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FED's Easing Cycle Has Opened Path for DXY To HIT 93.00 Level !For the last several months we have seen the USD rise against all major currencies and while this was happening we were technically starting to get warning signs of BEARISH DIVERGENCE in the RSI! Fundamentally the US Economy remained strong back then with little worries regarding the trade war and geopolitical issues. The markets thought that the economy wont be impacted by the trade war in a long run as a trade deal could be reached soon but its been months and the saga still goes on. The US economic data has been under achieving and the FED instead of raising rates to a possible two times this year has switched its course to cutting them. A MAJOR DOVISH SWITCH! As this happened, the USD Index fell from the highs and has now comfortably broken the triangle's lower trendline and the weekly price has also closed below the EMA 50. All this indicates a strong trend switch is now in play and we could see the price potentially drop towards 93.00 where the next trendline is present. 93.00 also is a concrete support drawn from the monthly charts which has been respected on numerous occasions. As the time goes, the picture will be more clear and clear but one thing is clear, FED's easing cycle will surely be the main driver for DXY downfall to 93.00! Many predicted that the yellow metal will rise this year and boy they were not wrong as many major central banks have switched to easing cycle. Should the FED keep easing to support the economy we could see the yellow metal reach new highs and SAFEHAVEN FX currencies such CHF and JPY Appreciate against other currencies.
TVC:DXYShort
by FX618Analysis
1
RETAIL SALES REVIVE THE USDYesterday we spoke about the USD remaining bearish and despite our overall view remaining the same, the retail sales data has driven the USD Index back above the key 97.30 resistance. We may see another rally back into the $98.00 highs where price could form a triple top pattern before breaking lower. The retail sales for the month of may recorded an increase from 0.3% to 0.5% from the previous month. This data alone has increased the USD across the board.
TVC:DXY
by BlueberryMarkets
Dollar Index upswings unhurtBy Andria Pichidi - May 30, 2019 The USDIndex slipped slightly following the mix of data, where Q1 GDP came in slightly better than consensus, jobless claims were slightly higher, and the trade deficit was wider than expected. EURUSD edged over 1.1140 from 1.1135, while USDJPY was fractionally lower at 109.65 from over 109.70. Equity futures continue to indicate a moderately higher Wall Street open, while yields were little changed. US initial jobless claims rose 3k to 215k in the week ended May 25 after holding steady at 212k in the May 18 week (revised from 211k), and tumbling 16k to 212k in the week before that. US Q1 GDP growth was fractionally revised down to a 3.1% pace, beating forecasts, after posting a better than expected 3.2% gain in the Advance report. Remember, Q4 posted a 2.2% clip, with Q3 up 3.4%. For Q1, consumption was bumped up to 1.3% versus 1.2% initially. Fixed investment was nudged down to 1.0% from 1.5%, with nonresidential spending at a 2.3% rate from 2.7%, while residential spending was knocked down to -3.5% from -2.8%. Government consumption was revised up to 2.5% versus 2.4% previously. Inventories contributed $28.7 bln versus $31.6 bln. Net exports added $52.1 bln from $56.4 bln. The PCE price index slipped to 0.8% versus 0.9%. The core rate was 1.0%, down from 1.3%. The USDIndex remains above the 98.00 barrier for the day, while it is holding strongly, close to year high of 98.24. The short term outlook has been denominated today with consolidation, however the overall picture remains on track with the upwards channel seen the past 2 months. The asset is currently set above 20-, 50- and 200-day SMA, with the 2nd one providing a strong Support in the near term future. The intraday RSI has flattened at 63 due to the consolidation moves seen today, however in the higher timeframe continues to point to the upside. Interestingly, MACD lines in the near and long term formed a bullish cross, suggesting the continuation of the positive momentum. Hence a break of last week’s high could open the way towards the next barrier at the 99.00 Resistance level seen since May 2017. Support holds at the 20-day SMA at 97.50, however only a break of the 50-day SMA could develop concerns over the continuation of the up-channel. Click here to access the Economic Calendar Andria Pichidi Market Analyst Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
TVC:DXYLong
by HotForex