USDJPY Setup: Weak Highs, Smart Money Buys Liquidity!!📊 USDJPY is showing signs of a Smart Money reversal from the discount zone.
This 30-minute chart reveals institutional intentions hiding in plain sight — with clear signs of engineered liquidity grabs and the potential for a strong bullish continuation.
🧠 What’s Happening on the Chart:
✅ Price has swept sell-side liquidity below the recent lows
✅ Retraced cleanly to the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 146.26, a classic Smart Money entry zone
✅ The current price is hovering around the 50% retracement, forming a potential higher low structure
📈 Bullish Confluence:
Price is rebounding from a discount zone (golden ratio: 61.8% Fib)
There’s a clearly defined "weak high" marked around 147.00 — Smart Money typically targets these areas
Above that, there are two stacked buy-side liquidity levels:
147.670
148.282
Final target? The liquidity pool near 148.654 — a clean magnet for price
🎯 Trade Idea:
Long Bias from 146.26–146.43 zone (Smart Money re-entry)
Targets:
TP1: 147.00 (Weak High)
TP2: 147.670 (Buy Side Liquidity)
TP3: 148.282 – 148.654 (Full Liquidity Sweep)
Invalidation: Clean break below 146.20 with strong bearish volume
📌 Why This Setup Works:
This setup uses Smart Money Concepts (SMC):
Weak Highs often signal institutional targets
Fair Value Gap (FVG) + Fib confluence adds strong bullish probability
Retail shorts get trapped, thinking the rally was a pullback — while institutions accumulate at discount
🧠 Pro Tip:
Watch for confirmation with a bullish engulfing candle or break of short-term structure before full entry.
Front-running the Smart Money leads to losses. Let them move first.
💬 Comment "USDJPY MOVE" if you're planning to trade this setup
💾 Save this chart for later — this is how the big players trade FX.
USDJPY
Potential bullish bounce?USD/JPY has bounced off the support level which is a pullback support that is slightly above the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could rise from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 145.89
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level which is a pullback support that is slightly above the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 144.44
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that is slightly below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 148.70
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
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USDJPY 4H BULLISH ZONEBased on the USD/JPY 4-hour chart we provided, the market is currently in an ascending channel. A recent dip from the upper boundary of the channel suggests a possible retracement before a bounce back up. The chart indicates a bullish continuation pattern with a projected move toward the top of the channel and a marked target around 148.725–148.855.
Suggested Buy Trade Setup:
Entry Zone (Buy Limit):
Near the mid-channel or support trendline: 145.50–145.80
Take Profit Levels (TPs):
1. TP1: 147.00 – conservative target (near recent highs)
2. TP2: 148.00 – key resistance and psychological level
3. TP3: 148.725 – top of the channel
4. TP4: 148.855 – potential breakout level or final target
Stop Loss (SL):
Below channel support: 144.80–145.00, depending on risk appetite
USDJPY: Bearish Trend ContinuesThe exchange rate of the US dollar against the Japanese yen continues its downward trend, further retreating from the 148.65 area (the highest level since April 3) touched earlier this week. During the European trading session, driven by multiple factors, the exchange rate dropped below 146.00. The daily chart of the US dollar against the Japanese yen shows that the exchange rate is in a downward channel. Currently, the price is retesting the important support area of 145.230, which has served as a resistance level on many occasions before. From the perspective of the Bollinger Bands indicator, the exchange rate has declined from the upper band (147.848) and is currently hovering near the middle band, indicating that the short - term downward pressure still exists.
you are currently struggling with losses, or are unsure which of the numerous trading strategies to follow, at this moment, you can choose to observe the operations within our channel.
GBPJPY breaking the F.V.G?GBPJPY after breakout of the monthly long term trend line has got rejected for potential retest of the support. As the market has left a gap untested at 193.50 level, there is a high probability for the price to drop and retest and fill that gap. Currently price is approaching a fair value gap.
As first trade closed in profit, looking for another sell entry at 1h candle close!
XAUUSD Analysis todayHello traders, this is a complete multiple timeframe analysis of this pair. We see could find significant trading opportunities as per analysis upon price action confirmation we may take this trade. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
USD/JPY H4 | Potential bullish bounce off an overlap supportUSD/JPY is falling towards an overlap support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 145.87 which is an overlap support that aligns close the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss is at 144.33 which is a level that lies underneath an overlap support.
Take profit is at 148.67 which is an overlap resistance that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
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Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
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USDJPY Will Fall! Sell!
Please, check our technical outlook for USDJPY.
Time Frame: 9h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The price is testing a key resistance 147.944.
Taking into consideration the current market trend & overbought RSI, chances will be high to see a bearish movement to the downside at least to 146.291 level.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
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USDJPY SHORT📉 TRADE IDEA – SHORT USD/JPY
🗓️ May 14, 2025
🔻 Position: Short
📍 Entry: 148.164
🎯 Target: 145.414
🛑 Stop Loss: [Set based on your risk — e.g., 148.189
Reasoning:
Rejection from resistance zone above 148
Bearish structure forming on the 4H and daily charts
Possible shift in sentiment around JPY with BoJ pressure mounting
USD weakening as Fed rate expectations tilt dovish
📉 Targeting a drop toward key support at 145.414 — a clean level on the daily chart.
This is a short- to medium-term swing trade based on technicals + macro shifts.
Risk managed, watching upcoming Fed & BoJ commentary closely.
📊 Let the trade play out.
Bullish bounce off pullback support?USD/JPY is falling towards the pivot, which is a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance identified as an overlap resistance.
Pivot: 145.78
1st Support: 144.62
1st Resistance: 148.21
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Fundamental Market Analysis for May 14, 2025 USDJPYUSDJPY:
The Japanese Yen (JPY) continues to strengthen against its US counterpart for the second consecutive day on Wednesday and reacted weakly to the Producer Price Index (PPI), which was largely unchanged. Aggressive comments from Bank of Japan (BoJ) Deputy Governor Shin'ichi Uchida on Tuesday keep the door open for further policy normalisation and continue to serve as a tailwind for the Japanese Yen. The US Dollar (USD), on the other hand, continues to be threatened by weaker US consumer inflation data released on Tuesday, which raised the odds that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates at least twice this year. This is seen as another factor putting downward pressure on the USD/JPY pair.
Meanwhile, optimism about a 90-day tariff truce between the US and China continues to keep the market upbeat. This may deter traders from aggressively bullish bets on the safe-haven yen. Nevertheless, the diverging policy expectations between the BoJ and the Fed indicate that the path of least resistance for the low-yielding Yen lies to the upside and support the prospects of further downside for the USD/JPY pair. In the absence of any market-relevant economic data from the US, traders will focus on speeches from influential FOMC members. In addition, broader risk sentiment may give the currency pair some momentum.
Trading recommendation: SELL 147.10, SL 147.30, TP 146.10
Potential bearish drop?USD/JPY has rejected off the resistance level which is an overlap resistance that is slightly below the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and could drop from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 148.25
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level that is slightly below the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 150.24
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Take profit: 145.91
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that is slightly above the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
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lease be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
USD/JPY) Bullish reversal analysis Read The ChaptianSMC Trading point update
Technical Analysis USD/JPY suggests a bullish outlook based on the following key technical components:
1. Buying Zone: The chart identifies a green rectangular area labeled "BUYING ZONE" just above the 200 EMA (blue line at 144.079). This implies that price retracement into this zone could be an opportunity to go long (buy).
2. Support & Resistance:
Support Level: Clearly marked around 143.00, showing a previous demand area.
Resistance Level: Around the 145.800–146.000 region, price previously rejected here.
3. Bullish Pattern: The curved arrow suggests the formation of a bullish continuation pattern (possibly a cup & handle or flag), with the expectation of a breakout toward the upside.
4. Target Point: The target is projected at 148.153, implying a potential move of approximately 291.7 pips from the buying zone—suggesting a favorable risk-reward ratio.
5. RSI Indicator: The RSI (Relative Strength Index) is currently around 55, not in the overbought zone, indicating more room for upside movement.
Mr SMC Trading point
Summary of Idea:
Strategy: Buy near 145.00–145.20 (Buying Zone).
Stop Loss: Just below the 200 EMA or the lower bound of the green zone.
Take Profit: Near the 148.153 target.
Confirmation: Wait for bullish confirmation/candlestick reversal in the buying zone.
Pelas support boost 🚀 analysis follow)
USDJPY Trade Plan: Long from Imbalance Zone on Bullish BOSUSDJPY Trade Idea & Analysis
Chart Context:
The 1H USDJPY chart shows a strong bullish impulse, followed by a consolidation and a potential retracement into a clear imbalance zone (highlighted between the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels, around 146.76–146.32). The market structure remains bullish, with higher highs and higher lows.
Market Fundamentals & Sentiment (as of May 2025):
USD Strength: The US dollar remains supported by persistent inflation and the Fed’s hawkish stance, with markets pricing in the possibility of further rate hikes or a prolonged period of higher rates.
JPY Weakness: The Bank of Japan continues its ultra-loose monetary policy, with no immediate signs of tightening. This divergence keeps upward pressure on USDJPY.
Risk Sentiment: Global risk appetite is stable, favoring carry trades and supporting USDJPY upside.
Trade Plan:
Look for a retrace into the imbalance zone (146.76–146.32). Enter long on a confirmed bullish break of structure (BOS) on lower timeframes. Target the recent swing highs (148.65 and above), with a stop loss below the retracement low.
Not financial advice.
USD/JPY Bullish Setup – Demand Zone Buy Opportunity Toward 151.5🔍 Chart Overview (4H Timeframe):
Currency Pair: USD/JPY
Trend: 📈 Uptrend
EMA 70: 🔴 (144.776) – Price is trading above it = Bullish Bias
---
🟦 Demand Zone
📌 Zone: 144.804 – 146.324
💡 What it means: Strong buying interest expected here
🟢 Support line + EMA = Confluence zone!
---
✅ Entry Point:
📍 Between: 146.324 – 146.423
🎯 Best area for long (buy) position
📊 Wait for a pullback to this area before entering
---
❌ Stop Loss:
📉 Below demand zone
🔻 Range: 144.705 – 144.776
🛡️ Helps protect against unexpected drop
---
🎯 Target Point:
📈 151.500
🟩 Big reward area
🔥 Previous resistance zone = Ideal profit-taking point
---
🧭 Summary:
✅ Entry: 146.324
❌ Stop: 144.776
🎯 Target: 151.500
Risk-to-Reward: Excellent!
USD/JPY 4H Analysis: Demand Zone Re-Test Before Bullish Continua1. Trend Channel
🔼 Uptrend: The pair is moving inside an ascending channel.
▪️ Support: Lower boundary of the channel.
▪️ Resistance: Upper boundary of the channel.
2. Recent Price Action
🔴 Pullback: After reaching the top at 146.199, price is retracing.
📉 Price is now heading toward the Demand Zone.
3. Demand Zone
🟦 Demand Zone (142.405 – 143.180):
This zone could act as a strong support
Buyers might step in here
Watch for bullish patterns or rejections around this area
4. EMA 70
📏 EMA 70 (143.568) is slightly below current price (143.949) — this may offer temporary support/resistance.
5. Target
🎯 Target Point: 146.194
If price bounces from demand zone, this is the next bullish target.
Possible Scenario
1. 🔽 Price dips into the Demand Zone
2. 🟢 Bullish bounce → Confirm with candlestick signals
3. 🚀 Upside move targeting 146.194
Bearish reversal off overlap resistance?USD/JPY has reacted off the pivot and could drop to the pullback support.
Pivot: 148.24
1st Support: 145.92
1st Resistance: 150.25
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Bullish bounce?The Fiber (EUR/USD) is reacting off the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 1.1085
1st Support: 1.0946
1st Resistance: 1.1267
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Japanese yen tumbles to five-week low on US-China tariff dealThe Japanese yen has started the week with sharp losses. USD/JPY is trading at 148.18, up 1.9% on the day. Earlier, the yen strengthened to 148.59, its strongest level since April 3.
The US and China have reached an agreement to slash tariffs on each other's products for 90 days. This would be a major de-escalation in the bruising tariff war between the world's two largest economies. Under the agreement, the US and China will slash tariffs by 115%, leaving US tariffs on China at 30% and China's tariffs on the US at 10%.
The tariff agreement has boosted risk appetite, sending global stock markets higher. The deal has weighed on safe-haven assets like the yen, which is sharply lower on Monday. Gold, another safe-haven, has plunged 3.1% today.
In Japan, household spending and wage growth were down in March. Household spending decelerated to 0.4% m/m, down sharply from 3.5% in February. Average Cash Earnings declined to 2.1% y/y, down from a downwardly revised 2.7% a month earlier. There was more bad news as service-sentiment for April eased, reflecting concern over US tariffs.
These numbers support the case for the Bank of Japan to continue its wait-and-see stance before raising interest rates. The BoJ wants to see inflation remain sustainable at 2%, which will require higher wage growth and stronger consumer spending.
Over the weekend, a host of Fed members made public statements. New York Fed President John Williams and Fed Governor Adriana Kugler both noted that current rate policy was in an appropriate place and suggested patience was needed. This message echoed Fed Chair Powell's remarks at last week's FOMC meeting, when he said the Fed would take a wait-and-see attitude due to the uncertainty over US tariffs.
USD/JPY has pushed above resistance at 146.83 and 147.48 and is testing resistance at 148.47. Above, there is resistance at 149.04
146.11 and 145.36 are the next support levels
you are currently struggling with losses, or are unsure which ofThe MACD indicator shows that the DIFF line has formed a golden cross with the DEA line, and the red histogram has continuously expanded, indicating that the upward trend has been established. At the same time, the RSI indicator has rebounded from the oversold area to the level of 59.777, suggesting that there is still room for the exchange rate to rise. It is worth noting that the CCI indicator has broken through the 200 level, implying that there is a possibility of a short-term technical correction.
In terms of volatility analysis, the Bollinger Bands have widened. The upper band is at 147.845 and the lower band is at 139.942, indicating that market volatility is increasing. Currently, the exchange rate is moving within an upward-sloping triangular consolidation pattern. 150 constitutes an important resistance level in the near term, while 146 forms a key support level. In the short term, if the exchange rate can effectively hold above the 148 mark, it will further confirm the continuation of the upward trend.
you are currently struggling with losses, or are unsure which of the numerous trading strategies to follow, at this moment, you can choose to observe the operations within our channel.