Usdjpyanalysis
USDJPY Bank Bearish Robbery PlanMy Dear Robbers / Traders,
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Stop Loss : Recent Swing Low using 4h timeframe
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USD/JPY Bullish Divergence and Key Support AnalysisThe USD/JPY pair has recently exhibited a Bullish Divergence on the 1-hour chart. This technical pattern is a significant indicator suggesting potential upward price movement. The price action has also received a strong rejection at a key support level, which coincides with a 4-hour trendline and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. These factors collectively reinforce our bullish outlook.
Technical Confluences:
Bullish Divergence: A bullish divergence on the 1-hour chart indicates potential reversal and strength in the upward momentum.
Key Support Level: The price rejection at the key support level confirms the market's recognition of this zone as a significant barrier to downward movement.
4-Hour Trendline: Alignment with a long-term trendline adds to the credibility of the support level, indicating sustained bullish sentiment.
61.8% Fibonacci Level: The confluence with the Fibonacci retracement level further solidifies the support area, often seen as a critical point for trend reversals.
Entry and Risk Management:
Entry Point: 158.520
Stop Loss: 157.300
The chosen entry point at 158.520 is strategically placed just above the key support level, ensuring minimal risk while maximizing potential gains. The stop loss at 157.300 is set conservatively below the support level to protect against unexpected volatility.
Take Profit Levels:
To effectively manage profits, the following take profit levels have been identified based on technical analysis and historical price action:
TP-1: 159.740
TP-2: 160.960
TP-3: 162.180
These levels are determined to capture gains at various stages of the anticipated upward movement, allowing for flexible exit strategies based on market conditions.
Conclusion:
The USD/JPY pair demonstrates a strong bullish potential supported by multiple technical indicators and confluences. Traders are advised to enter at 158.520 with a stop loss at 157.300 to manage risk effectively. The outlined take-profit levels offer strategic exit points to maximize gains while adapting to market movements.
Recommendation:
Monitor the price action closely and adjust positions to align with evolving market conditions and protect against potential reversals.
USDJPY → Huge Fall from 162.000! Heading for 155.000?USD/JPY trickled it's way just shy of 162.000 where it formed a double top reversal pattern on the Daily chart and fell hard to 157.500. Should we still be long? Or is it time to get short?
How do we trade this? 🤔
As mentioned in my previous analysis from May 7th after the massive sell-off from 160.200 back down to 152.000, we should be looking for confirmation of a short before entering one. We now have a nice sell signal, the double top reversal, right after three strong pushes up in a trend. USD/JPY has been in a bull run since 2021 on the higher timeframes such as the weekly and monthly, getting short needs to be taken with extreme caution and careful planning.
It is reasonable to expect the USD/JPY price to retest the 160.000 area after such a fall. The bears are going to be skittish in a bull market, the bulls are going to try and long again to get that 50% pullback to the high side. But once the price goes 200 pips to the upside after the 400 pip drop, will we see another sell-off? Or a run back to 162.000 and beyond?
That's what we need to wait for, the confirmation sell candle closing on or near it's low to confirm more downside movement. It is reasonable to short this, but I would do it on the 4HR timeframe and wait for a long entry on the Daily timeframe. We should expect some support at 155.000, this trade waits for that second leg in the pullback from 162.000 to hit 155.000, give us a strong bull signal and confirmation candle to confirm a long entry around 156.000. Place the stop loss below 155.000 at 154.050, take profit #1 at 157.950 then move stop loss up to entry price, take profit #2 at 159.900, just before the key resistance of 160.000 which is also a psychological resistance.
💡 Trade Idea 💡
Long Entry: 156.000
🟥 Stop Loss: 154.050
✅ Take Profit #1: 157.950
✅ Take Profit #2: 159.900
⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:2
🔑 Key Takeaways 🔑
1. Three pushes up after the 152.000 support confirmation to the key level of 162.000
2. Double top reversal at 162.000 followed by a 400 pip drop; sell signal
3. Look for 50% pullback toward 160.000 and a rejection at that key level to manifest the second leg down to the 155.000 area.
4. Enter a 1:2 Risk/Reward long trade up to 159.900.
5. RSI near 41.00 and far below the Moving Average, supports pullback to the upside before another fall.
💰 Trading Tip 💰
The longer a trend continues after 3 legs, the probability of that trend continuing lessens. Because of this decreased probability, we ought to reduce our risk when entering trades and start looking for reversals.
⚠️ Risk Warning! ⚠️
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. You are solely responsible for your trades. Trade at your own risk!
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1. Reading Price Action
2. Chart Analysis
3. Trade Management
4. Trading Psychology
USDJPY! PPI not as friendly The Dow Industrial Average average can't close at a record but closes just above 40,000
The 2-10 year yield rises to -27.3 basis points. A close here will be highest since Jan 29
Crude oil futures settle at $82.21
Stock earnings for the quarter were kicked off. What's on tap for next week?
What happens after the first rate cut. Recession? Stocks move lower?
A number of currency pairs stretched to key target levels including the NZDUSD. What next?
Keep an eye on China's Third Plenum meeting next week
Japan's Kanda: Won't say whether intervention was conducted or not
House Democratic leader Jeffries met with Biden yesterday. The read-out isn't glowing
UMich July consumer sentiment 66.0 vs 68.5 expected
Kickstart the FX trading day for July 12 w/a technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY & GBPUSD
USDJPY → Trade Analysis | SELL SetupYou can expect a reaction in the direction of selling from the specified resistance zone
USDJPY moving higher as it tests the strong resistance level..
We expect a bearish move from the confluence zone.
Hello Traders, here is the full analysis.
I think we can soon see more fall from this range! GOOD LUCK! Great SELL opportunity USDJPY
I still did my best and this is the most likely count for me at the moment.
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Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 🤝
USDJPY ( BREAKOUT ) ( 4H )USDJPY
HELLO TRADERS
after publish a CPI news the price dropping , breakout a channel
Tendency after the price breakout , indicates the price is under bearish pressure
TURNING LEVEL : there is a black line around 159.827 , indicates if the price trade below this level reach a support level , but if the breaking turning level reach a resistance level
RESISTANCE LEVEL: there is a green line around 160.834 , indicates selling have already increase this level , when you reach this level buyer have more supply for OANDA:USDJPY USDJPY
SUPPORT LEVEL : there is a red line around 157.940 , indicates buying have already increase this level , when you reach this level selling have more demand for OANDA:USDJPY
PRICE MOVEMNET : the price stabilizing below turning level around 159.827, in my opinion until the price trade below turning level ,indicates selling have more demand for OANDA:USDJPY , so reach a support level at 157.940 , then breaking this level reach a next target at 156.534, if the price breaking turning level , indicates buyer have more supply for OANDA:USDJPY , so if the price breaking turning level by open 4h candle reach a resistance level at 160.834 , then stabilizing this level reach 161.937
TARGET LEVEL :
RESISTANCE LEVEL : 160.834 , 161.937
SUPPORT LEVEL : 157.940 ,156.534
DeGRAM | USDJPY continued growthUSDJPY is moving in an ascending channel above the trend lines.
The price has consolidated above the 62% retracement level.
We expect the growth to continue.
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Share your opinion in the comments and support the idea with like. Thanks for your support!
Japanese Yen dropped to its lowest level in nearly 4 decadesAll data supports LONG usdjpy
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According to Nikkei, till now, Japanese institutional traders have now no longer poured capital into overseas markets on any such big scale. Banks offered simplest a internet 220.7 billion yen of overseas property withinside the first 1/2 of of this 12 months. Meanwhile, pension price range bought a internet of 9.forty three trillion yen withinside the identical period.
The using pressure using the float of cash into foreign places property is the organization of retail traders who're changing their financial savings into investments to deal with inflation. Core CPI in Japan has always multiplied extra than 2% every month given that fall 2022. May CPI multiplied 2.1%, better than the BOJ`s goal of 2%.
Currently, only a few monetary merchandise in Japan generate returns better than 2%. One-12 months deposits of as a minimum three million yen had hobby costs of simply beneathneath 0.1% in June. Japanese authorities bonds bought to retail traders had hobby costs of much less than 1% this month. The predicted dividend yield of Japanese shares in keeping with the Nikkei Stock Average is simplest 1.75%, nevertheless decrease than inflation.
“Investment cash has a tendency to float to Western nations and elsewhere, in which monetary and company boom expectancies are high,” stated Soichiro Tateishi, an economist on the Japan Research Institute.
When Japanese traders purchase shares or bonds denominated in USD via mutual price range with out a foreign money hedging strategy, they'll ought to promote yen to shop for USD. Accordingly, multiplied funding sports via NISA positioned even extra strain at the yen. Investors chickening out capital will assist the yen appreciate. However, NISA is a software primarily based totally on lengthy-time period investments, so the yen will now no longer be capable of get hold of momentum from here.
Meanwhile, Japan's change deficit has lengthy been taken into consideration a structural issue inflicting the yen to fall. As an electricity importer, Japan has visible a change deficit for the reason that 2011 earthquake and tsunami, which pressured the u . s . to import extra electricity because of the closure of nuclear strength plants.
From January to May 2024, Japan's change deficit stood at three.forty five trillion yen. This discern will boom to three.eighty three trillion yen while facts via mid-June are included.
Some professionals have warned approximately the capital flight of retail traders. Meanwhile, the yen is buying and selling at a hundred and sixty for 1 USD, whilst at the start of the 12 months it became 140. One manner to show the scenario round is to boom the splendor of the Japanese inventory marketplace and different monetary merchandise.
According to Shingo Ide, leader monetary engineer at NLI Research Institute, Japanese businesses “are beginning to make efforts to enhance profitability and capital efficiency.”
However, Nikkei stated, any essential exalternate to the contemporary fashion will take a protracted time.
USDJPY ( DOWNWARD PRESSURE ) ( 4H )USDJPY
HELLO TRADERS
in the last chart the price reach first target , know trying to reach a turning level before dropping
Tendency the price is under bearish pressure , after stabilizing below turning level at 161.126
TURNING LEVEL : a blue line between resistance and support level around 161.126 , indicates if the price stabilizing below this level reach support level , if the breaking turning level reach a resistance level
RESISTANCE LEVEL : there is a green line around 161.840 , if the price breaking turning level reach this target , indicates selling have already increase this level
SUPPORT LEVEL : there is a red line below turning level around 159.814, indicates buying have already increase this level , so until the price trade below turning level reach this target
PRICE MOVEMENT : maybe first the price will trying to rising turning level around 161.126, after dropping to the support level at 159,814 , then stable below this level reach 158.755 ,
if the price breaking turning level reach a resistance level at 162.126 , breaking this level reach a new resistance level at 162.727
TARGET LEVEL :
RESISTANCE LEVEL : 161.840 , 162.727
SUPPORT LEVEL : 159.814,158.755
UsdJpy- Don't p..s against the wind!If there has been a clear trend in the past two years, it has been the devaluation of the JPY. Despite some corrections, even very deep ones, the trend has always resumed, leading to new lows for the JPY.
One of these deeper corrections occurred at the end of last year, triggered, as always, by JPY repatriation.
However, as shown on the chart, the beginning of 2024 saw the resumption of the upward move. Only the BoJ intervention at the end of April and beginning of May at the 160 level stopped the ascent.
The chart shows that the pair has been acting very technically since then, with the drop stopping and reversing precisely at the horizontal support that was previously resistance.
Since then, USD/JPY has started making higher lows again and is now trading around 160.
Only time will tell if the BoJ will be determined to defend this level but, in my personal opinion, it is better to look to buy on dips (around 158) rather than sell at this resistance, hoping for another intervention.
USDJPY on 4-hr Timeframe (downtrend channel) (short for now)I have plotted out the key levels for resistance and support.
Nearest Resistance: 160.82-160.87
Nearest Support: 160.26-160.30
Resistance Turned Support: 159.83-159.91
Major Support: 157.70-157.98
Scenario 1
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If Bullish Candlestick formed above 161.20 (Bull Flag Breakout), a continuation of Higher High will be around 162.70.
Scenario 2
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If Bearish Candlestick Formed below 160.26, price will continue to correct to 159.83-159.91.
Scenario 3
========
Major Correction towards to 157.70-157.98 (probably takes 2-3 weeks to reach there).
USDJPY ( UNDER BEARESH PRESSURE ) ( 4H )USDJPY
HELLO TRADERS
Tendency the price is under bearish pressure , after stabilizing below turning level at 161.524
TURNING LEVEL : a blue line between resistance and support level around 161.524 , indicates if the price stabilizing below this level reach support level , if the breaking turning level reach a resistance level
NEW RESISTANCE LEVEL : there is a green line around 162.412 and 163.207 , if the price breaking turning level reach this target
SUPPORT LEVEL : there is a red line below turning level around 160.610 and 159.815 , indicates buying have already increase this level , so if the price breaking turning level reach this target
PRICE MOVEMENT : maybe first the price will trying to rising turning level around 161.524, after dropping to the support level at 160.610 , then stable below this level reach 159.815 ,
if the price breaking turning level reach a new resistance level at 162.412 and 163.207
TARGET LEVEL :
RESISTANCE LEVEL : 162.412 , 163.207
SUPPORT LEVEL : 160.610 ,159.815
USDJPY seems reaching its peak. Time for Yen to shine?Last month, the US unemployment rate rose to 4.1%. High current interest rates may assist in controlling inflation. However, if rates persist at 5.5% for an extended period, businesses may lack the funds needed to hire more employees, thereby failing to improve domestic employment rates. Consequently, the current high interest rates are unlikely to endure for long. Once the Fed decides to lower rates, a significant short in the US dollar is anticipated, benefiting other non-US dollar asset classes.
USD/JPY - Bullish Trend ContinuationThis morning, the focus is on the Dollar-Yen pair. The bullish trend is evident across all timeframes. Yesterday, we observed a strong break of the reversal structure at 161.269 after reaching a momentum high of 161.95. This break is crucial for the continuation of the bullish trend. Following the break, a bullish pattern has formed, and the price has moved into the Fibonacci buy zones of the initial move. Given this setup, the high probability action is to buy or do nothing above 161.57.
Stop Loss: 161.14
Target 1: 162.35
Always think in probabilities.
Mega Analysis on USDJPY outrageous Levels so this analysis is based on high time frame weekly
1) so i identified a CUP & HANDLE pattern, the range for the cup size is from 127.50 to 151.946
2) Handle range from 140.188 to 151.946
so the target projected based on size of pattern
1st target = 163.513
2nd target = 176.392
last three weeks has a price action of three soldiers which has left behind bullish fvg at 159.778 and 158.258
so, if you dont have any position this area could be offer fair value and if you already holding some position then we can trail the stop loss just below the fvg we have marked
note - market is based on buyer and seller and ups and downs so short term pullbacks are considerable
leave your comment on my analysis and lets have trading related deep talks !!
USDJPY ( TRYING TO CREATE NEW HISTORICAL PEAK ) ( 4H )USDJPY
HELLO TRADERS
Tendency the price closer resistance trendline , it will trying to reach a turning level , before long
TREDN ANALYSIS : the price closer resistance trendline after dropping it will attempt to reach turning level , today the price it will trying again to reach resistance trendline to created a new historical peak
TURNING LEVEL : a black line around 161,374 , indicates if the price stabilizing above this level reach resistance level , if the breaking turning level reach a support level
RESISTANCE LEVEL : there is a blue line around 161.940 , indicates selling have already increase this level , so if the price stable above turning level reach this level
SUPPORT LEVEL : there is a red line below turning level around 160.823 , indicates buying have already increase this level , so if the price breaking turning level reach this level
PRICE MOVEMENT : as long as the price trade above turning level at 161,374 , reach a resistance level at 161.940 , then breaking this level create a new historical peak around 162.715 , if the price breaking turning level reach a support level at 160.823 , then stable below this level touch a 159.841
TARGET LEVEL :
RESISTANCE LEVEL : 161.940 , 162.715
SUPPORT LEVEL : 160.823, 159.841
DeGRAM | USDJPY volatility reductionUSDJPY is moving in an ascending channel above the trend lines.
The price is at its peak since 1990.
The volatility of the movement has decreased and now the chart is moving under the resistance level.
We expect a pullback after the resistance retest.
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Japan's efforts to protect the yen exchange rate fell into vain"ALL THE PROBLEM IS WITH THE FED"
On Wednesday`s buying and selling consultation, the yen fell to 160.88 yen for 1 USD, the bottom degree due to the fact that 1986. Early this morning (June 27) withinside the Asian marketplace, the yen rebounded slightly. 160.sixty three yen to at least one USD.
The yen has depreciated approximately 2% this June and fallen 12% due to the fact that the start of the yr as compared to the USD, withinside the context of a regular growth withinside the USD alternate price due to the fact expectancies approximately whilst the Fed will begin decreasing hobby prices are constantly driven back. .
The Dollar Index, which measures the power of the USD in opposition to a basket of six different predominant currencies, has accelerated 1.25% this month and is up 4.sixty three% due to the fact that the start of the yr - consistent with facts from MarketWatch. On Wednesday consultation, Dollar Index handed 106 points, the very best in 2 months.
The predominant motive of the yen devaluation as compared to the USD is the hobby price distinction among americaA and Japan. The Fed's short-time period hobby price is five.25-five.five% and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is 0-0.1%, making the yen an appealing investment foreign money. in hobby price differential transactions (bring trade).
According to Bloomberg, international traders recognize that the yen will face downward stress so long as USD hobby prices stay high. In the worldwide foreign money marketplace with a transaction fee of 7.five trillion USD according to day, the non-stop devaluation of the yen is a clearer proof of US affect withinside the economic sector.
“The hassle is all with the Fed. Higher and longer hobby prices withinside the US are attracting cash to americaA and making the USD robust," stated leader bond funding strategist of NatAlliance Securities LLC, Mr. Andrew Brenner. Mr. Brenner stated that for Japan, that is a challenge.
Wednesday's buying and selling consultation completely contemplated America's dominant function in international economic markets. The Dollar Index's 0.4% growth this consultation positioned downward stress on nearly all different currencies withinside the world. The US inventory marketplace is on course to finish some other area of robust gains, whilst the Ministry of Finance without difficulty bought all 70 billion USD of Treasury bonds withinside the public sale at the equal day.
For the yen, the tale is absolutely different. At an alternate price of almost 161 yen to at least one USD, the foreign money has depreciated past the factor in which Japanese government intervened withinside the forex marketplace in past due April and early May. This manner efforts Spending greater than 60 billion USD to defend Tokyo's yen alternate price has "failed", however happily it handiest bogged down the price of devaluation of the yen.
Usd Jpy Intervention shortAnalysis of USD/JPY Short Signal Based on Potential Bank of Japan Intervention
The BOJ has a history of intervening in the currency market to stabilize the yen, especially when rapid depreciation threatens economic stability.
Previous interventions have led to sharp, albeit sometimes short-lived, reversals in the USD/JPY pair.
Current Economic Conditions:
Japan:
Inflation remains low, and economic growth is sluggish.
The BOJ continues with its ultra-loose monetary policy, but any signs of overheating in the exchange rate might prompt intervention.
United States:
The Federal Reserve has been relatively hawkish, focusing on controlling inflation through interest rate hikes.
This policy divergence has contributed to the USD strength against the JPY.
Market Sentiment:
Recent movements have seen the USD/JPY testing higher levels, potentially triggering concerns for the BOJ about excessive yen weakness.
Speculation of intervention can often lead to preemptive market adjustments.
Technical Analysis
Resistance Levels:
The pair may face resistance around historically significant highs, which could act as a trigger point for BOJ intervention.
Support Levels:
Key support levels will be watched to assess potential downside targets if intervention occurs.
Sustainability of BOJ Actions:
The effectiveness of BOJ interventions in reversing long-term trends is historically mixed.
Given the potential for BOJ intervention to correct an overextended yen depreciation, a short position in USD/JPY could be strategic. However, traders should closely monitor key economic indicators, BOJ communications, and technical resistance levels. Proper risk management, including stop-loss orders, is essential to navigate the inherent uncertainties and volatility associated with such interventions.