USD Index multiple Bullish signalsUSD Index looking very bullish. Double bottom formed on the weekly and monthly. Monthly MACD cross up about to happen, last time that happened about June 2018 we jumped over 15% from 89.229 to 102.992. If we have a jump 15% from last low it would take us to about 104.457. Double bottom target is about 96.50. RSI on the monthly going up over 48 about to cross up over 50. Bullish Hidden divergence on the MACD as well. All just possibilities.
Usdindex!!
US dollar index holds key support ahead of US inflation reportThe US dollar was falling ahead of the midterm elections in anticipation of a Republican Senate and / or House. As the Dems have performed better than expected, we have seen a reversal of these pre-emptive moves on the eve of the US inflation report.
Expectations are for core CPI to soften (slightly) - but what if it doesn't? Inflation elsewhere continues to surprise to the upside, and with the dollar holding above key support then the path of least resistance could be higher, unless Reps take 'da house' and Senate ad inflation comes in softer than expected.
DXY held above the 109.60 support zone and produced a 2-bar bullish reversal. A bullish divergence has also formed with the RSI (2). Bulls could seek to enter long on retracements within yesterday's candle and place a stop beneath the cycle lows and target the monthly pivot point. But I'd also be looking for evidence of a swing high up to ~112 - but for now the near-term bias remains bullish.
Well, well, well. What do we have here?Incredibles news in the last month or so surrounding CRYPTO and the stock market.
SBF on the run, exchanges being investigated, even government officials involved.
And what ticker constantly pops up? AMC Entertainment. Hidden shorts that have been burried inside shell companies that are now being exposed.
FTX doesn't have any AMC shares on the balance sheets, implying that they never held backed the tokenzied stocks as previously assured!
1.5 billion AMC shares, unaccounted for with crypto exchanges!!!
What else will be exposed?
Either way, we buy and hodl.
I can see light at the end of the tunnel.
STAY ZEN MY FRIENDS!
I will not fall as long as there is the specter of recession.The pandemic caused the dollar to strengthen, despite very low interest rates. There was a moment when it weakened, and that was at the very beginning, until January 2021. After that, it consolidated until June, and then only went up.
Why did the USD strengthen, even when rates were around 0%?
The crisis has the effect of strengthening the dollar, since all international payments and settlements are made in this currency. In addition, most of the loans that countries take out come from the US.
In other words: the demand for the USD was so high that some people began to wonder in 2021 whether there would be a shortage of this currency... For this reason, the FED could 'printed' $9-13 trillion, and the price went up anyway.
Something ends, something begins.
To make matters worse for all the countries that are borrowing massively in USD in chaos, the FED in March 2022 decided, to start raising interest rates, because inflation in the US started to go up.
Of course, the topic of inflation is thicker than just the massive printing. In 2022, Russia attacked Ukraine in February, starting a war that continues to this day. Conflicts are liked by oil, which soared to nearly $130 a barrel. This pushed up fuel prices, followed by the prices of almost every product in stores.
By February, the world had forgotten about the pandemic.
Late 70s and early 80s.
The whole situation is very similar to the late 1970s, when the Iranian Revolution was taking place, which created turmoil in the oil market. American oil then reached almost $40 a barrel. At that time, thanks to this situation and the Iran-Iraq war and the First Gulf War in the 1990s, the Soviets became the world's No. 1 oil producer.
All this caused inflation in 1980 in the U.S. to be close to 15%, and interest rates were raised to 20%.
Oil a bigger problem than 'printing'.
The prolonged conflict in Ukraine, sanctions on Russia, the still destabilized Middle East - protests in Iran, the Taliban in Afghanistan - and OPEC trying to cut oil production daily to drive the price above $100 a barrel... There are so many arguments for oil to rise in the medium term, and only the US fighting it actively by putting its reserves on the market.
This could be the main reason for double-digit inflation and high interest rates in the US.
Fed against the wall.
High rates and low inflation is a better short-term solution than too low rates and stagflation/high inflation. And yet, voices are breaking through to stop raising interest rates because it threatens recession - and it will, no matter how they want to defend themselves - and stop demand. But after all, that's the point; people are supposed to stop consuming maniacally and take out consumer loans to lower demand and help fight inflation faster. I believe the Fed, headed by Powell, are aware of this which is why they will not let up until inflation reaches 2%.
Long-term calm.
When Inflation starts to fall significantly, the FED will start cutting rates, and that's because Powell is looking hard at the 1980s crisis and Paul Volcker's conduct. One scenario I am considering is: RECESSION → Inflation starts to fall → Rate cuts → 2024-2025 economies get back on their feet and a new bull market begins. This is my long-term view. I wouldn't expect a big weakening of the USD during this time, as it will be supported by high interest rates, still strong demand and when inflation starts to fall, it will also support the currency. I would expect a weakening right after the recession ends. This was the case with the recessions of the 1980s, 2000 and 2007.
An uncertain, short-term future.
Currently, I don't know what to expect from inflation in the US - the next CPI reading on November 10. If it starts to fall now, it will increase the probability for the Fed to raise interest rates in December by 50 basic points rather than 75 basic points. The USD will weaken temporarily, but it will be hindered by oil, which is getting closer to $100 a barrel every day, and if it exceeds that level, the next CPI readings could be higher.
Scenarios.
November 10:
Inflation down → USD INDEX down → US Indices (SP, NQ, DJ, etc.) up → Precious metals up. Verification at next reading in December.
Inflation maintained or up → USD INDEX up → US Indices down (Sell Off) → Precious Metals down.
At this point, technically, the short-term USD INDEX is giving a signal for a decline, but a very weak one, so I am not set in either direction and take each scenario with equal probability.
Possible scenarios for the coming weeks, but I know that there are still levels below (102) that could be affected if inflation falls now.
P.S..
Unemployment has started to rise in the US, which is the first sign that raising interest rates is starting to work.
DXY: Still bullish but potential break of the 2022 patternThe DXY (US Dollar Index) broke last week below the 1D MA50 (blue) for the first time since August 11. Despite the drop, the 2022 Bullish Megaphone (or cylinder) is intact. However along with the emergence of a short-term Channel Down (Lower Highs/ Lower Lows), we see the 1W RSI turning on a Bearish Divergence as with Lower Highs and Lower Lows it is going against the Megaphone's Higher Highs/ Higher Lows.
The patterns shown on the chart must be respected and breakouts followed. We have denoted potential movements based on:
a) Break above the Channel Down = Bullish continuation within the Megaphone.
b) Break above the 1D MA50 = Bullish test of top of Channel Down.
c) Break below the Megaphone but still within the Channel Down = Bearish.
d) Break below the 1D MA100 (green) = Bearish outside the Megaphone, targeting the 1D MA200 (orange).
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EURUSD Retreats after Rebound FaltersThe EUR/USD encounters solid resistance near 1.0100.
The pair's continuous jerk comes on the heels of the greenback's weak recovery, which tries to restore some equilibrium following the recent steep sell-off, as the prospect of the Fed slowing the pace of its tightening plans appears as the immediate threat to the buck's further gains.
Investors are taking profits before of the important ECB rate rise decision and the US advance Q3 GDP release.
Meanwhile, extra emphasis is expected to be focused on Chair Lagarde's next news conference.
On Thursday, the dollar, as measured by the USD Index (DXY), recovers somewhat from prior lows near 109.50.
The risk-associated assets saw a lull in their rapid upward momentum, which was amplified by growing rumors of a probable Fed pivot. This has caused the dollar to rise higher.
Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve's firmer commitment to maintain raising rates until inflation appears well under control, despite an anticipated slowdown in economic growth and some loss of momentum in the labor market, continues to support the index's underlying bullish tone.
DXY - DAILY TIME FRAME VIEW - Q. What is the biggest confusion you have ever had in trading and how did you solve it?
#Financial Markets....
Applying Classical Charts Patterns On The Candlesticks Price Charts:
Ans.
Hey there,
These are one of the most important Patterns which i have replaced the same principles on the charts. we need to apply the same on the price charts. These are found in CANDLESTICK (pricechart). We call them as Classical Chart Patterns and are always seen on any time frame. this shall be in BULLISH OR BEARISH MARKETS the same above image can be reversed for the bearish Markets as well.
The question come is that. how to find and trade them. These are the basic principles and very important principles, that one needs to understand them and also apply them on the price charts. just applying with one particular time frame on the same instrument is not the right methodology.
We need to have this BULLISH patterns, in minimum of 3-4 time frame..... same applies on the BEARISH MARKETS as well. Next I shall be sharing, how these patterns can be traded and will be seen in the in the Price Charts.
Keep Following us for more information.
Note: Its my view only and its for educational purpose only. Only who has got knowledge about this strategy, will understand what to be done on this setup. its purely based on my technical analysis only (strategies). we don't focus on the short term moves, we look for only for Bullish or Bearish Impulsive moves on the setups after a good price action is formed as per the strategy. we never get into corrective moves. because it will test our patience and also it will be a bullish or a bearish trap. and try trade the big moves.
we do not get into bullish or bearish traps. We anticipate and get into only big bullish or bearish moves (Impulsive Moves). Just ride the Bullish or Bearish Impulsive Move. Learn & Know the Complete Market Cycle.
Buy Low and Sell High Concept. Buy at Cheaper Price and Sell at Expensive Price.
Keep it simple, keep it Unique.
please keep your comments useful & respectful.
Thanks for your support....
Tradelikemee Academy
DXY | Bearish Wave Coming..!!
#DXY (Update)
USD Bulls have been in Complete Control Since May 2022.
In Weekly timeframe, DXY is Facing the Key Resistance & Struggling to Clear it.
In Case of Rejection from here, Expecting a Massive Bearish Wave in Coming Weeks.
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All Roads Lead to a Stronger USDWe can conclude from the charts that..:
- Capital inflows to the USD are very strong in terms of momentum, and we haven’t reached the first layer of targets yet, based on longer-term channel work.
- This trend could last for several months at least, well entered into next year (Targets on monthly charts are pointing to July 2023).
- Right now there is no sign of a potential reversal, although retracements are to be accounted for and could be violent. We can infer this from the speed (the momentum) the market has exhibited since the summer of 2021, and the gaps it is leaving behind in the price structure.
- A pause in the trend will emerge when other assets start competing against the USD, namely US stocks, some commodities, and cryptocurrencies. We can see this already by looking at those markets priced in global terms, that is by indexing them in a basket of currencies. Their revival will surely take some wind off the dollar sails. But this is material for another episode.
If you are working as a technical analyst, editor, specialized translator, or a student of TA, consider visiting the site vocabTA.com, where you can find the largest phrase bank for Technical Analysis available on the Internet.
Full Disclaimer: This video and its contents are for informational purposes only and do not constitute an offer to sell or trade, a solicitation to buy, or a recommendation for any security, cryptocurrency, or related product, nor does it constitute an offer to provide investment advice or other related services by vocabTA. In preparing this video, no individual financial or investment needs of the viewer have been taken into account nor is any financial or investment advice being offered. Any views expressed in this video were prepared based upon the information available at the time such views were written. Changed or additional information could cause such views to change.
Will the hawkish message continue with today's FOMC? Plenty of attention will be on today's FOMC meeting. Traders are looking for a ¾ or point increase from the Fed today, taking rates to 3.25%. This is what the market expects: anything more and USD positive, anything less USD negative.
That's a simple look. The projections and the statement will be the key parts traders will be looking at. We all saw the market's reaction to last Tuesday's CPI surprise, and it not only revived the USD but also nailed stock indexes, risk currencies and crypto.
Traders will be looking to see any inflation surprises in the projections, what the Fed thinks about the current position, and how far the rates cycle may need to go. If any of these remain on the hawkish side, we could see further gains from the USD and further losses on risk markets, including crypto. Fed funds futures terminal rate has also been raised to 4.5% by April, increasing from 4.0% before last Tuesday's CPI report.
Looking at the USD index. If influences continue to support price we could see a new breakout above 110.30 resistance, continuing the current fast trend. The USD index has formed a new HL after the CPI spike got the current fast trend back on track. We want to see resistance beaten to confirm that the trend is truly underway, and a break of the September high would further that confirmation.
The Nasdaq has performed the worst out of the three main US indexes since the 16th of August. The NDX100 CFD index, which tracks the Nasdaq, dropped close to 15% since that high. Some short-term support is starting to set up on the NDX100, but if we see hawkish pressure resume, we would be looking for a move back to 11,450, an area that has shown demand back in July.
The FOMC projections, funds rate and statement will be released at 2:00 pm EST, with the Press conference to follow at 2:30 pm.
We love to hear from you so please feel free to drop us a comment. We also run weekly webinars with guest analysts.
DXY New Week MovementTechnical Analysis Chart Update
DXY - Dollar
Time Frame - H4
" SYMMETRICAL TRIANGLE " Pattern being followed in Short Time Frame and We have a Clear Direction for Sell because it has Completed its break of Lower Trend Line and Retest
According to " ELLIOT WAVES " we can see that it has Completed the Impulsive Waves " 12345 " so the Next Moves are Correction " ABC " waves in Bearish Direction
If DXY Breaks the Current Level and Retest then :
ABC / USD will Rise
USD / ABC will Fall
USD/ DXY INDEX - DAILY TIME FRAMEThe Structure looks good to us, waiting for this instrument to correct and then give us these opportunities as shown on this instrument (Price Chart).
#DXY
Note: its my view only and its for educational purpose only. only who has got knowledge about this strategy, will understand what to be done on this setup. its purely based on my technical analysis only (strategies). we don't focus on the short term moves, we look for only for Bullish or Bearish Impulsive moves on the setups after a good price action is formed as per the strategy. we never get into corrective moves. because it will test our patience and also it will be a bullish or a bearish trap. and try trade the big moves.
we do not get into bullish or bearish traps. we anticipate and get into only big bullish or bearish moves (Impulsive Moves).
Just ride the Bullish or Bearish Impulsive Move. Learn & Know the Complete Market Cycle.
buy low and sell high concept. buy at cheaper price and sell at expensive price.
Keep it simple, keep it Unique.
please keep your comments useful & respectful.
Thanks for your support....
Tradelikemee Academy
DXY (USD INDEX) MONTHLY SHORTI think we have finished ABC correction and are now in the last part of the X wave.
after this X wave, I predict that the USD index will fall to the areas shown.
furthermore, we are in the upper area of channel down.
Also, I have provided Fibonacci retracement of the ABC wave and now we are in the middle of that wave (50%). In addition, Fibonacci projections of X wave have made a resistance area shown in red!
conclusion:
I believe USD have very bad days in front of its currency and we may hear bad news about the united states in the months coming.
wish the best for all people of the world.
God bless us
The US dollar as a sheep in wolf's clothingThe printed money supply in the world is currently fed into the systems, consequence high inflation. Supply chains are healing but this might take some months until we're back in the game. Since the FED has no interest in sending the global economy into chaos, interest rate hikes will come to light again in the coming months and even interest rate cuts from 2023. Dollar is king but the revolution is right around the corner.
This is just an idea, note that this is not a recommendatin to invest or to trade with US dollars.