USDJPY
DXY UPDATED w/ Eurozone Interest Rate & U.S. Jobless Claims originally posted here . 102.500 DXY in the coming weeks?
The Eurozone has opted to keep interest rates stable at 3.65%, signaling a wait-and-see approach to current economic conditions.
Meanwhile, U.S. jobless claims have come in 3,000 lower than expected, reflecting a stronger U.S. labor market.
This divergence in data is likely to put pressure on EUR/USD, with the U.S. dollar gaining strength from robust employment figures while the Euro remains steady amid unchanged monetary policy. I’ll be watching for potential bullish DXY into the next trading sessions.
USD/JPY Long Trade: Building into Next Week's OpportunityGetting ready for next week's USD/JPY setup! 🚀 The market is aligning for a potential big move, and I'm positioning myself for the action. Watch closely as I plan my entries and manage the trade—timing is everything! ⏳
If you're into catching high-probability trades and want to see how I approach the markets, make sure to follow and stay tuned. Let’s ride this wave together! 📈 Don't miss out—like, comment, and share your thoughts below!
GOLD LONG TO $2,800Within my Account Management service (The Gold Fund), I have been buying Gold since $1,600's for my investors. We have been holding for nearly 2 years now & cashed out partials profits along the way.
We still have much more upside to go towards our $2,800 target. We will look for a TEMPORARY retracement, then look to buy more.
USDJPY / BREAKING THE CHANNEL - 4HUSDJPY / 4H TIME FRAME
HELLO TRADERS
After breaking the channel, prices are attempting to reach the support level at 138.810.
As long as they stabilize below 142.231, a decline is expected to reach 138.810, and further below that, 137.306. This downward momentum is contingent on maintaining resistance below 142.231.
However, if 142.231 is breached, it could signal a potential rise toward the next resistance level at 144.401. Breaking this level would suggest bullish momentum, and for a stronger confirmation of an upward trend, prices need to sustain themselves above 144.401, eventually targeting the 147.401 level.
TURNING LEVEL : 142.231
USD/JPY Falls Below 141.00 Due to Fed-BoJ Policy DivergenceUSDJPY is in a downtrend, trading around 140.908 after breaking the support level at 139.530.
The EMA 34 and 89 lines indicate that selling pressure remains dominant. If the price rebounds from this support, the short-term target will be 142.062. Otherwise, if the support breaks, the price may drop to 138.145.
Regarding news: USD/JPY continued to weaken below 141.00 in Friday's Asian session, driven by the policy divergence between the Fed and BoJ, which supported the Yen. Attention now shifts to U.S. sentiment data.
USD/JPY BEST PLACE TO SELL FROM|SHORT
Hello, Friends!
We are targeting the 141.999 level area with our short trade on USD/JPY which is based on the fact that the pair is overbought on the BB band scale and is also approaching a resistance line above thus going us a good entry option.
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Trends and Potential Trades in GBPUSD, EURUSD, and USDJPYThis morning's analysis focuses on the current state of play in GBPUSD, EURUSD, and USDJPY.
The overall trend for the USD remains downward, and this week has seen a continuation of that trend.
GBPUSD & EURUSD
In the short term, there is potential for a sell trade (Secondary Trend) as a retracement of the recent bull run towards the buy zone of the bullish wave.
USDJPY
We have observed a strong downward move to T1, and price action on the 15-minute chart suggests a potential buying opportunity after liquidity was grabbed at the low of the Tokyo session.
Buying USDJPY (Secondary Trend) is a possibility, as the wave structure 2 is approaching its low, with wave 3 correction expected to be the next phase.
Happy Trading!
Fundamental Market Analysis for September 13, 2024 USDJPYThe USD/JPY pair weakened further below the mid 141.000s during the Asian session on Friday and is now back closer to the YTD low reached earlier this week. Moreover, the fundamental backdrop seems to be leaning in favor of bearish traders and supports the prospects of a continuation of the established downtrend seen over the past two months.
The US Dollar (USD) fell to a fresh weekly low amid rising bets for more aggressive Federal Reserve (Fed) policy easing next week, bolstered by the release of a softer-than-expected US Producer Price Index (PPI) on Wednesday. In fact, markets are now pricing in a more than 40% probability that the US central bank will cut borrowing costs by 50 basis points at the end of its September meeting. This keeps US Treasury yields near 2024 lows, which puts pressure on the dollar and leads to a decline in the USD/JPY pair.
The Japanese Yen (JPY), on the other hand, continues to receive support from hawkish signals from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) indicating that it will raise interest rates further if the economic outlook matches forecasts. Moreover, BoJ board member Naoki Tamura said on Thursday that the road to ending soft policy is still very long. This represents a significant divergence from dovish Fed expectations, which in turn encourages further pullback in Japanese Yen (JPY) and contributes to the tone of the USD/JPY pair.
The aforementioned fundamental backdrop indicates that the path of least resistance for spot prices remains to the downside, although traders may prefer to move sideways ahead of a key central bank event that could occur next week. The Fed is due to announce its decision at the end of its two-day meeting next Wednesday. This will be followed by the BOJ's policy update on Friday, which will determine the next leg of directional movement for the USD/JPY pair. Nevertheless, the pair remains on track to end the second week in the negative.
Trading recommendation: Trade predominantly with Sell orders from the current price level.
USDJPY swing trade idea(1100 pips).After falling for almost a month, dollar has gained some strength in recent weeks and the Japanese currency intervention is seemingly slowing down, as we have seen some huge bullish moves on other pairs. As seen on chart, the price has hit the weekly 0.618 fib level and the VWAP drawn from the start of the second quarter(March). For our TP levels we target 146.55; 149 and 152. Will update next week. As always, trade safely and expect the unexpected.
Fractals Trading Community,
Mei
GOLD LONG TO $2,550Although I'm already short on Gold from $2,526 I have warned on my previous sell analysis that we might see early sellers get shaken out the market through volatile price action. We might see 1 more ATH on Gold towards the $2,540 - $2,550 price zone before the CORRECTION starts.
This is a highly probable scenario considering we're now at the start of a new month, so we can expect;
⭕️Liquidity Grab On Monthly Candle.
⭕️3 Sub-Waves (W,X,Y) To Complete Wave 5.
⭕️Shakeout Of Early Sellers & Late Buyers.
I will ONLY take a buy position if Gold first reaches Wave I, breaking structure to the upside, followed by a retest towards Wave II. If this does not happen I will not be looking to buy.
USDJPY: Will the Fed's rate cut really hurt the USD/JPY pair?The potential impact of a US Federal Reserve rate cut on USD/JPY is a key issue for investors and currency strategists, especially as we approach a potential Fed policy change in 2024.
With the divergent monetary policies of the Fed and the Bank of Japan (BoJ), market participants are divided on whether a Fed rate cut will lead to a weaker USD/JPY.
USDJPY potential Buy SetupRecommended trading levels:
Entry Level(Buy Stop): 144.350
Stop Loss Level: 139.878
Take Profit Level 1: 148.822
Take Profit Level 2: 153.294
Reasons for bullish bias:
- Price bounced from daily support
- Bullish AB=CD pattern
- Safe Entry at LH breakout, which is also a resistance zone
- Bullish divergence
USD/JPY: Reversal Signal or More Downside? The Japanese yen has tested prices below 141, an eight-month low for the pair. But eventually pulled back above 142. From a technical perspective, this long wick might look to some traders to be the start of a small reversal before its eventual sojourn lower.
Rom a fundamental perspective, US Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in a few hours ago lower than expected. Which means the US Federal Reserve might forgo a 50bps cut in favor of a 25bps next week. This might help support the US dollar in the face of yen strength. Now we have US Producer Price Index (PPI) to look forward to on Thursday.
The Yen against Euro could be interesting to keep an eye on too in the lead up to the European Central Bank (ECB) decision. On Thursday, the ECB is expected to cut its interest rate to 3.5% from 3.75%.
USD/JPY drops below 141, US CPI drops to 2.5%The Japanese yen has extended its gains on Wednesday. USD/JPY fell as low as 140.70, its lowest level this year, before paring much of the losses. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 141.71 at the time of writing, down 0.52% on the day.
The hotly-anticipated US inflation report didn’t shake up the markets as it was pretty much as advertised. Headline CPI eased to 2.5% y/y in August, down from 2.9% in July and matching expectations. This was the fifth straight decline in headline inflation.
Monthly, CPI was unchanged at 0.2%, in line with the market estimate. Core CPI was unchanged at 3.2% y/y, matching the market estimate. Monthly, the core rate ticked up to 0.3%, up from the July gain of 0.2% and the market estimate of 0.2%.
The inflation report comes just one week before the Federal Reserve meeting on Sept. 18. Market rate cut odds have been swinging wildly as it remains unclear whether the Fed will cut by a modest 25 basis points or a jumbo 50-bps cut.
The odds of a 50-bps move surged to 59% after the soft nonfarm payroll report on Friday, but were down to 27% just prior to today’s inflation report and have fallen to 15% following the release, according to the CME’s FedWatch. This puts the likelihood of a 25-bps cut at 85%, although we’re likely to see the odds continue to shift in the days ahead.
The Bank of Japan meets on Sept. 20, two days after the Fed meeting. The BoJ is looking to continue tightening but will likely stay on the sidelines next week, as BoJ officials have ruled out a rate hike while the financial markets are unsteady. That could mean that the BoJ will push off a rate hike until December or January.
USD/JPY tested support at 141.54 earlier. Below, there is support at 140.79
There is resistance at 142.80 and 143.31
USDJPY - 4hrs ( Buy After Break Out Tp Range 400 PIP ) Pair Name : USD/JPY
Time Frame : 4hrs Chart / Close
Scale Type : Large Scale
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Key Technical / Direction ( Long After Break Out )
Type : Mid Term Swing
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Bullish Break
142.650
Reasons
- Major Turn level
- Fixed Range hvn
- Inner Trend Break
- Visible Range Hvn
- inner Choch / 4hrs
- Harmonic Pattern
Bearish Reversal
147.200 Area
Reasons
- Major Turn level / W
- Visible Range Lvn
- Fixed Value
- Choch
- Pattern Target
- Quarters Area