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USD/JPY Technical Analysis: Stable Ahead of US DataThe USD/JPY pair's stable performance is expected to remain until investors and markets identify and interact with the important events of this week, starting with the FOMC. The USD/JPY is stable in a range between the level of 113.27 and the level of 113.72 at the beginning of this week's trading, in the same performance as the last trading sessions. Commenting on the performance and outlook, Goldman Sachs currency strategist Zach Bundle said, “The recovery in risk assets and more stability in front interest rates in the US allowed the dollar to fall from its highs in late November. The Fed is likely to determine the direction of the currency in the near term,” the analyst added, “If the “dot graph” at this week’s FOMC meeting shows the average of two highs for 2022, we may see an extension of the recent weakness, while it is likely that A baseline of 3 or more hikes in 2022 causes a resurgence in the US dollar (markets are currently pricing in a 2.6 Fed rate hike next year)." The US central bank is widely expected to speed up the easing of its quantitative easing program this week so that it ends sooner than the June 2022 date envisaged and announced in November. That should create scope for a rate hike sooner than previously thought likely by the market and its updated dot chart on Wednesday for policy makers' expectations which will provide ample evidence of how soon that could happen. This is the main point of interest for the market after 10 voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee - a decisive majority - indicated in recent weeks that they might support a decision to end the $120 billion per month quantitative easing program sooner this week. On the other hand, it affects morale. Chinese leaders on Friday pledged tax cuts and support for entrepreneurs to shore up sluggish economic growth after a campaign to rein in soaring corporate debt that triggered bankruptcies and defaults among property developers. A statement issued after the annual planning meeting led by Chinese President Xi Jinping called for "maintaining stability," reflecting concern about rising risks after economic growth slumped to an unexpectedly low 4.9% over the previous year in the quarter ending in September. "Our country's economic development is facing triple pressures represented by contraction in demand, supply shocks and weak expectations," the statement added. The ruling Communist Party is trying to keep the world's second-largest economy on track while forcing real estate developers and other companies to cut debt, which it fears is dangerously high and threatens financial stability and long-term growth. China was the first major economy to recover from the coronavirus pandemic, but that recovery quickly stalled. The economy grew 7.9% year-over-year in the second quarter of 2021 but slackened after tighter restrictions imposed last year on borrowing by real estate developers caused a slump in construction and sales. The planning meeting, the Central Economic Work Conference, outlines the party's economic agenda for the coming year. Officials usually begin to announce the details at the ceremonial legislature's annual meeting in March. The leadership promised tax cuts and "enhanced support" for private enterprises that generate new wealth and jobs in China, but did not elaborate. She said Beijing would invest in infrastructure but gave no indication of large-scale spending to stimulate the economy. Investors are waiting to see what happens to Evergrande Group, a developer that financial analysts say is increasingly likely to default on its $310 billion in debt. Smaller developers have defaulted on millions of dollars in debt or went bankrupt. The government has tried to reassure the public and investors that the economy can be protected from the financial fallout of Evergrande. China's central bank governor, Yi Gang, said Thursday that financial markets can handle Evergrande, noting that Beijing has ruled out a bailout. Friday's statement also promised more antitrust and other enforcement which it said would boost market players' confidence. Technical Analysis How the USD/JPY closes for the year will depend on what will be issued by the US Federal Reserve this week. So far, the currency pair is in a neutral position with a bearish bias, and stability below the 113.00 support will increase the bears' control to move further downwards. According to the performance on the daily chart, the next bearish targets will be 112.50, 111.75 and 110.60. On the upside, and according to the performance over the same time period, the 114.20 resistance will be vital for the bulls to launch further and change the current situation. In addition to the expectations of raising interest rates, it is necessary to take into account risk appetite
by SmoothJB
USD/JPY Technical Analysis: Bearish Momentum RemainsThe outlook for the US dollar was boosted last Friday when official figures confirmed US inflation had risen to a new multi-decade high last month, which is likely to keep the Federal Reserve (Fed) on course to accelerate its monetary policy normalization. The price of the USD/JPY currency pair moved towards the level of 113.80 after the data and settled around the level of 113.46 as of this writing. The US dollar's exchange rates fluctuated briefly before the weekend as figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics revealed that a 0.8% US inflation increase in November lifted the annual pace of price growth in the US to 6.8% last month. Meanwhile, inflation rose from 4.6% to 4.9% for November, the highest level since the year ending June 1991, even after excluding changes in volatile food and energy prices from the figures after a 0.5% increase in November in core inflation. Gasoline, housing, food, used cars and trucks and new vehicles were among the biggest contributors to the price increases in November, all goods whose supplies were recently disrupted by efforts to contain the Corona virus, which has led to prices rising sharply over the past year. Catherine Judge, CIBC Capital Markets economist, says: “With inflation at a high pace, the Fed is expected to accelerate its quantitative easing schedule at the December meeting, to end in early spring, and to allow for a rate hike in the second quarter of 2022, when the winter wave of Covid is late for us.” Inflation has risen sharply around the world this year due to shortages of goods and labor as well as other factors, although price increases have been stronger in the United States where publicly funded financial support for households was much greater than elsewhere at the height of the pandemic. November was the second consecutive month that the headline CPI rose more than six percent, well above the Fed's average inflation target of 2 percent and likely to keep the bank on track to accelerate the normalization of its monetary policy settings. The strength and persistence of recent increases in inflation have led Fed policy makers to rethink earlier expectations that price pressures would quickly dissipate on their own, and they almost cut the bargain for a decision this week to speed up the process of winding down the bank's bond-buying program. Ten of the twelve FOMC voting members have publicly indicated over the past month that they might support a decision to scale back the Fed's monthly bond purchases at a faster pace than agreed in November. Many economists now expect the Fed to end its bond purchases in March instead of June 2022, which would provide room for the bank to start raising its key rate as soon as possible in the second quarter of next year if inflation pressures remain high enough in the interim. Technical Analysis How the USD/JPY will close out this year will depend on what will be issued by the US Federal Reserve this week. So far, the currency pair is in a neutral position with a bearish bias, and stability below the 113.00 support will increase the bears' control to move further downwards. According to the performance on the daily chart, the next bearish targets will be 112.50, 111.75 and 110.60. On the upside, and according to the performance over the same time period, the 114.20 resistance will be important for the bulls to launch further and change the current situation. In addition to the raising of interest rates, it is necessary to take into account the extent of risk appetite.
Short
by SmoothJB
USDJPY , We should wait until the price arrive in ...Hello everybody According to the chart you can see that after the trend was changed, the price dumped and now we need to correction to recovery the power and again ready to dump and re-test that area again or dump more . But in this analysis to should check the chart and that zone in lower time frame to take signal than take position and put stop loss and wait until the target reach . Another method to take in this position is put sell limit in the area and put stop loss and put target than set and forget and go , anything happen and after 2 3 days you can come back and see it If you have any question just ask us and send us messages in private Good Luck Abtin
Short
by Abtin00
USD/JPY Technical Analysis: Neutral with Bullish BiasSince the start of this week's trading, the USD/JPY has been moving within attempts to rebound upwards, reach the 113.78 resistance and settling around 113.50 as of this writing. This came after the announcement of growth figures for the Japanese economy, and no important US data. The US dollar is still supported by expectations that the US interest rate will be raised soon. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, in testimony to US lawmakers last week, said he no longer sees inflation as temporary, and the possibility of an accelerating "gradual taper" could be announced at the US Federal Reserve's December meeting. The US trade deficit narrowed to $67.1 billion in October, the lowest level in six months, after hitting a record high in September. A significant rebound in exports helped offset a much smaller increase in imports. In this regard, the US Commerce Department reported that the October deficit was 17.6% below its all-time high in September at $81.4 billion. It was the smallest monthly deficit since the $66.2 billion imbalance in April. Economists see the strong rebound in exports as evidence that global supply chains are beginning to disintegrate, and believe that smaller deficits this quarter could give a boost to overall US economic growth. There were gains in many export categories, indicating that the recovering global economy is beginning to boost demand for US products. Americans' demand for imports was racing ahead of export sales as the US economy recovered more quickly than other countries from the pandemic. In October, exports rose 8.1% to $223.6 billion while imports rose 0.9% to $290.7 billion. A deficit is the gap between what the United States exports to the rest of the world and the imports it buys from foreign countries. The politically sensitive trade deficit with China, the largest with any country, fell 14% in October to $31.4 billion. In the first 10 months of this year, the goods trade deficit with China was 13.7% higher than it was a year ago. America's total trade deficit is $705.2 billion so far this year, up 29.7% from the same period last year. Trade flows were sharply reduced last year as the COVID pandemic curtailed economic activity. Part of the October increase in exports reflected an increase in oil exports, reflecting the return to more normal operations at Gulf Coast refineries that had been closed by Hurricane Ida. Big gains in US auto exports and imports suggest that the global shortage of computer chips that has hampered auto production is beginning to recede, a trend that leaders in the auto industry have noted. Commenting on the results, Andrew Hunter, chief US economist at Capital Economics, predicted that the improved business picture would add about one percentage point to US economic growth in the current October-December quarter. It expects GDP to grow at an annual rate of 6.5% this quarter, a significant improvement from the modest 2.1% growth rate in the third quarter. Technical Analysis As I expected, the USD/JPY will continue to move in narrow ranges until the US inflation figures are announced. The psychological resistance is still 114.00 and is crucial for the bulls to continue moving upward. So far I still prefer to sell the currency pair from every bullish level. There is still a break in the trend on the daily chart and the neutrality of performance in the recent period is due to the markets’ loss of catalysts for a higher launch, as the world is still studying the effects of the new COVID variant and its resistance to approved vaccines and the absence of influential US data since the beginning of the week's trading. To the downside, breaking the 113.00 support will give the bears the motivation to move back, and accordingly, the next support levels may be 112.25, 111.40 and 110.80.
by SmoothJB
USDJPY: May Stay in Same RangeOn the daily chart, the USD/JPY is still stable to the downside and turned the general trend to the bottom, and stability around and below the 113.00 support level motivates the bears to move further downward. The closest support levels for the pair may currently be 112.55 and 111.80 And 110.90, which are sufficient levels to push the technical indicators towards strong oversold levels. On the upside, for the bulls need to break through the 114.55 resistance to get back on the upside trajectory. So far I still prefer selling USDJPY from every bullish level. The currency pair will be affected today by risk appetite, in addition to the announcement of the number of US weekly jobless claims. The USD/JPY's attempts to recover were still weak yesterday. It tried to rebound but did not get past the 113.63 level, and collapsed in early trading today to the support level at 112.62 and settles around the 113.05 level as of this writing. The US dollar has benefited a bit from its safe-haven appeal after the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention revealed the first confirmed case of Covid-19 caused by the new Omicron variant in the US. The CDC said the first confirmed case of Omicron was detected in an individual in California who returned from South Africa on November 22, 2021. The CDC said: “A person who is fully vaccinated and has mild symptoms improve, He is subject to self-quarantine and since then his test result has been positive.” And “all contacts were contacted and the results of the tests were negative.” A report released by the payroll processor ADP showed that US private sector employment increased slightly more than expected in November.The ADP said that employment in the private sector jumped by 534,000 jobs in November after rising by a revised 570 thousand jobs in October. Economists had expected US private sector employment to jump by 525,000 jobs, compared to an addition of 571,000 jobs originally reported for the previous month. For its part, Nella Richardson, chief economist at ADP, noted that "it is too early to tell whether the alternative Omicron can slow the job recovery in the coming months." The Institute for Supply Management released a separate report showing US manufacturing activity grew at a slightly faster rate in November. The ISM said that its manufacturing PMI rose to 61.1 in November from 60.8 in October, and according to the index's data, any reading above the 50 level indicates growth in the sector. Economists had expected the index to reach 61.0. On the other hand, according to the Beige Book, US economic activity grew at a modest to moderate pace during October and early November. The Beige Book, a collection of anecdotal evidence of economic conditions in each of the 12 federal districts, was released two weeks before the next monetary policy meeting. The Fed noted that many regions saw strong demand, but growth was constrained by supply chain disruptions and labor shortages. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell noted during congressional testimony that the emergence of the coronavirus Omicron variant could slow progress in the labor market and exacerbate supply chain disruptions. The Beige Book added that consumer spending increased slightly during this period, although lower inventories hampered sales of some items, particularly light vehicles.
Short
by SmoothJB
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