UsdJpy could return to 150In mid-September, USD/JPY dropped below the 141.80 technical support level and even briefly fell under 140.
However, this bearish move was short-lived and ultimately proved to be a false breakout. The pair quickly recovered, and despite some signs of a potential continuation of the downtrend from the trend line on Monday and Tuesday, yesterday's session was marked by a strong bullish engulfing candle that broke above the falling trend line.
At this point, the path for further gains seems clear, with 147 and possibly 150 as upside targets for the bulls.
In conclusion, as long as technical support holds, I am looking to buy on dips.
Usdjpyanalysis
UJ update 9-25 AM - is the downside OVER on the weekly? Targets and updates!
Weekly down to hourly.
We are in a rotation between the previously marked important regions - the "PINK" wkly region has continued to provide insight and the 1H gap as noted has held price as we rotate between these regions. What to look for as bullish signs we are heading up and where are those targets above? Is the downside RULED OUT?.. well, there is a note worth making here IMO.. see the video for all the areas and explanation..
Happy Trading -- Doc!
USDJPY Analysis for the Week of 24th September 2024: 150.000 !!The USDJPY pair has been a subject of interest in the forex market as it approaches a critical psychological level of 150.000. Traders are speculating whether the pair could reach this target given the current fundamental and technical landscape. In this article, we will analyze the potential for a slightly bullish bias for USDJPY this week, supported by key market drivers and macroeconomic factors.
Fundamental Drivers Supporting a Bullish Bias:
1. Federal Reserve's Hawkish Stance on Monetary Policy:
The Federal Reserve’s hawkish tone in recent weeks, reinforced by the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, suggests that further interest rate hikes are on the table. This has led to a strengthening of the U.S. dollar against major currencies, including the Japanese yen. With inflationary pressures still evident in the U.S. economy, the market is pricing in another rate hike before the end of the year. Higher interest rates increase the yield on U.S. assets, making them more attractive to global investors, which directly supports the USDJPY.
2. Bank of Japan's Ultra-loose Monetary Policy:
In contrast, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) continues to maintain an ultra-loose monetary policy stance, keeping its interest rates in negative territory. BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has reiterated that the bank will remain accommodative until inflation sustainably reaches its 2% target, which still seems distant. This divergence between U.S. and Japanese monetary policies is a major driver of the USDJPY bullish momentum, and it is expected to continue fueling the pair’s rise toward the 150.000 level.
3. Rising U.S. Treasury Yields:
U.S. Treasury yields have been rising steadily, with the 10-year yield nearing the 4.5% mark, its highest level in years. This surge is indicative of market expectations for prolonged high interest rates in the U.S., which adds further upward pressure on the dollar. Historically, higher U.S. Treasury yields have a direct correlation with USDJPY strength as global investors seek higher returns on their investments.
4. Geopolitical Uncertainty:
Geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and the Middle East are contributing to safe-haven flows into the U.S. dollar, adding to its bullish momentum. While the yen is also considered a safe-haven currency, the growing demand for the dollar due to the U.S. economy’s relative strength and higher yields is tipping the balance in favor of USDJPY bulls.
5. Japanese Intervention Risks:
As the USDJPY approaches the 150.000 level, market participants are wary of potential intervention by Japanese authorities to stem yen depreciation. However, recent remarks from Japanese officials suggest that intervention is not imminent unless volatility becomes disorderly. Until intervention threats materialize, the path of least resistance for USDJPY appears to be upward.
Technical Analysis:
On the technical front, USDJPY has been trading in a well-defined uptrend, with higher highs and higher lows forming on the daily chart. The pair is currently testing resistance near the 149.50-149.80 zone, with 150.000 acting as the next psychological target. A sustained break above 150.000 could pave the way for further gains, with potential resistance around 151.50 and 152.00.
Momentum indicators, such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI), are approaching overbought territory, suggesting that while the bullish trend is strong, there may be some short-term consolidation before a decisive move beyond 150.000. Nonetheless, dips are likely to be viewed as buying opportunities, with strong support seen around 148.50.
Conclusion:
Given the current fundamental and technical landscape, USDJPY is poised to maintain a slightly bullish bias this week. The combination of a hawkish Federal Reserve, a dovish Bank of Japan, rising U.S. Treasury yields, and geopolitical uncertainty supports further upside for the pair. While intervention risks may temper gains, a move toward and possibly beyond the 150.000 level seems achievable in the near term.
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USDJPY September 2024 analysis
UsdJpy moving down on retracement.Looking for Impulse Down.
UsdJpy break out TL and will start to move down soon on retracement. Make sure you have your own rules on RR and follow them. This is just a trading idea to help you gain better knowledge. If you have any question ask me in comments.
Learn & Earn!
Wave Trader Pro
USD/JPY Short Setup - 1:4.8 RRI have entered a short on USD/JPY after price broke below a key ascending trendline on the 1H chart. Entered at 143.658 with a Stop Loss set at 144.520 (-89 pips risk).
Target Levels:
TP1: 142.189 (+148 pips) - Moving SL to break even once this is hit.
TP2: 141.319 (+235 pips)
TP3: 139.579 (+407 pips)
This setup offers a solid risk-to-reward ratio, with multiple profit targets for a gradual exit.
USDJPY weekly key reversal bar dictation for strength for 149.3016th september weekly bar is a key reversal made a new low, closed off the high, dictation for strength in usdjpy for coming days and weeks. first target: 147.15, second target is 149.30, need a lot of patient for this trade to make handsome profit. stop loss below the weekly key reversal bar low.
DeGRAM | USDJPY downturn in the channelUSDJPY is moving in an ascending channel between the trend lines.
The price has already reached the level of dynamic resistance, which has already acted as a pullback point.
Each touch of the resistance level was accompanied by the formation of bearish candlestick patterns on the chart.
We expect the correction to continue.
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USDJPY Weekly Outlook: Slightly Bullish Bias – September 23,2024USDJPY Weekly Outlook: Slightly Bullish Bias – September 23, 2024
The USDJPY pair has been a focal point for traders, and as we enter the week of September 23, 2024, a slightly bullish bias seems to be developing. Several key factors suggest that the US Dollar (USD) could continue to edge higher against the Japanese Yen (JPY), driven by fundamental and technical market conditions. This article provides an in-depth analysis, highlighting critical elements affecting USDJPY this week.
Key Drivers Behind the Bullish Bias for USDJPY
1. Federal Reserve's Hawkish Stance
The primary driver for the USD strength is the Federal Reserve’s recent monetary policy stance. With the central bank signaling that interest rates could remain elevated for an extended period, the US Dollar has found solid support. Traders are pricing in the possibility that the Fed may hike rates again in the near future, which tends to strengthen the USD. Higher interest rates in the U.S. make the dollar more attractive to investors compared to the low-yielding Japanese Yen, which still sits in a negative interest rate environment.
2. BOJ's Ultra-Dovish Policy
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to maintain its ultra-loose monetary policy, with no significant shifts expected in the near term. This dovish stance puts pressure on the Japanese Yen, especially as other central banks, including the Federal Reserve, are moving toward tighter monetary policies. The policy divergence between the Federal Reserve and the BOJ remains a significant factor driving USDJPY higher.
3. US Economic Strength
Recent U.S. economic data has shown resilience, with key indicators such as employment figures, retail sales, and inflation trends supporting the idea that the economy is in a solid position. This economic strength underpins the USD's upward trajectory. The robust economic outlook increases the likelihood of sustained monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve, further bolstering the USD.
4. Safe-Haven Flows Favoring USD Over JPY
While the Japanese Yen has traditionally been a safe-haven currency, the USD has increasingly taken on that role in times of global uncertainty. With ongoing geopolitical tensions and concerns about global economic growth, the USD has been more appealing to investors seeking safety, diminishing the Yen's haven status. This factor adds to the bullish momentum for USDJPY.
5. Technical Factors Supporting USDJPY
From a technical standpoint, USDJPY has been trading in a bullish channel, with higher highs and higher lows observed on the daily chart. Key support levels around 148.00 have held strong, providing a base for potential upside movement. On the upside, a break above the 149.50 resistance could trigger further gains, targeting the psychological level of 150.00.
Conclusion: USDJPY Slightly Bullish This Week
In conclusion, USDJPY is expected to exhibit a slightly bullish bias this week, primarily driven by the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance, the BOJ’s dovish approach, and the relative strength of the US economy. Safe-haven flows are also favoring the USD over the Yen, while technical factors suggest room for further upside.
As we navigate the markets this week, traders should closely monitor central bank commentary, economic data releases, and geopolitical developments, as these will likely shape USDJPY’s trajectory in the coming days.
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#USDJPY 1DAYUSD/JPY 1-Day Chart Analysis:
Buy Opportunity on Trendline Breakout
We are observing the USD/JPY currency pair on the 1-day chart, where a potential buy opportunity is emerging. The price is approaching a key trendline, which has acted as resistance in previous sessions. A breakout above this trendline could signal a shift in momentum and indicate a bullish trend.
Key Points:
1Trendline Resistance: The trendline has been established by connecting recent highs, and a successful breakout would suggest strong buying interest.
2.Confirmation Needed: Traders should look for confirmation, such as a close above the trendline with increased volume, to validate the breakout.
3.Target Levels: Once the breakout is confirmed, potential target levels could be set at recent swing highs or key Fibonacci retracement levels.
4.Risk Management: It’s important to set a stop-loss just below the breakout point to manage risk in case the market reverses.
Overall, if USD/JPY breaks above the trendline with strong momentum, it presents a favorable buy opportunity for traders looking to capitalize on potential upward movement.
“Can USD/JPY Surpass the 144.0 Level?”The Bank of Japan (BoJ) kept its policy interest rate unchanged, holding it steady at 0.25%. The bank noted that Japan's economic recovery is continuing, and inflationary pressures have eased due to a decline in import prices. According to data released today, Japan's Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August increased by 3% year-over-year, in line with expectations. As a result, the USD/JPY pair has gained momentum, rising from the 140.85 level.
From a technical perspective, if the 144.10 level is surpassed, the pair may test the 147.30 resistance first, followed by 149.55. On the downside, if it falls below the 140.85 support level, a drop toward 138.0 and then 135.15 could occur.
Weekly Round-up: USD/JPY & GBP/USD Market AnalysisHi Traders,
Here's a summary of the week so far for USD/JPY and GBP/USD.
This week has been packed with economic data releases. Earlier today, the Bank of Japan kept interest rates unchanged but expressed optimism about improvements in the broader Japanese economy.
The overall trend for USD/JPY remains bearish, and we anticipate this to persist into the coming week. As for GBP/USD, our short trade closed yesterday, and we are now expecting a continuation of the upward trend, breaking above the momentum high.
Have a wonderful weekend!
USDJPY Plus DXY and JXY Technical Analysis👀 👉 The USDJPY pair recently broke structure bullish, as seen on the 4H timeframe. In this video, we closely examine the DXY, JXY, and USDJPY, discussing the trend, market structure, and price action. We also explore a potential trade setup.
**Disclaimer:** Forex trading involves significant risk, and market conditions can change quickly. The information provided is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. 📉 ✅
USD/JPY analysis 2024/09/20
FX_IDC:USDJPY
Notice: The points are only valid from 2024/09/20 to 2024/10/05
What we have now?
1.The key support and resistances level:
152
148.2
144
142
139.5
What should we do?
1.Open the long position when the price fails to break through the lower support level
TP when the price is close to upper resistance level or TP 50% of your position first, the other 50% for a huge breakout.
SL when the price break through the lower support level
2.Open the short position when the price fails to break through the upper resistance level
TP when the price is close to lower support level or TP 50% of your position first, the other 50% for a huge breakout.
SL when the price break through the upper resistance level
Future Price movement
70% chance : The 139.5 price level is a really strong support, and I don't think it'll drop below that in the next month. It'll probably bounce between 144 and 139.5 for at least two weeks, building up enough momentum to push towards the resistance at 152
30% chance : Break below 139.5
Always put a Stop Loss for your positions!! Trade safe!
DeGRAM | USDJPY broke out of the descending channelUSDJPY is moving between trend lines above the descending channel.
The descending structure is still intact and has not been broken yet.
The price has already reached the lower trend line and 50% retracement level and formed a bullish takeover afterwards.
We expect growth after consolidation above the resistance level.
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DeGRAM | USDJPY has reached supportUSDJPY is moving in a descending channel between the trend lines.
The price has reached the support level and is now moving above it.
The chart has already reached the dynamic support, which has twice acted as a rebound point.
We expect the rebound to continue.
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USDJPY Technical Analysis and Trade Idea
👀👉 The USDJPY pair has been experiencing downward pressure recently. While there may be a potential selling opportunity, it would be prudent to wait for the FOMC meeting and Federal Reserve rate cut announcement later today before making any trading decisions.
If the data release outcome suggests a weakening US dollar, it could present a favorable opportunity to sell the USD/JPY pair. Conversely, if the data supports USD strength, it might be wise to abandon the trade idea altogether, as taking a counter-trend position could be risky.
Disclaimer: This analysis is based on current market conditions and available information. Forex trading carries significant risk, and market conditions can change rapidly. Always conduct your own research, consider your risk tolerance, and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any trading decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results. 📉✅
USDJPY - no sign of turning around at the moment💵USDJPY ANALYSIS 💸
- The Yen is still recovering very strongly since the USD/JPY pair fell to its lowest level in nearly 40 years at 141.95.
- The recovery is mainly supported by many interventions of the Japanese Government. Especially the support from the narrowing of the interest rate gap between Japan and the United States.
- The market is expecting the Fed to cut interest rates on Wednesday, while the BOJ will likely keep the current interest rate unchanged.
📌 TECHNICAL
- On the daily candlestick chart of USDJPY (D1), the downtrend from the price channel (a) continues and the pressure from Ema21 acts as the main resistance.
- USD/JPY has shown little reaction to the 0.382% Fibonacci extension level for now, which could be considered as the nearest technical support.
- Once USD/JPY is sold below 139.420, it will have a more bearish outlook towards 137.046 in the short term, which is the price point of the 0.50% Fibonacci extension level.
- As long as USD/JPY remains within the price channel (a) and below the 21-day EMA, the bearish bias will remain dominant, and the notable technical points for the bearish trend are listed below.
✔️ Support: 139.420 – 137.046
✔️ Resistance: 141.531 – 142.380
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