USDJPY Potential DownsidesHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring USDJPY for a selling opportunity around 149.900 zone, USDJPY is trading in a downtrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 149.900 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
USDJPY
USDJPY Set To Grow! BUY!
My dear followers,
This is my opinion on theUSDJPY next move:
The asset is approaching an important pivot point 150.36
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear long signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bullish trend of the market.
Goal - 151.52
About Used Indicators:
For more efficient signals, super-trend is used in combination with other indicators like Pivot Points.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
USD/JPY H4 | Heading into pullback resistanceUSD/JPY is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 150.60 which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 151.50 which is a level that sits above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and an overlap resistance.
Take profit is at 148.84 which is a swing-low support.
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USD/JPY Recovers After Dropping Below 150 Yen per DollarUSD/JPY Recovers After Dropping Below 150 Yen per Dollar
As the USD/JPY chart shows:
→ Yesterday, the pair fell below the psychological level of 150 yen per dollar.
→ However, today it staged a strong recovery, rising back above this level.
The yen weakened following the release of Japan's inflation data. According to Forex Factory, the National Core CPI increased by 3.2% year-over-year (forecast: 3.1%, previous: 3.0%).
According to Reuters:
→ The 19-month high in CPI strengthens expectations of further interest rate hikes in Japan.
→ The yen is weakening as Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that the central bank may step up government bond purchases if long-term interest rates rise.
Can USD/JPY Continue to Rise?
USD/JPY Technical Analysis
On 12th February, we noted that key highs and lows over the past three months formed an ascending channel, with the 154 yen per dollar level acting as a resistance barrier.
Indeed, since then, bulls have failed to sustain levels above 154 yen per dollar (as indicated by the arrow), leading to a decline below the lower boundary of the blue channel after a brief rebound on 18th February.
As a result, the former support at the lower boundary of the blue channel may now act as resistance around 151.3 yen per dollar, reinforcing the relevance of the descending channel (marked in red).
The trajectory of USD/JPY today could be significantly influenced by the release of the US Flash Manufacturing PMI and Flash Services PMI indices at 16:45 GMT+2.
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USDJPY: Bullish signal on the 0.5 Fib.USDJPY is almost oversold on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 32.042, MACD = -1.350, ADX = 47.008), pulling back on a technical retrace inside the long term Channel Up. This bullish wave correction is identical to the 0.5 Fibonacci pullback of December 29th 2023 that also traded on similar RSI levels. We expect the price to start recovering now and aim at the 1.382 Fibonacci. Go long, TP = 166.300.
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USD/JPY – Retesting key resistance before declineThe market is undergoing a correction after breaking its bullish structure. The weakening US Dollar (USD) has created favorable conditions for other assets, including the Japanese Yen (JPY). USD/JPY is currently retesting the previously broken trendline following a strong downward impulse.
On Thursday, the Yen reached its highest level in 10 weeks, pushing USD/JPY down to 149.5. Escalating trade tensions driven by Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff policies have led investors to seek safe-haven assets. Additionally, expectations of a Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hike have further strengthened JPY’s position in the market.
In the short term, USD/JPY may continue a corrective rebound, testing the 0.618 - 0.5 Fibonacci retracement zone before resuming its downward movement.
USDJPY Top-down analysis Hello traders, this is a complete multiple timeframe analysis of this pair. We see could find significant trading opportunities as per analysis upon price action confirmation we may take this trade. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
USDJPY below psychologically important 150.00 levelThe USDJPY fell below the psychologically important 150.00 level. Markets are pricing in a roughly 84% chance of a 25bps hike at the BoJ July meeting, up from a 70% chance at the start of the month. The USDJPY currency pair price action sentiment appears bearish, supported by the longer-term prevailing downtrend.
The key trading level is at 150.80, which is the current swing high. An oversold rally from the current levels and a bearish rejection from the 150.80 level could target the downside support at 149.20 followed by 147.90 and 147.20 levels over the longer timeframe.
Alternatively, a confirmed breakout above 150.80 resistance and a daily close above that level would negate the bearish outlook opening the way for further rallies higher and a retest of 152.30 resistance level followed by 154.40.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
Bullish bounce off overlap support?USD/JPY is falling towards the pivot which is an overlap support that aligns with the 138.2% Fibonacci extension and the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 149.37
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and the 138.2% Fibonacci extension.
Stop loss: 147.14
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 151.27
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
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USDCHF Bullish Flag: Breakout Targeting 0.94000USDCHF is currently trading at 0.90200, with a bullish flag pattern forming, signaling a potential breakout toward the 0.94000 target. The bullish flag is a continuation pattern that typically follows a strong upward move, followed by a period of consolidation before the next leg higher. If the price successfully breaks above the flag’s upper trendline, it could trigger a bullish wave, pushing USDCHF toward its next resistance levels.
From a technical perspective, the flag’s consolidation phase suggests temporary indecision in the market. However, as long as the price remains above key support levels and breaks out with strong volume, the bullish momentum is likely to continue. A confirmed breakout above the resistance could provide an entry opportunity for traders aiming for the 0.94000 target.
Fundamentally, the US dollar remains supported by the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance on interest rate cuts. Recent economic data from the US, including inflation figures and labor market strength, have kept the dollar strong against the Swiss franc. Meanwhile, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) maintains a relatively dovish stance, which could further weaken CHF and support the bullish case for USDCHF.
In summary, USDCHF is forming a bullish flag pattern, awaiting a breakout for further upside movement. A strong breakout above the resistance level could trigger a rally toward 0.94000, supported by both technical and fundamental factors. Traders should closely monitor price action and key economic events to confirm the bullish continuation.
USD/JPY Breaking Lower, Fib Levels in Play📉 Key Breakdown Below 150.00
USD/JPY has fallen sharply, breaking below key support at 151.50 (38.2% Fib retracement) and testing 149.63 (50% Fib level).
The pair is trading below both the 50-day EMA (153.80) and 200-day EMA (152.17), reinforcing downside pressure.
🔍 Technical Levels to Watch:
Support:
149.23 (50% Fib retracement) → Current price is testing this level.
146.95 (61.8% Fib retracement) → Next major downside target.
143.71 (78.6% Fib retracement) → Deeper bearish target.
Resistance:
151.50 (38.2% Fib retracement, former support, now resistance)
152.17 (200-day EMA) → A key level to reclaim for bulls.
📊 Momentum Indicators Bearish:
RSI at 33.18 → Near oversold territory, but still trending downward.
Bearish momentum accelerating, further losses possible.
🔻 What’s Next?
If USD/JPY holds below 150.00, expect further downside toward 146.95.
A recovery above 151.50 could neutralize the immediate bearish outlook.
Right now, momentum favors the bears, and lower Fib levels remain in focus.
-MW
USDJPY weaker on hawkish BoJ expectationsThe JPY (Japanese Yen) continues to strengthen against US Dollaar amid rising bets for additional BoJ rate hikes. The USDJPY currency pair price action sentiment appears bearish, supported by the longer-term prevailing downtrend.
The key trading level is at 152.50, which is the current swing high. An oversold rally from the current levels and a bearish rejection from the 152.50 level could target the downside support at 149.30 followed by 147.80 and 147.20 levels over the longer timeframe.
Alternatively, a confirmed breakout above 152.50 resistance and a daily close above that level would negate the bearish outlook, opening the way for further rallies higher and a retest of 154.30 resistance level followed by 155.70.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
USDJPY H1 | Bullish Bounce Off the 161.8%?Based on the H1 chart analysis, the price is currently at our buy entry level at 150.60, a pullback support that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Our take profit is set at 151.24 a pullback resistance.
The stop loss is placed at 149.92, below the 200% Fibonacci extension.
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Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (fxcm.com/uk):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (fxcm.com/eu):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (fxcm.com/au):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at fxcm.com/au
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Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
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USD/JPY Technical Analysis: Rebound Opportunities
Hello readers, my name is Andrea Russo and I am a Professional Trader. Today I want to show you my technical analysis on USD/JPY, a currency cross that has caught my attention for its current oversold position. I will analyze the various timeframes (1 day, 4 hours and 1 hour) to give you a clearer overview of the trading opportunities that could open up in the coming days.
Analysis on the Daily Chart (1D)
Let's start with the 1-day chart, where we can clearly see that the USD/JPY pair is in an oversold zone. The RSI (Relative Strength Index) and the price have reached levels that indicate a potential reversal. The bearish trend has been consolidated for several days now, but the market seems to be starting to exhaust its strength, approaching a possible support area. The moving averages (200 EMA, 50 EMA and 20 EMA) suggest a possible price recovery when the market finds stable support. The area where we are is crucial for a possible rebound.
Analysis on the 4-Hour (4H) Chart
Moving to the 4-hour chart, the situation is similar: the RSI is clearly in the oversold zone, and we can observe that the price has made a significant correction. This tells us that the market could be ready to reverse direction, with a recovery towards the next resistance level, located near 152,500. The structure of the market in this time frame suggests that it could be a good time to enter a long trade with short-term targets.
Analysis on the 1-Hour (1H) Chart
Finally, the 1-hour chart further confirms our hypothesis of an oversold zone. The RSI has reached extreme levels, indicating that the market could remain in this condition for a while, but a correction is also likely to occur soon. The price action on this timeframe indicates a potential entry opportunity for those looking to take advantage of a technical bounce. The short-term moving averages are starting to move away from the price, which could indicate a change in the direction of the trend.
Conclusion
In summary, USD/JPY seems to be in an oversold phase on all major timeframes (1D, 4H, 1H). This could be a signal that the market is ready to retrace, with a possible rally in the coming days. Traders could consider entering a long position, looking to take advantage of a technical bounce towards resistances. However, it is crucial to monitor key support and resistance levels, as well as the RSI, to try to avoid trading in a further downside environment.
As always, I recommend using rigorous risk management to protect your capital in the event of unexpected market movements.
Happy trading and see you soon with more analysis!
Andrea Russo
Short All weekly momentum indicators IMACD, RSI and Stochastic) are all bearish, so I have been looking for a short opportunity in 4H and daily charts.
$151.85 is the major resistance and support zone (black horizontal line in the chart).
On Feb 6, USD/JPY broke and closed below the area, but it failed to continue to the downside.
In the following few days, it retraced to Fib 0.5 area but started to move down. Today the price broke below Fib 0.236. I like the yesterday's strong red candle, cancelling all the buy pressure from the previous day.
I opened a short position this morning.
Entry at $152.83.
Stop Loss: $155.145
Target 1: $149.52 (move stop loss to the entry level once it hits this level)
Target 2: $147.395
USD/JPY Continues to DeclineUSD/JPY continues its decline in Wednesday’s trading session, remaining capped below the 152.14 resistance level. The pair has formed two short-term peaks, and technical indicators are signaling bearish dominance, particularly with a reversal from the EMA 34 and 89.
📉 My target is to sell, aiming for the support level at 151.299.
$JPIRYY -Japan's Inflation Rate (CPI)ECONOMICS:JPIRYY 4%
(January/2025)
source: Ministry of Internal Affairs & Communications
- The annual inflation rate in Japan climbed to 4.0% in January 2025 from 3.6% in the prior month, marking the highest reading since January 2023.
Food prices rose at the steepest pace in 15 months (7.8% vs 6.4% in December), with fresh vegetables and fresh food contributing the most to the upturn.
Further, electricity prices (18.0% vs 18.7%) and gas cost (6.8% vs 7.8%) remained elevated with the absence of energy subsidies since May 2024.
Additional upward pressure also came from housing (0.8% vs 0.8%), clothing (2.8% vs 2.9%), transport (2.0% vs 1.1%), furniture and household items (3.4% vs 3.0%), healthcare (1.8% vs 1.7%), recreation (2.6% vs 4.0%), and miscellaneous items (1.4% vs 1.1%).
In contrast, prices continued to fall for communication (-0.3% vs -2.1%) and education (-1.1% vs -1.0%).
The core inflation rate rose to a 19-month high of 3.2%, up from 3.0% in December and topping consensus of 3.1%.
Monthly, the CPI increased by 0.5%, after December's 14-month top of 0.6% rise.
Bearish drop?USD/JPY is rising towards the pivot which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could drop to the 1st support which acts as a pullback support.
Pivot: 151.27
1st Support: 149.66
1st Resistance: 152.64
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Why Morgan Stanley and MUFG back JPY? Morgan Stanley and MUFG both see the Japanese yen as the strongest G10 currency in 2025. They expect it to gain value as U.S. interest rates fall and Japan’s central bank raises its own.
On the daily chart, USD/JPY oscillators are still away from being in the oversold zone, suggesting that the path of least resistance could to the downside.
MUFG predicts further yen gains, especially against the euro, and has set a target of 150 for EUR/JPY, down from 157.
Morgan Stanley also favors the Australian dollar. Meanwhile they believe the New Zealand dollar will appreciate but underperform the Australian dollar due to a weaker domestic outlook.
USDJPY Weekly SetupFor the past few weeks, this pair has been on a bearish trajectory, and I do anticipate that the momentum will continue.
The targets are;
1. 150.93 ~ This is the lows of the past 2 previous weeks.
2. 149.6 ~ This is the Weekly Bullish Order Block
3. 148.7 ~ Another sellside liquidity formed in December.
The daily and 15 minute timeframe will give us the best entry and stop loss for this pair.