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USD/JPY Struggles as Key Fibonacci Support Comes into FocusUSD/JPY has extended its decline, now testing the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level near 146.95, a key support zone. The pair remains under pressure after failing to reclaim 151.50, where the 38.2% retracement and the 200-day EMA converge. Key Technical Observations: Fibonacci Support Test: The 61.8% retracement level is being challenged, making this a critical decision point. A confirmed breakdown below 146.95 could open the door toward 143.70 (78.6% retracement). Bearish EMAs: The 50-day EMA and 200-day EMA are sloping downward, reinforcing the bearish momentum. Momentum Indicators: RSI is approaching oversold levels, suggesting a short-term bounce could emerge. However, the broader trend remains weak. MACD remains in negative territory, signaling continued downside pressure. Key Levels to Watch: Support: 146.95 (61.8% retracement), 143.70 (78.6% retracement). Resistance: 149.20 (50% retracement) and 151.50 (200-day EMA & 38.2% retracement). USD/JPY is at a critical juncture. Holding 146.95 could trigger a short-term rebound, but failure to do so would reinforce the bearish case, targeting the mid-143s. Bulls need to reclaim at least 149.20 to shift the structure back toward neutral. -MW
by FOREXcom
Surging yen hits 5-month high, wage data mixedThe Japanese yen has started the week with strong gains.  In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 147.07, down 0.766 on the day. Earlier, the yen strengthened to 146.72, its best level since Oct. 4, 2024. Japan's wage data for January was mixed. Base pay for Japanese workers jumped by 3.1% y/y but more importantly, inflation-adjusted real wages declined by 1.8%. This follows two consecutive months of gains and signals that inflation has outpaced growth. The wage report was released just days before the end of annual wage negotiations at Japan's largest companies. The largest labor union in Japan is demanding large wage hike of 6% and the Bank of Japan wants to see a strong rise in wages in order to keep inflation sustainable at the 2% level. The BoJ has urged companies and workers to reach a deal that significantly raises wages. The central back meets next week and is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged. Still, the Bank has signaled it plans to continue raising rates during the year. In the US, nonfarm payrolls rose to 151 thousand in February, up from a downwardly revised 125 thousand in January but shy of the market estimate of 160 thousand.  The unemployment rate rose to 4.1% from 4%.  Wage growth eased to 0.3% m/m from a revised 0.4% in January, in line with expectations. Annualized, wages ticked higher to 4%, up from a revised 3.9% in January but below the market estimate of 4.1%. The employment report was decent but the threat of US tariffs continues to cloud the economic outlook. If trade tensions escalate, the Federal Reserve may have to adjust its rate path, depending on how tariffs affect inflation and growth. USD/JPY has pushed below support at 147.26 and is testing support t 147.26. Next is support at 1.46.48 148.51 and 148.98 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
JPY Market Analysis Update – Key Level at 148.000Market Overview: 📈 Strong JPY Performance: Expectations of another BoJ rate hike have pushed the Japanese Yen to perform strongly in the Asia-Pacific region. 📊 Record Net Long Positions: Non-commercial traders' net long yen futures surged to 96K contracts (up from 61K), setting a 30-year record according to CFTC data. Technical Insights: 📉 Descending Channel & Reversal Setup: While bearish pressure has been evident, momentum is showing signs of easing, hinting at a potential stabilization or near-term bounce. A reversal setup is identified in the 147.000/148.000 zone. 🎯 Key Level: Next week, the crucial level is 148.000. Be prepared for a buy signal if prices break above, or a sell signal if they remain below this level. Upcoming Catalysts: ⏰ Fed Policy Uncertainty: With Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicating that rate cuts are not imminent, this policy uncertainty could favor the US Dollar in the coming week, influencing the JPY further. Keep an eye on the Consumer Price Index, Producer Price Index, and Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. Stay Tuned: I'll provide a detailed update at the beginning of next week. Follow along for more insights and actionable trading strategies! Happy Trading! Disclaimer: Forex and other market trading involve high risk and may not be for everyone. This content is educational only—not financial advice. Always assess your situation and consult a professional before investing. Past performance doesn’t guarantee future results.
by darcsherry
Could the price bounce from here?USD/JPY is reacting off the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance which acts as an overlap resistance. Pivot: 146.90 1st Support: 144.74 1st Resistance: 149.28 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Long
by ICmarkets
Bullish rebound?USD/JPY is falling towards the support level which is a pullback support that lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce form this level to our take profit. Entry: 146.95 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level. Stop loss: 143.76 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level that is slightly below the 138.2% Fibonacci extension. Take profit: 150.92 Why we like it: There is an overlap resistance level that line sup with the 50% Fibonacci retracement. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Long
by VantageMarkets
CADJPY - Take Advantage of This Clean Correction!CADJPY Daily Timeframe CADJPY has shown a clear impulse in July 2024. We are now in a massive correction, consisting of 3 major waves, ABC. It appears we have almost completed Wave B and now we are anticipating wave C. We expect wave C to push up to the corrective highs where we have the 61.8 fib. Here are some key things to watch: - Wave Structure: Ensure that Wave B has completed its corrective pattern - Wave C Confirmation: Look for a strong bullish impulse off the lows of Wave B. - Volume & Momentum: A rise in volume and bullish divergence in RSI/MACD could confirm Wave C is underway. Confirmation for Wave C: Break of Structure (BOS) / Trendline Break When identifying confirmation for Wave C, a Break of Structure (BOS) or a Trendline Break is one of the strongest signals that the corrective phase is ending. Break of Structure (BOS) – Key Levels to Watch Wave B typically forms lower highs and lower lows. A break above the last lower high signals a bullish shift. Look for a decisive close above the previous swing high on the 4H or daily timeframe. A weak break (with wicks) may indicate hesitation. A higher low after the break adds extra confirmation. Trendline Break – Reversal Signal If Wave B formed a descending trendline, watch for a clean breakout with strong bullish candles (not just wicks). Retest of the trendline as support after the breakout strengthens the case for Wave C starting. Trade Idea: - Watch for Wave C to start using the techniques listed above - Once entered, keep stops below wave B - Targets: 107 (500pips), 112 (1000pips) Goodluck and as always trade safe! See below for our previous swing setups: Swing Setup 1 Swing Setup 2 Swing Setup 3
by WicktatorFX
2
NZDJPY - 2025 Plan. Make It Your Best Year Yet!Here we have the 2 Day chart for NZDJPY. We've seen a massive impulse mid 2024. We are now in an ABC correction. We are currently in wave B of the correction, subwave B. Expecting subwave C to complete wave B. We're looking for a rejection of the fib zone and a drop of over 700pips. Trade idea: - Watch for rejection of fib zone - Once rejection appears, enter with stops above the highs - Targets: 86 (350pips), 83 (700pips) Once we've completed this move down, we'll be looking for longs. We'll update this setup if there's enough engagement. Goodluck and as always, trade safe!
by WicktatorFX
AUDJPY - Growing SHORTS! Big Move Ahead!In one of our last AUDJPY analysis, we indicated that price looked foppish. Since then, we've had almost a 2000pip drop! That big drop can be marked as wave 1 in our new bearish impulsive trend. We are now in Wave 2, which is an ABC correction. We have completed Wave A (3 waves). We are now in Wave B (3 waves). We're currently in subwave b of wave B. Expecting subwave c to appear very soon. Trade Idea: - Watch for bearish price action on lower timeframe - You can use trendline break, fibs or BOS to find the reversal point - When entered, put stops above subwave B. - Target: 91 (750pips) 4Week Chart Goodluck and as always, trade safe! See our previous setups below:
by WicktatorFX
USDJPY - Bigger correction on the daily timeframeUSD/JPY's daily chart indicates we're expecting a larger correction in the near term, followed by a likely continuation of the downtrend toward the blue box target area (143.50-146.00). After reaching peaks near 162.00 in July 2024 and 158.00 in December 2024/January 2025, the pair has established a series of lower highs, creating a clear downtrend pattern. Currently trading around 148.05, the price sits at a critical juncture, with the projected path suggesting a temporary bounce (as illustrated by the zigzag line) before bearish momentum likely resumes. This outlook is supported by the consistent lower highs since mid-2024, the price's position near a historical support/resistance level, February's failed attempt to sustain prices above 150, and the overall downward momentum that has dominated since December 2024. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Short
by financialflagship
USDJPY Weekly FOREX Forecast: March 10 - 14th In this video, we will analyze USDJPY and JPY Futures. We'll determine the bias for the upcoming week, and look for the best potential setups. After a long period of weakness in the YEN, the last couple of months have shown a turnaround. By several metrics, the BOJ has the country's economy finding its footing, and looking up. This is reflecting in its currency. It a time of uncertainty, the YEN will and has been outperforming the USD, as investors look to it as the safe haven of choice. This is likely to continue in the next week or so. Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
Short
by RT_Money
USDJPY Will Go Lower! Short! Take a look at our analysis for USDJPY. Time Frame: 1h Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The market is testing a major horizontal structure 148.026. Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 146.677 level soon. P.S We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator. When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold. When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Short
by SignalProvider
4
Yen Benefits from Dollar's Broad RetreatThe Japanese yen held around 149 per dollar, its strongest in five months, benefiting from the dollar’s decline on a stronger euro and Trump’s tariff policies. His selective tariff exemptions and retaliatory measures weakened the dollar further. Domestically, BOJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida suggested possible rate hikes if economic projections align but emphasized that Japan’s monetary conditions remain highly accommodative, with only minimal reductions in government bond holdings. Key resistance is at 152.00, with further levels at 154.90 and 156.00. Support stands at 147.10, followed by 145.80 and 143.00.
by ChartMage
Fundamental Market Analysis for March 7, 2025 USDJPYEvent to pay attention to today: 15:30 EET. USD - Non-Farm Employment Change USDJPY: The Japanese Yen (JPY) has been strengthening in recent weeks due to the general weakness of the US Dollar (USD), maintaining the USD/JPY pair near its lowest level since early October, which was reached on Thursday.Speculation that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will continue to raise interest rates has put upward pressure on Japanese government bond (JGB) yields. The narrowing rate differential between Japan and other countries continues to support the low-yielding yen.Meanwhile, uncertainty surrounding US President Donald Trump's trade policy and its impact on global economic growth continues to weigh on investor sentiment, as evidenced by weaker stock market performance. This is another factor supporting the safe-haven yen. However, USD bears seem reluctant to place new bets and prefer to wait for the release of the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, which in turn limits USD/JPY losses. Trade recommendation: BUY 147.600, SL 147.000, TP 148.400
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004