USDJPY
A quick glance at what's happening after the NFP releaseLet's see how markets are performing right now after we received the US NFP number for January, which showed a significant decline from the previous reading. However, average hourly earnings improved and unemployment fell to 4%. Last time we saw a reading as low as 4% was back in June of 2024.
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MARKETSCOM:GOLD
FX_IDC:USDJPY
FX_IDC:USDCAD
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Rate Hike Speculation Sends Yen SoaringThe Japanese yen strengthened past 152 per dollar, its highest in nearly two months, as expectations grow for continued BOJ rate hikes. BOJ board member Naoki Tamura suggested raising the policy rate to at least 1% by fiscal 2025. Household spending rose 2.7%, the first increase in five months, while real wages grew for a second month, supported by higher winter bonuses. Market speculation now focuses on a potential 5% wage increase in Japan's spring negotiations.
The key resistance level is 153.85, with a break above targeting 154.90 and 156.00. On the downside, major support stands at 151.25, followed by 149.20 and 147.10.
Yen eyes US payrolls, Japan household spending jumpsThe Japanese yen is in negative territory on Friday. This follows a two-day rally which saw the yen jump 1.9% and hit a three-month high. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 151.94, up 0.39% on the day. On the data front, Japan's household spending was much stronger than expected and the US releases nonfarm payrolls.
Japan's household spending has been struggling as inflation remains relatively high. This made the December report a pleasant surprise, as household spending was much higher than expected. Annually, household spending climbed 2.7%, crushing the market estimate of 0.2% and rebounding from -0.4% in November. The monthly gain of 2.3% followed the November reading of 0.4% and beat the market estimate of -0.5%.
Household spending was the strongest since Aug. 2022, driven by strong wage gains. However, it is questionable whether the impressive gain is a temporary blip, given that the December wage growth was largely driven by bonuses. Still, real wages (adjusted for inflation) rose for a second straight month in December, which supports the case for the Bank of Japan to continue raising interest rates. BoJ policy makers have been unusually candid about plans to raise rates, although the timing is uncertain, with May or August strong possibilities for the next rate hike.
The US wraps up the week with nonfarm payrolls, one of the most important economic events. The market estimate stands at 170 thousand for January, after a surprisingly strong gain of 256 thousand in December. If the January forecast is accurate, it would mark a sharp drop that would make headlines, but is close to the past three-month average.
The Federal Reserve won't be worried if job creation slows as long as the labor market is cooling at a slow pace. The Fed is expected to cut rates only once or twice this year, but that could change if inflation or the labor market provide any surprises.
USD/JPY is testing resistance at 151.86. Next, there is resistance at 152.48
150.83 and 150.21 are the next support levels
USDJPY - BoJ Interest Rate Decision?!Here is our in-depth view and update on USDJPY . Potential opportunities and what to look out for. This is a long-term overview on the pair sharing possible entries and important Key Levels.
Alright first, let’s take a step back and take a look at USDJPY from a bigger perspective. For this we will be looking at the H4 time-frame .
USDJPY is currently trading at around 155.800 . Our scenarios are in play after the BoJ (Bank of Japan) Interest Rate Decision is out. Let’s take another look at them with more in-depth outcomes. These scenarios are written from just a TA (Technical Analysis) point of view.
Scenario 1: BUYS
-We broke above 156.700 .
With the break of 156.700 we can expect a possible move up to 158.748. With a a further break of this KL (Key Level) we can expect more upside on the pair potentially reaching top of the long-term range sitting at 161.820.
Scenario 2: SELLS
-We broke below 154.881 .
If we break bellow 154.881 we can expect more downside on the pair even up to 152.000. With breaks of this level we could see even lower levels sitting at around 149.394 or “bottom of the long-term range”.
IMPORTANT KEY LEVELS:
- 161.820; top of the long-term range
- 158.748; breaks above would result in more upside
- 154.881; breaks below would result in sells
- 152.817; breaks below confirming lower levels
- 152.030; breaks below confirming lower levels
- 149.394; bottom of the long-term range
Personal opinion:
It’s not advised to enter into sells or buys before we have a clear break or the BoJ Interest Rate Decision data out. For now we are patiently waiting on either breaks to the upside or breaks to the downside. More volatility on the pair is expected tomorrow so be careful.
KEY NOTES
- USDJPY breaking above 156.700 would confirm buys.
- USDJPY breaking below 154.881 would confirm sells.
- BoJ Interest Rate Decision is tomorrow.
Happy trading!
FxPocket
Bullish reversal?USD/JPY has reacted off the pivot which is a pullback support and could rise to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 151.05
1st Support: 149.52
1st Resistance: 153.24
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
USDJPY H4 | Bullish Rise Based on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that the price has just bounced off our buy entry at 151.06, which is an overlap support that aligns with the 161.8% Fibo extension and the 78.6% Fibo retracement.
Our take profit will be at 152.68, which is an overlap resistance level that aligns with the 38.2% Fiboancci retracement.
The stop loss will be placed at 149.58, which is an overlap support level.
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Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
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CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
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CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
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Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at fxcm.com/au
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Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Levels discussed on Livestream 6th Feb 20256th Feb 2025
DXY: Retracing from 107 support area, look for reaction between 107.90 and 108.30, above 108.30 could trade up to 109.
NZDUSD: Sell 0.5640 SL 20 TP 50
AUDUSD: Buy 0.6280 SL 30 TP 80 (hesitation at 0.6330)
GBPUSD: Straddle Rates Decision Pending
Sell 1.2430 SL 30 TP 100
Buy 1.2510 SL 30 TP 100
EURUSD: Sell 1.0320 SL 30 TP 90
USDJPY: Buy 153.65 SL 40 TP 90
EURJPY: Sell 157.75 SL 40 TP 120
GBPJPY: Sell 189.70 SL 50 TP 145
USDCHF: Sell 0.90 SL 25 TP 80 (hesitation at 0.8975)
USDCAD: Buy 1.44 SL 30 TP 60
XAUUSD: Retracing, could test 2840 (50%) and bounce higher to 2900
GBP/JPY: Finally, the Rate Cut Has Arrived!GBP/JPY is facing significant bearish pressure, with the price dropping to around 188.40 in the recent sessions on February 6, 2025. The main catalyst behind this trend has been the Bank of England’s interest rate cut of 25 basis points, bringing it down to 4.5%. This decision has intensified the weakness of the British pound, prompting investors to liquidate long positions and fueling the strong decline in the pair. The market is now pricing in the possibility of further rate cuts in the coming months, which keeps sentiment firmly bearish.
From a technical perspective, the breakdown below the key level of 190.50 has confirmed the loss of bullish momentum. Even the recovery attempts seen in previous days, such as the rebound to 193.00 on February 4, have proven weak and incapable of reversing the primary trend. The current phase of weakness could lead the pair to test further lower support levels, with 187.50 and then 185.80 as possible bearish targets unless there is a positive reaction from the pound.
On the macroeconomic front, the divergence between the BoE and the Bank of Japan could theoretically provide some medium-term support for the pound, given that the BoJ continues to maintain an ultra-loose monetary policy. However, the market currently seems more focused on the deteriorating economic outlook for the UK and the increasing likelihood that the BoE will continue cutting rates, enhancing the yen’s appeal as a defensive asset. If risk-off sentiment intensifies, we could see an acceleration of the bearish trend in GBP/JPY, especially if the global market enters a more pronounced risk-averse phase.
USDJPY Is Nearing The Uptrend Combined With The Daily Support!Hey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring USDJPY for a buying opportunity around 151.500 zone, USDJPY is trading in an uptrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 151.500 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
XAU/USD: A Possible Correction? (Read the caption.)Analyzing the gold chart on the 30-minute timescale reveals that, as expected, the price corrected to $2858 following yesterday's study. However, it rapidly recovered, gaining 240 pips to set a new all-time high of $2882.
Today, we finally had a pullback from $2882 to $2848, and gold is currently trading around $2868. If the market manages to stabilize below $2873.5 and is strongly rejected from this level, we may witness a fall down to depths under $2850.
With increasing market volatility and important macroeconomic events on the horizon, traders should exercise caution. Price activity near these levels will be key in deciding the next move, as gold responds to fundamental variables such as inflation data and geopolitical developments. Monitoring price activity near support and resistance levels will be critical for spotting potential trading opportunities.
Please support me with your likes and comments to encourage me to share more analysis with you and share your thoughts on the potential trend of this chart with me!
By Nexus Trades Zone
USDJPY with a 2.95 Profit Factor on the 1-Hourly ChartI’m keeping a close eye on USDJPY right now, and here’s why:
- High Profit Factor : Target 1 offers a whopping 2.95 Profit Factor, which is quite attractive.
- Timing : Even though NFP is coming up tomorrow, this trade is on the 1-hourly chart. It’s possible that price action could reach my first target or meet the criteria that allows me to shift my stop to entry, thus achieving a risk-free trade, before the big event.
Key Points to Remember:
- Volatility Alert : NFP can cause sudden market movements. Keep that in mind and monitor your positions closely.
- Risk Management : Once the market fulfills the criteria for Target 1, I plan to shift my stop to entry. This approach helps protect any unrealized gains and reduces stress during high-volatility news.
If you’re considering this trade, stay cautious around the NFP release, and remember to include our stop-loss buffer to manage your risk effectively.
What’s your take on USDJPY heading into NFP? Are you eyeing any other setups? Share your thoughts below!
Happy trading, everyone! 🚀
EUR/USD : Get Ready for the next Bearish move (READ THE CAPTION)By analyzing the #EURUSD chart on the 3-day timeframe, we can see that after rising to the upper limit of the supply zone at 1.046 - 1.055, the price has finally corrected and is currently trading around 1.042. If the price stabilizes below this level, we can expect further declines in EURUSD.
However, keep in mind that in about 2.5 hours, we have the significant CB Consumer Confidence report, which could strongly impact the market!
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
Best Regards , Arman Shaban
Short Opened a short position based on 1H and 15 minutes.
1H MACD crossed to the downside.15 min MACD endered the bear zone.The 15 min candle closed below VWAP, EMA 21, Pivot R1, and previous day's high. S/L 159.95 and P/T 153.95 Risk: Reward 1:1.84
When the price reaches 154.5 (the previous day mid price), I will move my stop loss to the previous day high.
USDJPY Is Very Bearish! Short!
Take a look at our analysis for USDJPY.
Time Frame: 12h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is approaching a significant resistance area 154.516.
Due to the fact that we see a positive bearish reaction from the underlined area, I strongly believe that sellers will manage to push the price all the way down to 152.426 level.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Yen Strengthens Past 152 as BOJ Signals Possible 2025 Rate HikeThe yen strengthened past 152 per dollar, an eight-week high after BOJ board member Naoki Tamura suggested raising rates to 1% in late 2025. Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato warned of rising inflation, while strong wage data reinforced expectations of continued BOJ tightening. Real wages rose for a second month in December, with nominal wage growth hitting a 30-year high due to winter bonuses. The BOJ, which raised rates in January, remains open to further hikes. A weaker US dollar and lower Treasury yields, driven by mixed US data and easing trade war fears, also supported the yen.
The key resistance level appears to be 153.85, with a break above it potentially targeting 154.90 and 156.00. On the downside, 151.90 is the first major support, followed by 151.25 and 149.20 if the price moves lower.
USDJPY Good selling oportunity!Hey guys,
Based on the chart, price is identified in a descending channel and currently it reached to the top side of the mentioned channel.
Also a rejection on 15min candle is happened that can be a confirmation to our scenario.
So Based on this, I can be a valuable area for opening a sale position with reasonable risk/reward ratio (1/6).
I will update the position soon. 😊
Good luck & Have Fun!
Levels discussed on Livestream 5th Feb 20255th Feb 2025
DXY: Trading lower, needs to break 107.50 to retest 107 round number support level.
NZDUSD: Wait and look for reaction at 0.57 resistance area
AUDUSD: Buy 0.6280 SL 25 TP 80 (hesitation at 0.6325)
GBPUSD: Buy 1.2530 SL 30 TP 80
EURUSD: Sell 1.0440 SL 30 TP 100
USDJPY: Looking for reaction at current support level. Buy 154.10 or Sell 152.30 (SL 40 TP 120)
EURJPY: Buy 160.10 SL 60 TP 120
GBPJPY: Nothing for now
USDCHF: Downside to 0.8980, no H1 setup
USDCAD: Sell 1.4280 SL 40 TP 150
XAUUSD: Hit my TP at 2865, could retrace to 2841 before trading higher again to maybe 2900
USDJPY H4 | Bullish Bounce OffBased on the H4 chart, the price is testing our buy entry level at 152.158, a pullback support. This level is expected to act as a potential reversal point in the bullish setup.
Our take profit is set at 153.750, a pullback resistance
The stop loss is placed at 150.604, below the previous swing low, allowing room for price fluctuations while keeping the bullish outlook valid.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (fxcm.com/uk):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (fxcm.com/eu):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (fxcm.com/au):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at fxcm.com/au
Stratos Global LLC (fxcm.com/markets):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
SHORT | USD/JPY Yen
FX:USDJPY
USD/JPY Technical Analysis (Daily Chart)
Trend Structure:
The chart shows a trend shift from bullish to bearish.
Higher Highs (HH) and Higher Lows (HL) previously indicated an uptrend.
However, recent Lower Highs (LH) and Lower Lows (LL) confirm a bearish structure.
Support & Resistance Levels:
Immediate Support (Target Price 1): 151.316 – This level is being tested.
Major Support (Target Price 2): 149.592 – 150.000 – If 151.316 breaks, the price may drop further towards this zone.
Moving Averages:
Price has broken below both moving averages.
Trendline Break:
The rising trendline has been broken, confirming a bearish breakout.
Trade Outlook: 🔴 Bearish Bias – No Buy Signal
If 151.316 support breaks, expect a move towards 149.592 – 150.000.
Strong resistance above 153.000, meaning any bounce could be a shorting opportunity.
Bullish bounce?USD/JPY is falling towards the pivot which is an overlap support and could bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 151.91
1st Support: 151.04
1st Resistance: 153.74
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Potential rebound from support?USD/JPY is falling towards the support level which is an overlap support that is slightly below the 71% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 151.88
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level that is slightly below the 71% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 150.93
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 153.24
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
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Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.