USD/HUF - (massive) Long; Highest conviction trade since 2020!This is a no-holds-bared, unmitigated, lock-and-load - and do it now! -, scenario. It does not get any easier than this, not even in the EUR/USD.
The Hungarian Forint is staring at a massacre, with immediate effect.
(... despite the fact that I applaud Victor Orban, the Hungarian Prime. Nevertheless, he has nothing left to work with. Simultaneously, he (still) is public enemy #1 for the EU - as member states go -, as well as in the eyes of the Biden administration. Now, the only remaining friendly country to Hungary, in Europe, is the Vatican. Orban courageously fought the good fight, all along, but, at least economically: "It's been nice signing with you Koko but ..." - It's over.)
p.s. Everything the western media had been spewing about Orban for the past 12 years lacks a single iota of truth. - Bet on it! The guy won 3 democratic elections with 2/3 majority which, even the communist slime-run EU, was forced to admit.
I will forgo the long version here and provide in lead words what matters here;
- Hungary is a tiny economy (10 million people), one of the smallest EU members; (IBordering with Ukraine and taking in the second largest number of Ukrainian refugees - after Poland - while the Kyiv continues to prosecute it's large, Hungarian minority.)
- They built the first wall on their southern border, which the EU never paid for - as they remain obligated to do so but likely never will;
- Hungary is 72% agricultural, lacking any and all energy (or other, primary) resources. E.g. It is 100% dependent on Russian energy - regardless how it gets there (indirectly from Russia at a major markup, very likely in the near future.)
- Hungary categorically refuses to support the EU madness or to go along with US demands to join the fight for the Ukraine ; (Orban is no friend of Putin but he is also unwilling to crater Hungary's economy on a US/EU whim.)
- The Hungarian National Bank recently spent a significant portion of it's reserves to buy gold. The unfolding USD rally will likely temper any related enthusiasm;
- The EU is currently (punitively) the portion of EU funds due to Hungary for fiscal 2023;
-The Biden administration recently made it a point to go after Hungary (Orban specifically) "to enhance a regime change". (Wasn't that illegal, at least on paper? ...)
- Sunday's State of the Union by Orban is a potential call to arms in the West.
(One could write a book but) Long story short: The combined Western Alliance is about to lean into Hungary which is most unlikely to result in any economic, monetary or any other, miscellaneous national - or monetary - benefits.
Bottom line: There is blood in the water here so, start taking very big bites! - Long!
