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Usdjpyforecast

Currency to watch this week: Japanese Yen The three big events of this week will likely be the BoJ, BoC, and ECB interest rate decisions. Even though we aren't expecting to see any rate cuts or rate rises from any bank, we are looking forward to the guidance that each will present alongside their respective decisions. The guidance might be enough to move the yen, Canadian dollar, or euro. The USD/JPY might be the one to watch the closest this week though. In particular, we like watching the tussle in the pair as it approaches 150.000 with bulls having to become a little sheepish as they anticipate BoJ intervention around this level. Is the threat of intervention sometimes more than enough to convince bulls not to take on any more long positions? Coincidently, Japan’s finance minister Shun'ichi Suzuki gave a verbal warning last Friday saying that the government was watching currency moves carefully. Working against the yen is that BoJ guidance at the time of its interest rate decision will likely be as dovish as always, considering last week's domestic inflation data (falling to 2.6% in December 2023 from 2.8% in the prior month). Which is why you might anticipate more upside in the USDJPY. Although anything is possible. The Bank of Japan has shocked markets before.
by BlackBull_Markets
USDJPY | Perspective for the new week | Follow-upExplore the unfolding story of USDJPY in our latest technical analysis! Japan's Current Account growth fell short of expectations, printing at ¥1,925.6 billion in November. Despite markets anticipating ¥2,385.1 billion, the actual figure raised concerns. With expectations of the BoJ maintaining its ultra-dovish stance, we analyze how this might impact the JPY's upside potential. The upcoming week brings Japan's Producer Price Index (PPI) figures for December, adding a layer of anticipation. Meanwhile, across the Pacific, the US Producer Price Index for final demand dipped 0.1% in the last month. This decline, coupled with service prices remaining unchanged, has heightened expectations of lower inflation in the future. Traders are now factoring in a 79% chance of a March rate cut, up from 73% on Thursday, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool. USDJPY Technical Analysis: As highlighted in the video, the recent upward pressure is beginning to ease, and the odds of USD pulling back further still exist. However, only persistent trading above 144.800 will validate an uptrend continuation. In this video, we conducted an in-depth technical analysis of the USDJPY chart, carefully examining the current bullish market structure. Our primary focus is within the key zone of 144.000/144.800, which will serve as our center of focus ahead of the upcoming week. The key level becomes an area of interest as continued buying pressure above this zone could incite a clear uptrend. The market's reaction around this area at the beginning of the new week will heavily influence the trajectory of price action in the days to come. Join me on this journey as we explore potential trading opportunities using trendlines, key levels, and chart patterns. Be sure to stay connected to my channel, follow my updates, and actively engage in the comment section as we navigate the dynamic USDJPY market together. Wishing you the best of luck as you chart your course in the USDJPY market this week. #USDJPY #technicalanalysis #tradingopportunities #inflation #monetarypolicy #Fed #interestrates #economicanalysis #Forextrading Disclaimer Notice: Please be aware that margin trading in the foreign exchange market, including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks, and other instruments, carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The content of this speculative material, including all data, is provided by me for educational purposes only and to assist in making independent investment decisions. All information presented here is for reference purposes only, and I do not assume any responsibility for its accuracy. It is important that you carefully evaluate your investment experience, financial situation, investment objectives, and risk tolerance level. Before making any investment, it is advisable to consult with your independent financial advisor to assess the suitability of your circumstances. Please note that I cannot guarantee the accuracy of the information provided, and I am not liable for any loss or damage that may directly or indirectly result from the content or the receipt of any instructions or notifications associated with it. Remember that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Keep this in mind while considering any investment opportunities.
by darcsherry
1
USDJPY I Potential short from resistance Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments! ** USDJPY Analysis - Listen to video! We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met. Please support this idea with a LIKE and COMMENT if you find it useful and Click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email in the future. Thanks for your continued support!
Short
by BKTradingAcademy
2
USD/JPY: Retests to kill momentum? USD/JPY: Retests to kill momentum? The USD/JPY experienced a notable surge from 144.50 as the week commenced, surpassing the 61.8% retracement level from the November-December downturn. It breached its 100-day MA, demonstrating a one-way move that resulted in a gain of 400 pips. Since the beginning of the year, the yen has incurred a loss exceeding 4%. Presently, the currency pair stands at a six-week high, propelled by a rally in the dollar following comments from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller. His remarks tempered expectations of a rate cut in March. The immediate obstacle to further upward movement lies in a retest of 149.700, followed by the crucial threshold of 150.00. Today's release of consumer inflation data from Japan is anticipated to provide additional indications of easing price pressures and will be crucial in determining how well the pair performs against the noted resistance levels that are in its sights, or how well the 100-day MA holds up as a level of support.
by BlackBull_Markets
USD/JPY: The Trend is still bullish in mid term....Hi everybody! On weekly Chart the trend is bullish , but although the pair formed a nice impulsive rally, at the moment, I still consider the main trend as a big corrective pattern (ABC Pattern). Even though the price rejected from 149.25 area (wave C), the wave was very steep and I don't rule out its transformation into an impulsive wave (12345). If this happens an ABCDE Pattern ( Flat Correction ) is possible. One aspect that should not be underestimated is the BoJ's changing of the guard. Kazuo Ueda is set to become the next governor of the Bank of Japan, succeeding current central bank chief Governor Haruhiko Kuroda. Both houses of Japan’s parliament now need to approve Ueda’s nomination. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s ruling coalition has a majority in both chambers. Parliamentary hearings are likely to take place on Feb. 24, Nikkei reported. Kishida recently emphasized the need for the next central bank governor to have “global communication skills” and be able to coordinate closely with global peers , Reuters reported, citing his comments in parliament... ...Current governor Kuroda was first appointed in March 2013. He has led the central bank’s ultra-dovish monetary policy , including maintaining a negative interest rate since 2016 – even as global peers have been hiking to tackle inflation . His current five-year term will end on April 8. Bank of America Global Research expects gradual policy normalization under the central bank’s new leadership instead of an abrupt change, according to the firm’s economists led by Izumi Devalier. The team said in a report that completely removing the central bank’s yield curve control – a policy of maintaining 10-year Japanese government bond yields within a 50-basis-point range of 0% – won’t happen any time soon. “We continue to think a change in the BoJ’s policy framework (including abandoning YCC and negative interest rates) will be delayed until mid-2024,” the economists said, adding that they expect to see “flexibility” in changing the current policy instead. The economists added that it’s “only a matter of time” before the Bank of Japan tweaks its yield curve control policy, and that they expect to see changes within the first half of 2023. Japan’s government also reportedly announced its nominees for other central bank roles including Shinichi Uchida, currently the central bank’s executive director, and Ryozo Himino, the former chief of Japan’s Financial Services Agency. “The government’s reported deputy governor picks are also well-suited to address the challenge of streamlining and winding down the BoJ’s expansive easing program, in our view,” the BofA economists said in their report ahead of the announcement. On trading side, technically speaking, if the trend is bullish , it should be correct to try to take Long position on any pullback or corrective structure above 132 area. Trade with care! 👍 ...and if you think that my analysis is useful, please..."Like, Share and Comment" ...thank you! 💖 Cheers! N.B.: Updates will follow below
Long
by TheAnonymousBanker
12
USDJPY → Bull Trend 1st Leg Complete! Long Again? Let's Answer.USD/JPY broke out of its descending wedge last week in a fantastic move toward the Resistance Zone (Now the Support Zone). We capitalized on that trade, you can find the details in the chart below. Are we ready for another long? USDJPY Trade - Last Week: How do we trade this? 🤔 We finished last week with a wild doji candle (one bar trading range) just above the 30EMA. That may have completed the first leg up in this new bull trend which has yet to be determined if it's a pullback on the macro bear trend or the start of another push up to higher highs. If it's a pullback in the bear trend, then we should expect no more than two legs to the upside before the price falls down again. If this is another run toward 152.000, then we should expect at least three legs to the upside. We do have justification to long on the Daily or 4HR. The Daily chart shows weakness above the 30EMA, the 4HR chart shows us stuck just below the 200EMA as shown in the following chart: USDJPY 4HR Chart: Both RSI's call for a pullback; the 4HR is high and below the Moving Average, and the Daily is around 50.00 but has a gap back down to the Moving Average. We need to wait for a pullback to happen which will likely bring the price toward the bottom of the Support Range around 143.800. At that price area, we need to look for a strong buy signal telling us we're going up for a second leg. Until then, it's best to wait on the sidelines for more price action and an optimal entry. 💡 Trade Idea 💡 Long Entry: 144.350 🟥 Stop Loss: 143.100 ✅ Take Profit: 146.850 ⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:2 🔑 Key Takeaways 🔑 1. Breakout from Descending Wedge 2. 1st Leg up Potentially Complete 3. Wait for Pullback to Bottom of Support Zone Area. 4. Look for Bull Confirmation near the 143.800 Area to Long. 5. RSI at 52.00 and above Moving Average. Bias to Long, but wait for Gap to Close. 💰 Trading Tip 💰 Traders often get trapped trying to trade the end of a second leg thinking a third leg is coming. Pullbacks often have two legs and when the third leg fails, it's in part because the traders stop loss is hit, causing the price to go the opposite direction of their trade and continuing the macro trend. ⚠️ Risk Warning! ⚠️ Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. You are solely responsible for your trades. Trade at your own risk! Like 👍 and comment if you found this analysis useful!
Long
by TraderEngineering
UsdJpy- Resumption of the up trend (Long term view)After experiencing a prolonged uptrend in 2023, during which it gained 3000 pips, the mid-November period marked the beginning of a correction for $FX:USDJPY. Over the next six weeks, the pair dropped by 1000 pips, reaching a significant psychological level of 140. The decline observed from December, however, formed a steep falling wedge, suggesting the potential for a reversal. This reversal indeed occurred as the new year commenced, with the pair breaking above the resistance of the pattern on January 2nd. Subsequent to this breakthrough, the market witnessed consecutive green days, and USDJPY successfully surpassed the crucial technical zone of 143.50-144. In the past week, the pair consolidated its recent gains and stabilized around the 145 region. The overall long-term trend remains bullish, and the recent low at 140 could signify the conclusion of the correction. In such a scenario, there is the potential for the pair to resume its upward movement, surpassing the recent high of 151.50, and achieving new highs in the coming months. My bullish sentiment persists as long as the pair remains above 143.
Long
by Mihai_Iacob
USDJPY M15 / LONG TRADE OPPORTUNITY ✅ Hello Traders! This is my idea related to USDJPY M15. I know that it's the end of the day, but I see a good opportunity to execute a long trade. I see the change of the structure, more exactly a bullish move. A very good retracement from the resistance level and it looks very likely to go bullish. Traders, if you liked my idea or if you have a different vision related to this trade, write in the comments. I will be glad to see your perspective. ____________________________________ Follow, like, and comment to see my content: www.tradingview.com
Long
by GoodTradeST
USDJPY: The Japanese Yen decreased because the market predicted The Japanese yen is the worst among Asian currencies through 2024, extending its decline from the previous year as traders grow more confident that the Bank of Japan will delay policy changes were extremely moderate. Reconstruction and stimulus measures following the devastating earthquake in central Japan are expected to offset any notion of BOJ policy tightening, at least in the near term. Such a scenario points to increased pressure on the yen, especially from the wide gap between domestic and international lending rates. Japan's interest rates have remained extremely low for nearly eight years. Weak data on inflation and weak wage growth also suggested less pressure on the BOJ to change its ultra-dovish course. Broader Asian currencies were trending lower, as doubts about an early Fed rate cut kept traders largely biased against the dollar.
Long
by Chart_MasterPro
Potential double top on USD/JPYThe weekly chart shows a bullish engulfing candle formed last week, which marks 140.25 as an important swing low. Whilst we remain unconvinced the pair will simply break above 152, it does show the potential to extend its countertrend bounce. However, with the pair stalling beneath last week’s high ahead of a key US inflation report, the potential for a pullback seems feasible. The 4-hour chart shows that a bearish divergence is forming with RSI (14) and the US2yr-JP2yr spread. Given last week’s high was just shy of 146 and the monthly S1 pivot, we’re on guard for a double top to send prices lower. Therefore, bears could fade into moves towards 146 with a stop above the monthly S1 pivot at 146.15. For a large bearish reaction over the next 24 hours, we’d likely need to see a softer set of numbers from the US inflation report relative to expectations.
Short
by CityIndex
Bold 370 Pips Buy idea in USD/JPY,are you with me ?Hello fellow traders and the entire Tradingview community. I have come up with a bold new idea on USDJPY which can give us more than 320 Pips profit if it goes according to plan. As you can see from the hourly chart, USD/JPY is currently back to the same level as it was last Thursday. So, based on a simple demand and supply strategy, we can expect UJ to go up from this level provided this zone is not broken. As an aggressive trader, I have already bought UJ@141.35 with a target of 145. I do not use a stop loss , but you can probably use an SL below the demand zone. Make sure you do not get stop-hunted.
Long
by YourLazyTrader
9
Long Position on USDJPY-4HHello Traders ! This is the USDJPY Technical Viewpoint in The Long Term . After these significant changes since the beginning of the year, the JPY has lost 25% versus the USD YTD. We anticipate that this bullish trend will resume for a few more months after the market breaks above the 144.80 Resistance level, as shown in the chart. Risk Warning: Trading Derivatives carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Derivatives may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Long
by aymanjemghili
1
USDJPY Shorts from 145.500 back down towards 142.000This week's strategy involves following the ongoing bearish trend in USDJPY. I plan to initiate sell positions around the newly formed 4-hour supply zone. To execute this, I'll wait for a redistribution pattern to unfold and a clear CHOCH signal before considering a sell. It's important to note that there's a possibility of price pushing higher to test the 14-hour or daily supply above. Considering that price has already reacted to a supply zone, it wouldn't be surprising if it continues lower towards the 15-hour demand zone. In such a scenario, I'll be on the lookout for a buying opportunity, but I'll wait for the Asian low to be breached within that zone, potentially in the form of a spring, before considering a buy. Confluences for USDJPY Sells are as follows: - 4hr or 14hr supply zone that has caused a break of structure to the downside. - Price is completed a retracement so we can expect a wyckoff distribution to play out. - Lots of major trend lines still left below on the high time frame that needs to get swept. - Price has been in a very bearish trend ever since it failed to take the all time highs. - The dollar is also looking bearish so I can expect more downside for this pair too. P.S. As I currently hold a strong bearish stance on USDJPY, I won't be surprised if the demand zone fails due to significant liquidity below it. However, at the moment, my primary focus is on potential sell opportunities, considering that price has recently completed a retracement. My strategy aligns with the prevailing bearish trend.
by Hassan_fx
1
USDJPY I Retest and Rejection to DownsideWelcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments! ** USDJPY Analysis - Listen to video! We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met. Please support this idea with a LIKE and COMMENT if you find it useful and Click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email in the future. Thanks for your continued support!
Short
by BKTradingAcademy
1
USDJPY → Descending Wedge Bullish Pattern! Should We Long Here?USDJPY is forming a descending wedge pattern signaling bullish sentiment and setting us up for a long position. Are we in a position to short now? How do we trade this? 🤔 We have the wicks! But we need confirmation. We've had three pushes down that include two large wicks and some nice bullish price action that followed. What we need now is a push and a close above the Daily 30EMA to confirm the move up. These conditions will give us enough probability to enter a long. I'm playing this trade conservatively because we do have a few items working against us: 1. Lack of a Higher High 2. The Former Support Zone could act as a resistance 3. The Daily 200EMA is right above that former Support Zone (now Resistance). That being said, we have a setup for a long scalp and if we size our position properly, this is a good opportunity to grab some market movement. 💡 Trade Idea 💡 Long Entry: 142.200 🟥 Stop Loss: 140.000 ✅ Take Profit: 144.400 ⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:1 🔑 Key Takeaways 🔑 1. Descending Wedge after Extensive Bear Run. Bias to Long. 2. Last three touches of Support had Strong Wicks. Bias to Long. 3. Look for break above 30EMA followed by Test of Support. 4. Enter 1:1 Long Scalp with Confirmation 5. RSI at 41.00 and above Moving Average. Bias to Long. 💰 Trading Tip 💰 Descending Wedges signal an increased probability of a trend reversal. Combined with strong buy bars (candles with large wicks on the bottom), creates conditions where a reversal trade is reasonable. ⚠️ Risk Warning! ⚠️ Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. You are solely responsible for your trades. Trade at your own risk! Like 👍 and comment if you found this analysis useful!
Long
by TraderEngineering
10