RETAIL SALES REVIVE THE USDYesterday we spoke about the USD remaining bearish and despite our overall view remaining the same,
the retail sales data has driven the USD Index back above the key 97.30 resistance. We may see another
rally back into the $98.00 highs where price could form a triple top pattern before breaking lower.
The retail sales for the month of may recorded an increase from 0.3% to 0.5% from the previous month.
This data alone has increased the USD across the board.
Usdindex!!
USD REMAINS BEARISHLooking at the DXY price is approaching the key lows around 97.30. If price tests this
area we could see some weakness re-enter the market. Recently the USD has shrugged
off recent poor data showing some buyers are still willing to prop the USD up.
However, we don't expect this to last as long as price can reject the key lows.
VIDEO ANALYSIS: USDCAD BREAKS LONG TERM WEDGEIn this video update, we take a look at USDCAD as the price has broken through longer-term trendline support.
Recently we saw USD weakness come into play and the Canadian Dollar benefitted massively. We expect this
decline to continue and a re-test of 1.3300 will be ideal in order to look for further shorting opportunities.
NZDUSD 0.6700 BY THE END OF THE WEEKIn this video update, we take a look at NZDUSD as we expect the price to test the 0.6700 resistance.
The CoT reports highlighted an increase in long contracts this week showing us the commercials are happy
to buy at these levels. The 4hr timeframe has highlighted a minor demand zone around 0.6600 where the
price could find buyers.
USDCAD TO REMAIN IN THE RANGE?USDCAD has remained in the range for some time now as USD remains weak and so does CAD.
The range is capped by the key low and the key high and if the price remains in the range we can
expect to see the highs tested again. If the USD index breaks the weekly trendline however
we could see a break of the range lower and move back to 1.3300.
EURUSD LONGS ABOVE 1.1215EURUSD is the inverse of the USD Index, and with price finding resistance, EURUSD has
found support at 1.1126. The daily highs at 1.1215 will need to be broken and closed above
before seeing sustained buying re-enter the market. The USD falling will likely see a change in
trend here. Wait for the break and re-test of these highs for further long opportunities.
USD WILL FALL IF PRICE GETS BELOW $97.50Last week we looked at the USD heading to the key highs before falling again. The US
consumer sentiment missed expectations last week and frightened investors into thinking
the Fed may have to take action. The key daily lows currently sit at $97.50, a break and close
below the lows we will see USD drop to the weekly trendline support.
VIDEO ANALYSIS: NZDUSD TRADE UPDATE AND POSSIBLE ADD IN TRADESIn this video update, we are taking a look at NZDUSD as the price is breaking into new highs on the daily
timeframe. Now that price is breaking higher we can look for potential add in trades on the lower timeframes.
We already hold a position on the daily timeframe from the initial bullish engulfing candle. We are expecting
price to test the April highs around 0.6700.
DXY FINALLY FALLSThe DXY has started to fall again as the US consumer price index fell short of expectations.
This move has been highly anticipated and we could start to see a shift in USD sentiment
if we break the current daily lows at 97.55. A close below these lows will suggest
that the USD could continue to fall further.
Dollar Index upswings unhurtBy Andria Pichidi - May 30, 2019
The USDIndex slipped slightly following the mix of data, where Q1 GDP came in slightly better than consensus, jobless claims were slightly higher, and the trade deficit was wider than expected. EURUSD edged over 1.1140 from 1.1135, while USDJPY was fractionally lower at 109.65 from over 109.70. Equity futures continue to indicate a moderately higher Wall Street open, while yields were little changed.
US initial jobless claims rose 3k to 215k in the week ended May 25 after holding steady at 212k in the May 18 week (revised from 211k), and tumbling 16k to 212k in the week before that.
US Q1 GDP growth was fractionally revised down to a 3.1% pace, beating forecasts, after posting a better than expected 3.2% gain in the Advance report. Remember, Q4 posted a 2.2% clip, with Q3 up 3.4%. For Q1, consumption was bumped up to 1.3% versus 1.2% initially. Fixed investment was nudged down to 1.0% from 1.5%, with nonresidential spending at a 2.3% rate from 2.7%, while residential spending was knocked down to -3.5% from -2.8%. Government consumption was revised up to 2.5% versus 2.4% previously. Inventories contributed $28.7 bln versus $31.6 bln. Net exports added $52.1 bln from $56.4 bln. The PCE price index slipped to 0.8% versus 0.9%. The core rate was 1.0%, down from 1.3%.
The USDIndex remains above the 98.00 barrier for the day, while it is holding strongly, close to year high of 98.24. The short term outlook has been denominated today with consolidation, however the overall picture remains on track with the upwards channel seen the past 2 months. The asset is currently set above 20-, 50- and 200-day SMA, with the 2nd one providing a strong Support in the near term future.
The intraday RSI has flattened at 63 due to the consolidation moves seen today, however in the higher timeframe continues to point to the upside. Interestingly, MACD lines in the near and long term formed a bullish cross, suggesting the continuation of the positive momentum. Hence a break of last week’s high could open the way towards the next barrier at the 99.00 Resistance level seen since May 2017. Support holds at the 20-day SMA at 97.50, however only a break of the 50-day SMA could develop concerns over the continuation of the up-channel.
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Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
VIDEO ANALYSIS: EURUSD BOUNCES...In this video update, we take a look at EURUSD as price reacts from the key lows yet again.
This is due to a sell-off in the USD as the USD index reacts from the weekly highs. This
current price action suggests we could be forming a double bottom pattern.
If the daily candle does close bullish look for short-term long positions into the trendline resistance.
USD index Approaching Resistance, Prepare For A Reversal
USD index is approaching its resistance at 7.055(61.8% Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing high resistance) where it is expected to reverse down to its support at 7.006(61.8% Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement).
Stochastic (89, 5, 3) is approaching its resistance at 96% where a corresponding reversal is expected.
VIDEO ANALYSIS: USDCHF SHORT UPDATEIn this video update, we take a look at USDCHF as we are anticipating the market to fall further.
The CoT signal remains and we could see further buying of Swiss Francs. USDCHF has retraced to the
61.8 Fib and rejected. This could offer us a short opportunity to the key demand zone.
USD index near key resistance, potential drop!
USD index is approaching its resistance at 7.020(61.8% Fibonacci extension , 61.8% Fibonacci retracement , horizontal swing high resistance) where it is expected to reverse down to its support at 6.973(61.8% Fibonacci extension *2, horizontal swing low support).
Stochastic (55, 5, 3) is approaching its resistance at 96% where a corresponding reversal is expected.
VIDEO ANALYSIS: USD BREAK OUT PENDINGIn this video update, we take a look at the USD INDEX in order to understand the current situation.
We feel that the USD is holding up at the moment due to the risk-off sentiment in the market.
Technically the price remains in a consolidation pattern and if we see price take out $97.00
we could expect a larger sell-off.
USD index Approaching Resistance, Prepare For A Reversal
USD index is approaching its resistance at 7.016(61.8% Fibonacci extension, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing high resistance) where it is expected to reverse down to its support at 6.973(61.8% Fibonacci extension *2, horizontal swing low support).
Stochastic (55, 5, 3) is approaching its resistance at 96% where a corresponding reversal is expected.