FOREX Forecast UPDATES! Jan 22, WednesdayIn this video, we will update the forecasts for the following FX markets:
USD Index
EURUSD
GBPUSD
AUDUSD
NZDUSD
CAD, USDCAD
CHF, USDCHF
JPY, USDJPY
The USD Index is now reacting to the Weekly Supply Zone, turning over. There was a bearish MSS, so sells are valid. A BOS would confirm the bearish trend starting, but we need to see how the price action plays out over the next two days.
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USDJPY
USD/JPY climbs, markets eye TrumpThe Japanese yen is in negative territory on Wednesday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 156.53, up 0.68% on the day.
There are no key releases in the US today. On Thursday, the US releases unemployment claims and President Trump will address the World Economic Forum. Trump has vowed to levy tariffs on US trading partners, including China and the European Union. The financial markets are taking his threats seriously, and on Monday, his first day in office as President, Trump announced that he was delaying applying tariffs until Feb. 1. That announcement was a relief for the market and the US dollar fell sharply against many of the majors, although the yen failed to gain ground. Will Trump's comments at the World Economic Forum shake up the financial markets?
Investors are keeping a close eye on the Bank of Japan rate decision and December Core CPI on Friday. The central bank has hinted at a rate hike at the rate meeting and is widely expected to raise rates to 0.50%, which would be the highest level since the 2008 global financial crisis. After decades of deflation and an ultra-loose monetary policy, inflation has taken root and the BoJ is slowly moving towards normalization. The BoJ's tightening cycle makes it an outlier among the major central banks, most of which are easing rates in response to lower inflation.
Japan's core inflation rate has been steadily rising and is expected to climb to 3% y/y in December 2024, up from 2.7% in November which was a three-month high. The core rate, which is a key gauge of inflation trends, has remained above the BoJ target of 2% for over two years and is a key reason why the BoJ is tightening policy.
USD/JPY has pushed above resistance at 155.51 and 156.24. Above, there is resistance at 156.97
154.78 and 154.05 are the next support levels
USDJPY: Detailed Support & Resistance Analysis 🇺🇸🇯🇵
Here is my latest structure analysis and important supports
and resistances on USDJPY.
Resistance 1: 156.40 - 157.25 area
Resistance 2: 158.35 - 158.85 area
Support 1: 154.15 - 154.78 area
Support 2: 150.60 - 151.21 area
Support 3: 148.60 - 149.60 area
Consider these structures for pullback/breakout trading.
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Market Analysis: USD/JPY Corrects GainsMarket Analysis: USD/JPY Corrects Gains
USD/JPY is correcting gains and now consolidates below 156.00.
Important Takeaways for USD/JPY Analysis Today
- USD/JPY is trading in a bearish zone below the 157.00 and 156.60 levels.
- There is a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance near 155.90 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.
USD/JPY Technical Analysis
On the hourly chart of USD/JPY at FXOpen, the pair started a steady decline from well above the 158.00 zone. The US Dollar gained bearish momentum below the 157.00 support against the Japanese Yen.
The pair even settled below the 156.60 level and the 50-hour simple moving average. There was a spike below 155.00 and the pair traded as low as 154.77. It is now correcting losses and trading above the 50-hour simple moving average and the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 156.58 swing high to the 154.77 low.
Immediate resistance on the USD/JPY chart is near a connecting bearish trend line at 155.90. It is near the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 156.58 swing high to the 154.77 low.
The first major resistance is near the 156.60 zone. If there is a close above the 156.60 level and the hourly RSI moves above 60, the pair could rise toward 157.00. The next major resistance is near 157.70, above which the pair could test 158.50 in the coming days.
On the downside, the first major support is near 155.35. The next major support is near the 154.80 level. If there is a close below 154.80, the pair could decline steadily. In the stated case, the pair might drop toward the 154.00 support.
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USDJPY - Neutral Weekly: Overall Bullish. Above is IFVG reacted and moved lower. The price is at FVG.
Daily: Price broke the short-term lower low and inside FVG.
Waiting for a clear direction shift.
fundamentally, the USA is strong but recent weak data. Japan is currently planning to hike interest rates. USDJPY - Neutral.
USDJPY holding the MA50 (1d).USDJPY is trading inside a Channel Up since September.
The price has tested, held and consolidated on the MA50 (1d) for the last 4 days (including today).
This is a bullish signal, considering also that this is taking place near the bottom of the Channel Up.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 164.350 (+6.20% rise).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1d) is below its MA trendline, on a sideways pattern that is similar to the September 16th 2024 and December 3rd 2024 bottoms.
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USD/JPY - Bulls defending ?
Monday may show significant volatility in markets following Trump investiture. Where the dollar will head to remains uncertain, number of FED cuts for 2025 remain uncertain but recent NFP reports and CPI showed strength in labor market and higher inflation, leaning towards a hawkish Fed for this start of the year.
What matters for next week is Trump's investiture, market will be responsive to any type of communication from the incoming president. Trump has made it clear that he wants a weak dollar to reduce the trade deficit. Technical show that Dollar has gained incredible momentum over the past 4 weeks. There will be a clear dilemma for the markets on will Trump's politic will be inflationary (and cause Fed to hold rates higher for longer) or will he succeed in implementing a weaker dollar. Historically, Dollar fell the first months Trump was in office in 2017.
- Currently, USD/JPY FX:USDJPY is trading around a key area around 156.000 around the 4H 20 EMA. Bulls showed up on Friday.
Bulls reclaim 156.000 area of this 4H trading range:
- If dollar remains strong next week, we could see the USD/JPY continue to trade within this 4H range, which would confirm a failed breakout from this TR and put our next target on 158.000. Multiple ways to trade this, scale in if bulls strong on Monday for aggressive traders or wait to see to see consecutive 4H bull bars for entries.
-Valid fake outs often lead to aggressive moves in the opposite direction of the breakout as sellers may be trapped in a loosing trade leading to both bulls and bears buying.
DXY TVC:DXY bounced of the bullish trending line:
- The play for next week could be to see the dollar rally towards 110.000-110.500 area and see some potential reaction there, potentially some sideways trading before market decides its next move.
Remember to be careful on this, last week USD/JPY was a bear bar closing below its lower half which may be a sell signal for next week. Next week will be volatile for markets so I'd recommend lowering your trading size.
This is a C setup.
Peace,
GBP/USD: BOE Is Ready for the Big Cut!GBP/USD shows mixed signals, remaining below 1.2350, influenced by economic and political factors in both the UK and the US. After a strong rally on Monday, the pair lost momentum on Tuesday, driven by the recovery of the US Dollar and overall disappointing UK labor market data. The rise in the unemployment rate to 4.4% and a slowdown in employment growth weigh on the Pound, despite an annual wage increase of 5.6%. From a technical perspective, the RSI on the 4-hour chart signals a loss of bullish momentum, approaching the neutral level of 50 after being in the overbought zone. Key support levels are located at 1.2230 and 1.2200, while resistances are seen at 1.2350.
The Pound is also affected by an uncertain macroeconomic context, with Trump's comments indicating potential tariffs on China, Mexico, and Canada, supporting a recovery in the Dollar due to its safe-haven status. In the absence of significant US economic data, investor focus shifts to stock market performance: a negative opening on Wall Street could support the Dollar, exerting additional bearish pressure on GBP/USD. In the short term, the pair may remain under pressure, with a potential test of key support levels, unless more solid signs of Pound strength or Dollar weakness emerge.
GOLD FURTHER SELL OFF?! (UPDATE)As you can see from the last update, Gold has decided to push higher towards our 'Option 2' scenario. We've seen huge bullish momentum since the start of this year, which I'm viewing as liquidity grab for the year, before it can move down.
Gold is creating an 'Extended Flat Correction' hence why we are seeing such a long consolidation. Have to learn to exercise patience in these slow market conditions.
USD/JPY H4 | Pullback resistance at 61.8% Fibonacci retracementUSD/JPY is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 157.10 which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 159.00 which is a level that sits above a swing-high resistance.
Take profit is at 155.09 which is a multi-swing-low support that aligns close to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
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Levels discussed on 20th Jan 2025 Livestream20th January 2025
DXY: Currently below 109.40, break above, could trade up to 110 (previous swing high), beyond that, strong resistance at 111
NZDUSD: Sell 0.5575 SL 25 TP 60
AUDUSD: Sell 0.6170 SL 15 TP 40
GBPUSD: Sell 1.2150 SL 15 TP 40
EURUSD: Sell 1.0310 SL 30 TP 110
USDJPY: Buy 156.70 SL 40 TP 120
EURJPY: Sell 161.10 SL 40 TP 120
GBPJPY: Looking for reaction at 191.15
USDCHF: Choppy between 0.91 and 0.9150
USDCAD: Buy 1.4480 SL 30 TP 60
XAUUSD: Needs to stay above 2694 (trendline) to trade up to 2722 resistance
USD/JPY Under Pressure: Yen Strengthens Amid Bearish MomentumThe USD/JPY pair exhibits a clear bearish inclination, driven by a combination of economic and market factors that are strengthening the Japanese Yen and weakening the US Dollar. Currently, the pair has dropped to approximately 155.60, recording a 0.44% loss for the day, with sellers evidently attempting to push the price further toward critical support levels between 154.90 and 153.15. The downward pressure is amplified by rising expectations of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan, further supported by recent positive data such as improvements in Japan’s core machinery orders, signaling a recovery in capital expenditure. Simultaneously, uncertainty surrounding the economic policies of the Trump administration contributes to a negative climate for the US Dollar, which is already under pressure from a recent slowdown in buying flows.
From a technical perspective, the pair has encountered significant resistance in the 156.55-156.60 region, a level that halted previous recovery attempts and now acts as a key barrier. For a meaningful trend reversal, a sustained breakout above this resistance, followed by consolidation above 157.00, would be necessary to pave the way toward recent highs at 158.00 or even 158.85. However, the likelihood of a downward breakout seems more tangible, considering that the support at 155.25 represents the last defense before a drop toward the psychological level of 155.00 and further toward 154.60 and 153.30.
The current market environment, characterized by reduced trading volumes due to Martin Luther King Jr. Day in the US, suggests caution for traders, as dynamics could quickly shift with the return of liquidity and the announcement of potential monetary or political decisions in both Japan and the US. The combination of positive economic data for Japan and expectations of higher rates positions the Yen in a place of strength, while the Dollar may continue to struggle without a clear positive catalyst. Holding below 155.00 would be a significant signal for bears, indicating an extended downward trajectory toward deeper support levels.
Bullish bounce?USD/JPY is falling towards the support level which is an overlap support and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 155.02
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level.
Stop loss: 154.19
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that aligns with the 138.2% Fibonacci extension.
Take profit: 156.61
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level.
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USD/JPY calm in holiday tradeThe yen is almost unchanged on Monday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 156.37, up 0.06% on the day. We can expect a quiet day, as the US observes Martin Luther King Day and Donald Trump will be sworn in as President.
The yen is coming off a busy week, with sharp swings on each of the past three trading days. The Japanese currency gained 0.95% last week, its best week since November. Still, USD/JPY remains high and investors are anxiously awaiting the Bank of Japan rate decision on Jan. 24.
There are no tier-1 releases out of Japan this week but investors will be busy keeping an eye on the Bank of Japan rate decision on Friday. The central bank tends not to telegraph its intentions but has hinted at a rate hike and the market will be on the lookout for any hints or signals from BoJ policy makers ahead of the rate decision.
The BoJ is widely expected to raise rates to 0.50%, which would be the highest level since the 2008 global financial crisis. After decades of deflation and an ultra-loose monetary policy, inflation has taken root and the BoJ is slowly moving towards normalization.
Inflation has been above the BoJ's 2% target for almost three years and higher wage growth means that inflation should remain sustainable as it moves higher. The weak yen is another reason for the BoJ to raise rates and make the yen more attractive to investors.
The big question mark is Donald Trump, whose has promised tariffs on US trading partners, which threatens to shake up the financial markets and damage Japan's crucial export sector. The Trump factor is unlikely to prevent a rate hike this week, but supports the case for the BoJ to wait several months before delivering another rate hike.
USD/JPY tested support at 155.88 earlier. Below, there is support at 155.39
There is resistance at 156.79 and 157.28
USDJPY Is Very Bearish! Sell!
Please, check our technical outlook for USDJPY.
Time Frame: 12h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is on a crucial zone of supply 156.291.
The above-mentioned technicals clearly indicate the dominance of sellers on the market. I recommend shorting the instrument, aiming at 154.540 level.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
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GBPJPY and USDJPY Top-down analysisHello traders, this is a complete multiple timeframe analysis of this pair. We see could find significant trading opportunities as per analysis upon price action confirmation we may take this trade. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
USDJPY Short? Patience is key hereYes, price reached the white Center-Line, which means: Price is at balance.
And yes, price is at the red U-MLH, which means: price is stretched.
Two good indications that a potential breather is lurking in the throat. But I'd better wait for more evidence. More momentum to the south.
Not stalking yet, but observing on the lower time frame too.