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Usdjpyforecast

USD/JYP (US DOLLOR VS JAPANESE YEN) MAKING TRIANGLEUSD/JPY (WEEKLY) making a contracting triangle on a Primary degree B of Cycle degree 4th. We are currently on an E wave of an Intermediate degree of a triangle. we are most likely to come down for A of E of a triangle. We can see 3 waves down as an A-B-C pattern on the E wave of the triangle. Most probably we are just finished D of the triangle and we are likely to push down for E as my preferred count (projected by the black line) and if we have not finished D of the triangle so we can go to break recent high as an alternative count (projected by the red line) and after that, we will come down for triangle continuation. DISCLOSURE - Please be informed that the information I provide is not a trading recommendation or investment advice. All of my work is for educational purposes only. All labeling and wave count have been done by me manually and I will keep changing according to the LIVE MARKET PRICE ACTION. So don't bias, hope on my trade plans. Try to learn Elliott Wave or other strategies and make your own strategy. Following is not that much easy. I am not responsible for any losses if u took the trade according to my trade plans.
Long
by anantadhungana
USD/JPY Technical Analysis: Continued Weakness of the YenAs I mentioned before, stability around and above the 114.20 resistance will continue to support the bullish reversal. The technical indicators have some room before they reach overbought levels according to the performance on the daily chart. The closest targets for the bulls are currently 114.60, 115.20 and 116.00. On the other hand, a rebound to the 113.30 support level brings the bears back in control again. I still prefer selling the currency pair from every bullish level. The US dollar pairs will be affected by the announcement of the durable goods orders numbers, the personal consumption expenditures price index, the number of weekly jobless claims, new US home sales, and the average income and spending of the American citizen Due to the risk appetite currently in the markets, the Japanese yen lost many of its gains against the rest of the other major currencies. Yesterday, the price of the USD/JPY currency pair tested the resistance level of 114.36 and settled around the level of 114.20 at the time of writing. The pair is waiting for any new movements in narrow ranges in light of the approaching holidays, which means less liquidity. The Japanese yen was hit hard by the Japanese parliament's approval this week of a record additional budget of about 36 trillion yen ($317 billion) for the fiscal year through March to help families and businesses affected by the pandemic. The budget is largely earmarked for funding COVID-19 measures, including booster vaccines and oral medications. It also includes cash payments to families with children and a promotional campaign for the hard-hit tourism industry. For his part, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said that the supplementary budget aims to revive an economy that has not yet fully recovered from the epidemic and achieve stronger growth and a more equitable distribution of wealth under his "new capitalism" policy. Under Kishida, the government has tightened border controls to help avoid cases of the fast-spreading Omicron virus, after it managed to reduce infection levels sharply in the past few months. The budget includes 100,000 yen ($880) in payments to families with children 18 or younger and 2.5 million yen ($22,000) in support for businesses that have suffered major sales losses due to the pandemic. It will also pay to increase the salaries of nurses and other caregivers. It has allocated 617 billion yen ($5.4 billion) to promote semiconductor manufacturing within Japan as the country moves to improve its economic security and address shortages of computer chips essential for a wide range of products. The budget will also finance tourism promotion, sustainability and digitization. Deputy Prime Minister Seiji Kihara told reporters on Monday that the government plans to urgently submit the planned measures to the people to support "rebuilding the economy affected by the pandemic and resuming social and economic activity" after the widespread imposition of public health precautions to combat the coronavirus outbreak. .
Long
by SmoothJB
USD/JPY Technical Analysis: Stable Ahead of US DataThe USD/JPY pair's stable performance is expected to remain until investors and markets identify and interact with the important events of this week, starting with the FOMC. The USD/JPY is stable in a range between the level of 113.27 and the level of 113.72 at the beginning of this week's trading, in the same performance as the last trading sessions. Commenting on the performance and outlook, Goldman Sachs currency strategist Zach Bundle said, “The recovery in risk assets and more stability in front interest rates in the US allowed the dollar to fall from its highs in late November. The Fed is likely to determine the direction of the currency in the near term,” the analyst added, “If the “dot graph” at this week’s FOMC meeting shows the average of two highs for 2022, we may see an extension of the recent weakness, while it is likely that A baseline of 3 or more hikes in 2022 causes a resurgence in the US dollar (markets are currently pricing in a 2.6 Fed rate hike next year)." The US central bank is widely expected to speed up the easing of its quantitative easing program this week so that it ends sooner than the June 2022 date envisaged and announced in November. That should create scope for a rate hike sooner than previously thought likely by the market and its updated dot chart on Wednesday for policy makers' expectations which will provide ample evidence of how soon that could happen. This is the main point of interest for the market after 10 voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee - a decisive majority - indicated in recent weeks that they might support a decision to end the $120 billion per month quantitative easing program sooner this week. On the other hand, it affects morale. Chinese leaders on Friday pledged tax cuts and support for entrepreneurs to shore up sluggish economic growth after a campaign to rein in soaring corporate debt that triggered bankruptcies and defaults among property developers. A statement issued after the annual planning meeting led by Chinese President Xi Jinping called for "maintaining stability," reflecting concern about rising risks after economic growth slumped to an unexpectedly low 4.9% over the previous year in the quarter ending in September. "Our country's economic development is facing triple pressures represented by contraction in demand, supply shocks and weak expectations," the statement added. The ruling Communist Party is trying to keep the world's second-largest economy on track while forcing real estate developers and other companies to cut debt, which it fears is dangerously high and threatens financial stability and long-term growth. China was the first major economy to recover from the coronavirus pandemic, but that recovery quickly stalled. The economy grew 7.9% year-over-year in the second quarter of 2021 but slackened after tighter restrictions imposed last year on borrowing by real estate developers caused a slump in construction and sales. The planning meeting, the Central Economic Work Conference, outlines the party's economic agenda for the coming year. Officials usually begin to announce the details at the ceremonial legislature's annual meeting in March. The leadership promised tax cuts and "enhanced support" for private enterprises that generate new wealth and jobs in China, but did not elaborate. She said Beijing would invest in infrastructure but gave no indication of large-scale spending to stimulate the economy. Investors are waiting to see what happens to Evergrande Group, a developer that financial analysts say is increasingly likely to default on its $310 billion in debt. Smaller developers have defaulted on millions of dollars in debt or went bankrupt. The government has tried to reassure the public and investors that the economy can be protected from the financial fallout of Evergrande. China's central bank governor, Yi Gang, said Thursday that financial markets can handle Evergrande, noting that Beijing has ruled out a bailout. Friday's statement also promised more antitrust and other enforcement which it said would boost market players' confidence. Technical Analysis How the USD/JPY closes for the year will depend on what will be issued by the US Federal Reserve this week. So far, the currency pair is in a neutral position with a bearish bias, and stability below the 113.00 support will increase the bears' control to move further downwards. According to the performance on the daily chart, the next bearish targets will be 112.50, 111.75 and 110.60. On the upside, and according to the performance over the same time period, the 114.20 resistance will be vital for the bulls to launch further and change the current situation. In addition to the expectations of raising interest rates, it is necessary to take into account risk appetite
by SmoothJB
USD/JPY Technical Analysis: Bearish Momentum RemainsThe outlook for the US dollar was boosted last Friday when official figures confirmed US inflation had risen to a new multi-decade high last month, which is likely to keep the Federal Reserve (Fed) on course to accelerate its monetary policy normalization. The price of the USD/JPY currency pair moved towards the level of 113.80 after the data and settled around the level of 113.46 as of this writing. The US dollar's exchange rates fluctuated briefly before the weekend as figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics revealed that a 0.8% US inflation increase in November lifted the annual pace of price growth in the US to 6.8% last month. Meanwhile, inflation rose from 4.6% to 4.9% for November, the highest level since the year ending June 1991, even after excluding changes in volatile food and energy prices from the figures after a 0.5% increase in November in core inflation. Gasoline, housing, food, used cars and trucks and new vehicles were among the biggest contributors to the price increases in November, all goods whose supplies were recently disrupted by efforts to contain the Corona virus, which has led to prices rising sharply over the past year. Catherine Judge, CIBC Capital Markets economist, says: “With inflation at a high pace, the Fed is expected to accelerate its quantitative easing schedule at the December meeting, to end in early spring, and to allow for a rate hike in the second quarter of 2022, when the winter wave of Covid is late for us.” Inflation has risen sharply around the world this year due to shortages of goods and labor as well as other factors, although price increases have been stronger in the United States where publicly funded financial support for households was much greater than elsewhere at the height of the pandemic. November was the second consecutive month that the headline CPI rose more than six percent, well above the Fed's average inflation target of 2 percent and likely to keep the bank on track to accelerate the normalization of its monetary policy settings. The strength and persistence of recent increases in inflation have led Fed policy makers to rethink earlier expectations that price pressures would quickly dissipate on their own, and they almost cut the bargain for a decision this week to speed up the process of winding down the bank's bond-buying program. Ten of the twelve FOMC voting members have publicly indicated over the past month that they might support a decision to scale back the Fed's monthly bond purchases at a faster pace than agreed in November. Many economists now expect the Fed to end its bond purchases in March instead of June 2022, which would provide room for the bank to start raising its key rate as soon as possible in the second quarter of next year if inflation pressures remain high enough in the interim. Technical Analysis How the USD/JPY will close out this year will depend on what will be issued by the US Federal Reserve this week. So far, the currency pair is in a neutral position with a bearish bias, and stability below the 113.00 support will increase the bears' control to move further downwards. According to the performance on the daily chart, the next bearish targets will be 112.50, 111.75 and 110.60. On the upside, and according to the performance over the same time period, the 114.20 resistance will be important for the bulls to launch further and change the current situation. In addition to the raising of interest rates, it is necessary to take into account the extent of risk appetite.
Short
by SmoothJB
USDJPY , We should wait until the price arrive in ...Hello everybody According to the chart you can see that after the trend was changed, the price dumped and now we need to correction to recovery the power and again ready to dump and re-test that area again or dump more . But in this analysis to should check the chart and that zone in lower time frame to take signal than take position and put stop loss and wait until the target reach . Another method to take in this position is put sell limit in the area and put stop loss and put target than set and forget and go , anything happen and after 2 3 days you can come back and see it If you have any question just ask us and send us messages in private Good Luck Abtin
Short
by Abtin00
USD/JPY Technical Analysis: Neutral with Bullish BiasSince the start of this week's trading, the USD/JPY has been moving within attempts to rebound upwards, reach the 113.78 resistance and settling around 113.50 as of this writing. This came after the announcement of growth figures for the Japanese economy, and no important US data. The US dollar is still supported by expectations that the US interest rate will be raised soon. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, in testimony to US lawmakers last week, said he no longer sees inflation as temporary, and the possibility of an accelerating "gradual taper" could be announced at the US Federal Reserve's December meeting. The US trade deficit narrowed to $67.1 billion in October, the lowest level in six months, after hitting a record high in September. A significant rebound in exports helped offset a much smaller increase in imports. In this regard, the US Commerce Department reported that the October deficit was 17.6% below its all-time high in September at $81.4 billion. It was the smallest monthly deficit since the $66.2 billion imbalance in April. Economists see the strong rebound in exports as evidence that global supply chains are beginning to disintegrate, and believe that smaller deficits this quarter could give a boost to overall US economic growth. There were gains in many export categories, indicating that the recovering global economy is beginning to boost demand for US products. Americans' demand for imports was racing ahead of export sales as the US economy recovered more quickly than other countries from the pandemic. In October, exports rose 8.1% to $223.6 billion while imports rose 0.9% to $290.7 billion. A deficit is the gap between what the United States exports to the rest of the world and the imports it buys from foreign countries. The politically sensitive trade deficit with China, the largest with any country, fell 14% in October to $31.4 billion. In the first 10 months of this year, the goods trade deficit with China was 13.7% higher than it was a year ago. America's total trade deficit is $705.2 billion so far this year, up 29.7% from the same period last year. Trade flows were sharply reduced last year as the COVID pandemic curtailed economic activity. Part of the October increase in exports reflected an increase in oil exports, reflecting the return to more normal operations at Gulf Coast refineries that had been closed by Hurricane Ida. Big gains in US auto exports and imports suggest that the global shortage of computer chips that has hampered auto production is beginning to recede, a trend that leaders in the auto industry have noted. Commenting on the results, Andrew Hunter, chief US economist at Capital Economics, predicted that the improved business picture would add about one percentage point to US economic growth in the current October-December quarter. It expects GDP to grow at an annual rate of 6.5% this quarter, a significant improvement from the modest 2.1% growth rate in the third quarter. Technical Analysis As I expected, the USD/JPY will continue to move in narrow ranges until the US inflation figures are announced. The psychological resistance is still 114.00 and is crucial for the bulls to continue moving upward. So far I still prefer to sell the currency pair from every bullish level. There is still a break in the trend on the daily chart and the neutrality of performance in the recent period is due to the markets’ loss of catalysts for a higher launch, as the world is still studying the effects of the new COVID variant and its resistance to approved vaccines and the absence of influential US data since the beginning of the week's trading. To the downside, breaking the 113.00 support will give the bears the motivation to move back, and accordingly, the next support levels may be 112.25, 111.40 and 110.80.
by SmoothJB
USDJPY Analysis: What's Next After the Weak GDP Data from Japan What's up with USDJPY? Japan's economy contracted sharply in the 3d quarter. GDP declined by 0.8% on a Q/Q basis. This was a substantial decline from the 2d quarter’s growth of 0.5% and slightly lower than the median estimate of -0.8%. More fundamentals here: forexezy.com As the Japanese economy will probably record the slowest recovery among the G7 countries and with the US inflation numbers ahead, here is my technical analysis for the upcoming price action: The 4H chart shows that the USDJPY has some significant support at the 112.71 level. It has struggled to move below this point after bullish breakout in October. This price is notable since it is slightly below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. It also seems like it is the neckline of a potential head and shoulders pattern that is forming. Therefore, there is a likelihood that the pair will break out lower in the coming days. If this happens, the pair can test the 50% retracement level at 112.40.
by Forexezy_com
USDJPY | Perspective for the new weekAs the Greenback appear to begin on a positive note during the initial hours of the Tokyo session today, the US inflation concerns ahead of this week’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) is likely to be a major determinant on this pair. However, the strong bearish engulfing candle that thwarted buying momentum on the 29th of Nov 2021, sends a wave of caution as any selling opportunity can only be confirmed if we have either a rejection of the broken bullish trendline or an outright breakdown/retest of JY112.800 within the week. Tendency: Downtrend (Bearish) Structure: Breakdown | Supply & Demand | Trendline Observation: i. Since mid September 2021, the USD recorded 5.85% growth against the Yen to initiate an uptrend momentum. ii. But after testing JY115.500 on the 24th of November 2021, we witnessed a sharp decline which broke the Bullish Trendline to the downside insinuating a possible reversal or retracement of Impulse leg (check weekly chart). iii. During the course of last week trading session, I observed that the price broke and closed below the key level @ JY112.800 a couple of times and this gives me an impression that the sellers are gaining momentum at this juncture. iv. Patience is hereby required at this point as the early hours/days of the new week might see a price climb to test the new supply level identified on the chart around JY113.750/114.500 to incite further decline. v. In case the price does not climb and we witness a Breakdown of the Demand level which has held price "supported" since September 2021; then we can prepare a sell position with the key level @ JY112.800 as a yardstick... Trade consciously!😊 Trading plan: SELL confirmation with a minimum potential profit of 200 pips. Risk/Reward : 1:4 Potential Duration: 7 to 15days NB: This speculation might be considered to make individual decisions on the lower timeframe. Watch this space for updates as price action is been monitored. Risk Disclaimer: Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility. You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment. I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Short
by darcsherry
USDJPY: May Stay in Same RangeOn the daily chart, the USD/JPY is still stable to the downside and turned the general trend to the bottom, and stability around and below the 113.00 support level motivates the bears to move further downward. The closest support levels for the pair may currently be 112.55 and 111.80 And 110.90, which are sufficient levels to push the technical indicators towards strong oversold levels. On the upside, for the bulls need to break through the 114.55 resistance to get back on the upside trajectory. So far I still prefer selling USDJPY from every bullish level. The currency pair will be affected today by risk appetite, in addition to the announcement of the number of US weekly jobless claims. The USD/JPY's attempts to recover were still weak yesterday. It tried to rebound but did not get past the 113.63 level, and collapsed in early trading today to the support level at 112.62 and settles around the 113.05 level as of this writing. The US dollar has benefited a bit from its safe-haven appeal after the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention revealed the first confirmed case of Covid-19 caused by the new Omicron variant in the US. The CDC said the first confirmed case of Omicron was detected in an individual in California who returned from South Africa on November 22, 2021. The CDC said: “A person who is fully vaccinated and has mild symptoms improve, He is subject to self-quarantine and since then his test result has been positive.” And “all contacts were contacted and the results of the tests were negative.” A report released by the payroll processor ADP showed that US private sector employment increased slightly more than expected in November.The ADP said that employment in the private sector jumped by 534,000 jobs in November after rising by a revised 570 thousand jobs in October. Economists had expected US private sector employment to jump by 525,000 jobs, compared to an addition of 571,000 jobs originally reported for the previous month. For its part, Nella Richardson, chief economist at ADP, noted that "it is too early to tell whether the alternative Omicron can slow the job recovery in the coming months." The Institute for Supply Management released a separate report showing US manufacturing activity grew at a slightly faster rate in November. The ISM said that its manufacturing PMI rose to 61.1 in November from 60.8 in October, and according to the index's data, any reading above the 50 level indicates growth in the sector. Economists had expected the index to reach 61.0. On the other hand, according to the Beige Book, US economic activity grew at a modest to moderate pace during October and early November. The Beige Book, a collection of anecdotal evidence of economic conditions in each of the 12 federal districts, was released two weeks before the next monetary policy meeting. The Fed noted that many regions saw strong demand, but growth was constrained by supply chain disruptions and labor shortages. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell noted during congressional testimony that the emergence of the coronavirus Omicron variant could slow progress in the labor market and exacerbate supply chain disruptions. The Beige Book added that consumer spending increased slightly during this period, although lower inventories hampered sales of some items, particularly light vehicles.
Short
by SmoothJB
1
USD/JPY Technical Analysis: Reversing the General TrendOn the daily chart, the USD/JPY is stable in an important area. Breaking the 113.00 support supports a bearish reversal of the trend an further movement down. The closest support levels for the pair are currently 112.75, 111.80 and 110.90. On the upside, the bulls will break through the 114.60 resistance to return to the upside track. I still prefer selling the currency pair from every bullish level. The USD/JPY will be affected today by the announcement of the US consumer confidence reading and the testimony of US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. For the third day in a row, the USD/JPY is settling below the 113.00 support level after strong selloffs which the pair recently witnessed as it collapsed from its highest level in six years, when it tested the 115.52 resistance level last week. The outbreak of a new variant of the Corona virus, which contributed to the return of lockdowns, disturbed investors and markets, and it may also be with global central banks that are heading towards tightening their monetary policy. This morning, the currency pair attempted to correct upwards to reach the 113.88 resistance level, but it came back down, settling around the 113.10 support level at the time of writing the analysis. FX markets have generally calmed since the start of this week's trading, despite mixed omicron anxiety that dominated international headlines. Currently, investors seem to adopt a wait-and-see approach to investing. Market analysts are still forecasting fluctuations in the currencies' performance. “Until then, market volatility is likely to remain elevated,” said Rodrigo Cattrell, senior FX analyst at National Australia Bank, in a note to clients. “Markets have had to reassess the global growth outlook until we know more. ” Global financial markets will be watching US President Joe Biden's speech when he provides an update on America's response to the new variant. Although the World Health Organization (WHO) has urged everyone to avoid a sudden reaction, officials have reacted by closing borders and suspending travel to and from major destinations. Meanwhile, investors will be paying close attention to the speeches of several Fed leaders. Fed Chair Jerome Powell and outgoing Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida will speak and may offer some insights into how the omicron variable could affect the US central bank's monetary policy moving forward. The US dollar index (DXY), which measures the performance of the US currency against a basket of six major competing currencies, rose to 96.20, and the index suffered a weekly loss last week of 0.3%, but it is still up by 7% since the beginning of the year 2021 to date. The USDJPY rate may be more sensitive to the ebb and flow of risk appetite in global markets as well as any other insights into the Fed's policy outlook that all of the different Fed rate setters who are set to speak publicly throughout the week may offer. These various speeches will come after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's Monday and Tuesday appearance in Congress, and they will all be listened to closely by the market for clues about whether the new virus strain is something that can prevent the Fed from accelerating its tapering easing program. Quantitative bank begins to raise US interest rates. This comes after the minutes of the Federal Reserve's November meeting last week revealed that some of the bank's policy makers were considering calling for exactly this course of action, which severely affected the currency pair's price.
by SmoothJB