USDJPY Daily Forecast: Slight Bearish Bias Amid Fundamental FactUSDJPY Daily Forecast: Slight Bearish Bias Amid Fundamental Factors (31/10/2024)
Introduction
In today's trading session on October 31, 2024, USDJPY appears to carry a slightly bearish bias due to various fundamental drivers impacting both the US Dollar (USD) and the Japanese Yen (JPY). This article provides a detailed analysis of USDJPY, focusing on the major economic and geopolitical factors contributing to the bearish outlook. By considering both macroeconomic trends and the latest technical indicators, traders can better navigate potential setups for the USDJPY pair.
Key Fundamental Drivers Impacting USDJPY Today
1. Federal Reserve’s Dovish Policy Outlook
- The Federal Reserve has recently hinted at maintaining a dovish stance, signaling a potential pause on interest rate hikes. This policy outlook is generally bearish for the USD, as lower interest rates reduce the Dollar’s appeal to investors seeking yield. As a result, the USD could experience downward pressure against the Japanese Yen, contributing to a slight bearish bias for USDJPY.
2. Bank of Japan's Commitment to Policy Adjustments
- The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has gradually shown signs of flexibility in its yield curve control policy, which could strengthen the Yen. Any indication of a potential shift away from ultra-loose monetary policy is generally supportive for JPY, as it attracts investors looking for stability in an uncertain global environment. This shift increases the possibility of a bearish trend in USDJPY.
3. US Treasury Yields and Safe-Haven Demand
- The recent volatility in US Treasury yields has led to fluctuating demand for USD-denominated assets. Lower yields often make the Dollar less attractive, especially in comparison to the Yen, which is considered a traditional safe haven. With a potential decline in yields, demand for USD could weaken, encouraging investors to turn toward JPY and reinforcing the slight bearish outlook for USDJPY.
4. Global Economic Uncertainty and Risk Sentiment
- The recent geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties have led to higher risk aversion in the markets. In times of heightened uncertainty, the Yen benefits as a safe-haven currency. This risk-off sentiment may draw investors to JPY, increasing its strength against USD and creating bearish pressure on the USDJPY pair.
5. Japanese Economic Data
- Stronger-than-expected Japanese economic data, including stable GDP growth and improved manufacturing output, have added positive momentum to the Yen. These indicators reflect Japan’s gradual recovery, making the Yen more attractive and adding pressure on USDJPY from the Japanese side.
Technical Analysis of USDJPY (31/10/2024)
From a technical perspective, USDJPY trades below its 50-day moving average, a signal commonly associated with bearish trends. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) also hovers near the 40 level, suggesting potential downside momentum. Key support levels around 147.50 and resistance near 150.00 should be monitored.
Key Support: 147.50
Key Resistance: 150.00
Conclusion: USDJPY Outlook for 31/10/2024
Given today’s fundamentals and technical conditions, USDJPY exhibits a slightly bearish bias. Factors such as the Federal Reserve’s dovish stance, the BOJ’s gradual policy adjustments, and risk aversion in global markets are all contributing to the current outlook. However, traders should remain attentive to any unexpected shifts in global economic data or central bank announcements.
For those watching the USDJPY today, focusing on these fundamental drivers and key support levels can provide valuable insights for trading the pair amid a slightly bearish sentiment.
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Usdjpyoutlook
UsdJpy- Don't p..s against the wind!If there has been a clear trend in the past two years, it has been the devaluation of the JPY. Despite some corrections, even very deep ones, the trend has always resumed, leading to new lows for the JPY.
One of these deeper corrections occurred at the end of last year, triggered, as always, by JPY repatriation.
However, as shown on the chart, the beginning of 2024 saw the resumption of the upward move. Only the BoJ intervention at the end of April and beginning of May at the 160 level stopped the ascent.
The chart shows that the pair has been acting very technically since then, with the drop stopping and reversing precisely at the horizontal support that was previously resistance.
Since then, USD/JPY has started making higher lows again and is now trading around 160.
Only time will tell if the BoJ will be determined to defend this level but, in my personal opinion, it is better to look to buy on dips (around 158) rather than sell at this resistance, hoping for another intervention.
USDJPY I Testing monthly lows as traders stay bearishWelcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
** USDJPY Analysis - Listen to video!
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USDJPY Analysis 27Aug2023I analyze USDJPY using the D1 time frame so that we can know in general terms the trends that are occurring and the possibilities that could occur in the future.
If you look at the series of waves that have occurred, currently there is a correction in wave B with the price forming waves a-b-c-d-e and heading to the QM area. by adding the RSI indicator we can see that the price has entered the saturation area and there is a divergence on the RSI. one of the signs that in the future there will be a reversal.
USDJPY Analysis 23July2023USDJPY's journey is in accordance with last week's analysis where the price was stuck in the support area and now it is corrected and enters the fibo 0.382 area. If you look at the close of this week and a fairly strong bullish candle is formed, and the price pattern is lined up on a curved line, it is likely that strong bullish will still dominate after this.
USDJPY Analysis 16July2023for two weeks experienced a deep bearish as far as 700pips, this pair is positively included in the bearish trend. at the end of the week there was a correction which if we pull the fibo retracement until the end of the week still reaches the level of 0.786, I estimate this correction can reach the level of 0.382.
USDJPY 29June2023if you look at the price movement in the past week it looks very slow but the price is still moving bullish, this looks like price compression. usually when something like this happens, in the near future there will be a fairly high price jump.
the initial target is still the same, namely in the fibo extension area of 1,618 and it could be that the price jumped high towards the SnD area above the fibo extension.
USDJPY: Economic volatility!During the Asian session on Wednesday, the USD/JPY pair faced selling pressure, causing a partial erosion of the previous day's gains that had exceeded the 144.00 level, reaching a new high since November 2022. The spot price is currently trading around 143.80, down nearly 0.20% for the day, although any significant downward adjustments still seem elusive.
Japanese officials continue to issue warnings against the recent weakness of the Japanese Yen (JPY), which is considered a key factor driving some long-term relaxation around the USD/JPY pair. In fact, Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki stated on Tuesday that they will closely monitor the forex market with a sense of urgency and will react accordingly if currency movements become excessive. This warning was reiterated by top Japanese currency diplomat Masato Kanda earlier this Wednesday.
USDJPY 23June2023if you look at the elliot notation and fibo extension placement, then wave 3 is right at 1.618, which means wave 3 is already 1.6x longer than wave 1.
I want to predict where the USDJPY price moves using the fibo extension, and it could be that the price goes to the fibo extension of 1.618 as well. if you look at the trendline, there is a possibility that the price will respond positively to the trendline, which also meets the fibo extension area.
I think this notation is quite correct, because wave 3 is not the shortest wave. as evidenced by the price at 1,618, and wave 5 could be a bullish continuation, this type of bullish can run for quite a long time. if you want to go short, it's better to wait for a fairly positive bearish confirmation.
USDJPY Swing IdeaDont try to predict the market. Rather, prepare. Create potential scenarios or outcomes and how you will react to the market in those different instances. This will hep control your fear and uncertainty thus, giving you confidence in your trades. I cant give out exactly how I enter trades but I would advise you to have a minimum of three confluences convincing you to open positions.
*Disclaimer*
This is not financial advise. Fore is a risky business. Trade at your own risk. Always exercise proper risk management and have the patience to see your trades play out.
My previous setups and analysis speak for themselves with regards to my growth and precision. Send me a message for more info.
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USDJPY | Perspective for the new weekThe price moved 40pips in our direction since my last publication (see link below for reference purposes) before finding Lower Lows to project a certain level of weakness in the GReenback. With the latest development in price action, I am keeping my expectations for further strength in the Japanese yen high in the coming week(s).
Tendency: Downtrend ( Bearish )
Structure: Double Top (Reversal Pattern) | Supply & Demand
Observation: i. DT (Reversal pattern): The appearance of a Bearish pattern that forms after the price reaches a culmination @ Y104.200/104.400 area two consecutive times with a moderate decline between the two highs points at the risk of further decline in price.
ii. The recent Lower Lows explains the inability of buyers to push the price beyond Y104.400 last week hereby negating my previous broadcast (see link below).
iii. Y103.900 level appears to be our New Supply level in the coming week(s) as price keep finding Lower Lows.
iv. To be more cautious could welcome the idea of waiting for a significant Breakdown of Neckline @ Y104.500 before joining the decline.
Trading plan: SELL confirmation with a minimum potential profit of 150 pips.
Risk/Reward : 1:5
Potential Duration: 4 to 10 days
NB: This speculation can be considered to make decisions on lower timeframes.
Watch this space for updates as price action is been monitored.
Risk Disclaimer:
Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including foreign exchange trading, CFDs, etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility.
You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment.
I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Long USDJPYUSDJPY: 4-hour cycle is bearish against 12/15/2016 (118.66) while 1-hour cycle remains bullish against 3/26/2018 low (104.56). Near-term correction against 5/30 cycle is proposed complete at 110.57 low, while dips remain above there and more importantly above 5/30 low (108.06) pair is expected to resume the upside. We don’t like selling the pair and prefer more upside as far as a pivot at 108.06 low stays intact.
Buy @ 111.25/111.10
Target : 112.00
Stop loss : 110.96
gud luck !
USDJPY - Daily UpdateRecent price action: Bearish
Pattern: Break of trend support
Long-term momentum: *Bearish
Short-term momentum: Bearish
Bias: Long
Action: Do not trade until price identifies further momentum. Could see further movement to the downside, or price may reverse at its current level. Everything depends on where the daily candle closes.
Comments: News of a trade war killed this pair. Next 7-10 days should be interesting. A complete shift in momentum would be warranted once price breaks below daily support. Could also be forming a head and shoulders pattern.
Daily Outlook of USD/JPYUSD/JPY the pair is overall still under pressure with Japanese Yen outperforming against its major counterparts, but recent price action highlights the risk for a larger rebound in the exchange rate as the pair fails to test the 2018-low (108.28).Fresh comments from Fed officials have done little to alter the near-term outlook for USD/JPY as Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan wishes to normalize monetary policy ‘in a patient and balanced manner,’ while Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic sees ‘a slow gradual pace of raising interest rates’ as the central bank looks for signs of stronger inflation. As technically the pair trading in range bound with the support 109.00 and resistance on 110.10 , that breaking the mentioned support will push the price to resume its bearish track that its next target located at 107.28, while breaching the resistance represents the key to start recovery attempts that target 111.00 followed by 111.88 levels initially. We can see one more leg down.