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USDHUF

Can a Currency's Destiny Be Rewritten?The Hungarian forint stands at a critical crossroads, embodying a profound economic narrative that extends far beyond mere exchange rates. Its persistent decline—losing 59% against the US dollar over a decade—represents more than a statistical anomaly; it symbolizes a nation's complex struggle with monetary sovereignty, economic strategy, and global financial integration. This isn't simply a story about currency depreciation, but a nuanced exploration of how economic policies intersect with political ambitions and market realities. At the heart of this financial drama lies a compelling debate about euro adoption, which has transformed from a distant possibility to an increasingly urgent consideration. Investment experts like Viktor Zsiday are challenging the very sustainability of maintaining an independent currency that appears systematically mismanaged. The forint's trajectory reveals deeper structural challenges: while a weaker currency has temporarily benefited Hungary's export-oriented economy, it has simultaneously obscured fundamental competitiveness issues and exposed the country to significant economic vulnerabilities. The unfolding scenario presents a fascinating intellectual puzzle for economists and policymakers. With the Hungarian National Bank preparing for leadership transition and the government maintaining a complex stance on monetary policy, the forint represents a living case study of the delicate balance between national autonomy and global economic integration. The potential shift towards a more dovish monetary approach could either destabilize the currency further or open new pathways for economic recalibration, making this a moment of critical strategic significance. As Hungary confronts these intricate monetary challenges, the forint's journey becomes a metaphorical lens through which we can examine broader questions of economic adaptation, political will, and national economic strategy. The coming months will likely reveal whether Hungary will embrace transformative monetary reforms or continue navigating its current uncertain trajectory—a decision that could reverberate far beyond its borders and provide valuable insights into the complex dynamics of emerging market economies in an increasingly interconnected global financial landscape.
Long
by signalmastermind
USDHUF Major double bullish break-out took place yesterdayThe USDHUF pair achieved a huge double bullish break-out yesterday as not only did it break above Resistance 1 (360.650) but also above (and closed) the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the 4-month Descending Triangle pattern. At the same time it closed above its 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). This is a major buy signal for the long-term, but even if we keep a short-term perspective, we can now target 367.500 (just below Resistance 2) with a lower risk factor than before. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Long
by TradingShot
1
Hungarian Forint (HUF) at Risk as Ukraine Cuts Oil SupplyUkraine's halt on oil transit from Russia's Lukoil throws Hungary's energy security into question. With reliance on the Druzhba pipeline for 70% of its oil, Hungary faces a shortage and potential price hikes. This disruption is poised to trigger a domino effect: rising energy costs, inflationary pressures, and a widening trade deficit due to increased import needs. As a result, the Hungarian Forint (HUF) becomes vulnerable to depreciation due to potential capital outflows and central bank intervention to curb inflation. However, there's a glimmer of hope. Diversifying energy sources through alternative pipelines from unaffected Russian companies or the Adria pipeline (capacity limitations permitting) could offer some relief. Additionally, long-term investments in renewable energy can lessen Hungary's dependence on foreign oil and stabilize energy costs. Furthermore, regional cooperation with neighboring countries like Slovakia and Czechia, which also depend on the Druzhba pipeline, could lead to collaborative solutions and shared infrastructure investments. The coming months will be critical for Hungary as it navigates this complex crisis and implements effective mitigation strategies to safeguard its economy and the stability of the Forint.
Long
by signalmastermind
USDHUF Dip buy opportunity right below.The USDHUF pair has been trading within a Triangle pattern since the March 15 2023 High. It has seen 3 Bearish Legs so far and currently is on the 4th. All corrections reversed to a Buy when the 1D RSI hit or came very close to its Oversold barrier (30.00). We are anticipating another such opportunity to target 370.000 (just below its 0.9 Fibonacci retracement level, which is where the previous Lower Highs where priced). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
by TradingShot
USDHUF Sell when the 1D MA200 breaks.The USDHUF pair had a bearish break-out on our last analysis (October 13 2023, see chart below) and after hitting our 345.700 Sell Target, it rebounded: The rebound formed a Channel Up, which again failed and a new downtrend has been confirmed after the price broke below the 1D MA50 (blue turned-line) again. Once the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) breaks as well, we will have a bearish break-out confirmation, similar to October - November 2023. Our Target is Support 2 at 342.1565. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Short
by TradingShot
USDHUF: Buy and sell signals depending on the 1D MA200.USDHUF is bearish on the 1D technical outlook (RSI = 37.886, MACD = -2.380, ADX = 36.722) as it has been on the decline since October 4th. This selling sequence has stopped exactly at the bottom of the Channel Up pattern, with the 1D MA200 holding precisely for five straight days. As long as it holds, it is a buy signal and we are targeting the R1 level (TP = 375.00). If it breaks and closes the 1D candle under it, sell and target the S2 level (TP = 335.60). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
by InvestingScope
USDHUF Bearish leg within a Channel Up.The USDHUF pair is trading within a Channel Up pattern, currently extending the bearish leg after a Higher Low on Resistance 1 (375.600). The previous bearish leg hit the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and then rebounded, so we are expecting a similar development. As long as the pair is closing the 1D candles above the 1D MA50, we will be bullish, targeting Resistance 2 (381.3500) as part of the next Higher High. If it closes below the 1D MA50, we will take the loss and counter with a sell position, targeting 345.700 (Support 2). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
by TradingShot
1
Mirror level increases USD chances for a reboundFor the last nine months, USD/HUF has been in a downtrend erasing all gains made last year. However, I believe it could change in the second half of the year. The currency pair reached the key support level of 340 HUF per USD in April. Since then the USD price has been anchored to the level. Before the spring of 2022, the level of 350 was the key resistance level, the pair knocked on the level in April 2020 and March 2021 (the next month it broke through). This year it is the floor or the mirror level (i.d., the level that previously played the opposite role for the price). By the way, the same mirror-level case with EUR, only the floor is different, it is 370 HUF for EUR. It is more robust than the dollar one. It has prevented four forint deterioration attempts. I think there is a little chance that the USD will break through the support, but a high chance that it will rebound to the first target of 380. On the daily chart, I can estimate that consolidation has done most of its way and the USD bounce may start during the month. But on the weekly and monthly charts, the consolidation may be prolonged and take 4-5 additional months. In case, I am mistaken and the floor brokes, the forint would grow to 320 until this October. From the macroeconomic perspective, my outlook is mixed negative for forint. On one hand, Hungary has the highest rate in the EU, making short of forint to USD or EUR an expensive position. The interest rate is 13%. On the other hand, the rate has been increased to combat high double-digit inflation, which is also the highest in the EU, in the previous autumn, the national bank launched a new one-day deposit rate ECONOMICS:HUINTR . Currently, it is 16%, but a few months ago was 18%. The high deposit rate has motivated private banks to deposit their funds in the national bank. The national bank previously incorporated quantitive easing and bought assets in its portfolio, but nowadays experiences severe capital stress. Due to a decrease in the portfolio and expensive interest costs coming from the expensive deposit rate, its equity has shrunk and become negative! According to EU laws, the Hungarian government must capitalize the bank in 2024. It will cost around 0.5% of countries GDP. News agencies suppose the government will ask the ECB to suspend this regulation and postpone the national bank recapitalization. It happens on the background of a permanent government deficit between 4-6% ECONOMICS:HUGBP . This year they expect around 4%. The economy is in stagflation, and GDP has contracted for the consecutive quarters ECONOMICS:HUGDPQQ . Hungarian consumer is under the pressure of high inflation that devalued their income resulting in the retail sales collapse ECONOMICS:HURSYY . The economic crisis will decrease government incomes ECONOMICS:HUGR , making it impossible to shorten the government deficit, so Hungary will again become active as a borrower ECONOMICS:HUGDG . The high interest rate has affected the money supply. The monetary base ECONOMICS:HUM0 has doubled over the last ten months, while the money supply ECONOMICS:HUM2 has noticeably contracted in real and nominal terms in the amount of 6%, that for the current fiat economy is a rare event. I expect a gradual decrease in the national bank deposit rate. It would induce credit activity and money supply growth and monetary base reduction. An additional supporter of HUF's strength is current account recovery. Hungary is heavily dependent on fossil fuels import. This year TTF ICEEUR:TFM1! drop helps to drastically decrease natural gas expenditures and reduce HUF conversion to foreign currencies. It could save about 5% of countries GDP. Instead of 8% of the current account deficit ECONOMICS:HUCAG , the country would have 3%. Tight relations with the EU, and partly frozen EU funds also negatively affect on Hungarian economy and forint perspectives. Non-EU possible market-moving events: There is only one important: the American economy and the Fed ECONOMICS:USINTR interest rate. American money supply ECONOMICS:USM2 shrinkage may ignite a recession this year, forcing the Fed to decrease the rate. Undoubtedly, the recession would become a shock for the Hungarian economy and forint. I doubt that a drop in the Fed rate and widening interest rate difference will support forint in a short time. Conversely, the shock would drive risk aversion from the developing markets and Hungary, as well as, creating waves of chaotic forint sales. The contraction of the American economy would also motivate the national bank of Hungary to cut its rates critically supporting forint short-sellers activity. The minor risk is natural gas deliveries ECONOMICS:HUNGI from Russia. If something happens with the Ukrainian gas pipeline, the Hungarian economy will suffer, creating forint vulnerable to the consequences. In this case, the Turkish stream may be a backup transportation route for Hungary.
Long
by Nikita_Kalinin
3
USD/TRY is to jump in 2023?For the last months, the Turkish lira has been traded near the all-time lows against USD. I think that demand for the lira would shift soon, and it would trigger a breakout of resistance of 18.7 with the first psychological price target of TRY 20 for 1 USD with consolidation near 25 in the second half of the year. In terms of technical analysis, I do not see any compelling things on the USD/TRY chart. Therefore, I decided to look at an exotic currency pair with TRY on one side. I have taken Hungarian forint or HUF. Comparing HUF with USD or EUR , we can say, it is a weak currency that has constantly lost its value for the last 20 years. However, against the weakest TRY, HUF is a king. On the TRY/HUF chart, I see an opportunity to breakout of support of HUF 18.4 for TRY until the end of the year. The first target could be 14 with the chance to drop to 10. Keeping in mind that HUF is a weak currency that is now in a temporary good shape against the world currencies, such a possible forint strengthening against the lira could happen only if the latter drop to the majors. If TRY/HUF is to be 14, and USDHUF is near its essential middle-term resistance of 380. It means USDTRY would be around 27,14. If TRY/HUF reaches 10, USDTRY would be 38. With a magical macroeconomic policy in Turkey, including jumping inflation , artificially low-interest rates in Turkey , and raising interest rates in USD, EUR, and Erdogan's elections in June (and budget spending increase), it doesn't seem impossible to me.
Long
by Nikita_Kalinin
USD/HUF - (massive) Long; Highest conviction trade since 2020!This is a no-holds-bared, unmitigated, lock-and-load - and do it now! -, scenario. It does not get any easier than this, not even in the EUR/USD. The Hungarian Forint is staring at a massacre, with immediate effect. (... despite the fact that I applaud Victor Orban, the Hungarian Prime. Nevertheless, he has nothing left to work with. Simultaneously, he (still) is public enemy #1 for the EU - as member states go -, as well as in the eyes of the Biden administration. Now, the only remaining friendly country to Hungary, in Europe, is the Vatican. Orban courageously fought the good fight, all along, but, at least economically: "It's been nice signing with you Koko but ..." - It's over.) p.s. Everything the western media had been spewing about Orban for the past 12 years lacks a single iota of truth. - Bet on it! The guy won 3 democratic elections with 2/3 majority which, even the communist slime-run EU, was forced to admit. I will forgo the long version here and provide in lead words what matters here; - Hungary is a tiny economy (10 million people), one of the smallest EU members; (IBordering with Ukraine and taking in the second largest number of Ukrainian refugees - after Poland - while the Kyiv continues to prosecute it's large, Hungarian minority.) - They built the first wall on their southern border, which the EU never paid for - as they remain obligated to do so but likely never will; - Hungary is 72% agricultural, lacking any and all energy (or other, primary) resources. E.g. It is 100% dependent on Russian energy - regardless how it gets there (indirectly from Russia at a major markup, very likely in the near future.) - Hungary categorically refuses to support the EU madness or to go along with US demands to join the fight for the Ukraine ; (Orban is no friend of Putin but he is also unwilling to crater Hungary's economy on a US/EU whim.) - The Hungarian National Bank recently spent a significant portion of it's reserves to buy gold. The unfolding USD rally will likely temper any related enthusiasm; - The EU is currently (punitively) the portion of EU funds due to Hungary for fiscal 2023; -The Biden administration recently made it a point to go after Hungary (Orban specifically) "to enhance a regime change". (Wasn't that illegal, at least on paper? ...) - Sunday's State of the Union by Orban is a potential call to arms in the West. (One could write a book but) Long story short: The combined Western Alliance is about to lean into Hungary which is most unlikely to result in any economic, monetary or any other, miscellaneous national - or monetary - benefits. Bottom line: There is blood in the water here so, start taking very big bites! - Long!
Long
by Nemo_Confidat
35
USDHUF breakout after retrace to resistance zone - am I correct?Hey guys, I'm new here, but just wanted to confirm some of my recently learned knowledge. Based on the first kiss (Naked Forex) principle, I went back on the charts and found this pattern on US dollar v Hungarian Forint. I noticed that between the 28th of April and the 18th of May, this pair was consolidating. A very strong support and resistance zone was created with a few touches at the top and bottom of the zone. When it finally broke out, you could see it touched (last kissed) the top of the zone, and then continued the uptrend, like the first fakeout made it seem to be. Don't know how deep the last kiss can be in the zone, but I think this is kinda the right signal for a long. (Which I didn't take, because I retraced it in the past) Do you guys agree? And if not, what could I have missed that could be of importance in my next trades? Thanks! Jasper
Long
by JBod03
1
USDHUF // correction may endAfter yesterday's FED contribution, price has finished a 1-2-3 wave right into the previous south breakout on the daily, meaning the correction may end here, and price can first make a correction of the correction, then long trend may resume and in this case, further target zones become valid. Trade safe! ⚪️⚫️ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANYWAY, a lot of Qs about the direction of the price. But it doesn't matter. WE JUST REACT! Remember that trading is a business. SIZE your TRADES according to your risk aversion! ----------------------------------------------------------
Long
by TheMarketFlow
3
USDHUF // waiting for waves to show directionHi✋🏽 USDHUF made a quick correction. Many traders see such a move as a turn, but remember: until the weekly pivot (red zone) is broken, this market is in a long trend. I've marked the long trigger zone that, at the moment, shows the level that, if taken back by the buyers, I go long. What do you think??? Trade safe! ⚪️⚫️ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANYWAY, a lot of Qs about the direction of the price. But it doesn't matter. I JUST REACT! Thanks for reading my analysis!🤘🏽 Remember that trading is a business. SIZE your TRADES according to your risk aversion! ----------------------------------------------------------
by TheMarketFlow
2
USDHUF // correction scenariosHi✋🏽 A clear start of the correction made (part of) its first impulse wave that tested a nice north breakout on H4. I expect a correction from here and another wave down where the target is a Daily north breakout. Important to know that imho the steepness of the curve doesn't matter, we are in the CORRECTION. It means, R/R ratios are not as favorable as in an impulse wave in the direction of the main trend on the W/D timeframes. However, we are possibly in a local stop of the uptrend that may resume any time. What do you think??? Trade safe! ⚪️⚫️ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANYWAY, a lot of Qs about the direction of the price. But it doesn't matter. I JUST REACT! Thanks for reading my analysis!🤘🏽 Remember that trading is a business. SIZE your TRADES according to your risk aversion! ----------------------------------------------------------
by TheMarketFlow
3