USDJPY – Diverging Policies Drive Yen into Pressure Zone near 14USDJPY – Diverging Policies Drive Yen into Pressure Zone near 144
🌍 Macro Landscape: JPY Stuck Between Two Diverging Forces
In recent weeks, the US dollar has regained strength as the Federal Reserve remains committed to its "higher-for-longer" interest rate stance. On the flip side, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is maintaining an ultra-loose monetary policy, widening the yield spread between the USD and JPY, and putting pressure on the yen.
The surge in US 10-year yields toward 4.5% is further dampening demand for JPY as a safe haven, prompting institutional capital outflows from the yen and inflows into USD-based assets.
🏦 Central Bank Policy Divergence: Fed Remains Firm, BoJ Stays Dovish
Federal Reserve: FOMC members continue to signal patience on rate cuts. Recent inflation data (PCE, CPI) shows sticky price pressure, especially in services.
Bank of Japan: BoJ remains hesitant to normalize policy despite inflation consistently above the 2% target.
This policy divergence is reminiscent of the conditions that pushed USDJPY above 151 last year — and current dynamics hint that history may repeat.
🌐 Capital Flows: JPY Loses Safe-Haven Appeal
Global capital flow models indicate a major shift. While gold and the US dollar are once again sought-after hedges amid US-China tensions and EU fiscal risk, the Japanese yen is being overlooked.
Japan’s debt-to-GDP ratio — the highest in the G7 — forces BoJ to maintain low rates to keep the fiscal structure sustainable. As a result, JPY is no longer viewed as a reliable store of safety.
📊 Technical Structure: Momentum Building Toward 144.1
On the H1 chart:
Price bounced sharply from the 142.33 demand zone, forming a higher low.
EMA 13 – 34 – 89 show a bullish alignment ("fan-out formation") confirming short-term bullish momentum.
Resistance near 144.13–144.20 is key: a clean breakout could trigger an extended rally to 145.00+
However, this zone may also trigger profit-taking, especially if traders react to upcoming macro data.
🎯 Trade Strategy Recommendations
Scenario 1 – Buy the Pullback (Preferred):
Entry: 142.70 – 142.90
Stop-Loss: 142.30
Take-Profit: 143.80 → 144.13 → 144.60
Scenario 2 – Breakout Momentum Buy:
Entry: 144.15
Stop-Loss: 143.70
Take-Profit: 145.00 → 145.50
⚠️ Key Events to Watch:
US PCE Price Index (April): If hotter-than-expected, this would reinforce the Fed’s hawkish tone and lift USD.
BoJ Governor Speech (end of week): Any unexpected hawkish shift could trigger a short-term rebound in JPY.
USDJPY
USDJPY Will Go Lower From Resistance! Sell!
Please, check our technical outlook for USDJPY.
Time Frame: 12h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is testing a major horizontal structure 145.469.
Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 142.516 level soon.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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USDJPY – Bearish Channel Holds, Eyes on Support BreakUSDJPY is currently trading within a clearly defined bearish channel on the 3H timeframe, consistently forming lower highs and lower lows. After a slight bounce from the 142.50 support zone, the price is now heading toward the 143.30 resistance area — which aligns with the upper boundary of the channel. This is a zone likely to face rejection and renewed selling pressure.
On the news front, Moody’s recently downgraded the U.S. credit rating due to concerns over prolonged budget deficits, putting pressure on the USD. Although the interest rate gap between the Fed and the BoJ still favors the dollar, current market sentiment is making it harder for USDJPY to maintain a strong rally.
If the 143.30 resistance holds, the price is likely to be pushed back down to retest the 141.07 support zone — a previous low and the lower boundary of the descending channel. A confirmed break below this level would signal further downside, with the next target below the 140.00 mark.
USD/JPY H4 | Overhead pressures remain?USD/JPY is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 143.27 which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss is at 144.42 which is a level that sits above the 23.6% and 78.6% Fibonacci retracements and a swing-high resistance.
Take profit is at 141.96 which is a multi-swing-low support.
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Bullish bounce off overlap support?USD/JPY is falling towards the support level which is an overlap support and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 142.12
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level.
Stop loss: 140.16
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that is slightly above the 145% Fibonacci extension.
Take profit: 144.58
Why we lik eit:
There is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
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Falling towards pullback support?USD/JPY is falling towards the pivot which is a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance which acts as a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 140.70
1st Support: 137.16
1st Resistance: 145.54
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WHO LOVES A STRONG JPY ( YEN )BASKET FORECAST Q2 W22 Y25WHO LOVES A STRONG JPY ( YEN )BASKET FORECAST Q2 W22 Y25
Professional Risk Managers👋
Welcome back to another FRGNT chart update📈
Diving into some Forex setups using predominantly higher time frame order blocks alongside confirmation breaks of structure.
Let’s see what price action is telling us today!
✅The JPY Basket tracks the overall strength of the JPY against a weighted average of other currencies.
✅It can be used as an indicator of YEN strength which can be a tool for analysing and potentially hedging for or against the Index.
✅ Pairs to watch - GBPJPY, USDJPY EURJPY, CADJPY, AUDJPY
🔑 Remember, to participate in trading comes always with a degree of risk, therefore as professional risk managers it remains vital that we stick to our risk management plan as well as our trading strategies.
📈The rest, we leave to the balance of probabilities.
💡Fail to plan. Plan to fail.
🏆It has always been that simple.
❤️Good luck with your trading journey, I shall see you at the very top.
🎯Trade consistent, FRGNT X
USD/JPY Breakdown Incoming? 4 Powerful Signals Say 'Short Now'! The current landscape for USD/JPY signals a potential bearish reversal, supported by a convergence of technical, sentiment, and fundamental factors. Following a strong bullish leg from the 140 zone, price has reached the 146–147 resistance area, where it is currently being rejected. Price action has broken below the ascending channel that began in early April, suggesting a loss of bullish momentum and a possible transition into a deeper corrective phase.
From the COT (Commitment of Traders) perspective, the picture aligns with this bias. Non-commercials on the USD Index (DXY) are aggressively reducing exposure on both long and short sides, resulting in a net position of -615 contracts. This reflects growing uncertainty or waning confidence in dollar strength as U.S. monetary policy enters a potential pivot zone. Meanwhile, JPY futures still show a strong net long position by speculators (194,226 long vs. 21,958 short), even after a significant long liquidation of over 9,700 contracts. Commercial traders, typically positioned opposite to trend, remain heavily net short—hinting at possible strength ahead for the yen.
Seasonality adds further weight: May is historically a bearish month for USD/JPY. The 5, 10, and 15-year averages all show negative returns, with a structural downside tendency, especially in the final two weeks of the month.
Retail sentiment further supports this case. Data shows that 68% of retail traders are currently long USD/JPY. Interpreting this through a contrarian lens, it implies growing downside potential, as over-positioned retail traders often precede a move in the opposite direction.
Lastly, technical analysis (daily timeframe) reinforces the bearish scenario. The break below the bullish channel invalidates the recent structure, and the RSI is trending lower with plenty of room to move down before hitting oversold levels. Immediate support zones lie between 143 and 141. A potential retest of 145.80–146.30 would offer a favorable entry for fresh shorts in line with a developing bearish swing structure.
🎯 Conclusion
All elements—technical structure, COT data, seasonal weakness, and retail sentiment—are converging toward a bearish USD/JPY outlook. Institutional traders are cutting dollar longs, seasonal forces are negative, and retail positioning is overly long. With price structure now broken, the bearish bias is well supported, targeting 143 first and 141 as a deeper move, pending price action confirmation.
USDJPY Just Flipped — Liquidity Has a New Target🧠 Smart Money Breakdown: USDJPY | 15-Min Chart
We’ve got a textbook bearish reversal setup forming right now on USDJPY, and Smart Money traders are paying close attention.
🔄 1. Change of Character (ChoCh)
The first key sign was a ChoCh, which flipped the internal structure from bullish to bearish. This signals a potential shift in market control from buyers to sellers — Smart Money often initiates big moves after such a flip.
🟫 2. Bearish Order Block + Rejection Wick
Price pulled back right into a fresh bearish Order Block (OB) around the 148.056–148.337 zone. This OB lines up perfectly with the upper trendline + internal liquidity area.
Price is now rejecting hard from this level, signaling Smart Money sell-side pressure.
🕳 3. Fair Value Gap (FVG) Below
Below current price lies a clean FVG, serving as a magnet for price. Smart Money often targets these imbalances to rebalance the market.
The gap extends from around 146.200 to 147.400 — with Sell Side Liquidity resting right below at 145.872. That’s the likely kill zone. 💀
📐 4. Trade Setup (R:R Approx. 3.5:1)
🔼 Entry Zone: 147.980–148.050 (inside OB)
❌ Stop Loss: Just above OB: 148.400
✅ Target: 145.872 (Sell Side Liquidity sweep)
Perfect for swing traders and intraday SMC setups.
📊 Strategy:
Look for:
Bearish engulfing candle confirmation
Break of minor internal low (lower TF BOS)
Entry on OB rejection with tight SL above high
Bonus: Enter partials on FVG fill, hold runner to liquidity.
📎 Confluences:
✅ ChoCh confirmed
✅ Bearish OB
✅ Price rejecting from premium zone
✅ FVG below = imbalance magnet
✅ Sell-side liquidity clearly marked
⚠️ Risk Reminder:
Let price show intent before jumping in
Use confirmation, not assumption
Trade what the chart says, not what you hope
🔚 Summary:
Smart Money has flipped the script. With a strong ChoCh, OB rejection, and an FVG inviting price lower, this setup screams bearish continuation.
🔻 Expecting a clean run into liquidity. Stay sharp. 🧠
💬 Drop a “💀” if you’re eyeing the same setup.
📈 Follow for more clean SMC plays weekly.
USDJPY: Smart Money Reloads at Demand ZoneThis pair is showing some next-level institutional behavior right now, and the play is looking ripe for a long position — here's why:
📉 Previous Sell-Off = Liquidity Engineering
USDJPY had a strong downward leg creating a perfect internal liquidity pool, then took out that internal high (marked by triple liquidity tags 💵💵💵) just above a descending channel. That was your classic fakeout / inducement trap.
🎯 Price Tapped Into a Fresh Bullish Order Block
Price dipped deep into a refined OB (purple zone) aligned with the lower channel and then wicked hard out of it. That move created a bullish rejection wick, confirming buyer interest from smart money.
You can see price forming a micro HL structure at the edge of the demand zone — premium setup for continuation.
📍 Key Confluences:
✅ OB sits right around the mid-channel EQ
✅ Demand zone is built on top of a strong low (142.680 area)
✅ Strong risk-to-reward setup aiming for weak high and buy-side liquidity
✅ Rejection aligns with a bullish change of character (ChoCh) from lower timeframes
💥 Targets:
🔹 TP1 - Weak High at 144.400
🔹 TP2 - Buy Side Liquidity sweep at 145.514
🔹 Extended Target - Ride it to channel top / HTF imbalance fill above 146.000
📈 Trade Idea Summary:
Entry Zone: Anywhere in the OB range from 143.554 to 143.189
Stop Loss: Below 143.000 or the strong low
Risk-Reward: Easily 1:5+ if targeting full range move
🚨 Why It Matters:
This chart screams smart money accumulation at the bottom of a channel. Retail traders might still be shorting the retracement — but smart money is loading longs while price consolidates at demand.
If price clears the weak high, it could ignite a bullish rally into the upper supply zones where liquidity lies.
💬 Comment "UJ MOVE" if you're entering this sniper long!
🔁 Repost this if you’re tracking it with your team!
USD-JPY Free Signal For Monday! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
USD-JPY is about to retest
A horizontal support level
Around 142.000 and after
The retest on Monday we
Will be able to go long on
The pair with the Take
Profit of 143.331 and the
Stop Loss of 141.939
Buy!
Comment and subscribe to help us grow!
Check out other forecasts below too!
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
USD/JPY "The Gopher" Forex Bank Bullish Heist Plan (Swing Trade)🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo! Marhaba!🌟
Dear Money Makers & Robbers, 🤑 💰💸✈️
Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the USD/JPY "The Gopher" Forex Market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes long entry. Our aim is to escape near the high-risk Yellow MA Zone. Risky level, overbought market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bearish robbers are stronger. 🏆💸"Take profit and treat yourself, traders. You deserve it!💪🏆🎉
Entry 📈 : The vault is wide open! Swipe the Bullish loot at any price - the heist is on!
Place buy limit orders most recent or swing, low level for Pullback entries.
Stop Loss 🛑:
📍 Thief SL placed at the recent/swing low level Using the 4H timeframe (138.500) Day/Swing trade basis.
📍 SL is based on your risk of the trade, lot size and how many multiple orders you have to take.
🏴☠️Target 🎯: 147.500 (or) Escape Before the Target
🧲Scalpers, take note 👀 : only scalp on the Long side. If you have a lot of money, you can go straight away; if not, you can join swing traders and carry out the robbery plan. Use trailing SL to safeguard your money 💰.
💰💵💸USD/JPY "The Ninja" Forex Money Heist Plan is currently experiencing a bullishness,., driven by several key factors. .☝☝☝
📰🗞️Get & Read the Fundamental, Macro, COT Report, Quantitative Analysis, Sentimental Outlook, Intermarket Analysis, Future trend targets & Overall Score... go ahead to check 👉👉👉🔗🔗🌎🌏🗺
⚠️Trading Alert : News Releases and Position Management 📰 🗞️ 🚫🚏
As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions,
we recommend the following:
Avoid taking new trades during news releases
Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits
💖Supporting our robbery plan 💥Hit the Boost Button💥 will enable us to effortlessly make and steal money 💰💵. Boost the strength of our robbery team. Every day in this market make money with ease by using the Thief Trading Style.🏆💪🤝❤️🎉🚀
I'll see you soon with another heist plan, so stay tuned 🤑🐱👤🤗🤩
USDJPY Short Setup – Bearish Breakout WatchBias: ✅ Strong Sell
Timeframe: 4H
Pair: USDJPY
Week: 26–30 May 2025
🔍 Technical Setup:
USDJPY is sitting on a critical support zone around 142.55. A decisive break and 4H close below this level would confirm a bearish continuation.
Entry: Break below 142.55
Stop Loss: Above resistance at 142.80
Take Profit: Major support around 140.05
Risk-Reward Ratio: ~4R
Structure: Lower highs, pressure on demand – momentum building
🧠 Macro Confluence:
📉 USD Weakness: Dovish Fed, worsening macro (Investogenie Score 1.8 ↓)
💴 JPY Strength: Seasonal bias, bullish COT positioning, risk-off sentiment
🧾 COT: JPY net long positions at 92% RSI
📊 Conditional Scores: JPY ↑, USD ↓
⚠️ Risk Sentiment: VIX 22.68 – risk-off favors JPY
⚠️ Risk Notes:
Wait for confirmation candle before entry
Watch FOMC + GDP (USD) for volatility spikes
Consider scaling in on retest of broken support
📌 Let the level break before jumping in. Precision matters.
Share your thoughts or charts below 👇
USDJPY: Long Signal Explained
USDJPY
- Classic bullish setup
- Our team expects bullish continuation
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Long USDJPY
Entry Point - 142.56
Stop Loss - 141.39
Take Profit - 144.82
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
❤️ Please, support our work with like & comment! ❤️
USD/JPY "The Ninja" Forex Bank Money Heist (Bullish)🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo! Marhaba!🌟
Dear Money Makers & Robbers, 🤑 💰💸✈️
Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the USD/JPY "The Ninja" Forex Market Heist. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes long entry. Our aim is to escape near the high-risk YELLOW MA Zone. It's a Risky level, overbought market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bearish robbers are stronger. 🏆💸"Take profit and treat yourself, traders. You deserve it!💪🏆🎉
Entry 📈 : "The vault is wide open! Swipe the Bullish loot at any price - the heist is on!
however I advise to Place buy limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe most recent or swing, low or high level. I Highly recommended you to put alert in your chart.
Stop Loss 🛑:
Thief SL placed at the Nearest / Swing low level Using the 1H timeframe (143.000) Day trade basis.
SL is based on your risk of the trade, lot size and how many multiple orders you have to take.
🏴☠️Target 🎯: 147.000
💰💵💸USD/JPY "The Ninja" Forex Money Heist Plan is currently experiencing a bullishness,., driven by several key factors. .☝☝☝
📰🗞️Get & Read the Fundamental, Macro, COT Report, Quantitative Analysis, Sentimental Outlook, Intermarket Analysis, Future trend targets.... go ahead to check 👉👉👉🔗🔗🌎🌏🗺
⚠️Trading Alert : News Releases and Position Management 📰🗞️🚫🚏
As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions,
we recommend the following:
Avoid taking new trades during news releases
Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits
💖Supporting our robbery plan 💥Hit the Boost Button💥 will enable us to effortlessly make and steal money 💰💵. Boost the strength of our robbery team. Every day in this market make money with ease by using the Thief Trading Style.🏆💪🤝❤️🎉🚀
I'll see you soon with another heist plan, so stay tuned 🤑🐱👤🤗🤩
Japan's Bond Market Crisis: A Global WarningIntroduction: The Shattering of an Illusion
Japan’s government bond market, the world’s second-largest, has long been a cornerstone of global financial stability. With a debt-to-GDP ratio exceeding 260%, Japan’s fiscal structure has relied on a captive bond market, a compliant central bank, and a political system willing to defer fiscal reckoning. Yet, in May 2025, this delicately balanced system began to unravel. For two consecutive days, Japan’s 30-year and 40-year government bonds (JGBs) found no buyers, marking a historic collapse in confidence. The 20-year JGB auction recorded its weakest demand since 2012, with yields on 20-, 30-, and 40-year bonds soaring to multi-decade highs. This isn’t a minor market hiccup—it’s a structural breakdown with global implications.
This article explores the causes, consequences, and global ramifications of Japan’s bond market crisis, positioning it as a warning for other heavily indebted nations, particularly the United States. We’ll examine the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) yield curve control (YCC) policy, the erosion of fiscal credibility, the unwinding of the yen carry trade, and the ripple effects on global bond markets, the US dollar, and gold as a safe-haven asset. By dissecting these dynamics, we aim to provide a comprehensive understanding of why Japan’s crisis matters and how it could foreshadow a broader sovereign debt reckoning.
The Anatomy of Japan’s Bond Market Breakdown
A Captive Market Unravels
Japan’s bond market has been a model of repression for decades. Domestic investors—pension funds, banks, and insurance companies—have been compelled to hold JGBs due to limited investment alternatives and cultural preferences for stability. The BoJ, holding 43.3% of JGBs as of January 2025, has underpinned this system through massive bond purchases, ensuring low yields even as debt ballooned to 1.35 quadrillion yen ($8.84 trillion).
However, this captive market is no longer captive. The May 2025 auctions revealed a stark reality: investors are recoiling. The 20-year JGB auction saw a bid-to-cover ratio—the measure of demand—plummet to its lowest since 2012, with the spread between investor bids and government offers (the “tail”) reaching its worst level since 1987. Yields on 20-year bonds hit 2.555% (highest since 2000), 30-year bonds reached 3.185% (a record since 1999), and 40-year bonds surged to 3.635% (an all-time high). These spikes reflect a market no longer willing to absorb Japan’s debt at suppressed yields.
The End of Yield Curve Control
The BoJ’s yield curve control (YCC) policy, introduced in 2016, capped 10-year JGB yields to maintain low borrowing costs. By purchasing bonds en masse, the BoJ suppressed volatility and ensured market liquidity. However, as inflation rose above the BoJ’s 2% target (reaching 3.6% overall CPI in 2025), the central bank began tapering its purchases, signaling a shift from ultra-loose policy.
This tapering has exposed the fragility of YCC. The long end of the yield curve—30- and 40-year bonds—is most sensitive to inflation and fiscal risk. As the BoJ steps back, market forces are driving yields higher, undermining the central bank’s control. The lack of buyers for super-long JGBs highlights a crisis of confidence in Japan’s fiscal sustainability, exacerbated by Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s comparison of Japan’s fiscal state to Greece’s during its 2010 debt crisis.
Fiscal Recklessness and Political Inertia
Japan’s debt-to-GDP ratio, at 263%, is among the highest globally. Decades of deficit spending, fueled by quantitative easing and political reluctance to implement austerity, have created a fiscal powder keg. Calls for consumption tax cuts ahead of the July 2025 upper house election further erode investor trust, as they signal increased borrowing without structural reforms. Prime Minister Ishiba’s resistance to these cuts has done little to restore confidence, as markets demand a credible path to fiscal balance.
Global Implications: The Yen Carry Trade and Liquidity Shock
The Collapse of the Yen Carry Trade
The yen carry trade—borrowing in low-yielding yen to invest in higher-yielding foreign assets—has been a cornerstone of global liquidity since the 1990s. Japanese investors, seeking returns unavailable domestically, poured trillions into US Treasuries, emerging market bonds, and other assets. However, rising JGB yields are reversing this flow. As Japanese yields approach or exceed foreign yields (e.g., 30-year JGBs at 3.185% vs. US 30-year Treasuries at 5%), investors are repatriating capital, unwinding carry trades.
This unwinding is a global margin call. Emerging markets, reliant on Japanese capital, face sudden outflows, increasing FX volatility. The yen’s strengthening, as capital returns to Japan, disrupts global currency markets. In the US, the Treasury market—dependent on foreign buyers like Japan—faces pressure as Japanese institutions sell or reduce purchases of US bonds.
Echoes in the US Treasury Market
The US is not immune. A recent 20-year Treasury auction saw weak demand, with primary dealers absorbing 17% of issuance—a sign of desperation. The 30-year Treasury yield has climbed above 5.1%, reflecting rising borrowing costs. Moody’s downgrade of US debt to Aa1 from Aaa, citing a $36 trillion debt burden and unsustainable deficits, has amplified concerns.
President Trump’s proposed “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” reviving 2017 tax cuts, is projected to add $3.3 trillion to US debt by 2034, pushing the debt-to-GDP ratio to 125%. With $9 trillion in US debt maturing within the next 12 months, the Treasury market faces a refinancing challenge of unprecedented scale. If foreign buyers, including Japanese institutions, step back, the US could face a structural demand breakdown, forcing higher yields and tightening financial conditions.
The Sovereign Debt Crisis Blueprint
Japan as the Fuse, US as the Bomb
Japan’s bond market crisis is a blueprint for what could unfold in the US. Both nations share structural vulnerabilities: high debt-to-GDP ratios, reliance on central bank intervention, and political dysfunction. Japan’s breakdown demonstrates that even a captive market can rebel when trust erodes. The BoJ’s loss of control over the yield curve mirrors potential risks for the Federal Reserve, which faces rising long-end yields despite its efforts to manage expectations.
The metaphor of Japan as the fuse and the US as the bomb is apt. Japan’s crisis is a warning shot, but the US—given its role as the world’s largest bond market ($51 trillion) and the dollar’s reserve currency status—represents a far larger systemic risk. A US debt crisis would disrupt global bond markets, equity valuations (e.g., the S&P 500’s recent wobble), and liquidity flows.
The Role of Bond Vigilantes
Bond vigilantes—investors who sell bonds to discipline profligate governments—are reawakening. In Japan, their absence from JGB auctions signals a rejection of fiscal recklessness. In the US, rising Treasury yields and weak auction demand suggest vigilantes are saddling up. Central banks’ ability to suppress yields is waning, exposing markets to the harsh reality of supply and demand.
The US Dollar and Gold: A Shifting Landscape
The Dollar’s Eroding Trust
The US dollar’s dominance is not immediately threatened—neither the euro nor the renminbi offers a viable alternative due to fragmentation and control, respectively. However, self-inflicted wounds—fiscal recklessness, political gridlock, and the dollar’s weaponization in trade disputes—are eroding trust. A structural breakdown in Treasury demand, driven by Japan’s repatriation or global risk repricing, could push US borrowing costs higher, weakening the dollar’s appeal.
Gold as a Judgment on Fiat
Gold is resurging as a safe-haven asset amid this turmoil. Unlike sovereign bonds, gold offers no coupon, no intervention, and no deficits—it simply exists. As trust in central banks and fiat currencies falters, gold’s appeal grows. Bitcoin, another scarce asset, has hit $107,322, reflecting similar dynamics, but gold’s historical stability and lack of counterparty risk make it a preferred hedge. Analysts like Stack Hodler argue that central bank credibility is “shattering in real time,” driving demand for gold and other neutral assets.
Conclusion: Preparing for the Exit
Japan’s bond market breakdown is not an isolated event—it’s a warning for the global financial system. The BoJ’s loss of yield curve control, the collapse of the yen carry trade, and the erosion of fiscal credibility signal the end of an era of sovereign bond repression. The US, with its ballooning debt and reliance on foreign buyers, is on a similar trajectory. As trust in central planning wanes, capital will flee to assets like gold, which stand outside the fiat system.
Investors must prepare an exit plan. Diversifying into gold, reducing exposure to long-dated bonds, and monitoring central bank actions are critical steps. Japan’s crisis is the fuse; the US could be the bomb. When trust in sovereign debt crumbles, the question isn’t whether the system will break—it’s how long until detonation.
References
Reuters: Japan's super-long bond yields soar to records as market frets about demand
IndraStra: From Safe Haven to Fault Line: How Japan’s Bond Crisis Threatens Global Markets
American Thinker: Bond Market Shock: Is a New Financial Crisis Looming?
Wikipedia: National debt of Japan
Wolf Street: Japan’s 30-Year and 40-Year Bonds Crater, Yields Spike
@onechancefreedm: Japan Is the Fuse. The U.S. Is the Bomb
@DarioCpx: The BOJ losing control of long-term JGB Yields
USD/JPY - H1 - Channel Breakout (17.05.2025) The Pair on the H1 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Channel Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours.
Possible Short Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 142.40
2nd Support – 140.17
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USD_JPY SUPPORT AHEAD|LONG|
✅USD_JPY is going down now
But a strong support level is ahead at 142.000
Thus I am expecting a rebound
And a move up towards the target of 143.000
LONG🚀
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USDJPY Channel Down rejection aiming for the 2024 Support.The USDJPY pair has been trading within a Channel Down pattern since the January 10 2025 High and right now is on its latest Bearish Leg, an outcome of the rejection near the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line).
This has also been confirmed by the 1D MACD Bearish Cross and the next technical Support is on 139.600. By the time it gets tested, the price may also make contact with the 1W MA200 (red trend-line). Our short-term Target is 139.600.
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USDJPY Will Move Lower! Short!
Here is our detailed technical review for USDJPY.
Time Frame: 1h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is approaching a significant resistance area 142.577.
Due to the fact that we see a positive bearish reaction from the underlined area, I strongly believe that sellers will manage to push the price all the way down to 141.626 level.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
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Yen Strengthens on Dollar WeaknessThe Japanese yen firmed to around 143.6 per dollar, heading for a weekly gain of over 1% as inflation data came in stronger than expected. Core inflation surged to 3.5%, its highest in more than two years, while headline inflation held at 3.6%, reinforcing expectations that the BoJ may maintain its tightening stance.
The yen also benefited from continued dollar weakness tied to U.S. fiscal worries. Earlier, Japan’s Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato denied discussing exchange rates with U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent at the G7 summit, dismissing rumors of joint currency intervention.
USD/JPY faces resistance at 148.60, with further upside levels at 149.80 and 151.20. Key support lies at 139.70, then 137.00 and 135.00.
USDJPY Will Explode! BUY!
My dear subscribers,
USDJPY looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details:
The market is trading on 143.33 pivot level.
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bullish continuation.
Target - 143.66
About Used Indicators:
The average true range (ATR) plays an important role in 'Supertrend' as the indicator uses ATR to calculate its value. The ATR indicator signals the degree of price volatility.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK