$JPIRYY -Japan's Inflation Rate (CPI)ECONOMICS:JPIRYY 4%
(January/2025)
source: Ministry of Internal Affairs & Communications
- The annual inflation rate in Japan climbed to 4.0% in January 2025 from 3.6% in the prior month, marking the highest reading since January 2023.
Food prices rose at the steepest pace in 15 months (7.8% vs 6.4% in December), with fresh vegetables and fresh food contributing the most to the upturn.
Further, electricity prices (18.0% vs 18.7%) and gas cost (6.8% vs 7.8%) remained elevated with the absence of energy subsidies since May 2024.
Additional upward pressure also came from housing (0.8% vs 0.8%), clothing (2.8% vs 2.9%), transport (2.0% vs 1.1%), furniture and household items (3.4% vs 3.0%), healthcare (1.8% vs 1.7%), recreation (2.6% vs 4.0%), and miscellaneous items (1.4% vs 1.1%).
In contrast, prices continued to fall for communication (-0.3% vs -2.1%) and education (-1.1% vs -1.0%).
The core inflation rate rose to a 19-month high of 3.2%, up from 3.0% in December and topping consensus of 3.1%.
Monthly, the CPI increased by 0.5%, after December's 14-month top of 0.6% rise.
USDJPY
USDJPY below psychologically important 150.00 levelThe USDJPY fell below the psychologically important 150.00 level. Markets are pricing in a roughly 84% chance of a 25bps hike at the BoJ July meeting, up from a 70% chance at the start of the month. The USDJPY currency pair price action sentiment appears bearish, supported by the longer-term prevailing downtrend.
The key trading level is at 150.80, which is the current swing high. An oversold rally from the current levels and a bearish rejection from the 150.80 level could target the downside support at 149.20 followed by 147.90 and 147.20 levels over the longer timeframe.
Alternatively, a confirmed breakout above 150.80 resistance and a daily close above that level would negate the bearish outlook opening the way for further rallies higher and a retest of 152.30 resistance level followed by 154.40.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
USDJPY Set To Grow! BUY!
My dear followers,
This is my opinion on theUSDJPY next move:
The asset is approaching an important pivot point 150.36
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear long signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bullish trend of the market.
Goal - 151.52
About Used Indicators:
For more efficient signals, super-trend is used in combination with other indicators like Pivot Points.
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
USD/JPY Recovers After Dropping Below 150 Yen per DollarUSD/JPY Recovers After Dropping Below 150 Yen per Dollar
As the USD/JPY chart shows:
→ Yesterday, the pair fell below the psychological level of 150 yen per dollar.
→ However, today it staged a strong recovery, rising back above this level.
The yen weakened following the release of Japan's inflation data. According to Forex Factory, the National Core CPI increased by 3.2% year-over-year (forecast: 3.1%, previous: 3.0%).
According to Reuters:
→ The 19-month high in CPI strengthens expectations of further interest rate hikes in Japan.
→ The yen is weakening as Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that the central bank may step up government bond purchases if long-term interest rates rise.
Can USD/JPY Continue to Rise?
USD/JPY Technical Analysis
On 12th February, we noted that key highs and lows over the past three months formed an ascending channel, with the 154 yen per dollar level acting as a resistance barrier.
Indeed, since then, bulls have failed to sustain levels above 154 yen per dollar (as indicated by the arrow), leading to a decline below the lower boundary of the blue channel after a brief rebound on 18th February.
As a result, the former support at the lower boundary of the blue channel may now act as resistance around 151.3 yen per dollar, reinforcing the relevance of the descending channel (marked in red).
The trajectory of USD/JPY today could be significantly influenced by the release of the US Flash Manufacturing PMI and Flash Services PMI indices at 16:45 GMT+2.
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USDJPY Top-down analysis Hello traders, this is a complete multiple timeframe analysis of this pair. We see could find significant trading opportunities as per analysis upon price action confirmation we may take this trade. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
Bearish drop?USD/JPY is rising towards the pivot which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could drop to the 1st support which acts as a pullback support.
Pivot: 151.27
1st Support: 149.66
1st Resistance: 152.64
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USD/JPY H4 | Heading into pullback resistanceUSD/JPY is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 150.60 which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 151.50 which is a level that sits above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and an overlap resistance.
Take profit is at 148.84 which is a swing-low support.
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The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
USDJPY Potential DownsidesHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring USDJPY for a selling opportunity around 149.900 zone, USDJPY is trading in a downtrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 149.900 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
Why Morgan Stanley and MUFG back JPY? Morgan Stanley and MUFG both see the Japanese yen as the strongest G10 currency in 2025. They expect it to gain value as U.S. interest rates fall and Japan’s central bank raises its own.
On the daily chart, USD/JPY oscillators are still away from being in the oversold zone, suggesting that the path of least resistance could to the downside.
MUFG predicts further yen gains, especially against the euro, and has set a target of 150 for EUR/JPY, down from 157.
Morgan Stanley also favors the Australian dollar. Meanwhile they believe the New Zealand dollar will appreciate but underperform the Australian dollar due to a weaker domestic outlook.
Bullish bounce off overlap support?USD/JPY is falling towards the pivot which is an overlap support that aligns with the 138.2% Fibonacci extension and the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 149.37
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and the 138.2% Fibonacci extension.
Stop loss: 147.14
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 151.27
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
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USD/JPY Breaking Lower, Fib Levels in Play📉 Key Breakdown Below 150.00
USD/JPY has fallen sharply, breaking below key support at 151.50 (38.2% Fib retracement) and testing 149.63 (50% Fib level).
The pair is trading below both the 50-day EMA (153.80) and 200-day EMA (152.17), reinforcing downside pressure.
🔍 Technical Levels to Watch:
Support:
149.23 (50% Fib retracement) → Current price is testing this level.
146.95 (61.8% Fib retracement) → Next major downside target.
143.71 (78.6% Fib retracement) → Deeper bearish target.
Resistance:
151.50 (38.2% Fib retracement, former support, now resistance)
152.17 (200-day EMA) → A key level to reclaim for bulls.
📊 Momentum Indicators Bearish:
RSI at 33.18 → Near oversold territory, but still trending downward.
Bearish momentum accelerating, further losses possible.
🔻 What’s Next?
If USD/JPY holds below 150.00, expect further downside toward 146.95.
A recovery above 151.50 could neutralize the immediate bearish outlook.
Right now, momentum favors the bears, and lower Fib levels remain in focus.
-MW
USDJPY weaker on hawkish BoJ expectationsThe JPY (Japanese Yen) continues to strengthen against US Dollaar amid rising bets for additional BoJ rate hikes. The USDJPY currency pair price action sentiment appears bearish, supported by the longer-term prevailing downtrend.
The key trading level is at 152.50, which is the current swing high. An oversold rally from the current levels and a bearish rejection from the 152.50 level could target the downside support at 149.30 followed by 147.80 and 147.20 levels over the longer timeframe.
Alternatively, a confirmed breakout above 152.50 resistance and a daily close above that level would negate the bearish outlook, opening the way for further rallies higher and a retest of 154.30 resistance level followed by 155.70.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
USDCHF Bullish Flag: Breakout Targeting 0.94000USDCHF is currently trading at 0.90200, with a bullish flag pattern forming, signaling a potential breakout toward the 0.94000 target. The bullish flag is a continuation pattern that typically follows a strong upward move, followed by a period of consolidation before the next leg higher. If the price successfully breaks above the flag’s upper trendline, it could trigger a bullish wave, pushing USDCHF toward its next resistance levels.
From a technical perspective, the flag’s consolidation phase suggests temporary indecision in the market. However, as long as the price remains above key support levels and breaks out with strong volume, the bullish momentum is likely to continue. A confirmed breakout above the resistance could provide an entry opportunity for traders aiming for the 0.94000 target.
Fundamentally, the US dollar remains supported by the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance on interest rate cuts. Recent economic data from the US, including inflation figures and labor market strength, have kept the dollar strong against the Swiss franc. Meanwhile, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) maintains a relatively dovish stance, which could further weaken CHF and support the bullish case for USDCHF.
In summary, USDCHF is forming a bullish flag pattern, awaiting a breakout for further upside movement. A strong breakout above the resistance level could trigger a rally toward 0.94000, supported by both technical and fundamental factors. Traders should closely monitor price action and key economic events to confirm the bullish continuation.
Short All weekly momentum indicators IMACD, RSI and Stochastic) are all bearish, so I have been looking for a short opportunity in 4H and daily charts.
$151.85 is the major resistance and support zone (black horizontal line in the chart).
On Feb 6, USD/JPY broke and closed below the area, but it failed to continue to the downside.
In the following few days, it retraced to Fib 0.5 area but started to move down. Today the price broke below Fib 0.236. I like the yesterday's strong red candle, cancelling all the buy pressure from the previous day.
I opened a short position this morning.
Entry at $152.83.
Stop Loss: $155.145
Target 1: $149.52 (move stop loss to the entry level once it hits this level)
Target 2: $147.395
USDJPY H1 | Bullish Bounce Off the 161.8%?Based on the H1 chart analysis, the price is currently at our buy entry level at 150.60, a pullback support that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Our take profit is set at 151.24 a pullback resistance.
The stop loss is placed at 149.92, below the 200% Fibonacci extension.
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Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (fxcm.com/uk):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (fxcm.com/eu):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (fxcm.com/au):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at fxcm.com/au
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Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
The beginning of the carry trade unwind part 2?If we look at the chart, the current structure looks very similar to what happened right before the market decline in August.
We've formed a head and shoulders (albeit not perfect as it's slanted), and price seems to be breaking down.
If price action accelerates to do downside, it's likely to take the market with it just like it did the last time.
Paying attention to this over the coming weeks.
USDJPY Potential DownsidesHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring USDJPY fora selling opportunity around 151.800 zone, USDJPY is trading in a downtrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 151.800 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
USD/JPY H1 | Heading into overlap resistanceUSD/JPY is rising towards an overlap resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 152.13 which is an overlap resistance.
Stop loss is at 152.54 which is a level that sits above an overlap resistance.
Take profit is at 151.36 which is a swing-low support.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
DeGRAM | USDJPY continued growth in the channelUSDJPY is in an ascending channel between the trend lines.
The price is moving from the lower boundary of the channel and a strong support level.
The chart is maintaining a harmonic pattern.
We expect the growth to continue.
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Market Analysis: USD/JPY Turns RedMarket Analysis: USD/JPY Turns Red
USD/JPY declined below 153.00 and is currently consolidating losses.
Important Takeaways for USD/JPY Analysis Today
- USD/JPY is trading in a bearish zone below the 153.00 and 152.50 levels.
- There is a short-term rising channel forming with support near 151.60 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.
USD/JPY Technical Analysis
On the hourly chart of USD/JPY at FXOpen, the pair started a steady decline from well above the 154.00 zone. The US Dollar gained bearish momentum below the 153.00 support against the Japanese Yen.
The pair even settled below the 152.50 level and the 50-hour simple moving average. There was a spike below 151.50 and the pair traded as low as 151.23. It is now correcting losses and trading above the 50-hour simple moving average.
Immediate resistance on the USD/JPY chart is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 154.80 swing high to the 151.23 low at 152.05.
The first major resistance is near the 153.00 zone and the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 154.80 swing high to the 151.23 low. If there is a close above the 153.00 level and the hourly RSI moves above 60, the pair could rise toward 153.95.
The next major resistance is near 154.80, above which the pair could test 155.50 in the coming days. On the downside, the first major support is near 151.60. There is also a short-term rising channel forming with support near 151.60.
The next major support is near the 151.20 level. If there is a close below 151.20, the pair could decline steadily. In the stated case, the pair might drop toward the 150.00 support.
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This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.