USDJPY
USD-JPY Swing Long! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
USD-JPY has made a retest
Of the horizontal support
Of 146.540 and we are already
Seeing a bullish rebound
From where we will be
Expecting further move up
Buy!
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Japan's GDP revised downwards, yen swingsThe Japanese yen is showing movement in both directions today. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 147.37, down 0.03% on the day.
Japan's GDP expanded 2.2% y/y in the fourth quarter of 2024, lower than the initial estimate of 2.8%. The revision was expected to stay largely unchanged but was pushed lower due to a decrease in inventories and consumption.
The GDP downward revision follows other soft data which points to weakness in Japan's economy. Household spending slumped 4.5% m/m in January. This was a sharp reversal from the 2.3% gain in December and missed the estimate of -1.9%. Annualized, household spending rose 0.8%, below the 2.7% in December and the market estimate of 3.6%. On Monday, the wage growth report indicated that real wages declined by 1.8% in January, after two months of growth.
How will the Bank of Japan react to the string of weak data? The annual wage negotiations are close to the end and the BoJ has urged companies and workers to reach a deal that significantly raises wages. This would boost growth and consumption and help keep inflation sustainable at the BoJ's 2% target.
The unions are asking for an average wage hike of 6%, up from 5.85% last year and the highest in more than 20 years. Last year's wage agreement led to the BoJ raising rates for the first time since 2007 and this year's wage deal could pave the way for another rate hike. The BoJ holds its next meeting on Mar. 19, five days after the wage settlement will be announced. The BoJ isn't expected to make a move next week but investors are circling April or May as potential rate-hike meetings.
There is resistance at 147.30 and 147.97
146.59 and 145.92 are the next support levels
USDJPY Counter Trend Opportunities - Fxdollars - {11/03/2025}Educational Analysis says USDJPY may give countertrend opportunities from this range, according to my technical.
Broker - FXCM
So my analysis is based on a top-down approach from weekly to trend range to internal trend range.
The weekly trend range is long up to 170.000
Trading Range Approach is a long counter trend opportunity or pushback up to 155.000
The internal Trend Range Approach is a Long counter trend opportunity or pushback up to 150.000
or continue going down with an internal trading range or trading range up to 135.000
Let's see what this pair brings to the table for us in the future.
Please check the comment section to see how this turned out.
DISCLAIMER:-
This is not an entry signal. THIS IS ONLY EDUCATIONAL PURPOSE ANALYSIS.
I have no concerns with your profit and loss from this analysis.
I HAVE NO CONCERNS WITH YOUR PROFIT OR LOSS,
Happy Trading, Fx Dollars .
USD/JPY "The Gopher" Forex Market Bullish Heist Plan🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo! Marhaba!🌟
Dear Money Makers & Thieves, 🤑 💰🐱👤
Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the USD/JPY "The Gopher" Forex market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes long entry. Our aim is the high-risk Red Zone. Risky level, overbought market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bearish robbers are stronger. 🏆💸Book Profits wealthy and safe trade.💪🏆🎉
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however I advise to Place Buy stop orders above the Moving average (or) Place buy limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe most recent or swing, low or high level.
Stop Loss 🛑:
Thief SL placed at the recent / swing low level Using the 1H timeframe (148.600) swing trade basis.
SL is based on your risk of the trade, lot size and how many multiple orders you have to take.
Target 🎯: 152.300 (or) Escape Before the Target
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📰🗞️Fundamental, Macro, COT, Sentimental Outlook:
USD/JPY "The Gopher" Forex Market is currently experiencing a bullish trend,., driven by several key factors.
🔰 Fundamental Analysis
- The Bank of Japan's (BOJ) monetary policy decisions significantly impact the yen's value. The BOJ's negative interest rate policy and quantitative easing program have contributed to the yen's depreciation.
- The US Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions also influence the USD/JPY exchange rate. Higher interest rates in the US can attract investors, causing the dollar to appreciate.
- Japan's trade balance and current account deficit can impact the yen's value. A large trade deficit can lead to a depreciation of the yen.
🔰 Macroeconomic Factors
- Inflation: Japan's inflation rate has been relatively low, which can impact the BOJ's monetary policy decisions.
- GDP Growth: Japan's GDP growth rate has been slow, which can impact the yen's value.
- Unemployment Rate: Japan's unemployment rate has been relatively low, which can impact the labor market and inflation.
🔰 COT Data
- Non-Commercial Traders: These traders, including hedge funds and individual investors, hold a significant portion of the USD/JPY futures market.
- Commercial Traders: These traders, including banks and other financial institutions, hold a smaller portion of the USD/JPY futures market.
🔰 Market Sentiment Analysis
- Bullish Sentiment: Some investors are bullish on the USD/JPY due to the interest rate differential between the US and Japan.
- Bearish Sentiment: Others are bearish due to concerns about Japan's economy and the potential for the BOJ to intervene in the currency market.
🔰 Positioning
- Long Positions: Some investors have taken long positions in the USD/JPY, betting on a continuation of the uptrend.
- Short Positions: Others have taken short positions, betting on a reversal of the uptrend.
🔰 Next Trend Move
- The USD/JPY may continue its uptrend if the interest rate differential between the US and Japan remains significant.
- However, if the BOJ intervenes in the currency market or if Japan's economy shows signs of improvement, the uptrend may reverse.
🔰 Overall Summary Outlook
The USD/JPY currency pair is influenced by a combination of fundamental, macroeconomic, and market sentiment factors. While some investors are bullish on the pair due to the interest rate differential, others are bearish due to concerns about Japan's economy. The next trend move will depend on various factors, including the BOJ's monetary policy decisions and Japan's economic performance.
⚠️Trading Alert : News Releases and Position Management 📰 🗞️ 🚫🚏
As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions,
we recommend the following:
Avoid taking new trades during news releases
Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits
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USDJPY Falling Wedge Breakout: 300 Pips Bullish Move AheadUSDJPY is currently trading at 147.50, having recently broken out of a falling wedge pattern, a strong bullish reversal signal. After the breakout, the pair has completed its retesting phase, confirming support at lower levels. With bullish momentum building, we now expect an upward move toward the 152.50 target, implying a 300 pips gain from current levels.
From a technical analysis perspective, the falling wedge is a well-known bullish continuation pattern, indicating that sellers have weakened and buyers are stepping in. Now that the retest is complete, the next key resistance levels to watch are 149.50 and 151.00, with 152.50 being the final target. Support levels are now formed at 146.50 and 145.80, where buyers could step in if any short-term pullback occurs.
On the fundamental side, USDJPY is influenced by Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan monetary policy differences. The Fed's hawkish stance and rising U.S. Treasury yields continue to support USD strength. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan's ultra-loose policy keeps the yen weaker, allowing the bullish USDJPY momentum to continue. Additionally, risk sentiment and global economic trends favor the dollar as a safe-haven asset.
With the falling wedge breakout confirmed and fundamentals supporting further gains, USDJPY looks poised for a strong bullish rally. Traders should monitor volume and price action for confirmation, as a push above 149.50 could accelerate the move toward 152.50. This setup presents a great opportunity to capture a high-probability trade in the coming sessions.
USD/JPY H4 | Heading into an overlap resistanceUSD/JPY is rising towards an overlap resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 148.20 which is an overlap resistance that aligns with a confluence of Fibonacci levels i.e. the 23.6% and 38.2% retracements.
Stop loss is at 149.45 which is a level that sits above the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement and a swing-high resistance.
Take profit is at 146.53 which is a swing-low support.
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Safe-Haven Yen Gains on Economic Risks, BOJ Policy UncertaintyThe yen rose to 147 per dollar, its strongest in five months, as US recession fears fueled safe-haven demand. Trump acknowledged economic risks, while Japan’s GDP growth was revised down to 2.2% from 2.8% due to weak consumption. The BOJ is expected to hold rates in March but may hike later this year. Finance Minister Kato warned of the real-world impact of FX volatility.
Key resistance is at 149.20, with further levels at 152.00 and 154.90. Support stands at 147.00, followed by 145.80 and 143.00.
USDJPYI don't usually trade using the RSI strategy, but for some reason, I decided to take a look at it. What I found was a very strong divergence on the 4-hour timeframe, which has been developing over 72 candles—a significant number. Based on this, I expect this candle to be the reversal candle signaling an upward move toward the targets mentioned above.
Trade safely
USD/JPY Struggles as Key Fibonacci Support Comes into FocusUSD/JPY has extended its decline, now testing the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level near 146.95, a key support zone. The pair remains under pressure after failing to reclaim 151.50, where the 38.2% retracement and the 200-day EMA converge.
Key Technical Observations:
Fibonacci Support Test: The 61.8% retracement level is being challenged, making this a critical decision point. A confirmed breakdown below 146.95 could open the door toward 143.70 (78.6% retracement).
Bearish EMAs: The 50-day EMA and 200-day EMA are sloping downward, reinforcing the bearish momentum.
Momentum Indicators:
RSI is approaching oversold levels, suggesting a short-term bounce could emerge. However, the broader trend remains weak.
MACD remains in negative territory, signaling continued downside pressure.
Key Levels to Watch:
Support: 146.95 (61.8% retracement), 143.70 (78.6% retracement).
Resistance: 149.20 (50% retracement) and 151.50 (200-day EMA & 38.2% retracement).
USD/JPY is at a critical juncture. Holding 146.95 could trigger a short-term rebound, but failure to do so would reinforce the bearish case, targeting the mid-143s. Bulls need to reclaim at least 149.20 to shift the structure back toward neutral.
-MW
USDJPY: Will Start Growing! Here is Why:
The price of USDJPY will most likely increase soon enough, due to the demand beginning to exceed supply which we can see by looking at the chart of the pair.
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USDJPY and GBPJPY AnalysisHello traders, this is a complete multiple timeframe analysis of this pair. We see could find significant trading opportunities as per analysis upon price action confirmation we may take this trade. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
Surging yen hits 5-month high, wage data mixedThe Japanese yen has started the week with strong gains. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 147.07, down 0.766 on the day. Earlier, the yen strengthened to 146.72, its best level since Oct. 4, 2024.
Japan's wage data for January was mixed. Base pay for Japanese workers jumped by 3.1% y/y but more importantly, inflation-adjusted real wages declined by 1.8%. This follows two consecutive months of gains and signals that inflation has outpaced growth.
The wage report was released just days before the end of annual wage negotiations at Japan's largest companies. The largest labor union in Japan is demanding large wage hike of 6% and the Bank of Japan wants to see a strong rise in wages in order to keep inflation sustainable at the 2% level.
The BoJ has urged companies and workers to reach a deal that significantly raises wages. The central back meets next week and is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged. Still, the Bank has signaled it plans to continue raising rates during the year.
In the US, nonfarm payrolls rose to 151 thousand in February, up from a downwardly revised 125 thousand in January but shy of the market estimate of 160 thousand. The unemployment rate rose to 4.1% from 4%. Wage growth eased to 0.3% m/m from a revised 0.4% in January, in line with expectations. Annualized, wages ticked higher to 4%, up from a revised 3.9% in January but below the market estimate of 4.1%.
The employment report was decent but the threat of US tariffs continues to cloud the economic outlook. If trade tensions escalate, the Federal Reserve may have to adjust its rate path, depending on how tariffs affect inflation and growth.
USD/JPY has pushed below support at 147.26 and is testing support t 147.26. Next is support at 1.46.48
148.51 and 148.98 are the next resistance lines
USDJPY Potential DownsidesHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring USDJPY for a selling opportunity around 147.500 zone, USDJPY is trading in a downtrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 147.500 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
USD/JPY BULLS WILL DOMINATE THE MARKET|LONG
Hello, Friends!
USD/JPY downtrend evident from the last 1W red candle makes longs trades more risky, but the current set-up targeting 150.469 area still presents a good opportunity for us to buy the pair because the support line is nearby and the BB lower band is close which indicates the oversold state of the USD/JPY pair.
✅LIKE AND COMMENT MY IDEAS✅
JPY Market Analysis Update – Key Level at 148.000Market Overview:
📈 Strong JPY Performance:
Expectations of another BoJ rate hike have pushed the Japanese Yen to perform strongly in the Asia-Pacific region.
📊 Record Net Long Positions:
Non-commercial traders' net long yen futures surged to 96K contracts (up from 61K), setting a 30-year record according to CFTC data.
Technical Insights:
📉 Descending Channel & Reversal Setup:
While bearish pressure has been evident, momentum is showing signs of easing, hinting at a potential stabilization or near-term bounce. A reversal setup is identified in the 147.000/148.000 zone.
🎯 Key Level:
Next week, the crucial level is 148.000. Be prepared for a buy signal if prices break above, or a sell signal if they remain below this level.
Upcoming Catalysts:
⏰ Fed Policy Uncertainty:
With Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicating that rate cuts are not imminent, this policy uncertainty could favor the US Dollar in the coming week, influencing the JPY further.
Keep an eye on the Consumer Price Index, Producer Price Index, and Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.
Stay Tuned:
I'll provide a detailed update at the beginning of next week. Follow along for more insights and actionable trading strategies!
Happy Trading!
Disclaimer:
Forex and other market trading involve high risk and may not be for everyone. This content is educational only—not financial advice. Always assess your situation and consult a professional before investing. Past performance doesn’t guarantee future results.
Could the price bounce from here?USD/JPY is reacting off the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance which acts as an overlap resistance.
Pivot: 146.90
1st Support: 144.74
1st Resistance: 149.28
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Bullish rebound?USD/JPY is falling towards the support level which is a pullback support that lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce form this level to our take profit.
Entry: 146.95
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Stop loss: 143.76
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that is slightly below the 138.2% Fibonacci extension.
Take profit: 150.92
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level that line sup with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
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CADJPY - Take Advantage of This Clean Correction!CADJPY Daily Timeframe
CADJPY has shown a clear impulse in July 2024. We are now in a massive correction, consisting of 3 major waves, ABC. It appears we have almost completed Wave B and now we are anticipating wave C.
We expect wave C to push up to the corrective highs where we have the 61.8 fib.
Here are some key things to watch:
- Wave Structure: Ensure that Wave B has completed its corrective pattern
- Wave C Confirmation: Look for a strong bullish impulse off the lows of Wave B.
- Volume & Momentum: A rise in volume and bullish divergence in RSI/MACD could confirm Wave C is underway.
Confirmation for Wave C:
Break of Structure (BOS) / Trendline Break
When identifying confirmation for Wave C, a Break of Structure (BOS) or a Trendline Break is one of the strongest signals that the corrective phase is ending.
Break of Structure (BOS) – Key Levels to Watch
Wave B typically forms lower highs and lower lows. A break above the last lower high signals a bullish shift.
Look for a decisive close above the previous swing high on the 4H or daily timeframe. A weak break (with wicks) may indicate hesitation.
A higher low after the break adds extra confirmation.
Trendline Break – Reversal Signal
If Wave B formed a descending trendline, watch for a clean breakout with strong bullish candles (not just wicks).
Retest of the trendline as support after the breakout strengthens the case for Wave C starting.
Trade Idea:
- Watch for Wave C to start using the techniques listed above
- Once entered, keep stops below wave B
- Targets: 107 (500pips), 112 (1000pips)
Goodluck and as always trade safe!
See below for our previous swing setups:
Swing Setup 1
Swing Setup 2
Swing Setup 3
NZDJPY - 2025 Plan. Make It Your Best Year Yet!Here we have the 2 Day chart for NZDJPY.
We've seen a massive impulse mid 2024. We are now in an ABC correction.
We are currently in wave B of the correction, subwave B. Expecting subwave C to complete wave B.
We're looking for a rejection of the fib zone and a drop of over 700pips.
Trade idea:
- Watch for rejection of fib zone
- Once rejection appears, enter with stops above the highs
- Targets: 86 (350pips), 83 (700pips)
Once we've completed this move down, we'll be looking for longs. We'll update this setup if there's enough engagement.
Goodluck and as always, trade safe!
AUDJPY - Growing SHORTS! Big Move Ahead!In one of our last AUDJPY analysis, we indicated that price looked foppish. Since then, we've had almost a 2000pip drop!
That big drop can be marked as wave 1 in our new bearish impulsive trend.
We are now in Wave 2, which is an ABC correction. We have completed Wave A (3 waves). We are now in Wave B (3 waves). We're currently in subwave b of wave B. Expecting subwave c to appear very soon.
Trade Idea:
- Watch for bearish price action on lower timeframe
- You can use trendline break, fibs or BOS to find the reversal point
- When entered, put stops above subwave B.
- Target: 91 (750pips)
4Week Chart
Goodluck and as always, trade safe!
See our previous setups below: