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Usdjpyanalysis

Forex Price analysis - GU, AU, UC, UJ and CJWelcome to this week's Forex Price Analysis for the week starting June 30, 2024. We're analysing GBPUSD, AUDUSD, USDCAD, USDJPY, and CADJPY. GBPUSD: The bullish wave structure is broken. High probability sell at 1.2654 targeting 1.2612. AUDUSD: A bearish wave suggests a buy at the low. A strong rally on Friday. Prefer buying after a correction to the 0.6640 buy zone. USDCAD: A bearish move on Friday indicates a revisit to 1.3734. Expect lower prices to 1.3627 before buying. USDJPY: Strong uptrend last week. Bullish wave failed; trend change pattern with a corrective wave in Fibonacci sell-zone. Trade below 160.70 suggests further decline. A break above 160.96 negates selling. CADJPY: Similar to USDJPY. Potential downside after Thursday's high. A strong break of the high on Friday suggests an uptrend continuation. A break below 117.43 indicates a selling opportunity after a pullback.
by Charts247TradingAcademy
The chart is a battleground, revealing who got crushed!In the early days of exchange trading, there was no technical possibility to visualize market quote movements, and traders analyzed ticker tapes. The real hype and massive interest in exchange speculation owe it to the technical possibility of displaying exchange information in the form of charts with ticks, bars, candles, and other more exotic ways of displaying price movements (Renko, Kagi). This led to a rapid growth of various schools of technical and graphical analysis. Just Google it, and you'll be overwhelmed by the sheer amount of info out there. It's like, every chart can be interpreted in a million ways, and three analysts will give you four different opinions on the same chart. It's crazy! But after 15+ years of trading, I've come to realize that the essence of graphical analysis is all about finding the "suffering" market participants. Classic patterns make it easy to spot areas of market activity and where traders are piling in. I'll give you some examples, backed by data from open sources, that'll show you just how predictable retail traders can be. Now, I know some experienced traders might say, "Patterns don't work, and this knowledge isn't enough." But I call BS - patterns do work, and the real question is who's extracting the most value from them? Of course, interpreting market patterns is just one piece of the puzzle. Here's an analogy: think of experienced hunters preparing for a hunt. They don't just wander around looking for prey; they identify the habitats, study the location, and track the animal's migration paths. They have a plan, limited time, and the right gear to get the job done. It's the same with pro traders with really big money. They plan and execute their strategy, using the behavior of less-informed participants in certain "hotspots" that attract retail traders like magnets. It's simple: a a newbie sees a market situation that looks just like one from a technical analysis book, and they're like, "Ah, I've got this!" Alright, let's take a look at the current situation with the Euro. I've got a screenshot with the average long and short positions of retail traders marked on the chart. It's a 1-hour time frame, which is probably the most popular one, right? Think about it, why is this time frame so popular? The data is from an open source, as of Friday evening. Take a minute to study this chart. What catches your eye? Let's zoom in and add some lines and arrows. Voilà! What do we see? The average long and short positions of participants (from the open source) almost perfectly match the breakouts of local highs and lows. This is what's called "trading the breakout" in the books. We can make an intermediate conclusion: the "bulls" were encouraged to open positions and got stuck in a losing zone, while the "bears" are celebrating their victory, as the market is favoring them and they're in a small profit. In other words, the market sentiment is bearish. Woohoo, case closed, let's go to short the Euro now! And yes, and no! The Euro quotes have been below the average short position of traders since June 14th, for two whole weeks, inviting everyone to start shorting. Even a blind "bull" can see it's time to switch sides). Here are some more numbers from the open source: short positions on the Euro decreased by 11.55% last week , while bearish positions grew by 8.55% . These are broker-aggregated data, no insider info here. You can find them yourself if you put in some time and effort. These numbers, as you understand, confirm our hypothesis that this "shorting invitation" didn't go unnoticed. Now, in the context of this article, think about it: "Will the 'Hunters' take advantage of this situation?" Or will the market take us all for a profitable ride? Oh boy... Let's look at the current situation with the Yen. It's a 1-hour chart with opened buys and sell levels marked. What can we conclude: a massive bearish candle clearly encouraged a lot of short positions to open, while the "bulls" opened at the upper range boundary during its test, and the market is favoring them, while the bears are suffering. But what's even more important, they're not just suffering, but also reversing the market. According to open data, the number of open short positions grew by 14.09% last week . Good luck to them in this tough business! However we should remember that short positions are closed at a stop-loss by "market buy" orders, which gives an impulse for further growth. What do I want to convey with this article, what do I want to share with you, mates? Evaluate market sentiment through the prism of "suffering" participants - that's, in my opinion, the best indicator! Usefully utilize information from open sources about retail positioning, there's a lot of value in it. Try to look at the chart with the eyes of a "hunter", search for traps set. Make such analysis a necessary part of your strategy to gain an edge, without which trading on markets is like playing "roulette". It's a journey, folks. Some get it earlier, some later, but eventually, most traders come to realize they need to "dig deeper", learn more about market mechanics, and improve their strategies. It's a painful process, but it's worth it. So, don't give up! Get back on your feet, and try again. As 50 Cent said: Get rich or die trying!
Education
by ClashChartsTeam
Next move for USD/JPY 164.712Bullish Scenario: If the price retraces and finds support around 160.251, it could bounce back up, continuing the uptrend towards the 164.712 target. Confirmation of the uptrend would be a bounce off the 100-period SMA (currently around 157.298) and maintaining above the 160.251 support level. Bearish Scenario: If the price fails to hold above the 160.251 support level and breaks below the 100-period SMA, it could indicate a deeper correction towards the 155.669 level (200-period SMA). Breaking below the 155.669 level would suggest a reversal of the current uptrend. Key Factors to Watch: Support and Resistance Levels: Watch how the price interacts with the 160.251 support level and the 164.712 resistance level. Moving Averages: Keep an eye on the 100-period and 200-period SMAs for dynamic support and resistance. Volume: Increased volume on a breakout above 164.712 or a breakdown below 160.251 can confirm the direction of the next major move. Fundamental News: Economic data, central bank policies, and geopolitical events can significantly impact the USD/JPY pair.
Long
by The_Golden_Path
1
USDJPY ( BEARISH ) ( 4H )USDJPY HELLO TRADERS Tendency the price attempt to closer a support trendline , indicating the price is under bearish pressure TURNING LEVEL : a blue line a round 160.629 , which indicates two cases , the first cases until the price breaking 160.629 reach a resistance level , the second case the price trade below 160.629 ,the price reach support level RESISTANCE LEVEL : a bold green line , an area above the turning level , if the price breaking turning level ( blue line ) create a new resistance level SUPPORT LEVEL : a red line , an area below turning level , the gold price for the support level 158.900 , buying have already increase at this level PRICE MOVEMENT : the price is under bearish pressure until trade below turning level at 160.629 , it will attempt to reach support level at 159.801 and158.900 , if the breaking this level the price trying to reach new resistance level at 161.254 TARGET LEVEL : RESISTANCE LEVEL : 161.254 , 161.981 SUPPORT LEVEL : 159.801 , 158.900
Short
by ArinaKarayi
USDJPY: 800+ Pips Buying Opportunity! Swing Trading Dear Traders, Hope you are doing great, price of USDJPY remain tricky. Previously, we had anticipated that price will drop heavily, however, due to weak Japanese yen price remain bullish as it was before. We still currently in a correction zone, where we can expect price to drop slightly lower to our area of entry and then we can see a strong buyers liquidity kicking in the market. *If you like the idea then please like, comment and follow us which will encourage us to bring you more educational ideas like this** Team Setupsfx_
Long
by Setupsfx_
14
USD/JPY Overheated: Indicators Signal Potential ReversalThe USD/JPY pair is showing signs of a potential reversal as price action appears to be overheating. This is most evident in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Stochastic indicators, both of which are in overbought conditions and exhibiting divergence. These technical signals suggest that the current upward momentum may be running out of steam. Japanese authorities are closely monitoring the situation and are poised for intervention if necessary. However, they are likely to wait and see if upcoming US economic data releases on Thursday and Friday will naturally ease the pressure without requiring direct action. This cautious approach allows them to avoid unnecessary intervention unless it becomes absolutely necessary. In the meantime, we are looking to anticipate this potential reversal by considering a short position. The combination of overbought technical indicators and the likelihood of Japanese intervention, alongside the potential influence of forthcoming US data, creates a favorable scenario for a bearish trade setup. By positioning ourselves ahead of these developments, we aim to capitalize on a possible downturn in the USD/JPY pair.
Short
by FOREXN1
2
USDJPY ( CONTINUES TO CREATE NEW HISTORICAL PRICE )USDJPY HELLO TRADERS as mentioned , yesterday the price breaking turning level create historical peaks , today the price continues to the bullish direction . Tendency the price is a bullish pressure in 159,785 TURNING LEVEL : the price turning level at 159,785, price stable below this level it becomes reach a support level , but if breaking this level by open 4H candle active bullish area , to create a new historical peaks RESISTANCE LEVEL: until the price trade above turning level at 159,785 , the price will rise to 161.183 , then the price breaking this level reach to 162.301 SUPPORT LEVEL : the price trade below turning level 159,785, it will reach the support level of 158.347 and 157.626, stable this level reach to 156.806 CORRECTIVE LEVEL : price will 159,785, correct itself before falling ------------------------------ * Thank you , if you support this idea with your likes and comments , I hope you a profitable day🤍🤍🤍🤍🤍
Long
by ArinaKarayi
USD-JPYThe chart for USD/JPY on a daily timeframe shows a strong bullish trend, supported by an upward trendline, with the current price at approximately 160.016 JPY. A significant "Strong Resistance Level" is identified around 160.209 JPY, where the price has previously encountered selling pressure. The chart suggests a potential breakout above this resistance level. The projected price movement, indicated by a yellow arrow, shows that after facing some initial resistance, the price might briefly pull back to the trendline before continuing its upward trajectory. This suggests a bullish outlook if the price successfully breaks above 160.209 JPY. Historical support is marked around 151.953 JPY, which has previously provided a solid foundation for upward movements. The trendline highlighted in red signifies consistent support, with the price bouncing off it multiple times, indicating its reliability. In summary, the chart indicates a bullish outlook for USD/JPY, supported by the upward trendline and strong support around 151.953 JPY. The key resistance level to watch is 160.209 JPY. A successful breakout above this level could lead to further bullish momentum. Traders should monitor the trendline support to confirm the continuation of the upward trend and ensure the trendline holds to validate the bullish scenario.
Long
by Dhareja
1
USDJPY CONTINUES A DOWNWARD USDJPY HELLO TRADERS TODAY , the price stable below turning level is refers a active bearish zone , maybe corrective to swing line before decline Tendency the price is a bearish pressure in 159,646 TURNING LEVEL : the price turning level at 159,646 , price stable below this level it becomes reach a support level , but if breaking this level by open 4H candle active bullish area , to create a new historical peaks RESISTANCE LEVEL: if the price braking turning level at 159,646, the price will rise to 160,216 , then the price breaking this level reach to new historical peaks 161.183 SUPPORT LEVEL : the price trade below turning level 159,888, it will reach the support level of 158.347 and 157.626, stable this level reach to 156.806 CORRECTIVE LEVEL : price will 159,646 , correct itself before falling ------------------------------ * Thank you , if you support this idea with your likes and comments , I hope you a profitable day🤍🤍🤍🤍🤍
Short
by ArinaKarayi
USDJPY Sell | Trade SetupUSDJPY is moving in an ascending channel between the trend lines. The price has reached the resistance level, which has already acted as a reversal point. We expect a decline. Hello Traders, here is the full analysis. I think we can soon see more fall from this range! GOOD LUCK! Great SELL opportunity USDJPY I still did my best and this is the most likely count for me at the moment. ------------------- Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 🤝
Short
by TheGrove
1
USDJPY Technical Analysis and Trade IdeaAnalyzing the USDJPY on the daily chart reveals a clear bullish trend. The pair is currently testing a significant resistance level. Although I'm considering a long position, I won't enter at this point. Instead, I’m looking for a pullback. On the 30-minute chart, there’s a noticeable bullish imbalance and an order block just below the current price. My ideal entry would be a retracement to the 50-61.8% Fibonacci level, which aligns with these areas. In the accompanying video, we delve into the trend, market structure, price action, and other crucial technical analysis elements. Remember, this video is purely educational and not financial advice.
Long
by fxtraderanthony
2
Retail Traders Poised for Yen Rebound - Consider Shorting USDJPYI am writing to bring to your immediate attention a critical development in the forex market that could present a significant trading opportunity. As many of you are aware, the recent slide in the Japanese yen has been a point of concern. This depreciation has heightened the probability of Japan intervening in the market once more to stabilize its currency. Historical patterns suggest that such interventions can lead to rapid and substantial movements in the yen's value. Currently, it appears that retail traders are reloading their bets in anticipation of a rebound in the yen. This collective action underscores a growing sentiment that the yen is poised for a recovery, potentially driven by governmental measures to curb its decline. Given these circumstances, it may be prudent to consider positioning yourselves for this anticipated rebound. Specifically, shorting the USD/JPY could be a strategic move. By doing so, you could potentially capitalize on the yen's resurgence if Japan steps in to support its currency. I urge you to review your portfolios and assess the potential benefits of shorting USD/JPY in light of the current market dynamics. As always, ensure that any trading decisions are made with careful consideration and risk management. Stay vigilant and informed. The forex market is highly dynamic, and timely actions can make a significant difference.
Short
by bryandowningqln
USDJPY ( NEW HISTORICAL PEAK ) ( 1D )USDJPY HELLO TRADERS for this week , the price attempt to create a new historical peaks ENTRY POINT : the price is under bullish trend at 158.253 , the last week the price stable in buy zone , for this week it continues trade in buy zone and will attempt to create a new historical peaks , if breaking the entry point for any reason by open candle 1D below 158.253 active sell zone ACTIVE BUY ZONE : for this week , if the price stable at 158.253 active buy zone , the price will attempt to reach resistance point 160.196 and 161.816 , it will be the creations of new historical peaks ACTIVE SELL ZONE : if the price breaking entry point at 158.253 for any reason active sell zone , the price by open candle 1D below entry point reach a155.592 and 154.273 , stable this level reach 151.727 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- * Thank you , if you support this idea with your likes and comments , I hope you a profitable week 🤍
Long
by ArinaKarayi
USDJPY keeps breaking recordsThe USD/JPY pair traded near a seven-week high above 158.00 during today's European session. The rally appears to have paused amid uncertainty over the Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate path and the release of Japan's national Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for May , will be announced on Friday. Market expectations for the Fed to start cutting interest rates from its September meeting intensified after US Retail Sales data for May missed estimates. Monthly retail sales increased 0.1%, slower than expectations of 0.2%. The Retail Sales report also showed households cutting back on discretionary spending, suggesting weak purchasing power due to high inflationary interest rates. At the Tokyo front, the Japanese Yen weakened despite the minutes of the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) June meeting showing that Governor Kazuo Ueda advocated raising interest rates earlier than expected. BoJ Ueda advocates further policy tightening due to rising inflation risks due to the weak Yen. Japan's exports have become competitive in global markets and import costs have increased, which could push price pressure higher. This week, the main factor affecting the Japanese Yen will be the national CPI data. Annual national CPI excluding Fresh Food is expected to increase to 2.6% from 2.2% previously. The pair will likely continue to increase by more than half with the expectation of the upper border at 159,600-160,200. At this point, it is necessary to have adjustment policies of the Japanese economy as the currency and economy become increasingly weaker.
by TVS-Trader
USD/JPY continues to struggle ~158Over the past three days we have seen two false breaks above 158, both resulting with a daily shooting star reversal. The upper wicks also serve as a double top above 158, and with US economic data slowly souring, the case for a top on USD/JPY is building. Prices have found support around the May high, and another crack at 158 would not come as a surprise. Yet given that the daily RSI (2) is overbought and has formed a bearish divergence on the 4-hour chart, and the highest volume of yesterday coincided with a large bearish bar, the bias remains to fade into rallies around 158 or Friday's high in anticipation of its next leg lower. 157.30, 157 and 156.60 are the next downside targets for bears to consider.
Short
by CityIndex
USD/JPY: Keeping an eye on false breaksOn Friday we saw USD/JPY failed to hold onto intraday gains above 158 following the BOJ meeting, and close the day back beneath the prior 'MOF intervention' level to form a shooting star candle. Prices drifted higher on Monday on relatively low volume, putting us once again on guard for either a false break of 158 or Friday's high. We're seeing a simple countertrend move back down to the high-volume node around 157.30 or even 157, should US data surprise enough to the downside later today.
Short
by CityIndex