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Usdjpyanalysis

USDJPY Carry Trade PressureThis summer, quiet markets favored the carry trade. Popular funding currencies here are still the JPY and the CNY. The carry trade involves borrowing low-interest currency and investing in high-interest currency to profit from interest rate differential and exchange rate movements. Traders often use JPY and CNY as funding currencies due to their low-interest rates and stable exchange rates, with USD being a popular target currency due to its higher interest rates and a strong economy. A higher USD/JPY means that the USD appreciates against the JPY, which is good for the carry trade. A lower USD/JPY means that the JPY is appreciating against the USD, which is bad for the carry trade. Short-covering rallies in the JPY may happen during risk-off periods, such as the bond sell-off in early August. However, the carry trade can only be disrupted by a consistent increase in volatility. July's adjustment to the Bank of Japan's Yield Curve Control, which involved raising the cap on 10-year JGB yields to 1.00% from 0.5%, did not result in a stronger yen. No additional changes by the Bank of Japan are expected until late October. It seems that the BoJ may have to intervene once more if the USD/JPY goes above 145/146 in order to limit its topside. If we see a weaker dollar in 4Q as well as some additional BoJ adjustments will may see it push back down to 130. Just a small note, I did not enter the trade yet. For now it remains an idea
Short
by RomanoRnr
UsdJpy- Will it test 150 again?Two weeks ago I drew attention to the 145 level that should provide support for UsdJpy. Indeed, the pair reversed twice from this level with a very strong reversal last Friday. As we clearly see from the chart, the trend is strongly bullish, and the only thing that brings some buying power for JPY is BoJ. I expect continuation to the upside and a new test of 150. However, as I just said, KEEP IN MIND A BOJ INTERVENTION AND USE STOP LOSS!!!
Long
by Mihai_Iacob
22
USDJPY | Perspective for the new week | Follow-upIn Japan, the Bank of Japan's Governor Kazuo Ueda highlighted that underlying inflation remains slightly below the 2% target during a Federal Reserve research symposium. This observation reaffirms the central bank's commitment to maintaining the current monetary policy approach. Despite core consumer inflation in Japan hitting 3.1% in July, companies passing on higher costs have sustained inflation above the 2% target for the 16th consecutive month. Meanwhile, in the U.S., Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's recent speech at the Jackson Hole symposium solidified the Fed's intention to uphold a 'higher for longer' outlook on interest rates and bond yields. This stance is a boon for dollar enthusiasts, especially considering the contrasting economic scenarios. The U.S. economy is exhibiting robust performance, with the latest Atlanta Fed tracking estimate indicating a near-6% annualized growth rate. The widening short-dated yield spreads, which often influence exchange rates, favor the dollar over the Yen in recent weeks. This shift enhances the potential for the dollar to ascend into a higher trading range relative to the Yen. As we navigate the upcoming week, it's crucial to consider these significant market drivers. USDJPY Technical Analysis: In this video, we conduct an in-depth technical analysis of the USDJPY chart, carefully examining the current market structure which is evidently bullish. Our primary focus is still within the key zone of 146.500, which will serve as our center of focus ahead of the upcoming week. As price action remains within this zone, it becomes an area of interest that has led to choppy consolidation before a clear direction emerges. The market's reaction around this area at the beginning of the new week will heavily influence the trajectory of price action in the days to come. Join me on this journey as we explore potential trading opportunities using trendlines, key levels, and chart patterns. Be sure to stay connected to my channel, follow my updates, and actively engage in the comment section as we navigate the dynamic USDJPY market together. Wishing you the best of luck as you chart your course in the USDJPY market this week. #USDJPY #technicalanalysis #tradingopportunities #inflation #monetarypolicy #Fed #interestrates #economicanalysis #Forextrading Disclaimer Notice: Please be aware that margin trading in the foreign exchange market, including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks, and other instruments, carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The content of this speculative material, including all data, is provided by me for educational purposes only and to assist in making independent investment decisions. All information presented here is for reference purposes only, and I do not assume any responsibility for its accuracy. It is important that you carefully evaluate your investment experience, financial situation, investment objectives, and risk tolerance level. Before making any investment, it is advisable to consult with your independent financial advisor to assess the suitability of your circumstances. Please note that I cannot guarantee the accuracy of the information provided, and I am not liable for any loss or damage that may directly or indirectly result from the content or the receipt of any instructions or notifications associated with it. Remember that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Keep this in mind while considering any investment opportunities.
by darcsherry
USDJPY - Short - Idea**USD/JPY Technical Analysis: ** Currency Pair: USD/JPY Current Price: 146.400 The USD/JPY pair is trading at 146.400 after a strong upward movement, it seems that buyers are not as interested as before. This shows on the Daily chart's RSI, which is a tool that helps us understand the market. The RSI is showing a clear divergence, which means things might change soon. I believe the sellers could take control soon, so I'm making a trade. I'm selling the pair at 146.400. To protect myself, I've set a Stop Loss at 147.000. If all goes well, my take profit is at 145.400. This means the reward is potentially 100 pips, while the risk is about 60 pips. Remember, trading has risks, so it's important to be careful. I'm sharing this analysis to help make decisions, but it's always smart to keep an eye on the market in case things change.
Short
by MHasnain
4
USDJPY Counter Trend & Possible Start Of Short Term Bear MarketUSDJPY had a magnificent rally that lasted over 6-weeks. Unfortunately, nothing last forever and trends have a short-term span. I first noticed the pair going into a possible consolidation once it hit YTD highs and rejected it on 08/29/2023. Price was already showing struggle to break higher from the beginning of this month and been in a 3-week consolidation. I first look to take a short to range lows around 145.00, then will liquidate my positions and be in cash until further evidence of selling pressure is confirmed. We could get a bounce from 145.00 support, a false breakout back to monthly highs or a possible continuation south to test monthly lows. I am not here to predict the price moves, just going with my evidence and prepared for a possible false move against my position at any time so trailing-stop losses will be applied as the market continues in my favor for as long as the trend goes on. My only concern is that price is struggling to break below 145.70 which is a conflicting support that I wish to see taken out in the next several hours or my sells will start to be in question. Worst case scenario is that my entry is stopped out due to irregular market conditions and whipsaws around back to 146.50 which is the current 2-day range going on in real-time. If that happens then I will close out my sell positions and be neutral as the market would be in the most unfavorable condition and I do not want to tie my margin into something not going as planned.
Short
by bajapips
Analyzing the bearish case for USD/JPY Hello everyone, in this analysis, we will take a look at the bearish scenario for USD/JPY. As you can see from the chart, USD/JPY is currently at the upper trend line of the rising channel, which increases the probability of a reversal. 📌Yesterday, a bearish daily candlestick had formed at the upper TL. So, if price doesn't rise above 147, we can expect a reversal back to the 141 level. 📌 My recommendation is to sell the rallies in USDJPY@146.50-147 with Stop loss above the upper TL and TP at 141
Short
by MarcellusLUX
Gold Hits Record High Against Yen, Defies USD, So Sell JPY?I write to you today with concern and urgency as the gold market takes an unprecedented turn. In recent weeks, gold has reached record highs against the Japanese Yen (JPY), potentially defying the US Dollar (USD) dominance. This unexpected development calls for immediate attention and careful consideration, as it could have significant implications for traders like yourself. The Gold-Yen Relationship: For years, the USD has been the primary currency in which gold is priced and traded globally. However, the recent surge in gold's value against the JPY suggests a potential shift in the market dynamics. Historically, gold has been seen as a safe-haven asset during times of economic uncertainty, and its rise against the Yen may reflect growing concerns about the Japanese economy or geopolitical tensions in the region. Implications for Traders: As traders, it is crucial to recognize the potential impact of this gold-yen relationship on your portfolios. The weakening JPY could increase demand for gold, driving its price higher and potentially causing a ripple effect across various financial markets. Ignoring these warning signs could expose your investments to unnecessary risks. Short-Term Selling on JPY: Given these developments, I strongly urge you to consider a short-term selling strategy on the JPY. By taking advantage of the current gold-Yen dynamics, you can profit from the uptrend in gold prices against the Japanese currency. However, it is crucial to approach this strategy cautiously and seek advice from trusted financial advisors or experts. Seek Professional Guidance: Navigating the complexities of the financial markets requires expertise and careful analysis. Therefore, I encourage you to consult with professionals who can provide tailored advice based on your circumstances. They can help you devise a trading plan that aligns with your risk tolerance and investment goals, ensuring you make informed decisions. Conclusion: The record-breaking surge of gold against the Japanese Yen serves as a wake-up call for traders worldwide. By considering a short-term selling strategy on the JPY, you can potentially capitalize on the current market dynamics and safeguard your investments. However, always remember the importance of seeking professional guidance to ensure your actions align with your financial objectives. Take action now and stay ahead of the curve. The gold-Yen relationship demands your attention, and making informed decisions today will position you for success in the ever-evolving financial landscape.
Short
by bryandowningqln
Why USD/JPY bulls should be cautious at these highsUSD/JPY has continued to defy gravity despite the growing threat of verbal (or actual) yen intervention by the MOF/BOJ. Yet the higher and faster it rises, so does the threat of intervention. You can see what impact it had on USD/JPY from the large bearish candle that formed on 23 October 2022, where the initial break above 150 was then met with a swift move lower and subsequent -16.3% decline over the next 2.5 months. However, what has caught our eye today is that recent cycle highs have stalled around the 10 October high, the day a softer-than-expected US inflation report saw the US dollar plunge. There is also a volume node from the choppy price action in October at 147.1, and such HVNs can act as both a magnet to attract prices and also become support/resistance. And given USD/JPY’s recent pattern of breaking key levels and cycle highs before reversing, we’re a little sceptical of bullish breakouts – especially with the growing threat of verbal/actual intervention. Furthermore, the US02Y-JP02Y spread has stalled just beneath its March high, so perhaps USD/JPY is at least due a pullback before it tries to break higher. Either way, we’d prefer to buy dips over breakouts. And as for any potential pullback, we’d prefer to wait for a breakout to become a ‘fakeout’ (where prices move back below the initial breakout level) before shorting against the trend.
by CityIndex
USD/JPY: Long Trading OpportunityUSD/JPY Daily USD/JPY breaks the range and uptrend continues to the next level 151.94. SUGGESTED TRADE: BUY USD/JPY ENTRY - around 147.130 SL - 144.400 TP - 151.600 Client Sentiment: Retail trader data shows 73% of traders are net-short. We typically take a contrarian view to crowd client sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests USD/JPY prices may continue to rise. Traders are further net-short than the last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger USD/JPY-bullish contrarian trading bias. Keep It Simple and Always Trade With the Trend! Please, Support Our Work with Like & Comment! Thank You!
Long
by ForexWithTsanev