start topping in February. That will be our next low risk trade and it will be a sell. Profit taking will be made towards the end of June as the Sine Wave approaches its bottom.
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Fixed Exchange Rates: Benefits and LimitationsFixed exchange rates, a cornerstone of international finance, play a pivotal role in shaping global commerce and investment landscapes. This article delves into their intricacies, exploring the historical evolution, practical understanding, and the balance of benefits and challenges they present.
Historical Context of Fixed Exchange Rates
The concept of a fixed exchange rate system dates back centuries, but its modern incarnation emerged prominently with the Bretton Woods agreement in 1944. This fixed exchange rate regime established stable currency rates by pegging them to the US dollar (USD), which was convertible to gold.
This arrangement aimed to provide international monetary stability by preventing competitive devaluations and promoting economic growth. However, by the early 1970s, the Bretton Woods system collapsed, leading to a shift towards more flexible currency systems. Despite this, pegged exchange rates continue to be adopted in various forms by several countries.
Understanding Fixed Exchange Rates
A fixed exchange rate is a system where a country's currency value is tied to another major currency or a basket of currencies. In this regime, the exchange rate is maintained within a very narrow range. Countries with fixed exchange rates adopt this approach to stabilise global trade and financial relations.
A real-world fixed exchange rate example is the Hong Kong dollar (HKD), which has been pegged to the US dollar since 1983. Under this arrangement, the Hong Kong dollar is maintained at a fixed value of approximately 7.8 to the US dollar. This stability is achieved by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, which trades the local currency against the USD as needed. You can see how this relationship has unfolded throughout the years with USD/HKD charts in FXOpen’s free TickTrader platform.
The predictability offered by a stable rate is typically advantageous for international trade and investment, but it requires significant reserves of the pegged currency to maintain its value.
Fixed Exchange Rate Pros and Cons
While many economies choose a floating system nowadays, there are pros and cons of a fixed exchange rate.
Advantages of a Fixed Exchange Rate
Stability in Global Trade: Pegged currencies reduce the uncertainty and risk associated with floating currencies, making it easier for businesses to plan and engage in international commerce.
Reduced Risk in International Investments: Investors are more likely to invest in countries with stable currencies, as it lowers the risk of losing money through price fluctuations.
Control of Inflation Rates: Countries can maintain low inflation levels by pegging their currency to a stable, low-inflation economy.
Prevent Competitive Devaluations: Such a regime prevents countries from engaging in competitive devaluations, which may lead to a 'race to the bottom' and global economic instability.
Increased Policy Discipline: Anchored rates can impose discipline on a country's fiscal and monetary policies, as maintaining the peg requires consistent, responsible economic management.
Simplified Transactions: A fixed currency simplifies the process of global transactions by providing predictability in exchange costs, reducing the need for complex hedging strategies.
Disadvantages of a Fixed Exchange Rate
Overvaluation or Undervaluation: Maintaining a fixed rate might lead to misalignment, where a currency may become overvalued or undervalued relative to its economic fundamentals.
High Costs of Maintenance: To maintain the peg, countries often need to hold large reserves of foreign currency, which may be costly and economically inefficient.
Lack of Monetary Policy Flexibility: Countries lose the ability to set their own interest rates and conduct independent monetary policy, as they must focus on maintaining the peg.
Vulnerability to External Shocks: Tied exchange rates can make a country more susceptible to economic problems in the nation to which its currency is pegged.
Risk of Speculative Attacks: If investors believe a currency is overvalued or undervalued, they may engage in speculative attacks, leading to severe financial crises.
Reduced Responsiveness to Domestic Conditions: A pegged currency regime limits a country’s ability to respond to domestic economic changes, such as inflation, unemployment, or economic downturns.
Fixed Exchange Rates in Modern Trading
In modern trading, understanding the dynamics of fixed currencies offers traders specific advantages and insights:
Predictability in Forex Pairs: Traders can anticipate less volatility in forex involving a fixed value, allowing for more stable long-term investment strategies.
Indicator of Economic Policies: The status and changes in a fixed rate potentially signal shifts in a country's monetary and fiscal policies, providing traders with crucial information for decision-making.
Trade and Investment Decisions: Understanding which countries have pegged rates can guide traders in making informed decisions about trade and investment opportunities.
List of Fixed Exchange Rate Currencies
As of 2023, several currencies operate under a fixed exchange rate system. Notable examples include:
Hong Kong dollar (HKD) - pegged to the US dollar.
United Arab Emirates dirham (AED) - pegged to the US dollar.
West African CFA franc (XOF) and Central African CFA franc (XAF) - both pegged to the euro.
Bahamian dollar (BSD) - pegged to the US dollar.
Danish krone - pegged to the euro.
The Bottom Line
In conclusion, grasping the nuances of fixed exchange rates is crucial for anyone involved in international finance. Whether weighing the pros and cons or observing their impact on modern trading, this knowledge is invaluable. For those looking to apply this understanding practically, opening an FXOpen account can be a strategic step, offering a platform to navigate and capitalise on the opportunities in the global financial markets.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
USDHKD BUY AnalysisI've been following this chart for a while. After having an OVERSOLD signal in the 1D chart, I also received buy signals in the 4H chart and therefore I decided to report this position.
At this moment the position is not open yet, but if it follows the trend, as indicated in the graph (by the blue arrow), I will open the trade as soon as it reaches the indicated price (in the yellow circle).
Naturally, if it were to reverse course and therefore take the wrong path (red arrow), this trade will not open and will be cancelled.
USDHKD: Rejection on the 1D MA50 and LH trendline. Sell.USDHKD is on a neutral 1D technical outlook (RSI = 47.421, MACD = -0.002, ADX = 19.830) as it is approaching the end of a Descending Triangle pattern. Yesterday it got a double rejection on the 1D MA50 and the LH trendline.
A harmonic Descending Triangle broke down to the S1 level after after its third contact with the LH trendline. Consequently we trrat this as a sell opportunity (TP = 7.7940).
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USDHKD The wonderful wave trading of this pair.It has been almost 1 year since we published a long-term perspective on the USDHKD pair (chart below) based on a cyclical behavior and as you see it has worked wonderfully:
Basically the Sine Waves couldn't have mapped it better and have successfully projected the sharp fall straight after our article as well as the one that started in May (2023). Right now this Cycle has bottomed and we should again see it rise to the pivotal 7.8500 level. What we want to see after that is a series of Lower Highs on the 1D RSI and as usual that will be the signal to sell.
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USDHKD Drop imminent on a 5-year RSI signalThe USDHKD pair naturally has a tight trade but at times gets volatility shocks. A signal that since 2017 has triggered such shocks to the downside has been flashing on the 1D RSI.
As you see during that period, every time the 1D RSI formed Lower Highs while the candle action was either rising or flat, a strong drop occured. We have another 5 such occurrences. The price is right now on the multi-year Resistance level, supported by the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and the most likely target is the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which has been untouched since February 2021.
Notice also the nice flow provided by the Sine Waves that have fairly accurately caught major market lows since 2016. Such a low is next projected by this indicator for the last week of November. The timing seems perfect for a sell on the USDHKD pair.
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USDHKD 13th MAY 2022As one of the world's leading international financial centers, Hong Kong's service-based services are characterized by low taxes, nearly free ports and good international financial markets.
Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) has sold US dollar to marking the first intervention of the HKMA in over three years.
It will continue to closely monitor market situations with a view to maintaining monetary and financial stability.
USDHKD for me needs to get and hold above 7.8000This is for Carlos who requested I take a look at USDHKD on one of the recent Monday Market Updates.
This weekly USDHKD chart shows the boundaries of the currency over the last few years as it moves between its upper boundary at 7.85, and its lower boundary at 7.75.
Presently we've seen a grind north from the lower boundary this year and we're presently hitting the Feb 20 highs just underneath 7.80.
For me, price needs t get above that 7.80 range and hold above it on the weekly chart for me to remain bullish. if it can do that then its next target would be in the 7.825 region.
Watch the price action here to see if we break and hold the 7.80 level...or whether its rejected.
Hope that helps Carlos!