USDJPY H1 / Short Trade Entry Alert! ✅💲Hello Traders!
This is my idea related to USDJPY H1. I see a double reaction from the FVG H1 and I expect a continuation of a bearish market until the price of 149.500 where we have the OB level.
Traders, if you liked my idea or if you have a different vision related to this trade, write in the comments. I will be glad to see your perspective.
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USDJPY: The yen is at a 10-week low as the dollar rose for a fouThe Japanese yen remained near a 10-week low on Friday, with currency markets adjusting expectations around interest rate movements from global central banks. The yen traded slightly changed at 149.315 against the USD, after falling to 149.48 in the previous session, marking its lowest since November 27.
Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida's comments on Thursday suggested the central bank is unwilling to raise interest rates quickly even after potentially ending its negative interest rate policy, which some Market participants predict it could happen as soon as next month.
Despite careful monitoring of foreign exchange movements by Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki, who reiterated that monetary policy decisions belong to the central bank, the yen did not show a significant reaction.
The dollar index, a gauge against six major currencies, remained steady at 104.15. It rose 0.1% on Thursday after data showed resilience in the US labor market, dampening expectations of an imminent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. For the week, the dollar index was up 0.18%, boosted by strong monthly payrolls data last Friday and hawkish comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell in a "60" interview. minutes" aired on Sunday.
Upcoming US economic data includes the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report for January, which will be released on Tuesday.
Traders have significantly reduced the odds of a rate cut at the Fed's March policy meeting to just 16.5%, down sharply from 65.9% a month ago, according to CME Group's FedWatch Tool .
USDJPY: Fed Chairman Powell: An interest rate cut in March is unFed Chairman Powell participated withinside the American tv program "60 Minutes":
With the economic system strong, we sense the want to take into account the timing of hobby price cuts carefully
Confidence is rising, however we need to be even greater assured as we take the `very critical step' of beginning to reduce hobby rates
Achieving desirable development on inflation
An early selection can be made if exertions marketplace weak spot is mentioned or there's convincing proof that inflation is surely falling.
An hobby price reduce in March is not going
Inflation expectancies will hold to say no withinside the first 6 months of this yr because of essential impacts
Expect the 12-month inflation index to say no this yr
Most 19 policymakers see hobby price cuts this yr as appropriate
We do now no longer convey politics into our selection making
There isn't anyt any excessive opportunity of recession
Do now no longer take into account business actual property loans because the purpose of the disaster as withinside the past
China issues are not going to have an effect on the United States economic system, there'll likely be a few impacts, however they may now no longer be large
Geopolitical danger is taken into consideration the largest short-time period danger, however for different areas of the arena it's miles even more than the United States
USDJPY M30 / Bullish Move Forecast 💲Hello Traders!
This is my idea related to USDJPY M30. I expect a continuation of the bullish trend and I will look for a long entry on USDJPY. We have a very strong bullish move and I want to see a retracement at the FIB 50% level.
Traders, if you liked my idea or if you have a different vision related to this trade, write in the comments. I will be glad to see your perspective.
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USDJPY,🔴Daily perspective🔴(Read the caption)
Well, as you can see the price hit the important supply zone that is on the 0.705 Fibonacci level and had a bearish reaction.
Once the price grabbed the internal liquidity and entered the FVG.
Now we can expect the price to continue the bearish trend to fill the FVG and then hit the bullish order block that formed at the 50% Fibonacci level. (First scenario)
The second scenario is, that the price rises to fill the FVG that is formed above the price and then falls.
💡Wait for the update!
🗓️30/01/2024
🔎 DYOR
💌It is my honor to share your comments with me💌
USDJPY Trade of the monthWhen i say that patience is the key, this is exactly what i mean. USDJPY was a trade of patience. It try multiple times to be bullish, but i was pretty sure that 148.5 was the top. I was lucky to catch the exact top with my first trade, honestly i was expecting a little upside moves. The second trade was placed on retest, and both trade are now close to the target. I think we will see more sell pressure, and there are good chance to reach 145.75 first and 143.5 next.
USDJPY: The 10-year Japanese government bond yield could reach 2CEO of asset management fund Eurizon SLJ Capital, Mr. Stephen Jen, said that the USDJPY exchange rate could fall to 1 USD for 130 Yen by the end of this year, while the yield on Japanese government bonds with a term of 10 year is likely to increase by 1.5% - 2%. USDJPY traded around 148.10 and the 10-year bond yield was at 0.71% on January 29.
According to Stephen Jen, the father of the Laughing Dollar theory, Governor Kazuo Ueda's focus in the near future is to reset monetary policy "to allow the BoJ to act without bursting the government bond bubble (JGB )”.
USDJPY: The foreign exchange market is quiet, the USD is stable Most Asian currencies stayed narrow on Wednesday, while the dollar steadied near a six-week high as markets awaited further signals on when the Federal Reserve might start cutting interest rates.
The Australian dollar fell 0.1%, even as January PMI data showed some improvement in manufacturing and services activity. The Aussie, often seen as an indicator of broader risk appetite for Asian markets, is also trading near a seven-week low.
USD steadies near 6-week high with econ. data, Fed meeting underway
The dollar index and dollar index futures both fell 0.1% in Asian trading after rising to their highest since early December in the previous session.
The greenback marked a strong start to 2024 as strong inflation and labor market data showed traders had largely tempered expectations for an early Fed rate cut.
This perception has been exacerbated by a series of hawkish comments from Fed officials over the past week.
The focus now turns to fourth-quarter gross domestic product data, due on Thursday, and PCE price index data - the Fed's preferred inflation gauge - due on Friday. Any sign of recovery in economic growth and inflation gives the Fed more incentive to keep interest rates higher for longer.
The readings also come just days before the Fed's first meeting of 2024, where the bank is widely expected to maintain interest rates at a 23-year high.
But the Fed is still expected to start cutting interest rates this year, which will keep traders watching for any such signals from the meeting.
USDJPY major pullback or reversal?4H TF
- trendline broken, waiting on retest
- FVG intersection with said trendline
- 50% fib level confluent with both of above
- previous breaker block confluent with all of above
- LL created
1H TF
- FVG overlapping 4H FVG
15M TF
- 5 touches just below target entry (LIQUIDITY SWEEP?)
- FVG inside of both HTF FVGS.
ALL of the above intersect within the same PRICE RANGE. Highly probable that a retest and a rejection of all will allow the BEARS to takeover and create a new LH - Entering the start of a potential downtrend if enough liquidity.
GBPJPY and USDJPY Top-down analysis Hello traders, this is a complete multiple timeframe analysis of this pair. We see could find significant trading opportunities as per analysis upon price action confirmation we may take this trade. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
USDJPY and GBPJPY Top-down analysis Hello traders, this is a complete multiple timeframe analysis of this pair. We see could find significant trading opportunities as per analysis upon price action confirmation we may take this trade. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
USDJPY: USD/JPY fluctuated in the 146-150 range, to a greater exMizuho Bank said Japan will tolerate the yen's decline in the near term, expecting it to rise as the bank tightens policy, possibly as early as the second quarter.
Additionally, Mizuho Bank said that while the Fed, ECB and BoE have not yet fully acknowledged that a rate cut is imminent, the Bank of Japan wants to avoid making a sudden change as it could could put disproportionate upward pressure on JPY. The reduction in yields and profits will work together to amplify forex moves (yen strength). Therefore, the BoJ will not rush to adjust policy that could be interpreted as tightening and concludes:
Some reduction in JPY now may be the necessary balance to avoid a sudden and unwanted spike in JPY later.
Expect 146-150 range in the coming months with heightened volatility.
Currency to watch this week: Japanese Yen The three big events of this week will likely be the BoJ, BoC, and ECB interest rate decisions.
Even though we aren't expecting to see any rate cuts or rate rises from any bank, we are looking forward to the guidance that each will present alongside their respective decisions. The guidance might be enough to move the yen, Canadian dollar, or euro.
The USD/JPY might be the one to watch the closest this week though. In particular, we like watching the tussle in the pair as it approaches 150.000 with bulls having to become a little sheepish as they anticipate BoJ intervention around this level. Is the threat of intervention sometimes more than enough to convince bulls not to take on any more long positions?
Coincidently, Japan’s finance minister Shun'ichi Suzuki gave a verbal warning last Friday saying that the government was watching currency moves carefully.
Working against the yen is that BoJ guidance at the time of its interest rate decision will likely be as dovish as always, considering last week's domestic inflation data (falling to 2.6% in December 2023 from 2.8% in the prior month). Which is why you might anticipate more upside in the USDJPY. Although anything is possible. The Bank of Japan has shocked markets before.
USDJPY On trigger pointUSDJPY is following my ideas and is now entered to my triggered zone to start selling. My main target is 146.250. On H4 tf i can see a bearish divergence, that is now confirmed by another bearish divergence on smaller timeframes. I expect to see a beginning of the correction today, that should continue next week
USDJPY SELL | Setup Trading AnalysisHello Traders, here is the full analysis.
Short after the BULL RUN. GOOD LUCK! Great SELL opportunity USDJPY
I still did my best and this is the most likely count for me at the moment.
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USDJPY M15 / LONG TRADE OPPORTUNITY ✅ Hello Traders!
This is my idea related to USDJPY M15. I know that it's the end of the day, but I see a good opportunity to execute a long trade. I see the change of the structure, more exactly a bullish move.
A very good retracement from the resistance level and it looks very likely to go bullish.
Traders, if you liked my idea or if you have a different vision related to this trade, write in the comments. I will be glad to see your perspective.
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