USDJPY May 21, 2024 Where will this price increase end?Hello everyone, DEEKOP is ready to bring the most accurate signals and assessments to everyone.
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Looking from H1, we see that black wave 3 is forming. in wave 3 black is forming a small wave structure
- In the small wave structure, wave 4 is expected to have completed at 156.114
- Next, we will continue to complete wave 5 using the measuring method, we have the target of wave 5 at 156.887.
- In our current trading plan, we can establish a Buy order with a short-term price target at 156,887.
Note: Sufficient TP, SL to be safe and win the market‼ ️Change data plan will be updated later.
Deekop's analysis is only a personal opinion with a desire to share its views with the community. I'm not always right. But my analysis always reflects my meticulous evaluation of what is best for an investment.
Usdjpyanalysis
USDJPY: The USD holds steady as markets look for interest rate dThe US dollar remained broadly stable today as market participants await additional indicators to determine US interest rate developments. This period of anticipation follows recent cautious comments from US Federal Reserve (Fed) officials and signs that inflation may be easing.
The Japanese yen fell slightly at the start of the week, trading at 155.80 against the dollar. Investors are closely watching for any signs of potential government intervention, with the yen showing minimal volatility in recent days.
The USD/JPY pair shows short-term bullish potential The USD/JPY currency pair is exhibiting short-term bullish potential, driven by a combination of macroeconomic factors and geopolitical events.
Fundamental Analysis:
Federal Reserve Policy: The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its current interest rate levels for the foreseeable future, delaying any potential rate cuts. This stance supports the US dollar, as higher interest rates relative to other major currencies attract investors seeking better returns.
Geopolitical Tensions:
The escalating tensions in the Middle East have increased the demand for safe-haven assets. Historically, the US dollar benefits from such geopolitical uncertainties as investors flock to it for safety, further bolstering its strength against other currencies, including the Japanese yen.
Technical Analysis:
The USD/JPY pair has recently tested and respected a key support level, indicating strong buying interest around this price point. Momentum indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) are showing bullish signals, suggesting that the pair is poised for an upward movement in the short term.
Conclusion:
Given the Fed's current stance on interest rates and the rising geopolitical risks, the USD/JPY pair is positioned for a bullish trend in the near term. Traders should consider this scenario and evaluate potential long positions to capitalize on the expected appreciation of the US dollar against the Japanese yen.
USDJPY on May 20, 2024 has the rising wave begun?Hello everyone, DEEKOP is ready to bring the most accurate signals and assessments to everyone.
Financial freedom is true freedom.
Based on the Elliot wave principle, we analyze the H1 chart
We see that the 5-wave small structure has completed on the H1 frame after which the price entered the corrective wave abc.
- Looking at this correction structure, we see that wave a b c has completed, the price is in the stage of completing the next rising wave.
- The adjustment process is officially determined when the price breaks out through the 155.98 area
- In the trading plan, we expect a good buying zone at the price range of 155.6 with TP at the 159 zone.
Note: Sufficient TP, SL to be safe and win the market‼ ️Change data plan will be updated later.
Deekop's analysis is only a personal opinion with a desire to share its views with the community. I'm not always right. But my analysis always reflects my meticulous evaluation of what is best for an investment.
DeGRAM | USDJPY upward wedge pullbackUSDJPY is moving within the boundaries of an ascending wedge.
The chart broke through the descending channel.
The price is under the resistance level, which coincides with the 50% retracement level of the last bearish impulse.
We expect a pullback.
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USDJPY: Can Japan use bond tools to support the Yen?Japanese authorities may have intervened twice in recent weeks to support the yen as it hit its lowest level in decades against the dollar, and they may have used reserves cash to do it.
BofA said a drop in demand for U.S. Treasury bonds could push up interest rates slightly and narrow spreads on the secured overnight lending rate (SOFR), a reference rate tied to mortgage agreements. Convenient to buy overnight.
USDJPY: USDJPY analysis todayDespite the dollar's general weakness against most of its counterparts, it continues to rise against the Japanese yen. The dollar rose 0.12% to 156.245 yen today, after previously reaching 156.80 yen. Japan's long-term yield remains low at 0.955%, even as the Bank of Japan's stance becomes more hawkish and the likelihood of a rate hike in June increases.
The dollar's recent peak against the yen on April 29, a 34-year high, prompted suspected interventions from the Bank of Japan and the Japanese Ministry of Finance. . Analysts, including IG's Tony Sycamore, speculate on the possibility of further intervention depending on the outcome of the US CPI report.
USDJPY SELL | Idea Trading AnalysisUSDJPY returned to the ascending channel and reached the dynamic support.
We expect a decline in the channel after testing the current level.
Hello Traders, here is the full analysis.
I think we can soon see more fall from this range! GOOD LUCK! Great SELL opportunity USDJPY
I still did my best and this is the most likely count for me at the moment.
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Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 🤝
USDJPY - Long - 1:2RRLooking to take a long at 156.784 (Daily resistance)
Confirmations
1. Closed into new range on the daily charts
2. Strong uptrend
3. Price has rejected off entry in the past
4. Monthly looks like it's trying to flip and drive
5. Price is slowing down near entry signalling a possible reversal
Stops are placed below the nearest 4 hour higher low
USDJPY SELL OPPORTUNITY Again USDJPY is giving us a Christmas gift with awesome reversal point. Clean H4 FVG, range below the main trendline, fibonacci reversal level (50-61.8 zone) and bearish divergence on H4 timeframe. Everything is good to hold USDJPY till the level 146.5 where we will probably have a strong rejection. It will need some weeks, probably months, but we will get there
💡USDJPY: Analysis May 14USDJPY increased yesterday, and bar D1 yesterday closed beyond the previous Inside bar pattern, creating a breakout to establish a new high, continuing the push to the bottom. This breakout could add further upside momentum to USDJPY D1. Structurally, USDJPY D1 is still moving sideways in the main price increase in D1.
USDJPY H1 broke out of the accumulation price range to set a new high price peak, returning to the short-term upward price trend. However, right now USDJPY H1 is starting to be overbought - overbought - because the price has exceeded the upper boundary. At this time, you should not buy to chase, but should wait for the recovery period to decline before buying USDJPY H1. The buy zone for the day is the round number 156.00 + the upward sloping trend line at the bottom. If this zone is broken down, USDJPY H1 will weaken and serve as a basis for the idea of waiting to sell later.
H1 trend: USDJPY increases.
Today's trading idea: Buy USDJPY.
USDJPY: The Japanese yen was little changedThe Japanese yen turned into little changed
The Japanese yen turned into mildly unstable on Monday, with USDJPY soaring simply under 156.
The recognition stays on any capability authorities intervention to assist the currency, after at the least instances of intervention in early May. The authorities is stated to have stepped in to deliver down the USDJPY charge from highs maximum in 34 years over one hundred sixty.
While one hundred sixty is taken into consideration the restrict for the authorities, analysts warn that intervention should nonetheless show up earlier than that.
USDJPY Looking for correction ??The USD/JPY pair has completed the impulsive wave sequence labeled as 1-2-3-4-5 and is now entering a corrective phase, typically labeled as A-B-C. The price has already formed waves A and B and is currently progressing towards wave C, which is expected to extend to the 1.618 Fibonacci extension level.
Additionally, the formation of a head and shoulders pattern suggests a potential reversal or a downward correction in the price. Here’s a written summary of the analysis:
USD/JPY Technical Analysis: - Impulsive Waves: Completed (1-2-3-4-5) - Corrective Waves: In progress (A-B-C) - Wave A: Completed - Wave B: Completed - Wave C: Targeting 1.618 Fibonacci extension Pattern Analysis: - Head and Shoulders pattern observed, indicating a potential reversal or correction.
USDJPY Friday planUSDJPY is on the way to perform a massive drop on the long term, but actually i am looking to scalp it on this boring friday. I am waiting a possible long setup, that could start with a little drop till the support zone 154.75, and here i expect a bounce. Only if the price will start to bounce there, i will look for a long tomorrow, at the beginning of the NY session
Timing the BOJ's next intervention? We have seen 2 interventions from the BOJ over the past 2 weeks.
The first came when the USDJPY hit between 158.000 and 160.000 and the second when it hit almost 158.000.
With the BOJ warning that it is ready and willing to step in again, how smart is it to try to catch the ride down if or when the BOJ steps in again?
Finance Minister Shunich Suzuki reiterated the authorities' readiness to counter excessive foreign exchange fluctuations.
At the same time, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda expressed intent to assess yen movements' impact on inflation for guiding policy decisions. "Foreign exchange rates make a significant impact on the economy and inflation,” Ueda underscored in response to questions in parliament yesterday. But this is perhaps a slightly different story, but still, something for traders to consider.
Last week, BOJ data suggested it had spent $60 billion to defend the yen.
But all this has done, according to some analysts, is buy the Japanese authorities time, with the USDJPY steadily climbing back to intervention levels (given the substantial interest rate difference between Japan and the US).
But can we expect the BOJ to intervene again and again?
US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen emphasized interventions should be infrequent and ideally coordinated with the broader central banking community, or at least signaled in advance. So, the BOJ will be wary of its international reputation too.
USDJPY → Huge Fall from 160.000 Heading for 148.000!?USD/JPY raced to test 160.000 last week and as expected, had a massive sell-off that ended Friday just below the 152.000 breakout area. Should we still be long? Or is it time to get short?
How do we trade this? 🤔
The question in my last analysis was are we in for a hard sell-off? And should we buy these pullbacks? The conditions we see today change the perspective on buying the pullbacks. That wasn't just any sell-off, that was a hard rejection and reversal pattern.
The sell-off from 160.200 dropped nearly 600 pips in 8 hours. This was followed by a meandering pullback toward the previous candle close high of around 158.400, which ended in another massive drop to 153.100. We then had a final bear push just below the breakout level of 152.000.
We can read this a couple of ways, the first is that this is our re-test of the breakout area as I expected two analyses ago where I expected a confirmation of the 152.000 area as support before making it to 160.000:
However, we never tested 152.000, we went to 160.000 in rapid fashion first. Such volatility is a sign of a reversal or at least, a push below the breakout level. We have a rough double-top from the initial sell-off, then its follow-up, followed by a third push to the breakout point.
We're three pushes up after the 152.000 breakout, a massive sell signal and follow-through at the 1990 Key Resistance Level of 160.400, and we've closed below the 4HR 200EMA. A similar pattern played out in October 2022 with some slight differences as seen here:
October 2022 Pattern:
This was the first time we touched 152.000 and had a massive sell-off, followed by the same meandering pullback to the 4HR 30EMA, which acted as a rough head-and-shoulders reversal pattern. However, the close was below the 4HR 30EMA on the pullback and above the 200EMA on the first bounce. This time, the pullback went above the 4HR 30EMA to touch the channel top and then closed below the 4HR 200EMA.
That last point is a key difference. Both instances are clear reversal signals with follow-through, but the 160.000 rejection was much stronger with a close below the 4HR 200EMA. If the price comes back up to test that 200EMA and gets rejected, that's our signal to short. I would then be targeting levels below 152.000, where the price previously met resistance, which will now likely act as support. Those levels are 150.800 and 148.800.
It's very possible we fall much further. But I recommend waiting for that rejection from the 4HR 200EMA and then short 1:2 Risk/Reward to those two key levels. It would be reasonable to swing 25%-50% of your position to lower levels if the price action warrants it. If the price does not get rejected at the 4HR 200EMA, we need to wait and see if the bullish pressure resumes and adjust our bias accordingly. We are still in the channel, the confirmed break below is what we need to justify getting short.
💡 Trade Idea 💡
Short Entry: 153.550
🟥 Stop Loss: 155.800
✅ Take Profit: 149.050
⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:2
🔑 Key Takeaways 🔑
1. Three pushes up after the 152.000 breakout to the key level of 160.400
2. Strong rejection and follow-through back down to the 152.000 level
3. This strong volatility at the end of a trend is a sign of a reversal
4. Enter a 1:2 Risk/Reward trade down to 149.050. Potentially swing some of your position lower.
5. RSI at 35.00 and below the Moving Average, supports pullback before fall.
💰 Trading Tip 💰
The longer a trend continues after 3 legs, the probability of that trend continuing lessens. Because of this decreased probability, we ought to reduce our risk when entering trades and start looking for reversals.
⚠️ Risk Warning! ⚠️
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. You are solely responsible for your trades. Trade at your own risk!
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💡 USDJPY: Analysis May 7USDJPY is still continuing to adjust upward as expected, currently the important conversion resistance level around 156 is being approached, this is the price area where we are looking to sell, please pay attention to the signals here as the price approaches, Consider reopening short positions if reliable bearish signals appear, especially on the daily frame.
USDJPY SELL 156.00 - 156.20
TP: 155.50
SL: 156.55