Strifor || AUDUSD-21/05/2024Preferred direction: BUY
Comment: The currency pair continues to trade above the level of 0.66460 , and at the beginning of this week, we maintain our buy priority for this instrument, as well as the scenario.
Today, both scenarios are relevant, and until the support level of 0.66460 is broken down by sellers, the bullish mood will persist. It should be noted that the goal should not be set too high. The area 0.67500-0.68000 is the growth ceiling.
Additional comments on this trade will be provided as situation changes. Follow us!
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Usdjpu
Strifor || EURUSD-US CPIPreferred direction: BUY
Comment: It didn’t take long for us to realize our previous trading idea for the euro . At the moment, we have the fact that the target has been fixed. Today, the market's focus will be on the US CPI , against the backdrop of which we expect another short-term growth in favor of the main competitors of the US dollar.
The most likely scenario is an increase immediately after the publication of US inflation data (scenario №1). One can also consider buy-deal below current prices near the level of 1.07800 (scenario №2). We mark the target for short-term growth near the level of 1.09000, where the nearest resistance is located.
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Joe G2H Trade@ Buying USDJPYTrade Idea: Buying USDJPY
Reasoning: Pullback into newly formed support on the daily.
Entry Level: 138.104
Take Profit Level: 139.58
Stop Loss: 137.50
Risk/Reward: 2.4/1
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Japanese yen falls to five-year highThe US dollar continues to pummel the Japanese yen. USD/JPY pushed above the 117 line earlier today for the first time since January 2017. USD/JPY is up 0.61% on the day and has recorded a massive gain of 1.76% this week.
We continue to see sharp volatility in the currency markets and the Japanese yen has not been immune to the turbulence. Risk apprehension has been fluctuating, depending on developments in the Ukraine crisis. Like the US dollar, the yen is also considered a safe-haven currency, but with the US economy in much better shape than that of Japan, the US dollar has been the big winner from the recent turbulence we're seeing in the markets. As well, commodities are priced in US dollars, so the recent surge in commodity prices has boosted the US dollar. If the Ukraine crisis worsens and commodity prices continue to soar, it is entirely feasible that the USD/JPY will continue its upswing and break above the 120 line.
In the US, headline CPI continued to accelerate, with a gain of 7.9% for February YoY. This matched the forecast and was up from 7.5% beforehand. With inflation running at 40-year high, there's little doubt that the Fed will raise rates at next week's meeting, most likely by 25 basis points.
Japan ended the week with mixed numbers. Household Spending for January showed a sharp rebound of 6.9% YoY, up from -0.2% in December and above the consensus of 3.3%. However, the BSI Manufacturing Index for Q1 came in at -7.6, down from +7.2 in Q3 and way off the consensus estimate of +8.2. The BoJ is expected to maintain a dovish stance, despite rising inflation. On Friday, a senior BoJ official stated Japan's current and economic price conditions would make it inappropriate to respond with monetary tightening.
USD/JPY continues to climb and break above resistance lines. Earlier in the day, the pair broke above resistance at 116.27 and 116.72. The next resistance is at 117.33.
There is support at 115.56 and 115.11
Euro-Pound market Close|Pre-setup for 2nd Wk 12/21'With perfect structural reaction to current market technologies and the illiquidity of international DMMS, we may be in for a long break. Some financial markets are relieved, as they had expected a headline rate closer to 7%. The government's consumer price index showed 6.8% annual inflation in November, down from 7.8% in October. It was still above the 7% level that some had predicted as problematic, raising the likelihood of a peak in inflation. Tim Holland, CIO of Orion Advisor Solutions, says Wall Street was expecting more. The core CPI "meets expectations." "Many people believe we are nearing, if not already at, peak inflation," Holland says. Assuming this is true, we could see future deflation while yields remain stable. Bonds are the most vulnerable asset class to rising inflation. A rise in inflation leads to a sale of Treasury bonds, raising rates. Rather, investors waited for the Federal Reserve's policy announcement on Wednesday, which drove prices up and yields down. On Friday, yields fell across the curve except for one- and two-month bills. The 10-year Treasury yield (USD10Y) has fallen to around1.45%, while the 30-year Treasury yield (USD30Y) has fallen to around 1.84 percent. Initially, all three major US market benchmark indices reversed early-year gains. The market prefers monthly data over annual data, according to TD Securities' Gennadiy Goldberg. Goldberg attributes this to lower-than-expected monthly inflation and the Fed's three rate hikes in 2022. The long-run terminal rate is only 1.5 percent, according to the Fed's September projections. The market may discount a policy blunder. A year ago, the 2-year yield was near a year-high of 0.64 percent. Investors expected faster asset sales to help the Fed raise rates sooner next year and combat inflation.
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The long-run terminal rate is only 1.5 percent, according to the Fed's September projections. The market may discount a policy blunder. A year ago, the 2-year yield was near a year-high of 0.64 percent. Investors expected faster asset sales to help the Fed raise rates sooner next year and combat inflation.
With perfect structural reaction to current market technologies and the illiquidity of international DMMS, we may be in for a long break.
Some financial markets are relieved, as they had expected a headline rate closer to 7%.The government's consumer price index showed 6.8% annual inflation in November, down from 7.8% in October.
It was still above the 7% level that some had predicted as problematic, raising the likelihood of a peak in inflation.
Tim Holland, CIO of Orion Advisor Solutions, says Wall Street was expecting more.
"Many people believe we are nearing, if not already at, peak inflation, " Holland says.
Assuming this is true, we could see future deflation while yields remain stable
Bonds are the most vulnerable asset class to rising inflation.
A rise in inflation leads to the sale of Treasury bonds, raising rates.
Rather, investors waited for the Federal Reserve's policy announcement on Wednesday, which drove prices up and yields down. On Friday, yields fell across the curve, except for one-and two-month bills. The 10-year Treasury yield (USD10Y) is now around 1.45%, while the 30-year Treasury yield (USD30Y) is around 1.84 percent. Initially, all three major US market benchmark indices reversed early-year gains. The market prefers monthly data over annual data, according to TD Securities' Gennadiy Goldberg. Goldberg attributes this to lower-than-expected monthly inflation and the Fed's three rate hikes in 2022. According to the Fed's September projections, the long-run terminal rate is only 1.5 percent. The market may discount a policy blunder. The 2-year yield was near a year-high of 0.64 percent a year ago. Investors expected faster asset sales to help the Fed raise rates sooner next year and combat inflation.
☑️BTCUSD: beginning of the End➡️ As it was indicated in the forecasts earlier: the cryptocurrency is preparing for a small sale, and maybe a big one. Bitcoin is expected to be at the forefront of all of this. The price is trading near the psychological and round 60,000$ level. Most likely, buyers have lost this milestone and now, in a hurry, they would go to 55580.50$ .
The Sell Entry Point should be considered in the range of 60989.50$ - 62504.00$ (indicated on the chart). The immediate target of the fall will be the mentioned level of 55580.50$ . The second target is also considered near the level of 48512.90$ .
The approximate parameters of the trade are, as always, in front of you.
🔔 Proposed deal for this tool 🔔:
🔴Entry Point - 61602.50
⛔️Stop Loss - 55977.20
✅Take Profit - 55977.20
Thanks for your comments and likes 👍
👇🔥 LINKS TO PREVIOUS IDEAS AND FORECASTS 🔥👇
CHFJPY: consider longsAnd so, the CHFJPY currency pair broke through after consolidation (trade balance) and rushed even higher. At this stage, without further ado, the tool is in an upward movement that does not go beyond the uptrend channel. The pair approaching the support line allows us to consider buying from this border.
Remember, there is no place for luck in trading - only strategy!
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USDJPY: dollar would retreat todayThe pair was supported by rising Treasury yields, which, in turn, supported Japanese exporters and the Nikkei 225. The Nikkei's spectacular rally put additional pressure on the safe yen. The yen weakened against all currencies in principle, which could be observed on the charts (about the same impulsive movement as for the USDJPY pair).
A breakout of the psychological level at 113 foreshadows a rise to 113.70, Rabobank analysts write. Perhaps it is so, but at the moment, given some weakening of the US dollar today (not only against the yen), it is highly likely that the instrument will go down.
Proposed deal for this tool:
Entry Point - 113.209
Stop Loss - 113.549
Take Profit - 112.770
Thanks for your comments and likes 👍
analysis usdjpy#105
sell range: 104.205
Targets: 104.130- 104.055- 103.980
Stop loss The first goal: the profit to loss ratio is 1: 1 (104.280)
If the first target is touched (close one third of trades)
Stop Losses Second and Third Objectives: 104.205(Entry Range)
, If the second target is touched (close another third of trades)
And if the third target is touched (close the deal)