USDJPY Is Bearish! Sell!
Here is our detailed technical review for USDJPY.
Time Frame: 1h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The price is testing a key resistance 155.154.
Taking into consideration the current market trend & overbought RSI, chances will be high to see a bearish movement to the downside at least to 154.683 level.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
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USDJPY
USDJPY | Yen Futures Weekly FOREX Forecast: Feb 3-7thThis forecast is for the upcoming week, Feb 3 - 7th.
The Yen has been week for an extended amount of time, underperforming against the USD. But the tide might be changing, this NFP week. As the USD is reacting to a HTF selling zone over the last couple of weeks, the Yen is finding buyers during that same time. This could continue for the near term.
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Dollar - Gold Market CorrelationThe Dollar (DXY) has closed extremely bullish this week. This is another confluence that we can see Gold (XAUUSD) start moving down soon or later.
As you all know the DXY & XAUUSD have negative market correlations, so when one moves up the other move down. The Dollar has been correcting down recently, which has led to Gold pushing up & creating new ATH’s. However, I now expect Dollar bulls to resume, which means we can see Gold get ready for a bear market in the mid term.
USDJPY_4HUSDJPY_4H BULLISH
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USDJPY Shorts Based on Current Re-DistributionBy combining Wyckoff and SMC principles we have a clear guide on what to expect, and what to do when it happens.
Patience is the name of the game, so set your alerts and hang tight until then.
- Option 2 could turn into a short term swing trade (until we reach daily demand levels)
Tokyo core inflation hits one-year high, yen lowerJapan's Tokyo's core inflation rate accelerated to 2.5% y/y in January, up from 2.4% in December and in line with market expectations. This marked the highest level since February 2024 and reflects rising inflationary pressure. Tokyo CPI jumped to 3.4% y/y, its highest in almost two years, as food prices rose sharply.
Tokyo core CPI is closely monitored by Bank of Japan policymakers and supports last week's central bank decision to raise interest rates by a quarter point to 0.50%. The current cash rate is far below other central banks but is the highest in Japan since the global financial crisis in 2008.The Japanese yen has reversed directions on Friday and has edged lower. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 154.73, up 0.28% on the day.
At the meeting, the BoJ revised higher its inflation forecasts and also hinted at further rate hikes. Deputy Governor Himino echoed this stance earlier this week, stating that the BoJ would consider further hikes if economic and inflation data continued to move in accordance with the Bank's projection. This flurry of hints about rate hikes is unusual for the BoJ, which tends to reveal little and keep speculators in the dark about its rate plans.
This secretive approach often results in sharp volatility from the yen after BoJ meetings, and Bank policymakers may be looking to avoid further sharp swings from the yen. It seems clear that further rate hikes are a question of time as the BoJ moves forward, albeit cautiously, towards normalization. The BoJ meets next on March 19 and investors will be looking for more clues about a possible rate hike at that time.
USD/JPY has pushed above resistance at 154.48. Next, there is resistance at 155.16
153.59 and 152.91 are the next support levels
Fundamental Market Analysis for January 31, 2025 USDJPYThe Japanese yen (JPY) underwent heavy selling during the Asian session on Tuesday and pulled back from the six-week high reached the previous day against its US counterpart. Investors remain concerned about the potential economic fallout from US President Donald Trump's trade policies, which in turn undermines the Japanese yen. In addition, a good rebound in US Treasury bond yields was another factor pushing flows away from the low-yielding yen. The recovery of the US dollar is adding to the pressure on the yen, reducing its attractiveness.
Nevertheless, a significant decline in the yen seems unlikely amid bets that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will continue to raise interest rates. On the contrary, the Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to cut interest rates twice this year, which in turn could serve as a headwind for US bond yields, the dollar and the currency pair.
Investors continue to monitor developments, including upcoming speeches by Fed and BoJ officials, as well as the publication of key economic indicators that could affect the future dynamics of USD/JPY.
Trade recommendation: Trading mainly with Sell orders from the current price level.
Yen Set for Weekly Gain Amid BOJ Signals and Strong Data The Japanese yen strengthened to 154 per dollar on Friday, set to end the week and month higher as expectations grow for more BOJ rate hikes. BOJ Deputy Governor Himino signaled further hikes if economic growth and inflation stay on track.
Friday’s data showed Tokyo’s core inflation hit an 11-month high of 2.5% in January, retail sales exceeded forecasts, industrial production rebounded, and unemployment fell unexpectedly. Meanwhile, traders await clarity on Trump’s policies after he reaffirmed 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada, with a 10% tariff on China still under review.
The key resistance level appears to be 155.60, with a break above it potentially targeting 158.70 and 160.00. On the downside, 153.80 is the first major support, followed by 151.90 and 149.20 if the price moves lower.
USD/JPY H4 | Potential bearish reversalUSD/JPY is rising towards a swing-high resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 155.69 which is a swing-high resistance that aligns with a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss is at 157.00 which is a level that sits above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and an overlap resistance.
Take profit is at 153.26 which is a swing-low support that aligns close to the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement.
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USDJPY Potential DownsidesHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring USDJPY for a selling opportunity around 154.300 zone, USDJPY is trading in a downtrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 154.300 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
Yen Strengthens, Awaits BOJ Himino's CommentsThe Japanese yen strengthened past 154.5 per dollar on Thursday, marking a second straight gain as investors awaited BOJ Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino’s remarks. Earlier this month, Himino signaled the January 24 rate hike, fueling speculation of a continued hawkish stance. The BOJ raised rates and upgraded inflation forecasts in January but remains cautious, with future decisions depending on inflation, wages, and global risks. Meanwhile, the Fed paused its rate cuts, noting inflation remains “somewhat elevated.”
Key resistance is at 155.60, with targets at 158.70 and 160.00. Support stands at 153.80, followed by 151.90 and 149.20.
Yen Slips to 155.6 as Markets Await Fed Policy DecisionThe yen trades around 155.6 per dollar, slipping after Tuesday’s loss as investors await the Fed’s policy decision. The central bank is expected to hold rates steady despite Trump’s calls for immediate cuts.
Trump’s escalating tariff threats added pressure, while safe-haven demand linked to a low-cost Chinese AI model faded. BOJ minutes showed a cautious stance on policy adjustments, though January’s rate hike and inflation forecast revisions signal potential further increases.
The key resistance level appears to be 158.60, with a break above it potentially targeting 160.00 and 161.00. On the downside, 154.90 is the first major support, followed by 153.80 and 151.90 if the price moves lower.
USD/JPY: Will the Fed or BoJ Dominate the Tug of War?The USD/JPY exchange rate has shown both resilience and vulnerability in recent trading sessions, shaped by competing factors from monetary policy shifts to global economic developments. On the positive side, the U.S. dollar remains underpinned by Federal Reserve rate decisions, with market expectations of steady rates in the near term supporting its strength. Tariff threats from the U.S. administration further bolster the dollar’s safe-haven appeal, particularly as external economic pressures persist. Additionally, the pair has demonstrated an ability to recover from lower levels, such as rebounding to 155.50 during Tuesday's Asian trading, aided by softer Japanese service-sector inflation data. However, the Japanese yen has also gained momentum due to the Bank of Japan’s recent 25 basis point rate hike, which reflects a confident stance on inflation and wage growth trends. This decision has increased the yen’s attractiveness as a safe-haven asset, exacerbating pressure on the USD/JPY pair, particularly as global uncertainties and shifts in risk sentiment encourage investors to diversify into safe havens like the yen and the Swiss franc. Market sentiment surrounding U.S. economic vulnerabilities, including concerns over tariffs and a potential dovish shift by the Federal Reserve, has further weighed on the dollar. Traders are now pricing in a 50 basis point rate cut by the Fed later this year, a factor that could erode the dollar’s appeal if realized. Overall, while USD/JPY has displayed moments of strength, the competing influences of U.S. dollar dynamics, Japanese yen strength, and global market sentiment create a volatile environment where traders must remain vigilant of economic data and central bank decisions.