Usdindex!!
USDCHF: Time for a retracement soon ?The usdchf hit a low of 0.9540 before retracing to 0.9960 . That's a whopping 460 pip of retracement.
Thus what's the revelation? U can never be too sure about the extent of how much a currency pair would retrace and if (surprise surprise) it could eventually even start an uptrend on its own.
Such is the reality. The analysis is as good as it gets at the point of time but making provisions for different scenarios to play out and all the stop checks the trader has put in place to ensure that the analysis is still on track is essential for survival in any market.
Thus in the case of the usdchf, with key levels taken out at 0.9890 and 0.9850 it actually opens the door to lower supports at 0.9790 and 0.97 being revisited again.
However, with the longer term trendline at 0.97 holding at the moment, this is at best a retracement to Revelation Trading at the moment.
We ultimately trade into the unknown and as usual the market will show us where it eventually wants to go.
EURUSD A Turn of Tides A Eurusd short was attempted at the break of 1.1450 which was shortlived as it has chosen to reverse its original course of action.
At the moment as long as prices maintain above 1.16 more upside is expected with a probable target of 1.1750
Any break below 1.1540 would be a warning sign to reassess all long positions initiated.
THE PRODUCER PRICE INDEX AND THE MARKETSThe Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the average change over time in the selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. In other words, the PPI measures the prices offered to manufacturers of goods and services, in contrast to the CPI which measures the prices consumers (end-users) pay to obtain the good or service. The prices included in the PPI measure the first commercial transaction for products and services. This was the main reason for compiling such an Index in the first place, i.e. to measure price changes in goods sold in primary markets before they reached the final stage of production at the retail market level. Overall, the PPI is another indicator of the purchasing power of money and is an important tool in the design and conduct of monetary and fiscal policy.
As you can guess, an increase in the PPI would signal that sellers are obtaining higher prices for their products and services and as a result, producers have either chosen to increase their price margins or they are witnessing higher demand for their products and services. To confirm which of the two holds we need to observe the CPI inflation over the past months. If the CPI inflation is in line with the PPI inflation, then we can confirm that price increases are due to higher demand and not because of higher margins.
Even in the case of higher margins, the PPI serves an important cause: if producer prices have increased due to higher margins then we can expect that CPI prices (i.e consumer prices) will also be increasing in the future. Hence, the PPI can also serve as a proxy of future inflation.
The rationale in regard to how the PPI affects stock and currency markets is similar to the usual CPI. If the PPI figure is higher than expected then firms are expected to generate higher profits, hence the stock market should rise. In contrast, if the PPI is lower than expected, the stock market should drop. Regarding the stock market, if the currency market expects a high PPI growth rate, then the currency should depreciate. Otherwise, if PPI is higher than expected and abides with the CPI path the currency should rise. Note though that the reactions should be much smaller compared to CPI ones, for the simple reason that the PPI is viewed as a precursor of the CPI.
This prediction is supported by the market behaviour on September 12, 2018. The PPI came out less than expected, at 2.3%, compared to expectations of 2.7%. This prompted a negative reaction in the FX market, as the Dollar Index dropped by 5 pips. Similarly, the USA500 also dropped by 1 point on the announcement. While the market moved in the expected direction, the price volatility was not as large as in the CPI case.
DR. Nektarios Michail
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
$EURUSD | Updated Long Term AnalysisHello Traders,
In this chart, I have defined Monthly and Weekly Support and Resistance Zones. The reason I define the time frame of S&R is because the higher time frames hold more strength. The reason for this is because there are larger institutional players in the markets at these levels and in some cases, governments and central banks.
With that said, here are the steps my model has outlined for this market:
1. A pullback up to test the Weekly Resistance Zone (1.22466-1.23647). This move is a correction of the move down to the Monthly Support Zone.
2. A continuation of the move down to the Monthly Support Zone (1.10223-1.07625). This move is a correction of the move up starting in Jan 2017.
3. Once the Monthly Support Zone is tested, the EUR will continue its move up beyond the Weekly Resistance Zone and on its way to TG 1-4 outlined on the chart. These targets are defined on a Monthly Time Frame.
Please refer to the related chart below for a closer look at this current move down.
Best
US Dollar Index At Support LevelFirst let's start by looking at the monthly candle. USD Index lost over 76% of its gains from the low 95.50. Although the month is not over, there's a question to be made whether USD peaked @ 97.00 level. As we look at the weekly timeframe, USD index put in a shooting star for the week prior, also what I considered a dark cloud cover pattern. It's tough to say what this week entail for US Dollar, or even next week. But unless we see a major bull run on these next few days of this week, it is bearish. Sell on every rise! - just my opinion.
Happy Trading, folks!
Cheers!
DXY, Pullback !W1:
- Tendency: Upward
- Above support
- Weakening
- Reversal candle W1
--> Pullback
D1:
- Structure: uptrend
- Tendency: Downward
- Double bearish candle at Support Daily
IF:
- Break down and confirmation --> Move down
Please support the setup with your likes, comments and by following on TradingView.
Thanks
DXY, Pullback !W1:
- Tendency: Upward
- Above support
- Weakening
- Reversal candle W1
--> Pullback
D1:
- Structure: uptrend
- Tendency: Downward
- Double bearish candle at Support Daily
IF:
- Break down and confirmation --> Move down
Please support the setup with your likes, comments and by following on TradingView.
Thanks
Talk about goldThese days the seizure has grown in the global market
It's not easy to look at market behaviors
But traders should deal with caution in global markets
According to my predictions
I was expecting this That's the price of golden glove Under $ 1,200 And many did not believe
In this price range There may be strange things
According to the psychology of gold prices in the global market
There is no definite opinion
My theory is these days for the price of gold in the world
In August 2018 gold be move range in the price 1175 to 1150 to swing
But traders should wait for next month in september
Considering the limit loss
Expecting that
if gold break down price of 1150 its going for two month or one month under 1100
but if gold support from 1150 expect gold a little rising with slow time and month to 1200 and 1300
However, traders must be in a deal on condition that they comply with the limitation
i also trying more publishing about gold update
be good luck
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USD Breaks Above Monthly TrendlineTo start the month of August, our expectation was for the King Dollar to retest the highs before moving lower. That, however, wasn't the case as USD closed above the monthly downtrend line. If you have been following this analysis for a few weeks back, price levels and trend line hasn't changed a bit (except for a couple add-ons - update). Looking even further into price momentum, it seems as if the break of the trend line offers fresh new leg to more bullish price action in days ahead.
Happy Trading, folks!
Cheers!
Selling Yearly Triple-Top For September USD Index Futures (DX)Wednesday’s FED Announcements have produced bullish action due to the statements issued. For the intermediate-term, the USD Index is likely to grind higher in anticipation of a hawkish FOMC Minutes release and upcoming September FED meeting.
The last three sessions have been big for September USD Index futures. Price has broken above topside resistance on the daily chart. For now, this market appears poised to test the yearly Triple-Top present in the 95.220-95.440 range.
Here is the short trade:
1)Entry: Sell 95.220
2) Stop Loss: 95.505
3)Profit Target: 94.935
4)Risk Vs Reward Ratio: 1/1