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USD/JPY and Steepening bond yield curveBank of Japan (BOJ) is likely to overshadow next week’s FOMC rate decision, said Marc Ostwald, Strategist at AMD Investor Services International on today’s finance show. Ostwald focused more on BOJ and explained the reasons for the recent steepening of the bond yield curve and its impact on the financial markets. Watch the segment with Marc Ostwald here – www.youtube.com Blame the BOJ The key message that comes through is that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is responsible for the recent steepening of the bond yield curve across the advanced world. There is speculation that BOJ would trim long duration bond purchases and increase short duration bond purchases in order to compensate banks and pension funds for the loss due to negative rates. Furthermore, the BOJ stands divided in three groups with regards to future course of action – one group supports QQE, another one negative rates and the last one has lost confidence. The whole thing clearly represents central bank exhaustion and looks like yield curve steepening would continue in the future. That also means the Yen may have topped out (USD/JPY could have bottomed out). James Helliwell, Head of Research at Lex Van Dam Trading Academy explained the trade of the day – Long USD/JPY. Watch the show here - www.youtube.com
by TipTVFinance
USD/JPY – Overbought on hourly, bullish on dailyNote the possible inverse head and shoulder formation discussed here – Pair’s bullish break from falling trend line on the hourly chart has opened doors for a test of a larger descending trend line resistance seen on the daily chart around 103.80-104.00. However, the hourly RSI has hit the overbought territory; hence the spot could trade in the sideways manner in the range of 102.50-103.00 levels before resuming the upside. A bullish day end close above 50-DMA would add further credence to the bullish view mentioned above. On the lower side, only a day end close below 101.20 (September 7 low) would signal bullish invalidation.
by TipTVFinance
USD/JPY – Higher tops and higher lows for the first time in 2016Higher tops…Higher bottom…no worries! Higher bottoms is good news, which is also known as rising trend line. As long as the subsequent bottoms continues to move higher we say the trend is intact. However, ‘higher tops with higher bottoms’ is like “having the cake and eating it too”. It is an indication the momentum is strong and fresh buying is likely to creep in on every dip. Yen bears would be happy to know that Dollar-Yen chart boasts of a ‘higher tops and higher bottom’ formation for the first time this year. Eddie Tofpik – Head of FX at ADM Investor Services International (ADMISI) presented his technical analysis on forex majors today’s London open show. Tofpik rightly pointed out to the higher tops higher bottom formation and said it is encouraging sign though it is bit early to say the pair has bottomed out. Watch the segment with Eddie Tofpik here - Technical outlook on FX majors and Bitcoin – ADMISI - www.youtube.com
by TipTVFinance
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USD/JPY – Potential double bottomFirst things first… What is a double bottom formation? Double bottom can be best described as - Reversal is a bullish reversal pattern typically found on bar charts, line charts and candlestick charts. Note the word – bullish reversal pattern. That in itself means the formation needs to appear at the bottom of the downtrend. A double bottom breakout, let’s say on the daily chart, in the middle of the uptrend or at the top of the uptrend loses its relevance. This is an often ignored rule and thus often leads to loss making trading decisions. Also note, the breakout needs to be supported by strong volumes, especially in case of stocks or indices. In FX, we can use the money flow index available at www.tradingview.com to confirm volume support. Now that we know what the double bottom formation is, we can proceed to have a look at the potential double bottom on the USD/JPY daily chart. Clive Lambert, Director at Futures Techs, pointed out to the potential double bottom formation on the Dollar-Yen daily chart on today’s London open finance show here - www.youtube.com Lambert says the pair could be heading higher to 107.50 (July 21 high), which would result in a double bottom formation. Of course, the spot needs to take out host of important resistance levels on the way higher namely 103.55 (June 16 low), 104.00 (July 26 low), 104.50 (falling trend line resistance), 105.55 (May 3 low).
by TipTVFinance
1
USD/JPY – break below 100 would be a challenge for BOJWith USD/JPY increasingly looking heavy, the decline to 100.00 appears likely. A daily close below 100.00 would be monumental and open doors for 98.00 levels. Wilson Leung, from Trendsetter FX was on our Finance show today presenting his view on USD/JPY pair. The segment could be found here - www.youtube.com Key points Roller coaster move in USD/JPY over the last few days Bearish invalidation seen only above 102.66 On a larger scheme of things, bearish invalidation seen above 105.50 area Remains in favor of selling the rallies in USD/JPY Pull back in equities is likely to be a catalyst for USD/JPY sell-off Tomorrow’s US CPI data is important Below 100.00, BOJ would be forced to step up its rhetoric
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USD/JPY - Eyes 100 levelsDismal US advance retail sales print at a time when markets have a tough time believing the Fed could raise rates even on strong data and the resulting drop in the JPY crosses - AUD/JPY, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY - indicates Yen demand is likely to spike over the next week. (Note - Usually a weak US data and a drop in Fed rate hike bets results in risk-on reaction i.e. rise in JPY crosses.) Hence, a retreat and daily close below 100.71 (50% of 2011 low – 2015 high) appears likely, in which case the pair could see a quick drop to 100.00 levels. On the daily chart, a key trend line support comes around 98.60 levels. On the higher side, only the day end close above 102.65 (Aug 8 high) would signal short-term bearish invalidation.
by TipTVFinance
1
USD/JPY – Correction could end around 102.73Hourly chart – Falling trend line hurdle at 102.73 Daily chart – 10-DMA hurdle at 102.73 Pair’s recovery from 100.71 (50% of 2011 low – 2015 high) to 102.50 levels has pushed the hourly RSI into overbought territory, thus the spot may fail to take out resistance at 102.73 (10-DMA + hourly falling trend line), in which case prices could head back to hourly 50-MA (now seen at 101.65) levels. On the higher side, the spot needs a bullish close above 102.73, although overbought hourly indicators still warrant caution.
by TipTVFinance
USD/JPY Channel on DailyMr Abe Launched a Stimulus Package again, Yes Again!! and No its not Helicopter Money. Read More Here: www.wsj.com & : www.ft.com After the News the Yen has strengthen to 101 and trading around 101.80 Now I am Looking to Buy Some Dollars with NFP due this Friday. So will be buying in 2 areas : First is a Demand Zone which is derived from previous price action. Second Channel Support and Important Fib Level Buy in the Demand Zone Based on Price Action Signals Stop loss will be Close below Demand Zones Target Upper Channel Happy Trading & Profitable Trading Cheers!! If my analysis has helped you plz press the like button to support Thanks FX:USDJPY
Long
by robin_bajaj_7
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USD/JPY – Long-term 50% Fibo support stands exposedDollar’s retreat from Asian session high of 102.83 followed by a break below 102.11 (61.8% of 98.787-107.494) suggests the minor corrective rally from Friday’s low of 101.97 has ended and a daily closing below 102.11 would signal continuation of the downtrend from post Brexit high and suggest drop to 100.84 (76.4% of 98.787-107.494) – 100.71 (50% of 2011 low – 2015 high). On the higher side, only a day end closing above 103.55 (June 16 low) would signal bearish invalidation.
by TipTVFinance
USD/JPY- Doji on monthly chartDollar-Yen appears poised July on a flat note, thus a Doji candle stick formation is in progress on monthly chart. Monthly high and low stand at 107.494 and 99.985. Doji candle represents indecisiveness and that goes well with the fundamental as well technical picture. BOJ's disappointment today has left markets wondering whether the central bank has lost control or today's less than dovish move was a part of 'wait and watch' game. In my opinion, BOJ's decision today largely reflects exhaustion due to overuse of monetary stimulus and is also a warning for other major central banks who are on a easing binge. There isn't any clarity with regards to Fed rate hike as well. Meanwhile, in technical terms, bear exhaustion is understandable, given they have been pushing the pair lower since January. Overall, it appears area around 100.00 (assuming there is no 'August' event in the markets) could continue to see buying interest in August, while the upside appears capped around 107.00-108.00 levels.
by TipTVFinance
USD/JPY- Falling channel intact despite Abe’s stimulus talkHourly chart- Falling channel Breach of rising trend line followed by a breach of rising channel to the downside, falling channel Channel support could be put to test Pair’s retreat from the high of 105.56 to a low of 105.12 in last couple of hours despite stimulus talk by Abe suggests the spot is at a risk of a re-test of yesterday’s low of 104.19. The level could be breached and the falling channel support at 103.52 could be put to test. On the higher side, only a hourly closing above falling channel would suggest trend reversal and may help the pair cut through strong resistance at 106.64 Japan stimulus details PM Abe informed us today – Economic stimulus to be in excess of JPY 28 trillion JPY 13 trillion would be on fiscal measures Only JPY 2 trillion earmarked for this calendar year Cabinet due to approve the stimulus on August 2
by TipTVFinance
USD/JPY - Bulls need to be patient'Bulls need to be patient' is the message that came out during our segment with Trendsetter FX Director Wilson Leung. For a change, Wilson talked about fundamentals - increased possibility of fiscal+monetary stimulus in Japan and improving US data likely to ensure a corrective rally in the USD/JPY pair from post Brexit low is likely to continue. However, the recent move appears overstretched and hence, bulls need to be patient, " Wilson's view if turns out right could lead to a formation of inverted head and shoulder formation on the 4-hour chart. He advised to be patient and rightfully so as the rally from post Brexit low is indeed overstretched and we are flirting with a larger falling trend line resistance (dotted line). A failure here could lead to a minor drop (left shoulder) before the bid tone recovers and the pair moves higher. Let us see how the things unfold. You can watch the video here - www.youtube.com
by TipTVFinance
USD/JPY – strong resistance at 105.07-105.09Dollar’s day end closing above the falling trend line suggests a short-term bottom has been made at 99.986 levels, although a 450 pip rally could lead to a short-term loss of momentum and sideways to choppy trading. Spot needs to break above strong resistance at 105.07 (50% of May 31 high-June 24 low) – 105.09 (78.6% of June 24 high-low) preferably on the daily closing basis if it has to break above 105.55 and test 106.00-106.30 levels. On the lower side, fall back inside falling trend line on daily closing basis could yield a re-test of 100.00 levels. Upticks in USD/JPY to be met with fresh offers? There is a widespread belief that Japan is coming up with a double barreled stimulus (fiscal + monetary) stimulus. Including us, there is a significant majority in the market that believes more stimulus is unlikely to be well received by the markets. For example - Hantec Market analyst appeared on our Finance show today, where he talked about selling upticks in the USD/JPY pair as he believes more stimulus won't work the way bank/government would like it to be. Here is the video titled - Bearish on Cable, Sell upticks in USD/JPY – Hantec Markets - www.youtube.com
by TipTVFinance
2
USD/JPY - Runs into trend line resistance on stimulus talkUSD/JPY rose for the second day as investors expect Japanese government to come up with a fresh fiscal stimulus . Bank of Japan too is expected to announce fresh stimulus in support of the fiscal stimulus, thus making it a double barreled effort. The pair ran into short-term falling trend line resistance of 103.62 before retreating sharply to 103.10 levels, Outlook Despite Dollar's retreat from 103.62 (trend line hurdle) to 103.10, the bid tone remains intact, although fresh bids are seen only in case of a 4-hr/daily closing above the falling trend line. Such a move would add credence to the rebound from 100 levels and open doors for 105.55 levels. On the lower side, only a day end closing below 100 would signal bullish invalidation and could yield a drop to 99 levels.
by TipTVFinance
USD/JPY outlook – watch for a break above daily highDespite dollar’s retreat from the Asian session high of 100.97 and a break below 110.68 (23.6% of Brexit drop) – 100.71 (50% of 2011 low – 2015 high), the pair has managed to avoid a violation of Wednesday’s low of 100.19. Hence, a recovery from the current level of 100.44 if followed by a move above daily high of 100.97 would open doors for a rally to 5-DMA of 101.35. Further gains could run into resistance at 101.85 (38.2% of Brexit drop). On the lower side, only a day end close below 100.19 would suggest the corrective move from post Brexit low has ended and could yield re-test of 98.79 levels.
by TipTVFinance
USD/JPY - SYMMETRICAL TRIANGLE BREAKOUT WOULD ADD TO BULL TONE USD/JPY pair snapped back to 100+ levels as expected in the European session update. Pair's rebound from 100.71 (50% of 2011 low-2015 high) if followed by a bullish break from the symmetrical triangle formation on the hourly chart would mean a temporary bottom is in place at 100.18 and open doors for a rise to 102.00 levels. On the contrary, fresh weakness from the current rate of 101.20 if followed by a break below 100.71 on day end closing basis would be a signal that retreat from the post Brexit high of 103.20 has resumed and the pair could very well re-test 99.00 levels in the short-term.
by TipTVFinance
USD/JPY – Risk of a snap back Despite dollar’s retreat in Asia, the pair has not been able to drop/sustain below 100.71 (50% of 2011 low – 2015 high). This adds credence to the pair’s rebound from the trend line (red) support on Wednesday and opens doors for a move higher to 101.40 today. A break above the Asian session high of 101.40 could yield a rise to 101.78 (5-DMA). On the lower side, only a day end close below 100.19 would signal the retreat from post Brexit high of 103.40 has resumed.
by TipTVFinance
USD/JPY - psychological level of 100 stands exposedPair's retreat from 103.40 levels followed by a drop below blue trend line level indicates the corrective rally from post Brexit low may have ended and the currency pair could be on track to re-test psychological level of 100.00 this week. The bearish view would gain credence if today's closing is below the blue trend line. On the higher side, only a day end closing above 103.40 would signal bearish invalidation although for bulls to come-in, the pair needs to break above falling trend line (black).
by TipTVFinance
USD/JPY - Gartley ScenarioThe USD/JPY pair recovered sharply from the low of 98.96 levels on Friday. The spot jumped to 102.48 in Asia on threat of BOJ easing, before trimming gains to trade around 102.00 in Europe. On the hourly chart, we can plot a Bearish gartley pattern. Here we have two scenarios... Leg BC is anywhere between 38.2% to 88.6%. The 88.6% level comes around 99.45. If the spot takes out today's low of 101.457, we could see it drop towards 0.886. Note that a rebound could happen from within the range of 101.457-99.45. On the other hand, if the spot moves above 103.26 today, we could consider today's low of 101.457 as the point C of the Gartley. In either cases, we could be moving higher to point D which in either cases rests just above 105.00 levels.
by TipTVFinance