USDJPY Possible Short Trade Hello Traders,
today we would like to share with you the USDJPY as it seems that it may push lower. After the market pulled higher and held resistance around 112.00 as it turned south again. On its way to the downside, it might have created an S-H-S formation with a break of the trendline which may indicate lower prices.
This may be first clues that a lower extend to the downside is possible.
Looking at our Intermarket indications, which always gives us a clue about potential market capital flows, it seems that further outflow may follow as all of our indications look south with a tendency of staying for a little bit below the midlevel.
However, the market may oscillate a little further around trendline break before potentially falling further to the downside due to massive outflow in the previous hours!
We will wait for today’s close and see if potential trading opportunities occur.
Let’s see. We will keep you updated!
Usdjpy-trading
USD/JPY – Next leg lower could be short livedPair appears on track to take out 110.00 levels.
Such a move would trigger stops, leading to a quick fire drop to anywhere between 109.72 (monthly classic pivot support 2) and 109.40.
But, beware the spot could make a quickly retake 110.00 handle as the daily RSI is oversold for the first time since July 2016.
The ADX line has bottomed out and is pointing upwards, which suggest the bearish move is gaining strength.
USD/JPY could test 50-DMADespite Monday's rally from 111.92 to 112.84, the subsequent failure in the Asian session today at 112.82 followed by a drop below 5-DMA of 112.63 suggests the bears remain in control...more so as the falling trend line drawn from Feb 15 high and Feb 22 high has remained intact. The spot could test 100-DMA support of 111.61. On the higher side, only a daily close above 112.82 would signal bearish invalidation.
USD/JPY – Eyeing trend line supportPair’s close below 112.61 on Thursday followed by a failure at 112.95 earlier today and a retreat to 112.15 levels suggests the losses could be extended to 11.60-11.70 (descending trend line support).
The RSI is bearish… pointing downwards. The MACD has turned bearish as well.
USD/JPY could revisit 116.04Nice rebound from 114.54 (23.6% fib retracement of Trump rally) plus the upward sloping 50-DMA and the bullish break from the falling channel on the 4-hour chart suggests potential for a rally to 116.04 (former double top neckline support).
The 4-hour chart also shows a minor inverse head and shoulder pattern.
USD/JPY Forecast: Re-test of 115.00 likelyDespite Friday’s rally, the failure to hold above 117.00 today in the wake of the daily bearish price RSI divergence suggests the pair is likely to re-test 115.00 handle.
A daily close below 115.00 would add credence to the bearish divergence and signal a top is in place at 118.66 levels.
USD/JPY - Dip demand seen as expectedON Monday, we had talked about the nice rounding bottom formation in the pair , which suggested demand is likely even if Trump wins.
As expected the spot has recovered from the low of 101.19 to 104.53, tracking the sharp recovery in the treasury yields.
The daily candle now looks bullish given the huge lower shadow (which suggests dip buying)
Overall, this move reinforces our view of the pair testing 107.50 by December end.
USD/JPY - Nice rounding bottom on the daily chartAs we can see, the spot has formed a nice rounding bottom on the daily chart over the last five months.
The chart thus suggests potential for a rise to 106.00-107.50 levels.
A bullish Dollar-Yen chart ahead of the US elections once again point to the low odds of Trump victory. But as said earlier, charts are unreliable given the markets have been responding to the unreliable polls.
Nevertheless, the chart does say that dip demand still could be seen post Trump victory. Bullish invalidation is see only below 100.00 levels.
USD/JPY - Doors open for 105.00/105.50Pair's bullish daily close on Wednesday above the September high of 104.32 has opened doors for a rally to 105.00/105.50 levels in the short-term.
The daily RSI is above 50.00 and well short of overbought territory, which suggests potential for a further upside move. Rebound from the 5-DMA support in Asia further adds credence to the bullish view.
On the lower side, only a daily close back below 104.32 would signal bullish invalidation.
USD/JPY – Eyes 23.6% Fibo resistancePair’s break above September high of 104.32 followed by a rise to 104.80, the highest level July 29 suggests continuation of the rally from 100.00 levels and could yield a rise to 105.44 (23.6% fibo 98.787-107.50).
On the lower side, only a retreat from current levels followed by a daily close below 104.32 (September high) would open doors for a corrective move to 103.72.
Inverse correlation between Bunds and USD/JPYBunds and USD/JPY are inversely correlated since June 2015. This is precisely the time when market began questioning the efficacy of the BOJ policy and Yen began to rise.
Prior to June 2015, Bunds and USD/JPY pair shared a direct relationship…given that stimulus in Kapan pushed bond prices higher across the globe.
10-yr Bund prices could extend the recovery to 167.00 levels or so over the next week… given the Dollar-Yen pair has suffered repeated failure around September highs and the retreat to 103.60 today amid bearish crossover on the daily MACD suggests the bird is likely to extend losses further over the next week.
Given the inverse relationship… losses in Dollar-Yen means Bund prices could move higher to 167.00 levels.
USD/JPY – Bearish move likelyDespite recovery from the low of 103.16 (Wed low) and a positive move to 104.10 on Thursday, the subsequent failure in today’s Asian session at a high of 104.21 followed by a drop to 103.80 suggests the pair could revisit 103.16 – 102.80 levels before making another attempt at breaching the September high of 104.32 on daily closing basis.
On a larger scheme of things, only a daily close below 100-DMA level of 103.00 would bring in a more sustained weakness to 5-DMA, while a daily close above 104.32 would open doors for further upside towards 105.00-105.00 levels.
USD/JPY – Bears to make their presence feltRepeated failure to hold above September high of 104.32 coupled with back to back Doji candles on the daily chart and sign of short-term moving averages – 5-DMA & 10-DMA topping out suggests the retreat seen in Asia to 103.70 is likely to be extended to 103.00 levels.
On the higher side, only a move back above Asian session high of 103.95 would signal bearish invalidation, although fresh buying is seen only above 105.00 levels.
USD/JPY – Watch for break above September highsPair’s rebound from 103.33 (previous day’s low) has left the doors open for a continuation of the rally from Sep 27 low of 100.08.
However, traders need to wait for a 15-min or hourly closing above 104.32 (September highs)…especially after Yellen speech.
Usually we wait for daily close above critical resistance for confirmation. However, possible dovish comments from Yellen and the fact that it is trading near 104.32 gives us little room to wait for daily close.
On the lower side, only a daily close below 102.81 (Oct 10 low) would signal bullish invalidation.
USD/JPY – Scope for a deeper retracementPair’s retreat from the Asian session high of 104.63 to 103.80 marks failure to sustain above September high of 104.32 and suggests the rising trend line from the low of 100.08 has run out of steam and much deeper retracement to sub 103.00 levels is likely especially since we have bearish price RSI divergence on charts.
On the higher side, only a daily close above 104.32 would signal continuation of the rally.
USD/JPY – Needs break above September highsPair’s smart rebound from 102.82 (Oct 10 low) followed by a rise to 103.80 area suggests the rising trend from the low of 100.08 (Sep 22 low) remains intact, although next leg higher is seen only if prices see a day end close above 104.32 (Sept high) in which case resistance at 106.00-106.50 could be put to test.
On the lower side, only a daily close below 102.82 (weekly low) would suggest bullish invalidation.
USD/JPY – 100-DMA still sloping downwardsDespite pair’s rise to 104.00 levels caution is advisable since the 100-DMA seen today at 103.95 is still sloping downwards; hence potential for sideways action exists, although on a larger scheme of things bullish invalidation seen only below 102.78 (Sep 21 high).
USD/JPY – Retreat to 100.00 likelyDespite the rebound from 100.08 levels (Sep 27 low), the subsequent failure near 101.80 on Thursday and in the Asian session today followed by a retreat to 101.00 levels amid downward sloping 50-DMA suggests the spot is likely to breach 100.71 (50% of 2011 low – 2015 high) levels and head towards 100.00 levels.
On the higher side, only a daily close above 102.78 (Sep 21 high) would signal bearish invalidation.
USD/JPY: Eyes confluence of trend line hurdle & 50-DMAPair’s jump above 101.20 levels suggests a temporary bottom is in place around 100.00 levels and the rally from 100.08 (Tuesday’s low) to 101.63 (current rate) is likely to run into wall of resistance at 102.05 (50-DMA + falling trend line hurdle), although reckon the hurdle at 102.05 could hold today given the 10-DMA is still sloping downwards.
USD/JPY – Selling seen below 50% FiboDespite pair’s rally from 100.10 (yesterday’s low) to a high of 101.25 in Asian session today, the subsequent failure to hold above 5-DMA and a pullback to 100.80 amid bearish daily RSI suggests the spot could dip below 100.71 (50% of 2011 low – 2015 high) in which case support at 100.00 could be put to test.
On the higher side, only a day end close above 102.40 would signal bearish invalidation.