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Usdjpyanalysis

Fundamental Market Analysis for May 9, 2025 USDJPYUSDJPY: The Japanese yen (JPY) rises against its US counterpart during the Asian session on Thursday and reverses part of the previous day's correction from a one-week high. Minutes from the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) March meeting showed that the central bank remains open to further tightening if the economic and price outlook persists. This, along with a rebound in safe-haven demand, is lending support to the Japanese Yen, which, along with the emergence of fresh US Dollar (USD) selling, is keeping the USD/JPY pair below the 144.00 round figure. Optimism over the start of trade talks between the US and China, which will take place this week in Switzerland, is fading rather quickly amid uncertainty over how a new deal between the world's two largest economies might be structured. In addition, US President Donald Trump has denied that he will reduce tariffs against China, dampening hopes of a speedy resolution to the trade war between the world's two largest economies. In addition, persistent geopolitical risks kept investors on edge and proved to be the key factor that influenced the yen's growth amid the general weakening of the dollar. Trading recommendation: SELL 145.80, SL 146.00, TP 144.90
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
USD/JPY H4 | Approaching a swing-high resistanceThe hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve and the market's optimistic sentiment regarding a potential Sino-US trade agreement have driven the overall strength of the US dollar. The Federal Reserve's suspension of interest rate cuts and the absence of hints of near-term rate cuts have enhanced the attractiveness of the US dollar, providing support for the upward movement of the USD/JPY exchange rate. On the four-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator has reversed downward from the zero line, which coincides with the reversal on the daily chart, forming a strong reversal pattern. The price is testing the support of the MACD line and the key level of 143.45. If the daily candlestick closes below the 143.45 level, it will open the path for a decline towards 141.70 and even the lower boundary of the price channel near 139.50. If the closing price is higher than yesterday's high of 144.00, it is likely to rise towards 144.75, with a long-term target of 145.91. Considering the actual closing price of 145.0930, the upward scenario has been activated. In addition, the MACD indicator shows that the bullish momentum has been somewhat restored, but it is still in the initial stage of the rebound. The RSI indicator remains above 45 and has not entered the strong area, indicating that the current exchange rate is in the stage of consolidation and accumulation of momentum. Although there has been a certain upward movement in the short term, the overall strength of the bulls and bears has not reached an obviously strong state. you are currently struggling with losses, or are unsure which of the numerous trading strategies to follow, at this moment, you can choose to observe the operations within our channel.
Short
by HilaryBloomer
1
Yen rally ends, markets eyes Fed rate decision and BoJ minutesCurrently, the market sentiment is rather complex. On the one hand, some traders are betting on the restart of negotiations by the US side, believing that policy uncertainty will be alleviated with the convening of the meeting. On the other hand, from the perspective of the capital market, the market's concern about the medium - to - long - term depreciation trend of the US dollar is increasing. In particular, the " $2.5 trillion capital withdrawal" view proposed by the Eurizon SLJ report, if realized, will substantially suppress the US dollar. In the short term, if the USD/JPY exchange rate fails to hold above the 145.5 level, the rebound may come to an end, and the price may test the two key support levels of 143.00 and 141.650. Especially if the Fed's policy language continues to be dovish, the exchange rate may decline further. you are currently struggling with losses, or are unsure which of the numerous trading strategies to follow, at this moment, you can choose to observe the operations within our channel.
Short
by HilaryBloomer
USD/JPY) Bullish trand analysis Read The ChaptianSMC Trading point update Technical analysis of USD/JPY on the 2-hour timeframe, and it presents a bullish continuation setup. Here's a breakdown of the key elements and the idea behind the analysis: --- 1. Ascending Channel Formation The price is trading within an ascending channel, suggesting a controlled uptrend. Higher highs and higher lows confirm the trend structure. 2. Key Support and Fair Value Gap (FVG) There’s a well-identified support level where price has bounced before (highlighted in yellow). A Fair Value Gap (FVG) zone is marked slightly above the support level, which could act as a short-term demand area. Price is currently pulling back into this zone, potentially setting up a buying opportunity. 3. EMA 200 Support The 200 EMA (~143.78) is acting as dynamic support just below the current price. If price drops further, this level may offer strong technical support. 4. RSI Momentum RSI is above 50 (currently 56.37), supporting the bullish trend and showing room for continued upside. 5. Target Point The chart anticipates a bounce off the support/FVG zone and a rally toward the upper boundary of the channel, targeting 147.153. Mr SMC Trading point --- Summary of the Idea: This is a bullish continuation setup within an uptrend channel. The analyst expects a potential long entry around the FVG/support zone, with a target at the channel top (147.15). Confluence from the EMA 200, RSI, and previous structure supports this bullish bias. Pales support boost 🚀 analysis follow)
Long
by SMC-Trading-Point
15
Analysis of the Latest SignalsRecently, the situation in Ukraine and Russia has remained tense, and the conflict in the Middle East has escalated (such as the confrontation between Israel and the Houthi armed forces in Yemen), prompting funds to flow to traditional safe - haven currencies. However, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) maintained a dovish stance last week and did not clarify the interest - rate - hike path, which limited the upside potential of the yen. Although inflation in Japan persists and wage growth is strong (the largest increase in 34 years), the BoJ's cautious attitude towards economic recovery has led the market to lower the interest - rate - hike expectations for June and July, putting pressure on the yen. you are currently struggling with losses, or are unsure which of the numerous trading strategies to follow, at this moment, you can choose to observe the operations within our channel.
Long
by HilaryBloomer
USDJPY Retest of Supply Zone Before Bearish ContinuationUSDJPY pair is reacting to key supply around 143.70–144.00 but shows signs of weakness after failing to hold above this level. With renewed risk-off sentiment and escalating global trade tensions—especially involving Japan and the U.S.—this pair may be setting up for a bearish continuation. Here's what both the chart and macro backdrop suggest. 📊 Technical Breakdown (4H Chart) Key Supply Zone Retested: The pair retraced into a previously broken structure zone (blue box), rejecting the 143.70–144.00 area multiple times. Price is now forming lower highs, indicating bearish pressure building beneath resistance. Bearish Continuation Pattern: Price action resembles a bear flag, with a minor pullback likely before continuation lower. A retest of 143.00–143.50 could serve as an ideal sell zone. Major Support Levels: 142.04–142.02: Immediate support, already tested. 140.16: Key structure low from late April. 138.04: Final measured move target based on Fibonacci extension and prior demand zone. Bearish Trade Setup: Entry Zone: 143.00–143.50 Stop: Above 145.35 TP1: 142.00 TP2: 140.15 TP3: 138.00 🌐 Macro Fundamentals Trump Tariffs Stir Instability: President Trump is pressing Japan in trade talks with threats of new tariffs, already impacting investor confidence A 25% tariff on Japanese auto exports has gone into effect, disrupting trade negotiations. Urgency for a Deal, But No Progress Yet: Trump says multiple deals are “coming,” but little substance has emerged. Analysts fear economic fallout and potential global recession if tensions continue JPY Strengthening on Safe-Haven Flows: With U.S. economic indicators weakening and global uncertainty rising, the yen may benefit from risk aversion. ✅ Summary USDJPY remains vulnerable to downside continuation from the 143–144 resistance zone. If price breaks below 142.00 again with conviction, expect momentum to build toward 140.15 and potentially 138.00.
Short
by ultreosforex
4
Bullish Breakout from Falling WedgeThe exchange rate of the US dollar against the Japanese yen shows a slight downward trend. The opening rate of the US dollar against the Japanese yen on that day was 144.8740. During the trading session, it hit a high of 144.9890 and a low of 144.085. The latest trading price is 144.082, which is 0.60% lower than the closing price of 144.9180 in the New York foreign exchange market on the previous trading day. Buffett has warned of the risks of the US dollar, and funds may flow to safe - haven assets such as the Japanese yen, which may have had a certain impact on the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Japanese yen. On the other hand, from a technical perspective, according to the chart data, the "Daily Chart PP" of the US dollar / Japanese yen shows that its pivot point is at 158.27, and the maximum coverage range of the corresponding support and resistance is 157.29 - 159.33. The current exchange rate is at a relatively low level and may be attracted by the lower support level. you are currently struggling with losses, or are unsure which of the numerous trading strategies to follow, at this moment, you can choose to observe the operations within our channel.
Long
by HilaryBloomer
1
USD/JPY "The Gopher" Forex Bank Heist Plan (Swing/Day)🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo! Marhaba!🌟 Dear Money Makers & Robbers, 🤑💰✈️ Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the USD/JPY "The Gopher" Forex Market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes short entry. Our aim is the Green Zone. Risky level, oversold market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bullish robbers are stronger. 🏆💸"Take profit and treat yourself, traders. You deserve it!💪🏆🎉 Entry 📈 : "The vault is wide open! Swipe the Bearish loot at any price - the heist is on! however I advise to Place sell limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe most nearest or swing, low or high level for Pullback Entries. Stop Loss 🛑: 📌Thief SL placed at the nearest/swing High or Low level Using the 1D timeframe (148.800) Day/Scalping trade basis. 📌SL is based on your risk of the trade, lot size and how many multiple orders you have to take. Target 🎯: 140.000 (or) Escape Before the Target 💰💵💸USD/JPY "The Gopher" Forex Market Heist Plan (Swing/Day Trade) is currently experiencing a Bearish trend.., driven by several key factors.👇👇👇 📰🗞️Get & Read the Fundamental, Macro, COT Report, Quantitative Analysis, Sentimental Outlook, Intermarket Analysis, Future trend targets... go ahead to check 👉👉👉🔗🔗 Detailed Explanation Recap ✨ Fundamentals: Policy divergence + trade risks ⚖️ favor JPY 💪. Macro: US slowdown 📉 + Japan resilience 🌱 lift JPY. Global Markets: Risk-off flows 🛡️ + yield dynamics 📜 boost JPY. COT: Speculative unwinding 📉 aligns with bearish pressure. Seasonality: Mild JPY edge in April 🌸. Intermarket: USD weakness 💸 across assets aids JPY. Quantitative: Technicals confirm bearish 📉. Sentiment: Broad bearish tilt 😟, retail as contrarian 🚨. Trend Prediction: Downward bias 📉 across timeframes. Outlook: Strong bearish case 🐻 with clear targets. ⚠️Trading Alert : News Releases and Position Management 📰 🗞️ 🚫🚏 As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions, we recommend the following: Avoid taking new trades during news releases Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits 💖Supporting our robbery plan 💥Hit the Boost Button💥 will enable us to effortlessly make and steal money 💰💵. Boost the strength of our robbery team. Every day in this market make money with ease by using the Thief Trading Style.🏆💪🤝❤️🎉🚀 I'll see you soon with another heist plan, so stay tuned 🤑🐱‍👤🤗🤩
Short
by Thief_Trader
USD/JPY) bullish trend analysis Read The ChaptianSMC Trading point update Technical analysis of USD/JPY chart shows a bullish reversal setup. Here’s a breakdown behind the analysis: 1. Downtrend & Channel Breakout: Price was trending downward within a descending channel (marked “channel trend”). Recently, the price broke out of the channel, signaling a potential trend reversal. 2. Demand Zone (Diamond Zone): The yellow box labeled “Diamond Zone” represents a demand/support zone where price previously found buyers. A retest of this zone is expected before the bullish move. 3. EMA (200): The EMA (200) is currently above the price but close. A break above this level (142.522) could add to bullish momentum. 4. RSI Indicator: RSI is showing a bounce off a mid-level (~50), suggesting bullish momentum is gaining. 5. Target Level: The analysis targets 147.838, which aligns with a prior resistance zone. The move projects a 5.19% gain (~778.5 pips) from the current setup. Trading Idea Summary: Entry: Around the “Diamond Zone” after a successful retest. Confirmation: Watch for bullish candlestick patterns or a break above EMA 200. Target: 147.838 Stop Loss (implied): Below the Diamond Zone (~140.000) Pales support boost 🚀 analysis follow)
Long
by SMC-Trading-Point
18
USDJPY Long PositionUSDJPY pair is currently positioned at a key support zone, where price action has historically reversed direction. Following a recent rebound from this level, the pair retested the support area. Given the broader uptrend structure (characterized by higher highs and higher lows), this retest presents a potential opportunity to enter long positions, contingent on bullish confirmation at this critical juncture. Key Observations: Established Uptrend: The pair’s consistent upward trajectory on higher time frames supports a bullish bias. Support Retest: The current pullback to the support zone aligns with typical price behavior in trending markets, where retests of prior levels often precede trend resumptions, but a decisive close below the support would invalidate the bullish setup, potentially signaling a trend reversal or deeper correction. Risk Management Strategy: A prudent approach would involve placing a stop-loss below the support zone to protect against a breakdown, while targeting the next resistance level for profit-taking. Final Assessment: The setup aligns with bullish momentum, provided the support holds.
Long
by sirkamal
1
USD/JPY Eyes Breakout After Healthy Wave 4 CorrectionThe USD/JPY pair is currently unfolding a clean impulsive 5-wave structure to the upside. The price action has already completed Waves 1, 2, and 3, and has entered a probable Wave 4 correction. Wave 3 appears extended and tapped into a key Fair Value Gap (FVG), which acted as resistance. Wave 4 is likely to develop as a shallow retracement, possibly forming a bull flag or expanded flat before launching into Wave 5. The ascending channel supports the bullish structure with both Wave 2 and Wave 4 respecting lower bounds. Targets: 144.750 - 144.351 Stoploss: 146.268
by Money_Dictators
1
DeGRAM | USDJPY Keeps the Demand Zone📊 Technical Analysis ● USD/JPY has broken the falling-wedge top and is holding above the 142.20 breakout line; that keeps 144.03 → 147.5 in scope. 💡 Fundamental Analysis ● U.S. March retail sales surged 1.4 %, underscoring resilient demand. ✨ Summary A wedge breakout plus firm U.S. data, a hawkish Fed and a dovish BOJ favour more dollar strength; holding above 142.20 keeps USD/JPY on track for $144.03–147.5. ------------------- Share your opinion in the comments and support the idea with like. Thanks for your support!
Long
by DeGRAM
1
Technicals USDJPY Key Level (Horizontal Resistance) A horizontal resistance zone around 143.90 has been tested multiple times. Price is currently retesting this zone, marked as an "Entry Zone", suggesting a potential breakout or rejection. 2. Price Structure Prior downtrend bottomed near 140.00, then formed higher lows, showing a potential trend reversal. Current price is approaching the resistance with strong bullish candles, indicating possible momentum buildup. 3. Volume Volume spikes align with swing highs and lows, suggesting these moves were backed by stronger participation. 4. Scenarios Outlined Bullish Path (Black Arrow): Breakout above the entry zone could lead to targets near 147.00–150.00, continuing a bullish reversal. Bearish Path (Red Wave): Rejection at the resistance may cause a drop toward 140.00, forming a ranging or distribution pattern. The Fed (USD) maintains relatively high interest rates, while the BoJ (JPY) continues a dovish stance, creating upward pressure on USD/JPY.
Long
by xxChartWhizxx
USD/JPYThe Japanese Yen (JPY) oscillates in a narrow trading band at the start of a new week and remains close to a two-week trough touched against its American counterpart on Friday. Mixed signals from the US and China temper hopes for a quick resolution of the trade conflict between the world's two largest economies, which, in turn, offers support to the safe-haven JPY. Moreover, expectations that Japan will strike a trade deal with the US turn out to be another factor underpinning the JPY. Meanwhile, investors have been scaling back their bets for an immediate interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) as rising economic risks from US tariffs overshadow signs of broadening inflation in Japan. This holds back the JPY bulls from placing aggressive bets, which, along with a modest US Dollar (USD) uptick, acts as a tailwind for the USD/JPY pair. However, the divergent BoJ-Federal Reserve (Fed) policy expectations should cap the USD and benefit the lower-yielding JPY.
Short
by xauusd_rr
2
USD/JPY Bullish Breakout Setup: Key Resistance at 144.939 and TaEntry Point: ~144.037 Stop Loss: ~144.939 (above the recent resistance zone) Resistance Zone: Between 144.037 and 144.939 (highlighted by purple area) First Target Point (EA Target Point): ~139.731 (Bearish target if reversal happens) Second Target Point (Bullish EA Target Point): ~148.737 Current Price: As of the chart, price is around 143.743, slightly below the entry point. Possible Scenarios: Bullish Breakout: If price breaks and closes above 144.939, expect strong bullish momentum toward 148.737. Confirmation: Look for strong bullish candles with volume above the resistance zone. Bearish Rejection: If price fails to break 144.939 and shows bearish reversal patterns (e.g., bearish engulfing), a pullback toward 144.037 or even down to 139.731 is likely. Additional Notes: The orange circles highlight key points where price respected trendlines and support zones — showing strong buyer interest. A rising trendline (drawn underneath recent lows) supports the ongoing bullish structure. Risk-Reward seems well balanced: small risk (~90 pips) for a potential reward (~400+ pips). Summary: Bias: Cautiously bullish, but watch carefully around the 144.939 resistance. Action: Wait for a clean breakout or a rejection pattern before deciding.
by EA_GOLD_MAN_COPY_TRADE
7
buy is coming on USDJPYThe USD/JPY pair recently experienced a bearish movement, which is largely influenced by heightened concerns surrounding the ongoing trade and tariff tensions between the U.S. and its global counterparts. This risk-off sentiment triggered a flight to safe-haven assets, weighing on the pair. However, price action has now approached a key trendline support zone, which has held firmly in previous sessions. Technical indicators like RSI are also beginning to show signs of bullish divergence, suggesting a potential reversal. If this trendline continues to act as strong support, we may see a bullish bounce from the current level, aligning with the overall ascending trend structure but if the trade break these support zones, then the bearish movement might continues for now we will be watching for confirmation signals such as bullish candlestick patterns or a break above near-term resistance levels to validate the upward movement.
Long
by Adhemola
USDJPY – Searching for a Bottom After a Brutal DropSince the start of the year, USDJPY has been in an almost free fall, losing nearly 2,000 pips and breaking multiple key supports, including the critical 150 level. Yesterday, we even saw a spike below 140, a level not touched for quite some time. 🔄 However, after that spike, the pair reversed sharply to the upside, showing strong demand in that area. Interestingly, this zone was tested at the start of 2024 and again back in September, adding even more technical relevance. 📊 Despite the poor outlook for the USD overall, I now expect a meaningful rebound from here, aiming for a retest of the former 146 support, which has now turned into resistance. 💡 Trading Plan: I will be looking to buy dips near the current support, targeting a 1:3 Risk/Reward setup toward the 146 resistance area. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analyses and educational articles.
Long
by Mihai_Iacob
6