USD HUF breaking out now Long - Wednesday 23 October 24
I noticed this breaking out a few hours ago and I took a Long position.
It pulled back and went quiet for a while with little volume. But the strong way it broke out I figured closer to the New York session there will be more traders onto this.
Daily and weekly chart for where price is headed next.
Usdhufanalysis
USDHUF - Short IdeaPolitical reasons are manipulating the USDHUF currency pair until there is a final agreement between Hungary and the European Union between support for Ukraine and while Hungary is delaying the approval of Sweden's accession to NATO. As soon as both political issues are resolved, and they certainly will be in the near future, the Hungarian forint will gain momentum. Let's wait for the best price of USDHUF to enter sell positions.
USDHUF Exotic Long !Here in this Educational Analysis we have a series of consecutive signals both long and short . Last but not least a bottom fishing program or in a more technical term a 3 consecutive bearish series BFP signal indicates that a trend reversal to the SMA20 resistance level is on the way
USD/HUF - (massive) Long; Highest conviction trade since 2020!This is a no-holds-bared, unmitigated, lock-and-load - and do it now! -, scenario. It does not get any easier than this, not even in the EUR/USD.
The Hungarian Forint is staring at a massacre, with immediate effect.
(... despite the fact that I applaud Victor Orban, the Hungarian Prime. Nevertheless, he has nothing left to work with. Simultaneously, he (still) is public enemy #1 for the EU - as member states go -, as well as in the eyes of the Biden administration. Now, the only remaining friendly country to Hungary, in Europe, is the Vatican. Orban courageously fought the good fight, all along, but, at least economically: "It's been nice signing with you Koko but ..." - It's over.)
p.s. Everything the western media had been spewing about Orban for the past 12 years lacks a single iota of truth. - Bet on it! The guy won 3 democratic elections with 2/3 majority which, even the communist slime-run EU, was forced to admit.
I will forgo the long version here and provide in lead words what matters here;
- Hungary is a tiny economy (10 million people), one of the smallest EU members; (IBordering with Ukraine and taking in the second largest number of Ukrainian refugees - after Poland - while the Kyiv continues to prosecute it's large, Hungarian minority.)
- They built the first wall on their southern border, which the EU never paid for - as they remain obligated to do so but likely never will;
- Hungary is 72% agricultural, lacking any and all energy (or other, primary) resources. E.g. It is 100% dependent on Russian energy - regardless how it gets there (indirectly from Russia at a major markup, very likely in the near future.)
- Hungary categorically refuses to support the EU madness or to go along with US demands to join the fight for the Ukraine ; (Orban is no friend of Putin but he is also unwilling to crater Hungary's economy on a US/EU whim.)
- The Hungarian National Bank recently spent a significant portion of it's reserves to buy gold. The unfolding USD rally will likely temper any related enthusiasm;
- The EU is currently (punitively) the portion of EU funds due to Hungary for fiscal 2023;
-The Biden administration recently made it a point to go after Hungary (Orban specifically) "to enhance a regime change". (Wasn't that illegal, at least on paper? ...)
- Sunday's State of the Union by Orban is a potential call to arms in the West.
(One could write a book but) Long story short: The combined Western Alliance is about to lean into Hungary which is most unlikely to result in any economic, monetary or any other, miscellaneous national - or monetary - benefits.
Bottom line: There is blood in the water here so, start taking very big bites! - Long!
USDHUF - How to play the dollar long ?One vehicle how you can short or long the dollar is the USDHUF.
The USDHUF mirrors the DXY moves pretty well.
Though watching the FIB retracement we are at no man's land : the Fibonacci 61,8% is still 10 HUF away:
we have important levels at 354.738, 352.993, and 351.248.
I don't think price will break these levels at the first try. If we can bounce from here price will tag the 50 EMA and 200 EMA at 378-380.
USDHUF - Silver MedalAs you might know Hungary is at the 2nd place in Covid vaccination in Europe.
As we reached the magic 50% - rate of the vaccinated people in the population- the USDHUF broke and important level : 290 .
It looks now we printed an intermediate bottom - or at least a DCL - and now as the dollar is coming out of its DCL the USDHUF will rally again.
Indicators:
MACD, TSI crossing over , RSI left the oversold territory.
USDHUF technically based forecast
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💡 USDHUF technicaly based idea, we can see price is bounce from bottom trend line, candels formation is good bulish, technicaly indicators showing we can expect higher push up in price exepcting push till top trend line.
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