USDJPY | Perspective for the new week | follow-up detailsMany are still expecting a Fed pause next month but the jobs market isn't cooperating as it record a 13th straight month of non-farm payrolls beating the consensus estimate. A crisis of confidence among regional and mid-sized U.S. banks, which first broke out in March, has also resurfaced, and adding to these concerns is the potential U.S. debt default, the first-ever if Republican lawmakers in Congress continue their political wrangling with the Biden administration instead of having the debt ceiling raised. In this video, we have taken the time to dissect the current USDJPy chart from a technical standpoint to decipher the likely potential of price movement in the coming week. Technically, a bullish momentum is foreseen but when and how it will happen is the bone of contention.
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Usdjpybreakout
USDJPY potential break of weekly/monthly Support/DemandHere we have some very simple USDJPY analysis.
I have a bearish bias on this pair however due to price sitting at around support currently I have provided a long scenario target.
As we can see from the analysis USDJPY has successfully broken below what was a Major Monthly Ascending Trendline. The short term trend is also bearish on this pair. Taking all this into consideration my bias is to the short side in the medium to long term, with targets sat at around the 110.00 level. Price has not sat at 110.00 for nearly 15 months. The 110.00 Level also lines up perfectly with a monthly Fib extension which adds additional confluence.
In an ideal world I would like to see a clean break and close at or below 115.50 and for price to then retrace back into 116.00 to 116.30 level before looking for bearish confirmation and initiating a short order.
Remember I take an Instituional Swing Investment approach so this scenario might take a few weeks to play out and may not be a suitable for day trading or scalping for that matter. But if it does play out as derscribed above then we could well see price drop a significant amount. These are the kind of trades that interest me. If it plays out as described it also means that this type of trade is based on sound money and risk management because the Risk Reward ratio will be excellent.
My only concern with this pair is that we have not had a retest of the monthly ascending trendline. However, as you all know well... Forex isn't quite so simple and the charts dont always give us what we want and can sometimes just continue dropping or rising at their own leisure. In all scenarios, I recommend remembering that the markets can continue to remain irrational longer than our accounts can stay afloat. So trade wisely and I wish you all a happy trading week ahead.
If anyone would like to comment or post their own view then please feel free to do so.
Many thanks and Best regards!
Barry The Forex Trader
#BTFXT