Usdindex!!
EURUSD BACK AT KEY HIGHSEURUSD is back into the key highs, the Fibonacci retracement tool shows that price
is currently testing the 61.8 fib. If the 4hr timeframe finds support here and produces
bullish price action we can look for a long opportunity back into the highs with extended
targets of the 127.2 fib extension.
USD TO CONTINUE LOWER?The USD Index has formed new lows and we expected the price to pullback into them before seeing
another move. Looking at the market technically the Fibonacci retracement tool has highlighted
a key zone between the lows and 50% fib as resistance. If we see bearish price action here we could
look for short opportunities into the next demand zone.
USD INDEX Analysis 30/6/19H4 chart
D1 chart
29/6/19
Weekly still bullish trend until price break the weekly support line (black), candle close doji, potential higher retracement for daily.
Daily bearish trend, currently rebounce from Daily support.
H4 sideway movement after big bearish movement & retrace from daily support area.
BIAS still bearish movement BUT short term price stalling.
BIG NEWS : G20 meeting & 1st week OPEC
FED's Easing Cycle Has Opened Path for DXY To HIT 93.00 Level !For the last several months we have seen the USD rise against all major currencies and while this was happening we were technically starting to get warning signs of BEARISH DIVERGENCE in the RSI! Fundamentally the US Economy remained strong back then with little worries regarding the trade war and geopolitical issues.
The markets thought that the economy wont be impacted by the trade war in a long run as a trade deal could be reached soon but its been months and the saga still goes on. The US economic data has been under achieving and the FED instead of raising rates to a possible two times this year has switched its course to cutting them. A MAJOR DOVISH SWITCH!
As this happened, the USD Index fell from the highs and has now comfortably broken the triangle's lower trendline and the weekly price has also closed below the EMA 50. All this indicates a strong trend switch is now in play and we could see the price potentially drop towards 93.00 where the next trendline is present. 93.00 also is a concrete support drawn from the monthly charts which has been respected on numerous occasions.
As the time goes, the picture will be more clear and clear but one thing is clear, FED's easing cycle will surely be the main driver for DXY downfall to 93.00!
Many predicted that the yellow metal will rise this year and boy they were not wrong as many major central banks have switched to easing cycle. Should the FED keep easing to support the economy we could see the yellow metal reach new highs and SAFEHAVEN FX currencies such CHF and JPY Appreciate against other currencies.
USDCHF FINDS SHORT-TERM SUPPORTPrice has been down trending on USDCHF nicely and we expect this to continue however
the price is currently finding support at the key lows. If we see a daily bullish close here we
can expect the price to pull back into the lows before seeing the trend continue.
VIDEO ANALYSIS: EURUSD KEY SUPPLY AND DEMAND ZONES In this video update, we take a look at EURUSD and USD Index to continue looking for the USD weakness.
Price on the USD Index has recently tested 96.00 which could see some buyers step back in short-term into
the previous structure lows. EURUSD has broken higher and is heading towards a key supply zone where we
could see price retrace into the key highs before going long.
USDNOK TO FALL ON HIGHER OIL PRICESWe recently discussed a long opportunity on OIL and as prices push higher we
could look to buy the Norwegian Krona. The USDNOK has formed a lower low on
the daily timeframe and could head towards the key weekly demand zone.
We will be looking for retracements into key resistance zone for short opportunities.
FED DOVISH TONE PRICED IN...WHAT WILL HAPPEN TO THE USD?In this video update, we discuss the two scenarios ahead of this meeting and what could
happen if the Fed discuss further cuts in the future or if they downplay the need to cut rates going forward.
Inflationary data suggest a cut is likely but will FED chair Powell want to open the flood gates for the USD bears.
We are not so sure...
USD INDEX HOLDING AT 97.60The USD Index is currently testing the key double top neckline and 38.2 fib. We expected
the price to test reject this zone from a technical point of view and if the daily chart
closes below this level we could see a continued sell-off. However, the FOMC is set to
announce rates and all eyes will be on the Fed's next steps. If they are dovish and mention
more than one rate cut through 2019 then we could expect a large sell-off.
RETAIL SALES REVIVE THE USDYesterday we spoke about the USD remaining bearish and despite our overall view remaining the same,
the retail sales data has driven the USD Index back above the key 97.30 resistance. We may see another
rally back into the $98.00 highs where price could form a triple top pattern before breaking lower.
The retail sales for the month of may recorded an increase from 0.3% to 0.5% from the previous month.
This data alone has increased the USD across the board.
VIDEO ANALYSIS: GOLD BREAKS $1350.00- CAN PRICE CLOSE ABOVE?Gold has recently tested the $1350.00 resistance and is currently rejected.
The recent CoT reports highlighted an increase in short contracts if price
closed below this key resistance we could see a short-term fall in price.
USD REMAINS BEARISHLooking at the DXY price is approaching the key lows around 97.30. If price tests this
area we could see some weakness re-enter the market. Recently the USD has shrugged
off recent poor data showing some buyers are still willing to prop the USD up.
However, we don't expect this to last as long as price can reject the key lows.
GBPUSD INVERSE HEAD & SHOULDERSGBPUSD remains at the key demand zone, The 4hr timeframe is forming an inverse head
and shoulders pattern with the neckline sitting at 1.2748. If price breaks above and closes
above this level we could expect the price to continue higher.
EURUSD CONSOLIDATION BREAK-OUTEURUSD is currently consolidating on the 4hr timeframe. With our USD short bias,
we expect this market to continue to rise. We will be looking for a breakout of the trendline
resistance before looking for long opportunities on this pair.
VIDEO ANALYSIS: USDCAD BREAKS LONG TERM WEDGEIn this video update, we take a look at USDCAD as the price has broken through longer-term trendline support.
Recently we saw USD weakness come into play and the Canadian Dollar benefitted massively. We expect this
decline to continue and a re-test of 1.3300 will be ideal in order to look for further shorting opportunities.
NZDUSD 0.6700 BY THE END OF THE WEEKIn this video update, we take a look at NZDUSD as we expect the price to test the 0.6700 resistance.
The CoT reports highlighted an increase in long contracts this week showing us the commercials are happy
to buy at these levels. The 4hr timeframe has highlighted a minor demand zone around 0.6600 where the
price could find buyers.
DOW JONES MOVING AVERAGES CROSSThe Dow Jones has changed cycle on the 4hr timeframe. Looking for the price to retrace
back into the moving averages for further long opportunities into the key resistance.
USDCAD TO REMAIN IN THE RANGE?USDCAD has remained in the range for some time now as USD remains weak and so does CAD.
The range is capped by the key low and the key high and if the price remains in the range we can
expect to see the highs tested again. If the USD index breaks the weekly trendline however
we could see a break of the range lower and move back to 1.3300.
EURUSD LONGS ABOVE 1.1215EURUSD is the inverse of the USD Index, and with price finding resistance, EURUSD has
found support at 1.1126. The daily highs at 1.1215 will need to be broken and closed above
before seeing sustained buying re-enter the market. The USD falling will likely see a change in
trend here. Wait for the break and re-test of these highs for further long opportunities.
USD WILL FALL IF PRICE GETS BELOW $97.50Last week we looked at the USD heading to the key highs before falling again. The US
consumer sentiment missed expectations last week and frightened investors into thinking
the Fed may have to take action. The key daily lows currently sit at $97.50, a break and close
below the lows we will see USD drop to the weekly trendline support.
VIDEO ANALYSIS: NZDUSD TRADE UPDATE AND POSSIBLE ADD IN TRADESIn this video update, we are taking a look at NZDUSD as the price is breaking into new highs on the daily
timeframe. Now that price is breaking higher we can look for potential add in trades on the lower timeframes.
We already hold a position on the daily timeframe from the initial bullish engulfing candle. We are expecting
price to test the April highs around 0.6700.
