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Usdjpybearish

USDJPY → Huge Fall from 160.000 Heading for 148.000!?USD/JPY raced to test 160.000 last week and as expected, had a massive sell-off that ended Friday just below the 152.000 breakout area. Should we still be long? Or is it time to get short? How do we trade this? 🤔 The question in my last analysis was are we in for a hard sell-off? And should we buy these pullbacks? The conditions we see today change the perspective on buying the pullbacks. That wasn't just any sell-off, that was a hard rejection and reversal pattern. The sell-off from 160.200 dropped nearly 600 pips in 8 hours. This was followed by a meandering pullback toward the previous candle close high of around 158.400, which ended in another massive drop to 153.100. We then had a final bear push just below the breakout level of 152.000. We can read this a couple of ways, the first is that this is our re-test of the breakout area as I expected two analyses ago where I expected a confirmation of the 152.000 area as support before making it to 160.000: However, we never tested 152.000, we went to 160.000 in rapid fashion first. Such volatility is a sign of a reversal or at least, a push below the breakout level. We have a rough double-top from the initial sell-off, then its follow-up, followed by a third push to the breakout point. We're three pushes up after the 152.000 breakout, a massive sell signal and follow-through at the 1990 Key Resistance Level of 160.400, and we've closed below the 4HR 200EMA. A similar pattern played out in October 2022 with some slight differences as seen here: October 2022 Pattern: This was the first time we touched 152.000 and had a massive sell-off, followed by the same meandering pullback to the 4HR 30EMA, which acted as a rough head-and-shoulders reversal pattern. However, the close was below the 4HR 30EMA on the pullback and above the 200EMA on the first bounce. This time, the pullback went above the 4HR 30EMA to touch the channel top and then closed below the 4HR 200EMA. That last point is a key difference. Both instances are clear reversal signals with follow-through, but the 160.000 rejection was much stronger with a close below the 4HR 200EMA. If the price comes back up to test that 200EMA and gets rejected, that's our signal to short. I would then be targeting levels below 152.000, where the price previously met resistance, which will now likely act as support. Those levels are 150.800 and 148.800. It's very possible we fall much further. But I recommend waiting for that rejection from the 4HR 200EMA and then short 1:2 Risk/Reward to those two key levels. It would be reasonable to swing 25%-50% of your position to lower levels if the price action warrants it. If the price does not get rejected at the 4HR 200EMA, we need to wait and see if the bullish pressure resumes and adjust our bias accordingly. We are still in the channel, the confirmed break below is what we need to justify getting short. 💡 Trade Idea 💡 Short Entry: 153.550 🟥 Stop Loss: 155.800 ✅ Take Profit: 149.050 ⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:2 🔑 Key Takeaways 🔑 1. Three pushes up after the 152.000 breakout to the key level of 160.400 2. Strong rejection and follow-through back down to the 152.000 level 3. This strong volatility at the end of a trend is a sign of a reversal 4. Enter a 1:2 Risk/Reward trade down to 149.050. Potentially swing some of your position lower. 5. RSI at 35.00 and below the Moving Average, supports pullback before fall. 💰 Trading Tip 💰 The longer a trend continues after 3 legs, the probability of that trend continuing lessens. Because of this decreased probability, we ought to reduce our risk when entering trades and start looking for reversals. ⚠️ Risk Warning! ⚠️ Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. You are solely responsible for your trades. Trade at your own risk! Like 👍 and Follow to learn more about: 1. Reading Price Action 2. Chart Analysis 3. Trade Management 4. Trading Psychology
Short
by TraderEngineering
3
USDJPY Shorts from 145.500 back down towards 142.000This week's strategy involves following the ongoing bearish trend in USDJPY. I plan to initiate sell positions around the newly formed 4-hour supply zone. To execute this, I'll wait for a redistribution pattern to unfold and a clear CHOCH signal before considering a sell. It's important to note that there's a possibility of price pushing higher to test the 14-hour or daily supply above. Considering that price has already reacted to a supply zone, it wouldn't be surprising if it continues lower towards the 15-hour demand zone. In such a scenario, I'll be on the lookout for a buying opportunity, but I'll wait for the Asian low to be breached within that zone, potentially in the form of a spring, before considering a buy. Confluences for USDJPY Sells are as follows: - 4hr or 14hr supply zone that has caused a break of structure to the downside. - Price is completed a retracement so we can expect a wyckoff distribution to play out. - Lots of major trend lines still left below on the high time frame that needs to get swept. - Price has been in a very bearish trend ever since it failed to take the all time highs. - The dollar is also looking bearish so I can expect more downside for this pair too. P.S. As I currently hold a strong bearish stance on USDJPY, I won't be surprised if the demand zone fails due to significant liquidity below it. However, at the moment, my primary focus is on potential sell opportunities, considering that price has recently completed a retracement. My strategy aligns with the prevailing bearish trend.
by Hassan_fx
1
USDJPY Shorts from 142.500 down towards 140.000My bias for USDJPY is pro-trend, aiming for a bearish move within a nearby 10hr supply zone. Currently, I expect a bit more upside and a redistribution within my point of interest (POI). Upon confirmation of these factors and other confluences, I'm inclined to sell down towards the psychological level of 140.000. I am also anticipating a bullish reaction from the 7hr demand, which has caused a break of structure (BOS) to the upside, I recognise the importance of waiting for price to reach a discounted or premium area due to its current equilibrium state. However, considering the recent BOS to the downside, I anticipate a retracement to a supply zone for a potential sell-off. Confluences for USDJPY Sells are as follows: - price has broken structure to the downside and has left clean 10hr supply zone. - Price is currently in a retracement so we can expect a wyckoff distribution to play out. - Lots of major trendiness still left below on the high time frame that needs to get swept. - Price has been in a very bearish trend ever since it failed to take the all time highs. - The dollar is also looking bearish so I can expect more downside for this pair too. P.S. As this trade aligns with the prevailing trend, the selling proposition is currently highly favorable. While the Fibonacci range indicates that the 14hr supply is more likely, I foresee the possibility of the 10hr supply failing to react off the 14hr at a more premium level. HAPPY NEW YEARS TO ALL OF YOU AND HOPE THIS YEAR BRING EVERYONE PROFITABILITY AND CONSISTENCY. LETS CATCH THESE PIPS!
by Hassan_fx
1
USDJPY Shorts from 143.500 down towards 140.000Currently, with the recent reaction from the 22-hour demand zone, there's an expectation for a retracement towards a nearby supply to trade in line with the trend. At the current price, I'll wait for the small bullish reaction to lose steam in order for price to distribute. Once the Wyckoff distribution occurs on the lower time frame, accompanied by a CHOCH, I plan to initiate sells targeting the 140.00 mark, a zone associated with strong demand. However, I'm also mindful that the price might ascend further and react off a more premium supply above. Confluences for USDJPY Sells are as follows: - This bias aligns with the current bearish trend that has been perpetuated. - Lots of major trend lines, equal lows and asian lows below on the higher time frame. - There's a near by 14hr supply zone that looks promising and a better supply on the 10hr just above it. - For price to maintain its bearish trend it must react off a supply to trigger another sell off. - Bullish pressure is looking exhausted and we could see a wyckoff distribution play out soon. P.S. Regarding the overall market sentiment, it remains evidently bullish. However, with a strong emphasis on respecting the all-time high (ATH), I am steadfast in my belief that a long-term bearish trend is likely to emerge, given the significant liquidity present below. This is why selling positions are highly preferable and exhibit more favorable reactions. If you found this post insightful, drop a like & comment!
Short
by Hassan_fx
1
USDJPY Shorts from 145.200 down towards 140.000USDJPY continues to display a strong bearish outlook as the price has once again broken structure to the downside, affirming a long-term bearish trajectory. Regarding potential opportunities around the current price, my strategy involves awaiting a price retracement to the nearest supply, identified on the 15-hour time frame. This scenario represents the next potential phase for the price to initiate a downward movement. At present, I'm in a wait-and-see mode, anticipating the price to fill in the imbalance and undergo redistribution. This would serve as an indication that bullish pressure is diminishing, signaling the potential for another impulsive downward move. If the price proceeds further downward, I'm also prepared for a potential buying opportunity around the 7-hour demand zone near 140.000. Confluences for USDJPY Sells are as follows: - Price broke structure to the downside confirming a long term bearish trajectory. - Dollar (DXY) looks like its going to continue a bearish trend which acts as a positive correlation for this pair. - Lots of liquidity below that hasn't been taken on higher timeframes like trend lines etc. - In order for price to continue in its bearish course it must retrace back to a major supply so it can create another impulsive move to the downside. P.S. Being decidedly bearish on this pair, I am eager to observe the response from the 7-hour demand zone, situated at a significant psychological level of 140.000. Furthermore, the zone has initiated a Break of Structure (BOS) to the upside, providing an additional positive confluence that suggests the potential temporary holding of this zone. Feel free to share your thoughts on the USDJPY market in the comments below.
Short
by Hassan_fx
1
USDJPY Shorts from 149.500 down towards 147.500My bias for USDJPY is bearish due to the fact that price has reacted off the last supply from the whole chart, and has now given a CHOCH and BOS's on the higher time frame. Price has also took all the liquidity that was left above leaving price to now melt downwards and target all the asian lows, trend lines, equal lows, and imbalances that was left previously. Currently, price has reacted nicely off an 8hr supply which we can enter imminent sells to target the (8hr) demand below at 147.500. I am expecting the 8hr demand to cause a retracement back up but from there we can take short term buys up to a premium supply around 150.500. As Wyckoff distribution has been completed we can look for the asian high to get swept in order to enter our sell positions because a CHOCH has already been presented to us on the 15min. My confluences for USDJPY Shorts are as follows: - Price has taken all the magnets that lies above and reacted off the last supply of the chart. - Price has CHOCH'd and BOS on the higher time frame confirming a bearish trend. - Lots of liquidity to the downside in the form of trend line liquidity, asian lows, EQLs and IMB's - Wyckoff distribution has been completed on the Higher time frame and now melting. - A re accumulation has been presented inside our current 8hr supply in which we have got a clean reaction from. - Dollar (DXY) is also temporarily bearish for me so it matches with my sell bias for this market. P.S. even though we are bearish I would also be interested in buying from 147.500 up towards 150.500 or higher to then eventually sell again. For now, we will see if price reaches that demand below as short term buys will be interesting there. Remember being adaptive is very crucial and because I am a day trader, I can counter trend trade up to better POI's to then enter pro trend trades.
Short
by Hassan_fx
3
USDJPY → Falling to 1.46? Or Rocket to 1.52? Lets Answer That.USDJPY fell below the 30EMA to my previously predicted area of 147.100 then immediately bounced back to 150.000 only to stall and leave us wondering what the next move will be. How do we trade this? We're in a bull channel which should put us in a bias to long. But we have a double top reversal signal at a key level of resistance (the previous Weekly high of 152.000 staring us in the face. We need to see what happens here at the 30EMA. If we get a strong bear bar closing on or near its low, shorting to the bull channel bottom around 146.300 or even the previous high of 145.000 is reasonable. The protective stop should be just above the 30EMA. You can also wait for a long at the bull channel support or previous high support, looking for a bull channel signal bar and confirmation closing on or near its high. Protective stop just below those levels with a take profit at the 30EMA and then the previous high of 152.000. Key Takeaways 1. Bull Channel, Bias to Long. 2. Double Top Reversal Signal. Close the Gap to Bull Channel Support. 3. Fell below 30EMA, Gap to Bull Channel Support 4. Previous Channel High of 145.000 Final Target. 5. Wait for Bear Signal Bar for Confirmation to Short. 6. RSI at 47.00, below Moving Average. Supports Short. You are solely responsible for your trades, trade at your own risk! If you found this analysis helpful, click the Boost button and let us know what you think in the comment section below!
Short
by TraderEngineering
USDJPY Shorts to 146.800My bias for this pair is very much so bullish due to the fact that price has entered the last (8hr) supply zone of the chart. Not only has it swept so much liquidity, but the initial rejection ended up causing a change of character to the downside on the 4hr time frame. As we can clearly see wyckoff distribution play out, there have been nice POI's left for us to enter sell positions from, like the 15min unmitigated supply at the top or the 17hr supply zone just underneath. We will wait for the pullback to come back to these areas to re-distribute on the lower time frame in order for us to get the most premium price to sell at which will maximise our risk to reward ratio. Ideally we would also wait for the asian high to get swept first at 150.420 before looking at entries, as there will be no more reversal magnets against our trade. Our sells will then be in a very good position for price to just melt down. Scenario B is that USDJPY will end up making new highs and break the POI's marked out. This would be expected when the current pull back comes and fails all the supply zones at the top to take out the ATH's (All time highs of the market.) However, even then we will also expect a bearish trend to form once price decides to sweep ATH's as that is also a strong form of liquidity. My confluences for USDJPY shorts are as follows: - Price has tapped into the last 8hr supply zone of the market that also caused a change of character on the 4hr. - Liquidity has also been swept inside the zone from the upthrust distribution and has now left valid POI's - Once the asian high gets taken there will been reversal magnets against our sell bias. - Lots of liquidity to the downside to target as take profit targets i.e. Trendlines, equal lows, untouched asian lows and long wicks to fill. - There is also a 15hr demand zone at the bottom that price needs to eventually mitigate. P.S. There is also a 3hr supply POI underneath the asian high that it could react off but I would like to see a clear CHOCH and maybe even a break of structure to validate the hold of that supply. As we have identified both feasible scenarios, we can now prepare for the markets price action to play out and make our moves from there. But we must remain adaptive at all costs and know either could occur in this markets forecast.
Short
by Hassan_fx
1
"USDJPY: Watching 148.80 for Reversal"The USDJPY currency pair is currently on an upward trajectory, approaching the key resistance level at 148.80. It's worth noting that in October of the previous year, the price experienced a significant downturn from this same level. Given this historical context, there is a reasonable expectation that a similar price reversal may occur this time as well. Should the daily candle manage to close above the critical resistance point at 148.80, it could potentially signal a further bullish extension towards the next target at 150.10. However, our strategy entails a bearish outlook. We plan to initiate a sell position at 150.10, with a target set at 145.55. This target aligns with the trend line support, which suggests a potential bearish move in the market, mirroring the historical precedent of price declines from the 148.80 level. 🔥1st Sell Entry - 148.80 🔥2nd Sell Entry - 150.10 👇TP - 145.50 🔴SL - Join Our Channel
Short
by FKW-Millions
USDJPY M30: Bearish outlook seen, further downside below 131.20Prices are ranging between a key resistance zone at 131.20 and a key support zone at 130.50. A pullback to the resistance zone at 131.20 could present the opportunity to ride the retracement to the support zone at 130.50, which coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Prices are holding below the 20 EMA and Ichimoku cloud, and MACD is showing bearish momentum while ADX is above 25, supporting our bearish bias.
Short
by T3-Consultancy
1
Bearish Outlook on USDJPY: 16th November 2022On the daily time frame, prices are holding below a key resistance zone at 141.500 where we could see further downside in prices to the downside confirmation at 137.000, which coincides with the 1.414 Fibonacci extension level. A breakthrough of this zone could provide the bearish acceleration to the support target at 131.000 which coincides with the 100% Fibonacci retracement level. Prices are holding below the ichimoku cloud as well, supporting the bearish bias.
Short
by shermzT
1