Building The Case For The BIG Yen Reversal?? (Coming Soon)Unless you've been living under a rock the last few years you have seen the massive depreciation in the Japanese Yen against every other major currency pair in this post I'm going to share with you why I think the BIG reversal in fast approaching.
This post is much like the post I did on the CHF at the beginning of the Year where I correctly predicted a major correction (see related post) where every single CHF pair had reached key higher timeframe support levels and buy zones at the same time.
A similar story is occurring in the major JPY cross pairs also at the same time we have the BOJ finally ending negative rates and hinting of more possible rate hikes this Year whilst other central banks are talking about cutting rates with the SNB leading the race last week.
First off is the USDJPY you can see on the Monthly chart where 152 is acting as a key resistance level that goes all the way back to 1990 this is a key technical level.
Next is the GBPJPY I did a post on this last week about the likelihood of a sell off from the 193 Monthly resistance level (see image below)
Then we have the AUDJPY which the 100 mark last week which is approaching a key resistance zone @101 above this zone has seen massive corrections in the past (see image below)
Next is the NZDJPY which I done a post on several months ago showing you the importance of the 93 resistance and the likelihood of a correction from this level which the chart below shows we got a rally to here followed by a sell off.
Next is the EURJPY which last week got the break above 165 before selling off shortly back below last years high of 164 the chart below shows 2 key resistance areas here @164 and @167 where we have seen massive sell offs before.
As you can see all the major pairs are at or approaching key Monthly resistance levels and sell zones where there have been huge corrections from in the past.
To me this is a massive correlation across all the major pairs and very much indicating that a change in the tide is coming very soon. This very much is mimicking exactly what happened with the CHF pairs this year.
Will the same happen with the JPY pairs only time will tell but it's looking very good there are several ways to trade this build into sell positions across all pairs off course this can increase your risk exposure and off course swap fees or you can trade yen futures.
Off course the timing of this reversal is the hard part as it's the Monthly charts could take several months to play out or more. And then there is the possibility that I am wrong and the YEN weakens more and all these major levels get blown out at the same time :)
Let me know what you think in the comments :)
Usdjpyanalysis
Minutes of the Bank of Japan`s January assembly - the opportunit
Minutes of the Bank of Japan's financial coverage assembly on January 22 and 23, 2024, complete textual content here:
Members agreed that they have got now no longer but reached the level in which the inflation goal may be done sustainably
Members proportion the view that the probabilities of attaining 2% inflation are increasing, so if we are able to affirm a tremendous cycle in wages and inflation, we are able to take into account finishing bad hobby charges and Unusual loosening steps
Some individuals stated the hazard of inflation exceeding the 2% goal had emerge as smaller
One member stated if a ruling on finishing bad hobby charges is delayed, it'd prevent efforts to attain the 2% goal and referred to as for a fast tightening.
One member stated now's a once-in-a-lifetime possibility to extrade financial coverage
One member stated the scope for financial coverage flexibility might be decrease for Japan as different nations pass to reduce hobby charges.
Some individuals trust that they have to forestall shopping for ETFs and JREITs if they could attain the inflation goal
Some individuals stated the BOJ isn't below stress to hurry up hobby fee will increase like in Western nations.
Decoding USD/JPY Future in a Changing Economic Landscape
Multi-Timeframe Technical Analysis for USD/JPY
1. Monthly Time Frame:
- Key Observation: Noticeable rejection of the USD/JPY price at a significant support level, indicating potential bullish sentiment or a reversal point.
- Additional Note: High liquidity observed at price highs, marked by two equal highs, which could signify resistance zones.
2. Weekly Time Frame:
- Key Observation: Transition in market structure from bearish to bullish, indicating a potential longer-term upward trend for USD/JPY.
3. Daily Time Frame:
- Key Observation: A shift in market sentiment is evident, aligning with the bullish outlook observed in the weekly timeframe.
Fundamental Analysis: Federal Reserve Policies and Economic Indicators
1. Federal Reserve's Stance:
- Policy Outlook: Continuation of a restrictive monetary policy for the foreseeable future, with the possibility of rate peaks being reached.
- Inflation Control: Strong emphasis on reducing inflation sustainably before policy easing.
2. Economic Indicators:
- Optimism on Inflation: Growing confidence in managing inflation, with potential rate cuts envisioned in 2024, though the exact timing remains uncertain.
3. Market Reaction:
- Impact on USD/JPY: The Federal Reserve's stance typically has a direct impact on USD/JPY. A more restrictive policy tends to strengthen the USD against the JPY, while a more dovish stance or rate cuts could weaken it.
4. Future Projections:
- Interest Rate Trajectory: Anticipation of three rate cuts in 2024, suggesting a potential future weakening of the USD against the JPY.
- Economic Growth Forecast: Slow growth expected in 2024, which could influence currency strength dynamics.
5. USD/JPY Specifics:
- Japanese Economic Factors: Apart from U.S. economic indicators, USD/JPY traders should also consider Japan's economic health, monetary policy, and geopolitical factors influencing the yen.
Trading Implications for USD/JPY
- Short-Term Strategy: The bullish technical signals on higher timeframes suggest potential long positions in the short to medium term. However, be mindful of resistance levels highlighted by the liquidity at price highs.
- Long-Term Outlook: Fundamental analysis indicates potential weakening of the USD in 2024 due to anticipated rate cuts. Traders may look for signs of trend reversal or strengthening of the JPY for future positioning.
- Risk Management: Keep an eye on upcoming Federal Reserve meetings and announcements, U.S. economic data releases, and Japanese economic indicators. These can cause significant volatility in the USD/JPY pair.
Conclusion
For USD/JPY, the current technical analysis suggests a bullish trend in the near term, but fundamental factors indicate potential shifts in 2024. You should maintain a balanced approach, staying updated with economic developments and central bank policies in both the U.S. and Japan. As with any currency trading, risk management and continual reassessment of the market conditions are crucial.
USDJPY possible double top#usdjpy price testing resistance level 151.70-90 which is high level of last year 2023. price need energy to fall down side for 148.90 & 148.00. time requires in building energy. suspect price will hold the resistance level to make double top. stop loss above the resistance level as 152.10, entry level 151.25 & 151.75. target: 148.90.
Swing trade long for USD/JPYUSD/JPY fell for five consecutive days by Monday's close, which was its worst 5-day run in three months. Yet two daily closed beneath the lower Keltner band and RSI (2) reaching oversold indicated that mean reversion higher was due.
Hotter-than-expected US inflation data confirmed our suspicions, and a bullish day broke the 5-day bearish sequence and confirmed a 3-bar bullish reversal (morning star) at the lower Keltner band.
Prices have already retraced partially within Tuesday's range, so bulls could either enter live at market or seek dips if it retraces further within yesterday's range. With a stop below Friday's low, bulls could target just beneath the 149 handle, the the 20-day EMA.
EUR: The Backbone of European Economic IntegrationThe Euro (EUR) stands as a symbol of unity and collaboration within the European Union (EU), serving as the common currency for member states in the Eurozone. Since its introduction in 1999, the Euro has played a pivotal role in fostering economic integration, stability, and growth across the region.
At its core, the Euro represents a shared commitment to cooperation and solidarity among EU nations. By adopting a common currency, countries within the Eurozone have eliminated exchange rate uncertainties and transaction costs, facilitating seamless trade and commerce.
Moreover, the Euro serves as a symbol of Europe's resilience and determination to overcome historical divisions and forge a common destiny. Its stability and credibility have bolstered confidence in European markets, attracting investment and promoting economic stability amidst global challenges.
Despite occasional economic turbulence and sovereign debt crises, the Euro has proven resilient, supported by the European Central Bank's (ECB) commitment to maintaining price stability and financial integrity. Initiatives such as the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) further strengthen the Euro's foundation, ensuring its sustainability and longevity.
In addition to its economic significance, the Euro plays a pivotal role in shaping global financial markets. As one of the world's leading reserve currencies, the Euro influences international trade, investment, and monetary policies, enhancing Europe's influence on the global stage.
Looking ahead, the Euro continues to evolve, adapting to new economic realities and geopolitical dynamics. Its role as a symbol of European unity and stability remains steadfast, guiding the continent towards a future of prosperity, resilience, and cooperation in an increasingly interconnected world.
#USDJPY: Possible 600 Pips Bullish Move Expected | It is on DXY|Happy weekends Everyone!
FX:USDJPY it had created higher and then dropped to fill the order blocks, now price is at very critical area, if DXY remain bullish next week we can see a nice and clean 600 bullish move. For JPY, it is already bearish and will likely to remain bearish next week as the current economic conditions are not stable. Currently, what we expecting , watch for price to come down to our area then we advise you to take buy entry with 70-100 pips max and set tp at 147-149-151 as followed.
Good luck and trade safe, remember to trade safe and use strict risk management.
USDJPY: First Entry dropped 400 pips, Focusing on ReentryDear Traders,
OANDA:USDJPY first entry dropped successfully 400 pips, now there is possibility of price filling up the liquidity and dropping from that region. Bullish price will likely to push the price up to our area of entry where price will fall strongly. Use accurate stop loss and take profit as described in our chart, if you have any doubt or finding it hard to understand something, please leave a comment.
good luck and trade safe as always
USDJPY I FOMC analysis and forecast Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
** USDJPY Analysis - Listen to video!
We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met.
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USD/JPY analysis (read caption)USD/JPY pair, we might notice a potential resistance level forming around 149.185. A break above this level could indicate bullish momentum, with the next significant resistance possibly around 149.500. However, if the market fails to break above 149.185, we might see a reversion to the downside, possibly targeting support levels such as 148.127.
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USDJPY → Day Analysis | BUY SetupHello Traders, here is the full analysis.
Price reversal going up, levels for BUY . USDJPY long
! Great BUY opportunity USDJPY
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💡 USDJPY: Forecast March 19USDJPY fluctuated insignificantly in the past session, still slowing down before the resistance area of 149.5. This may change today with the BoJ's new policy decision. You should patiently stay outside and observe, in case new notable bearish signals appear, especially on the daily frame. You may consider selling. This selling strategy only changes when the price breaks the 151 resistance and creates a higher peak.
USD/JPY H4 | Rising to 61.8% pullback supportUSD/JPY is rising towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to fall lower.
Buy entry is at 149.180 which is a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 149.915 which is a level that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
Take profit 1 is at 148.148 which is a pullback resistance that aligns close to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. Risk/Reward Ratio: 1 : 1.40
Take profit 2 is at 147.510 which is a pullback resistance that aligns close to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. Risk/Reward Ratio: 1 : 2.27
Total risk 1.28%
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
USDJPY: USD/JPY stabilizes, market focuses on BOJ interest rate The Japanese yen changed into mildly risky on Monday after a risky week amid hypothesis approximately an cease to the BOJ`s yield curve manage and terrible hobby quotes policies. The BOJ started a two-day assembly on Monday, with a choice to be introduced on Tuesday.
The USD/JPY change fee has fallen to 146 in line with dollar, specifically after reviews that Japanese hard work unions have performed big salary will increase this year. Recent facts additionally suggests that inflation stays stable, with each elements giving the BOJ sufficient self belief to cease its ultra-dovish policies.
However, analysts stay divided on whether or not the financial institution will increase hobby quotes in March or April, with the overall consensus barely leaning in the direction of an April move. BOJ predicted to elevate hobby quotes through 20% foundation factor to 0.1% from terrible 0.1%.
While any fee hike bodes properly for the yen, hypothesis over the timing of a fee hike has visible USD/JPY mark risky actions in latest weeks. The fee hovered round 149 on Monday.
USDJPY I BOJ will possibly end negative interest ratesWelcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
** USDJPY Analysis - Listen to video!
We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met.
Please support this idea with a LIKE and COMMENT if you find it useful and Click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email in the future.
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USDJPY bearish move will start**Monthly Chart**
USDJPY broke the high of August 1998 and moved higher in Oct 2022 which created a new swing high at around 150 level before drifting lower. This created a new strong level since then and the price was unable to break above it. Additionally, the price created a new MC in Nov 2023 and the price moved towards it and currently testing it.
**Weekly Chart**
This week I like to see USDJPY break the high one more time or at least test the high at around 149.50 level and provide a reversal indication to see it for around 800 pips Target. The move is going to be aggressive after BOJ news on Tuesday 19th March. This is the same for all JPY pairs.
**Daily Chart**
Last week we had a good buying opportunity after the close of the key daily reversal (Ring Low formation) then the price continued higher. This week, I will be looking to sell this pair only and other JPY pairs after BOJ news on Tuesday if the market provides it. My two scenarios are shown in the chart.
USDJPY HIGHER CONTEXT UPDATESIts been a while since I dont post this pair, Now looking good for its momentum. Well see how things works, previous price surge could be just a liquidity.
The idea is to make equal highs again. This idea is Buy only.
Trade at your own risk. This is not a financial advice either.
Follow for more higher context.
Patience is a Virtue, higher timeframe is Good thing bias on your scalping or Swing.
Trade with wisdom. follow your rules.
USDJPY is Ready to GO UP by Symmetrical Triangle Pattern🚀🏃♂️ USDJPY is moving near the 🟡 Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ)(147.520 JPY-147.318 JPY) 🟡.
✅It also seems that USDJPY has succeeded in forming a Symmetrical Triangle Pattern .
📚 What is a Symmetrical Triangle❗️❓
🔸 The symmetrical triangle, which can also be referred to as a coil, usually forms during a trend as a continuation pattern. The pattern contains at least two lower highs and two higher lows. When these points are connected, the lines converge as they are extended and the symmetrical triangle takes shape.
🔔I expect USDJPY to rise to at least the 🔴 Resistance zone(148.930 JPY-148.520 JPY) 🔴 after breaking the upper line of the triangle .
U.S.Dollar/Japanese Yen Analyze ( USDJPY ), 1-hour time frame⏰.
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USDJPY : Short Trade , 4hHello traders, we want to check the USDJPY chart. After breaking the uptrend line, the price is moving in a descending channel and has pulled back to the key level indicated. We expect this level to play the role of a resistance level and the price will fall to around 146,400. Good luck.