USD/INR - Evaporating Hope For Better Days - 4/30/2018 Rise in USD/INR is going to be the proportional to the rate of evaporation of the hope for better days in India. Well, the proposition itself was a pipedream but anyway let's focus on currency and not on crooks.
I gave a talk in NJ,USA few years back on USD/INR, where the audience was comprised of some bankers from India and some politicians along with many people doing frequent repatriation of US Dollars into Indian Rupees . Basically bankers were there to lure NRI investors to invest in India and take advantage of better exchange rate ( It was the time when USD/INR shot up above 60 for the first time ). Their argument was that, it is just temporary and USD/INR will be back to 40/50 range quickly. Reason? Well, the only reason they had is that it just happens that way ! While my thoughts were that USD/INR is going only in one direction and that is up ! Because, the land of lawlessness still need to do lot better to attract good stable long-term investment from foreigners.
Luckily Indian Rupee has weathered few years in good condition than its other Asian peers. But sooner or later the reality will catch up. Imminent potential problems may arise from next year election and from Fed rate rising.
Still the Trade is: Buy USD, sell INR
USDINR
Possible Elliot Wave Analysis - USDINRAs per my analysis , USDINR is trading in wave 3(3) which should take USDINR higher above 70+ levels over a period of time.
USDINR: uptrend is really a correction on weekly timeframe.usdinr uptrend is really a correction on weekly timeframe.
USDINR - Short tradeTP1: Start of the target box.
TP2: End of the target box or closed manually within.
USD/INR alternate countDon't get to biased. Trade what you SEE not what you THINK.
As John Maynard Keynes said, “The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.”
USDINR : Long term Elliott Wave ForecastAccording to my Elliott Wave count of USDINR, if I am correct ( being skeptical as EW count can be subjective, although all rules have been followed ) we are in minor wave A - of the Intermediate wave (3) - of the Primary wave 3 - of the Cycle wave V.
A Bulling engulfing formed on a Weekly chart suggests we have completed minor wave A , which is also a Fibonacci retracement up to 50% and the next target should be minor wave B for range Rs. 66 - Rs 66.24. (assuming it will be a Zig-Zag correction)
There after target for minor wave C target should be Rs 59 - 58.2944
I'll post more detail EW counts for the same.
USD/INR – Watch for a rebound from 64.1864.18, which is the 261.8% fib expansion level acted as a strong support earlier this month.
The daily RSI shows higher bottom formation. With that in mind, one should watch out for a rebound from 64.18 levels, although only a subsequent break above 64.80 (Apr 20 high) would signal the bear trend has bottomed out there and could yield test of supply around 65.21 levels.
USDINR (Monthly) Short -INR appreciates till 60Short at 64.70
Target 59.5
Stop 66.71
Risk to Reward: 1:2.5
USDINR - Bullish divergence, potential for recoveryThe pair has found support around 64.76 (227.20% Fib extension). Today's positive candle would confirm a bullish price RSI divergence and open doors for a technical correction to 65.20 and 65.61 in the short-run.
Also watch out for the breach of the descending trend line on the daily RSI. That would add credence to the bullish price-RSI divergence
USDINR could test 63.33 on dovish FedINR is on fire following ruling party BJP's victory in Uttar Pradesh elections. The monthly chart suggests a dovish Fed could yield a sell-off to the monthly 50-MA 63.33 levels.
That means a 200 pip drop.The move could happen in a day or two if the Fed keeps the rates unchanged.
TECHNICALS | USDINR Uptrend-Line.Another interesting trend-line presents as the reality dawns upon markets that the dollar may be rolling over.