Could the price reverse from here?USD/JPY is reacting off the resistance level which is a pullback resistance that lines up with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension and the 78.6% Fibonacci projection and could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 145.59
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that lines up with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension and the 78.6% Fibonacci projection.
Stop loss: 146.75
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that line sup with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 143.86
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
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USDJPY
USD/JPY : Get Ready for another Rally! (READ THE CAPTION)By analyzing the USD/JPY chart on the daily timeframe, we can see that, as expected, the price has finally started to rise. So far, it has successfully reached the 143.5 and 144 targets, and extended up to 145.76, delivering a solid 350-pip move.
The main analysis remains valid, and I expect the price to hit the next target at 146.2 soon.
The total gain from this setup has now exceeded 570 pips, and the key upcoming supply zones are at 146.2, 148.7, and 150.
This analysis will be updated accordingly!
THE MAIN ANALYSIS :
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DeGRAM | USDJPY Keeps the Demand Zone📊 Technical Analysis
● USD/JPY has broken the falling-wedge top and is holding above the 142.20 breakout line; that keeps 144.03 → 147.5 in scope.
💡 Fundamental Analysis
● U.S. March retail sales surged 1.4 %, underscoring resilient demand.
✨ Summary
A wedge breakout plus firm U.S. data, a hawkish Fed and a dovish BOJ favour more dollar strength; holding above 142.20 keeps USD/JPY on track for $144.03–147.5.
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USDJPY Daily & H4 Forecasts, Technical Analysis & Trading IdeaTechnical analysis is on the chart!
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FX:USDJPY
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USDJPY Poised to Retest Broken Trendline After Dovish BOJWe discussed the potential battle between bulls and bears near the trendline in our early April post. USDJPY bears ultimately won that battle, and the 140 target was reached. You can view the earlier post here:
Following the breakdown, the 140 level acted as support, and now an upward reaction has begun. At today’s meeting, the BOJ held rates steady at 0.50% as expected, and Governor Ueda delivered a dovish message. The BOJ lowered its core inflation forecast by 0.2% to 2.2% for 2025 and to 1.7% for 2026. The GDP forecast was also revised down from 1.1% to 0.5%.
These projections suggest the BOJ lacks full confidence in consistently reaching its 2% inflation target, though it's very close. However, the risk of tariffs complicates the outlook. Tariffs could negatively impact both growth and inflation, and the BOJ will likely hold off on further rate hikes for at least a few meetings to observe early effects.
In the context of a more dovish BOJ and the dollar index stabilizing after weeks of declines, USDJPY is staging a positive correction. A retest of the broken trendline appears likely, with potential for the short-term rally to extend toward 148.50. Beyond that point, the market will face a critical decision. If the upward reaction stalls, another medium-term move back toward 140 remains a strong possibility.
Fundamental Market Analysis for March 01, 2025 USDJPYThe USD/JPY pair is trading with small losses, hovering around the mid-143.00s after disappointing US economic growth data and weak Japanese economic reports caused a divergence in sentiment between the two currencies. The US economy contracted 0.3 per cent in the first quarter of 2025, the first contraction since 2022, missing growth expectations and highlighting the impact of rising imports and government spending cuts. At the same time, Japan released weaker-than-expected industrial production and retail sales data, limiting the yen's gains even as global risk appetite declined.
On the macroeconomic front, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that real GDP contracted 0.3% in Q1, missing the market forecast for a 0.4% increase and slowing sharply from the 2.4% growth in Q4 2024. The contraction was primarily driven by a 41 per cent rise in imports and lower government spending. Meanwhile, core PCE inflation, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, fell to 2.3 per cent year-on-year, in line with expectations and below February's 2.5 per cent. Other data showed a slowdown in job creation, with the ADP report showing just 62,000 new jobs in April against expectations of 108,000.
Despite the softer data, personal spending remained flat in March, rising 0.7%, while incomes rose 0.5%. However, market sentiment turned cautious, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling more than 200 points to stagnate around 40,300.
In Japan, the yen weakened 0.5% against the dollar as industrial production and retail sales data disappointed, highlighting the fragility of the domestic economy.
Trade recommendation: BUY 144.20, SL 144.00, TP 145.00
$JPINTR -BoJ Holds Rates but Cuts GDP Growth Outlook (May/2025)ECONOMICS:JPINTR
May/2025
source: Bank of Japan
-The Bank of Japan (BoJ) kept its key short-term interest rate at 0.5% during its May meeting, in line with expectations.
The unanimous decision came amid growing concerns over the impact of U.S. tariffs.
In its quarterly outlook, the BoJ slashed its FY 2025 GDP growth forecast to 0.5%, from January’s estimate of 1.0%.
The growth outlook for FY 2026 was also lowered to 0.7% from the prior forecast of 1.0%.
Technicals USDJPY Key Level (Horizontal Resistance)
A horizontal resistance zone around 143.90 has been tested multiple times.
Price is currently retesting this zone, marked as an "Entry Zone", suggesting a potential breakout or rejection.
2. Price Structure
Prior downtrend bottomed near 140.00, then formed higher lows, showing a potential trend reversal.
Current price is approaching the resistance with strong bullish candles, indicating possible momentum buildup.
3. Volume
Volume spikes align with swing highs and lows, suggesting these moves were backed by stronger participation.
4. Scenarios Outlined
Bullish Path (Black Arrow): Breakout above the entry zone could lead to targets near 147.00–150.00, continuing a bullish reversal.
Bearish Path (Red Wave): Rejection at the resistance may cause a drop toward 140.00, forming a ranging or distribution pattern.
The Fed (USD) maintains relatively high interest rates, while the BoJ (JPY) continues a dovish stance, creating upward pressure on USD/JPY.
XAUUSD/GOLD | 4H | SWING TRADEHey There,
Guys, I advise you to just wait for the breakout in gold. This is swing trading. I am just waiting for a breakout; if this breakout is to the downside, the target will be at least 3.215 level.
I hope this matches your desired tone.
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USDJPY Bearish Forecast, More Bearish Order FlowAfter the recent change of character from Monday, UJ continued lower and broke the H1 structure. As we all know, whenever you get a break of structure, expect a pullback. On the H4 there is a nice bearish OB which serves as a nice point of interest for price to rally back towards, be mindful this OB is big so we don't know what to expect once price reaches it.
For now this is how I see the dollar heading towards.
Could the price bounce from here?USD/JPY is falling towards the support level which is a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 142.39
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that line sup with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 141.95
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Take profit: 143.13
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
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USDJPY INTRADAY downtrend continuationThe USDJPY pair is exhibiting a bearish sentiment, reinforced by the ongoing downtrend. The key trading level to watch is at 145.60, which represents the current intraday swing low and the falling resistance trendline level.
In the short term, an oversold rally from current levels, followed by a bearish rejection at the 145.60 resistance, could lead to a downside move targeting support at 141.00, with further potential declines to 139.50 and 138.40 over a longer timeframe.
On the other hand, a confirmed breakout above the 145.60 resistance level and a daily close above that mark would invalidate the bearish outlook. This scenario could pave the way for a continuation of the rally, aiming to retest the 147.90 resistance, with a potential extension to 149.00 levels.
Conclusion:
Currently, the USDJPY sentiment remains bearish, with the 145.60 level acting as a pivotal resistance. Traders should watch for either a bearish rejection at this level or a breakout and daily close above it to determine the next directional move. Caution is advised until the price action confirms a clear break or rejection.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
USDJPY 4h Long Setup | Low Risk High Reward Market broke the descending structure with strong bullish impulse followed by higher lows respecting new trendline
Price retested the previous resistance now turned support zone with a bullish reaction
Entry is taken after confirmation of the retest holding and bullish continuation signs
Entry : 142.494
SL : 140.676
TP : 148.270
RR 1 : 3.2
Price action aligned with short-term bullish reversal structure and clear demand zone defense
Let price do the work
Bullish bounce off pullback support?USD/JPY is falling towards the pivot which is a pullback support and could rise to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 141.63
1st Support: 141.00
1st Resistance: 142.75
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USDJPY ready for another drop?After daily break of structure USDJPY just has managed to form another head and shoulder with strong liquidity grab has started to move in the major direction of the trend. After yesterdays drop, price today so far has done pullback and formed another possible bearish market structure.
As of upcoming USD and JPY news may push that price back to the support as shown in sketch.
A sell trade is high probability
USD/JPY : Bull or Bear? Let's See! (READ THE CAPTION)Upon reviewing the USD/JPY chart on the daily timeframe, we observe that due to the sharp drop in the Dollar Index, the price has reached the 140.850 level. This decline was very strong and impulsive; however, as seen on the chart, the price has now approached a significant demand zone between 139.6 and 141. If the price manages to close and stabilize above this area, we can expect a further bullish move from this pair.
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EUR/USD: Possible Fall Ahead? Let's See! (READ THE CAPTION)Upon reviewing the EUR/USD chart on the 3-day timeframe, we can see that following a sharp decline in the Dollar Index (DXY), the pair experienced a bullish move, reaching the 1.15 supply zone. If the price manages to stabilize and close below the 1.15–1.17 area, we can anticipate a further drop in EUR/USD to fill the created Liquidity Void (LV). This analysis will be updated accordingly.
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
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USDJPY: Bearish Outlook Explained 🇺🇸🇯🇵
I see a very bearish price action on USDJPY:
The price formed a head & shoulders pattern after a test of
a key daily/intraday resistance and violated its neckline
and a rising support of a rising wedge pattern.
The next strong support is 141.75
It will most likely be the next goal for the sellers.
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Yen Under Pressure Ahead of BOJ DecisionThe Japanese yen edged closer to 144 per dollar on Monday, continuing last week’s decline as global trade sentiment improved and the dollar strengthened. Markets responded to a private meeting between Japan’s Finance Minister Kato and U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent, during which both parties stressed the importance of ongoing discussions on currency matters. Meanwhile, Japan’s trade negotiator is set to visit Washington this week, as the Bank of Japan is expected to maintain interest rates at 0.5%, amid concerns over the economic impact of U.S. tariffs.
Key resistance is at 144.00, with further levels at 145.90 and 146.75. Support stands at 139.70, followed by 137.00 and 135.00.
USD/JPYThe Japanese Yen (JPY) oscillates in a narrow trading band at the start of a new week and remains close to a two-week trough touched against its American counterpart on Friday. Mixed signals from the US and China temper hopes for a quick resolution of the trade conflict between the world's two largest economies, which, in turn, offers support to the safe-haven JPY. Moreover, expectations that Japan will strike a trade deal with the US turn out to be another factor underpinning the JPY.
Meanwhile, investors have been scaling back their bets for an immediate interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) as rising economic risks from US tariffs overshadow signs of broadening inflation in Japan. This holds back the JPY bulls from placing aggressive bets, which, along with a modest US Dollar (USD) uptick, acts as a tailwind for the USD/JPY pair. However, the divergent BoJ-Federal Reserve (Fed) policy expectations should cap the USD and benefit the lower-yielding JPY.
USDJPY H4 I Bullish Rise Based on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that the price has just bounced off our buy entry at 142.09, which is an overlap support that aligns close to the 50% Fibo retracement.
Our take profit will be at 144.01, which is an overlap resistance level.
The stop loss will be placed at 140.89, which is a pullback support level.
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