USDJPY: enough Monday Momentum?Potential bullish Judas Swing for another entry position.
1) liq grab of low
2) bullish CHoCH
3) identify established FVg
4) set entry to 50% of FVG/imbalance
5) wait for FVG to be fully tested and rejected (closed inside but wicked outside.
6) go to your lower tf (I pick 1m for entry)
7) wait for CHoCH on lower tf
8) find fvg created
9) wait for retest and rejection
10) enter
Usdjpydaily
Adding shorts to USDJPYMy view on USDJPY has not changed. I still see a bearish setup with a strong confirmation. Break of main trendline (daily), retest of it, i expect a break of the short term trendline (Hourly) and drop. As a support, there is a nice divergence on H4 timeframe. Target is around 146.000, invalidation is a break above recent highs
USDJPY: The foreign exchange market is quiet, the USD is stable Most Asian currencies stayed narrow on Wednesday, while the dollar steadied near a six-week high as markets awaited further signals on when the Federal Reserve might start cutting interest rates.
The Australian dollar fell 0.1%, even as January PMI data showed some improvement in manufacturing and services activity. The Aussie, often seen as an indicator of broader risk appetite for Asian markets, is also trading near a seven-week low.
USD steadies near 6-week high with econ. data, Fed meeting underway
The dollar index and dollar index futures both fell 0.1% in Asian trading after rising to their highest since early December in the previous session.
The greenback marked a strong start to 2024 as strong inflation and labor market data showed traders had largely tempered expectations for an early Fed rate cut.
This perception has been exacerbated by a series of hawkish comments from Fed officials over the past week.
The focus now turns to fourth-quarter gross domestic product data, due on Thursday, and PCE price index data - the Fed's preferred inflation gauge - due on Friday. Any sign of recovery in economic growth and inflation gives the Fed more incentive to keep interest rates higher for longer.
The readings also come just days before the Fed's first meeting of 2024, where the bank is widely expected to maintain interest rates at a 23-year high.
But the Fed is still expected to start cutting interest rates this year, which will keep traders watching for any such signals from the meeting.
USDJPY major pullback or reversal?4H TF
- trendline broken, waiting on retest
- FVG intersection with said trendline
- 50% fib level confluent with both of above
- previous breaker block confluent with all of above
- LL created
1H TF
- FVG overlapping 4H FVG
15M TF
- 5 touches just below target entry (LIQUIDITY SWEEP?)
- FVG inside of both HTF FVGS.
ALL of the above intersect within the same PRICE RANGE. Highly probable that a retest and a rejection of all will allow the BEARS to takeover and create a new LH - Entering the start of a potential downtrend if enough liquidity.
USDJPY: USD/JPY fluctuated in the 146-150 range, to a greater exMizuho Bank said Japan will tolerate the yen's decline in the near term, expecting it to rise as the bank tightens policy, possibly as early as the second quarter.
Additionally, Mizuho Bank said that while the Fed, ECB and BoE have not yet fully acknowledged that a rate cut is imminent, the Bank of Japan wants to avoid making a sudden change as it could could put disproportionate upward pressure on JPY. The reduction in yields and profits will work together to amplify forex moves (yen strength). Therefore, the BoJ will not rush to adjust policy that could be interpreted as tightening and concludes:
Some reduction in JPY now may be the necessary balance to avoid a sudden and unwanted spike in JPY later.
Expect 146-150 range in the coming months with heightened volatility.
USDJPY On trigger pointUSDJPY is following my ideas and is now entered to my triggered zone to start selling. My main target is 146.250. On H4 tf i can see a bearish divergence, that is now confirmed by another bearish divergence on smaller timeframes. I expect to see a beginning of the correction today, that should continue next week
USDJPY - Look for a long ✅Hello traders!
‼️ This is my perspective on USDJPY.
Technical analysis: Here we are in a bullish market structure from 4H timeframe perspective, so I am looking for longs. My point of interest for a long position is if price makes a retracement to fill the imbalance lower and then to reject from bullish order block + institutional big figure 145.000.
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USDJPY M15 / LONG TRADE OPPORTUNITY ✅ Hello Traders!
This is my idea related to USDJPY M15. I know that it's the end of the day, but I see a good opportunity to execute a long trade. I see the change of the structure, more exactly a bullish move.
A very good retracement from the resistance level and it looks very likely to go bullish.
Traders, if you liked my idea or if you have a different vision related to this trade, write in the comments. I will be glad to see your perspective.
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USDJPY: The Japanese Yen decreased because the market predicted
The Japanese yen is the worst among Asian currencies through 2024, extending its decline from the previous year as traders grow more confident that the Bank of Japan will delay policy changes were extremely moderate.
Reconstruction and stimulus measures following the devastating earthquake in central Japan are expected to offset any notion of BOJ policy tightening, at least in the near term.
Such a scenario points to increased pressure on the yen, especially from the wide gap between domestic and international lending rates. Japan's interest rates have remained extremely low for nearly eight years.
Weak data on inflation and weak wage growth also suggested less pressure on the BOJ to change its ultra-dovish course.
Broader Asian currencies were trending lower, as doubts about an early Fed rate cut kept traders largely biased against the dollar.
USD JPY SHORT#1
Risk 1%
RR of 1:3
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USDJPY - Bearish continuation ✅Hello traders!
‼️ This is my perspective on USDJPY.
Technical analysis: Here we are in a bearish market structure from 4H. timeframe perspective, so I am looking for short. I expect price to go a little bit higher to fulfill the imbalance and then to reject from trendline for another short opportunity.
Fundamental news: This week on Friday will be released NFP and Unemployment Rate in USA. News with important impact.
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USDJPY I Japanese Yen Will Keep On Rolling BUT Look for This!Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
** USDJPY Analysis - Listen to video!
We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met.
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USDJPY: USD/JPY hit a 5-month low due to Fed - BoJ policy divergJPY's rally benefited from hawkish comments from BoJ Governor Ueda when he emphasized policy divergence between the Fed and BoJ.
USDJPY is falling again after 2 consecutive sessions of increase. Technical indicators show that the downward momentum is still strong. The key resistance to watch is the 200-day MA at 142.75, with the next target at 143 and 144. On the contrary, if the price can be maintained below this mark, the downtrend will be consolidated. Sellers may aim for the 141.90/85 zone, followed by the multi-month bottom at 141 set last week, support at 140.45 and the 140 mark.
USDJPY: Asian session update: Stocks and USD fall as they begin USD weakened, JPY and antipodeans led the rise
Asian stocks fell, with futures on the S&P 500 index up slightly by 0.07%
US 10-year bond yield falls 1.7bp to 3.88%
Gold increased 0.5% to around $2063/oz
WTI oil increased 0.2% to above $73.70/barrel
Bitcoin accumulates around 43.5K
Investors continued to digest November PCE and December Consumer Sentiment data released on Friday, which showed that monthly inflation in the US fell for the first time in more than 3½ years, while sentiment Consumer sentiment remains strong, reflecting the economy's durability. A deceleration in core inflation and growing recession fears will prompt the Fed to shift from "committing to fighting inflation with higher interest rates for longer" to reassuring markets that it will "not hold rates." stayed high for too long".
In the FX market, major currencies increased slightly after the Christmas holiday as the USD weakened. USD/JPY is steady at 142.30. The prospect of the BoJ removing its ultra-loose policy has supported JPY's rise in recent weeks. Yesterday, BoJ Governor Ueda announced that the possibility of reaching the inflation target is "gradually increasing" and that they will consider adjusting policy if there is "enough" prospect of reaching the 2% target in a sustainable way.
USDJPY Shorts from 143.500 down towards 140.000Currently, with the recent reaction from the 22-hour demand zone, there's an expectation for a retracement towards a nearby supply to trade in line with the trend. At the current price, I'll wait for the small bullish reaction to lose steam in order for price to distribute.
Once the Wyckoff distribution occurs on the lower time frame, accompanied by a CHOCH, I plan to initiate sells targeting the 140.00 mark, a zone associated with strong demand. However, I'm also mindful that the price might ascend further and react off a more premium supply above.
Confluences for USDJPY Sells are as follows:
- This bias aligns with the current bearish trend that has been perpetuated.
- Lots of major trend lines, equal lows and asian lows below on the higher time frame.
- There's a near by 14hr supply zone that looks promising and a better supply on the 10hr just above it.
- For price to maintain its bearish trend it must react off a supply to trigger another sell off.
- Bullish pressure is looking exhausted and we could see a wyckoff distribution play out soon.
P.S. Regarding the overall market sentiment, it remains evidently bullish. However, with a strong emphasis on respecting the all-time high (ATH), I am steadfast in my belief that a long-term bearish trend is likely to emerge, given the significant liquidity present below. This is why selling positions are highly preferable and exhibit more favorable reactions.
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USDJPY: USDJPY fell below the 143 mark in anticipation of risingThe Japanese Cabinet Office has forecast that CPI consumer inflation will increase to 3%.
Early tomorrow morning, the market will receive CPI inflation data that has been higher than the BoJ's 2% target for more than a year, boosting expectations that the BoJ will pivot and support the rise of JPY.
USDJPY: Dollar fluctuates as views of interest rate cuts grow; TThe US dollar is experiencing volatility against most major currencies today, with market sentiment affected by predictions that the US Federal Reserve may start cutting interest rates. The Japanese yen remains an exception, maintaining its position against the dollar following the Bank of Japan's decision to continue its expansionary monetary policy.
Federal Reserve officials tried to manage market expectations after a Federal Open Market Committee meeting last week, which hinted at the possibility of interest rate cuts in 2024. This outlook has led to a surge in financial markets, with current forecasts suggesting a 67.5% chance of a rate cut at the Fed's March meeting, based on the CME FedWatch tool.
Senior financial markets analyst at Capital.com, Kyle Rodda, commented on the situation, saying that the Federal Reserve must now decide whether to match market expectations or counter them, potentially causing market instability.
Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic on Tuesday reiterated his forecast for two interest rate cuts in the second half of the year, but emphasized that immediate action was not necessary. At the same time, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin noted that the central bank's ability to lower interest rates will depend on the trajectory of the economy.
The dollar index, which compares the US dollar to a basket of other currencies, remained relatively unchanged at 102.20 after falling more than 0.3% earlier. Last week, the index hit a four-month low at 101.76. Rodda also mentioned that upcoming economic data will be important in determining the direction of the dollar, as it will indicate whether the expected interest rate cuts for next year are justified.
Investors are now awaiting the release of the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, which could shed light on whether inflation is slowing enough to justify easing. policy next year or not.
In Japan, the yen traded lower at 143.78 yen against the dollar, having weakened after comments from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, which did not suggest a change was imminent from negative interest rates. According to National Australia Bank senior foreign exchange strategist Rodrigo Catril, expectations are now set for a policy change no sooner than April.
USDJPY - Short active ✅Hello traders!
‼️ This is my perspective on USDJPY.
Technical analysis: Here we are in a bearish market structure from 4H timeframe perspective, so I am looking for short. I expect bearish price action from here as price almost filled the imbalance and reacted from institutional big figure 145.000.
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