USDJPY ShortThe overall trend indicates a bearish price action. The pullback on the upper side is viewed as a seller's order block being filled, which will likely continue the bearish trend.
For a bullish scenario to unfold, the price must remain above 149.800 on a 4-hour closing basis; only then can a bullish trade be initiated.
USDJPY
Bearish reversal?USD/JPY is rising towards the resistance level which is an overlap resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and the 127.2% Fibonacci extension and could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 149.44
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and the 127.2% Fibonacci extension.
Stop loss: 150.97
Why we like it:}
There is an overlap resistance level that is slightly above the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 147.54
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
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USDJPY - Bullish pattern towards descending trendlineThe USD/JPY pair appears to be forming a potential reversal pattern after reaching a low around 146.50 in early March. Having bounced from this support level, the price is now hovering near 148.60 with indications of a larger corrective move ahead. Technical analysis suggests we are expecting a bigger correction in this area, with the price likely to test higher levels before encountering significant resistance. The initial price target will be the upper boundary of the blue box area (approximately 150.50-151.00), with potential to go toward the descending trendline that has been capping price action since January.
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USDJPY Is Bearish! Short!
Take a look at our analysis for USDJPY.
Time Frame: 9h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is testing a major horizontal structure 148.641.
Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 145.355 level soon.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
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USDJPYYes, USD/JPY is following a strong downtrend, respecting the descending trendline. The break of the 148.000 support confirms further downside momentum. If sellers maintain control, the next key level to watch is 146.000, which aligns with previous demand zones and potential psychological support.
Keep an eye on fundamental factors like U.S. Treasury yields, BOJ interventions, and upcoming economic data, as they can influence the speed of the decline.
Are you looking to take a short trade on this move?
USD/JPY "The Gopher" Forex Market Heist Plan🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo! Marhaba!🌟
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Entry 📈 : "The heist is on! Wait for the breakout (148.000) then make your move - Bearish profits await!" however I advise placing Sell Stop Orders below the breakout MA or Place Sell limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe. Entry from the most recent or closest low or high level should be in retest.
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Target 🎯: 145.000 (or) Escape Before the Target
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📰🗞️Fundamental, Macro, COT Report, Quantitative Analysis, Intermarket Analysis, Sentimental Outlook:
USD/JPY "The Gopher" Forex Market is currently experiencing a Bearish trend in short term, driven by several key factors.
💡Fundamental Analysis
Fundamental analysis evaluates the economic indicators of the United States and Japan, which directly influence the USD/JPY pair.
💡United States Economic Indicators:
GDP growth is forecasted at around 2.0% to 2.5% for 2025, reflecting steady expansion Economic Forecast for the US Economy.
Inflation rate is expected to be around 2.5% to 3.0%, with recent data showing stability United States Inflation Rate.
Interest rates are at 4.50%, with expectations of cuts to around 4.0% to 4.25% by the end of 2025, reflecting a dovish shift United States Fed Funds Interest Rate.
Trade balance shows a deficit of $50 billion in January 2025, a persistent challenge but manageable with strong growth United States Balance of Trade.
💡Japan Economic Indicators:
GDP growth is projected at 1.1% for 2025, with recent Q4 2024 data showing 2.8% annualised growth, indicating recovery Japan's GDP beats forecasts.
Inflation is expected at around 2%, with core inflation robust, driven by wage gains Japan Economic Outlook.
Interest rates are at 0.5%, with expectations to reach 1.0% by the end of 2025, reflecting policy normalization Japan Outlook.
Trade balance shows a deficit, with recent figures at -2759 JPY Billion in January 2025, impacted by import costs Japan Balance of Trade.
The narrowing interest rate differential, with US rates expected to cut and Japan's rates rising, could support JPY strength, though US economic resilience remains a counterforce.
💡Macroeconomics
Macroeconomics encompasses broader economic factors influencing the pair:
Global GDP growth is projected at 3.0% to 3.3% for 2025, according to recent forecasts, with mixed regional performances World Economic Outlook Update.
Commodity prices are expected to decline by 5% in 2025, with energy prices leading the drop, impacting JPY due to Japan's import reliance Commodity Markets Outlook.
Stock markets show mixed performance, with US indices up 5% YTD and Japanese indices showing recovery, supporting risk-sensitive currencies Global Stock Market Performance.
Bond yields are expected to be range-bound, with the US 10-year Treasury yield possibly around 3.5% to 4.5%, suggesting lower USD appeal 2025 Bond Market Outlook.
💡Global Market Analysis
Global economic conditions play a significant role in currency movements:
Geopolitical events, such as potential tensions, could boost JPY as a safe-haven currency, though no major events are currently noted.
Central bank policies are diverging, with the Fed expected to cut rates and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) raising rates, narrowing the interest rate differential Central Bank Policies.
Commodity trends, with declining prices, have a muted direct impact, though energy costs affect Japan's inflation.
Stock market performance, with global indices up, suggests risk-on sentiment, potentially supporting USD over JPY Market Performance Analysis.
💡COT Data and Positioning
COT data provides insights into large trader positions, with recent reports showing:
For USD/JPY futures, large speculators are likely net long, driven by the interest rate differential and stronger US economic outlook JPY Commitments of Traders.
Positioning shows that institutional traders are cautiously optimistic, with some covering shorts as the price approaches support levels.
Key Insight: Long positions in USD/JPY align with economic fundamentals, suggesting bullish sentiment among speculators.
💡Intermarket Analysis
Intermarket relationships influence currency valuation:
USD/JPY is positively correlated with US stock markets; with strong US indices, the USD could benefit from risk-on sentiment Intermarket Analysis.
Gold, trading at $1900 per ounce, slightly up, suggests a weaker USD, supporting JPY strength as a safe-haven Gold Price Trends.
Bond yields, with declining US yields, indicate lower USD appeal, potentially boosting JPY/USD Bond Market Insights.
Key Insight: Positive correlations with US stocks suggest USD strength, while gold and bond yields support JPY, creating a mixed dynamic.
💡Quantitative Analysis
Technical analysis provides insights into price trends:
At 149.000, USD/JPY is near key support at 148.43 (Classic S3), with resistance at 149.02 (Classic R2), based on recent charts USD/JPY Technical Analysis.
Moving averages show a mixed picture, with shorter-term (MA5, MA10) suggesting buy and longer-term (MA50, MA100, MA200) suggesting sell TradingView Analysis.
RSI (Relative Strength Index) is at 45.418, neutral, suggesting potential for a bounce if support holds Technical Indicators Guide.
Key Insight: Technicals suggest a possible downward trend, with sell signals dominating, though support levels could trigger a reversal.
💡Market Sentimental Analysis
Market sentiment reflects trader positioning and expectations:
Recent data shows 62% of forex traders long on USD/JPY, with an average price of 154.6568, contrasting with a downward price movement, creating a bearish indicator Forex Sentiment USDJPY.
Bank forecasts predict USD/JPY dropping to 145.00 by year-end, citing Japan's recovery and expected Fed rate cuts Currency Forecasts.
Key Insight: Mixed sentiment, with retail traders long but institutional forecasts bearish, supporting a downward outlook.
💡Next Trend Move
Combining all factors, the next trend move for USD/JPY is likely downward:
The pair is at a key support level (148.43), and if it breaks, could drop to test lower levels around 145.00.
Potential catalysts include Fed rate cuts and BoJ rate hikes, narrowing the interest rate differential, supporting JPY strength.
Key Insight: The next move favors a downward continuation, with risks of an upward bounce if support holds.
💡Overall Summary Outlook
The USD/JPY pair, at 149.000 on March 4, 2025, exhibits a bearish outlook. Key drivers include the narrowing US-Japan interest rate differential, with US rates expected to cut to 4.0%-4.25% and Japan's rates rising to 1.0% by year-end, alongside Japan's economic recovery (1.1% GDP growth in 2025). Technical indicators suggest sell signals, supported by mixed market sentiment and declining commodity prices. Risks include strong US economic data maintaining USD dominance or global risk-off sentiment boosting USD. However, the prevailing trend points to potential JPY appreciation in the near term.
💡Future Prediction
Trend: Bearish
Details: The pair is likely to see a downward move, testing support at 148.43 and potentially dropping to 145.00 in the next few months, driven by narrowing interest rate differentials and technical sell signals. Risks include stronger-than-expected US data maintaining USD strength, but current indicators suggest a reversal is imminent.
💡Summary of Key Economic Indicators
Indicator United States (2025 Forecast) Japan (2025 Forecast)
GDP Growth 2.0%-2.5% 1.1%
Inflation Rate 2.5%-3.0% ~2%
Interest Rate 4.0%-4.25% (end of year) 1.0% (end of year)
Trade Balance Deficit ($50 billion, Jan 2025) Deficit (-2759 JPY Billion, Jan 2025)
📌Keep in mind that these factors can change rapidly, and it's essential to stay up-to-date with market developments and adjust your analysis accordingly.
⚠️Trading Alert : News Releases and Position Management 📰 🗞️ 🚫🚏
As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions,
we recommend the following:
Avoid taking new trades during news releases
Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits
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SWING USD/JPY BUYThis swing trade highlights key points where additional sell orders might be initiated. Stay tuned for updates, as this trade will extend over several days, weeks, or even months.
This analysis relies on the provided image and should not be considered financial advice. Trading carries risks; it is essential to do your own research and seek guidance from a financial advisor before making trading decisions.
USDJPY Will Explode! BUY!
My dear subscribers,
This is my opinion on the USDJPY next move:
The instrument tests an important psychological level 147.65
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bullish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market.
Target - 148.86
My Stop Loss - 147.06
About Used Indicators:
On the subsequent day, trading above the pivot point is thought to indicate ongoing bullish sentiment, while trading below the pivot point indicates bearish sentiment.
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
USD/JPY Finding Support at Key Fibonacci Level - Will it Hold?USD/JPY pair has been trending lower in a well-defined descending channel, respecting its upper and lower boundaries. Price action recently tested the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level (146.95), where a mild rebound is now taking shape.
Despite this, the 50-day SMA (152.84) and 200-day SMA (152.01) remain above price, acting as resistance levels should a reversal attempt materialize. The MACD remains in negative territory, confirming bearish momentum, while the RSI at 39.79 suggests the pair is approaching oversold conditions but hasn't confirmed a bullish shift yet.
Key Levels to Watch:
📉 Support: 146.95 (Fib 61.8%), 143.71 (Fib 78.6%)
📈 Resistance: 152.00 (200-day SMA), 152.84 (50-day SMA)
A break above the descending channel could suggest a reversal attempt, while continued rejection at the upper trendline favors further downside.
-MW
USDJPY Under Pressure! SELL!
My dear friends,
Please, find my technical outlook for USDJPY below:
The instrument tests an important psychological level 148.76
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bearish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market.
Target - 147.83
About Used Indicators:
Super-trend indicator is more useful in trending markets where there are clear uptrends and downtrends in price.
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
USDJPY Channel Down to make an important decision.The USDJPY pair has been trading within a Channel Down pattern since the January 10 High. During that time it technically got rejection upon every 4H MA100 (green trend-line) contact or close contact into a new Bearish Leg.
Three out of those four Bearish Legs have been -3.16% so even if a rejection does happen at the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the Channel Down, you can still be expecting 145.350 as a Target.
If however the 4H RSI Bullish Divergence on Higher Lows prevails and causes the price to break above the Channel Down, we will accept the small loss on the short and go long instead, targeting the 2.0 Fibonacci extension at 156.000. A lower Target in that scenario can also be Resistance 2 (154.800).
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USDJPY and GBPJPY Analysis todayHello traders, this is a complete multiple timeframe analysis of this pair. We see could find significant trading opportunities as per analysis upon price action confirmation we may take this trade. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
Yen Slips Against USD as Tariff Concerns Increase the DollarThe yen fell below 148 per dollar on Friday, reversing gains as trade tensions increased the dollar. Trump reaffirmed plans for reciprocal tariffs starting April 2. Despite this drop, the yen remains near a five-month high, backed by expectations of BOJ rate hikes. Japanese firms agreed to wage increases for a third year, aiming to offset inflation and labor shortages. Higher wages may spur spending and inflation, giving the BOJ room for future hikes. While rates are expected to remain unchanged next week, policymakers may pursue hikes later this year.
Key resistance is at 149.20, with further levels at 152.00 and 154.90. Support stands at 147.00, followed by 145.80 and 143.00.
Potential bullish rise?USD/JPY has bounced off the pivot which has been identified as an overlap support and could rise to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 148.14
1st Support: 147.58
1st Resistance: 149.25
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
USD/JPY Bearish Outlook: Key Support Levels to WatchUSD/JPY 4-hour chart is showing a clear downtrend, with price forming lower highs and lower lows. A recent retracement has tested a previous support-turned-resistance zone (148.240 - 148.262), and rejection from this level indicates the potential for further downside movement.
Bearish Confirmation & Entry:
The price is currently testing the 148.240 - 148.262 resistance zone.
A strong rejection from this level would confirm a sell setup.
The trade setup suggests a move towards the next key support zones if momentum continues downward.
Target Levels:
First Take Profit (TP1): 146.543 (Recent low & strong support level)
Second Take Profit (TP2): 145.807 (Key demand zone)
Final Take Profit (TP3): 142.960 (Major psychological support)
Risk Management:
Stop-loss placement: Above the 148.262 resistance zone, ensuring protection against unexpected bullish reversals.
The risk-to-reward ratio is favorable, with a structured trade setup providing a high-probability short opportunity.
USD/JPY at a Key Level: Is a New Trend Emerging?USD/JPY is currently in the D1 discount zone and approaching a D1 FVG, where a potential reaction may occur. The price is moving within a downtrend channel for now.
If a reaction happens at this level, we should wait for a channel breakout. A trade opportunity arises either on the breakout retest or immediately after the breakout, confirming bullish momentum and increasing the probability of an upward move.
Risk Management Strategy:
To secure profits and manage risk effectively, consider scaling out at key levels:
• Target 1: Close 25% of the position to secure initial profits.
• Target 2: Close 50% of the position to lock in more gains.
• Target 3: Close 100% of the remaining position for full take profit.
Risk Reward 1.3
Monitoring price action closely at this level is crucial.
Bullish bounce?USD/JPY is falling towards the support level which is an overlap support that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension and the 71% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 147.31
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension and the 71% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 146.54
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Take profit: 148.14
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us!
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
USDJPY Analysis todayHello traders, this is a complete multiple timeframe analysis of this pair. We see could find significant trading opportunities as per analysis upon price action confirmation we may take this trade. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
USDJPY Is Going Down! Short!
Please, check our technical outlook for USDJPY.
Time Frame: 4h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The price is testing a key resistance 147.816.
Taking into consideration the current market trend & overbought RSI, chances will be high to see a bearish movement to the downside at least to 146.645 level.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!