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USDJPY Looking BearishIf you anticipate a bearish trend in USDJPY and decide to sell, it's crucial to ensure that your decision is in line with your overall trading strategy. Evaluate the risk-reward ratios carefully and establish suitable stop-loss levels to mitigate potential losses. When considering increasing your position size, exercise caution to effectively manage potential risks. Stay well-informed about market developments and be prepared to adapt your trading strategy as necessary in response to changing conditions. It's essential to remain vigilant and proactive in monitoring the market to make informed decisions and protect your investments.
Short
by HUMCRYPTOCLUB
USDJPY Shorts from 145.200 down towards 140.000USDJPY continues to display a strong bearish outlook as the price has once again broken structure to the downside, affirming a long-term bearish trajectory. Regarding potential opportunities around the current price, my strategy involves awaiting a price retracement to the nearest supply, identified on the 15-hour time frame. This scenario represents the next potential phase for the price to initiate a downward movement. At present, I'm in a wait-and-see mode, anticipating the price to fill in the imbalance and undergo redistribution. This would serve as an indication that bullish pressure is diminishing, signaling the potential for another impulsive downward move. If the price proceeds further downward, I'm also prepared for a potential buying opportunity around the 7-hour demand zone near 140.000. Confluences for USDJPY Sells are as follows: - Price broke structure to the downside confirming a long term bearish trajectory. - Dollar (DXY) looks like its going to continue a bearish trend which acts as a positive correlation for this pair. - Lots of liquidity below that hasn't been taken on higher timeframes like trend lines etc. - In order for price to continue in its bearish course it must retrace back to a major supply so it can create another impulsive move to the downside. P.S. Being decidedly bearish on this pair, I am eager to observe the response from the 7-hour demand zone, situated at a significant psychological level of 140.000. Furthermore, the zone has initiated a Break of Structure (BOS) to the upside, providing an additional positive confluence that suggests the potential temporary holding of this zone. Feel free to share your thoughts on the USDJPY market in the comments below.
Short
by Hassan_fx
1
USDJPY Shorts from 147.000 down to 140.000My breakdown for USDJPY this week involves sustaining its temporary bearish trend. Currently, the price has shown a bullish reaction at our identified Point of Interest (POI), resulting in a pullback to tap into a Daily supply zone above. Following this, our strategy involves anticipating a redistribution on lower time frames to facilitate selling opportunities, targeting the equal lows. Considering the impact of NFP Friday on our demand, we await the formation of a correction to prolong the downward trend. In case the price opts for breaching equal lows first, our plan involves waiting for entry at the 7-hour demand zone, presenting an opportunity to buy at a more favorable price. Confluences for USDJPY Sells are as follows: - Price retraced from a 2-day demand and now slowly approaching a daily level of supply zone. - Supply Zone is on the daily time frame that has also caused a Break of structure to the downside. - Lots of liquidity to the downside in the form of equal lows, and major trendlines. - Price needs to fill the imbalance as well which has been left from the supply zone. - The dollar is also expected to be bearish so this pair is also projected to move in a similar way. P.S. Since the price on the higher time frame couldn't surpass the all-time highs and experienced a significant sell-off, my expectation is that the price may continue its decline to target substantial liquidity below. Consequently, I am inclined to seek pro-trend trading opportunities to prolong this downward movement, aiming for the 140.000 mark.
Short
by Hassan_fx
1
USDJPY Longs from 145.000 up to 148.300This week, the current position of USDJPY appears favorable, positioned near two promising Points of Interest (POIs). We are inclined towards buying opportunities as the price has recently responded to a supply zone, and we anticipate a slowdown and accumulation. Upon the completion of Wyckoff accumulation within our designated zone, we will seek buy positions for a short-term trade, aiming to reach the nearest significant supply. This counter-trend trade will serve as a retracement, acknowledging the temporary bearish trend. Confluences for USDJPY Longs are as follows: - To sustain its bearish trend, the price must respond to a demand level, prompting a retracement. - The price is nearing a crucial demand level on the 13-hour chart that has broken the structure to the upside. - There are remaining equal highs and imbalances above, which needs to get mitigated. The Dollar Index (DXY) is poised for an upward retracement, aligning with this bias. - The overall market trend on higher time frames, such as the monthly chart, remains generally bullish. - Price has taken some significant liquidity like asian lows so price might be due for a correction. P.S. Upon the price reaching our 4-hour supply zone, we will patiently await a form of redistribution to align ourselves with the bearish trend. Currently, our focus is on the anticipation of a slowdown and pullback, which we expect to occur in response to the 13-hour demand.
Long
by Hassan_fx
1
USDJPY → Falling to 1.46? Or Rocket to 1.52? Lets Answer That.USDJPY fell below the 30EMA to my previously predicted area of 147.100 then immediately bounced back to 150.000 only to stall and leave us wondering what the next move will be. How do we trade this? We're in a bull channel which should put us in a bias to long. But we have a double top reversal signal at a key level of resistance (the previous Weekly high of 152.000 staring us in the face. We need to see what happens here at the 30EMA. If we get a strong bear bar closing on or near its low, shorting to the bull channel bottom around 146.300 or even the previous high of 145.000 is reasonable. The protective stop should be just above the 30EMA. You can also wait for a long at the bull channel support or previous high support, looking for a bull channel signal bar and confirmation closing on or near its high. Protective stop just below those levels with a take profit at the 30EMA and then the previous high of 152.000. Key Takeaways 1. Bull Channel, Bias to Long. 2. Double Top Reversal Signal. Close the Gap to Bull Channel Support. 3. Fell below 30EMA, Gap to Bull Channel Support 4. Previous Channel High of 145.000 Final Target. 5. Wait for Bear Signal Bar for Confirmation to Short. 6. RSI at 47.00, below Moving Average. Supports Short. You are solely responsible for your trades, trade at your own risk! If you found this analysis helpful, click the Boost button and let us know what you think in the comment section below!
Short
by TraderEngineering
PIMCO Is Buying Yen to Brace for Imminent BOJ Monetary Policy ShPIMCO, one of the world's leading investment management firms, has taken a significant position in buying yen, indicating their preparedness for an imminent tightening of the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) monetary policy. The BOJ has long been known for its accommodative stance, but recent economic indicators and signals from policymakers suggest a potential shift towards a more hawkish approach. PIMCO's move to buy the yen serves as a clear indication that they anticipate the BOJ to take actions that could strengthen the Japanese currency. Given PIMCO's reputation and expertise in navigating global markets, their decision to buy yen should not be taken lightly. It is crucial for us to consider the potential implications of this move and the impact it may have on the USDJPY currency pair. Given these developments, I strongly encourage you to consider a short position on USDJPY. While this decision ultimately rests in your hands, weighing the potential risks and rewards is important. As PIMCO's move suggests, a tighter BOJ monetary policy could lead to yen appreciation, thereby weakening the US dollar against the Japanese yen. Timing is of the essence, and it is essential to act swiftly in the face of this potential shift in the market dynamics. I recommend conducting thorough research, analyzing market trends, and consulting with your trusted advisors before making any investment decisions. As always, it is essential to remain vigilant and adaptable in these uncertain times. The global financial landscape is constantly evolving, and it is our responsibility as traders to stay informed and make informed decisions. If you have any questions or require further assistance, please do not hesitate to reach out. Together, we can navigate these challenging market conditions and seize the opportunities they present. Wishing you success in your trading endeavors.
Short
by bryandowningqln
Bearish Outlook [USD/JPY] Unveiling Double Top PatternThe USD/JPY currency pair is currently presenting a compelling technical setup on the daily timeframe, marked by a double top pattern. This pattern is characterized by two distinct peaks in bullish momentum, both displaying notable similarities in terms of pips gained. The initial bullish move saw an approximate rise of 300 pips, followed by a second surge of around 270 pips. Divergence Analysis: Adding a layer of complexity to this analysis is the examination of the Dollar Index (DXY), where a potential divergence is observed when comparing the tops of the bullish momentums. This divergence in the DXY could provide additional confirmation for a reversal in the USD/JPY pair. Key Institutional Level: The institutional level of 149.000 emerges as a critical point in this analysis. If the price breaks below this level, a scenario unfolds where a retest of the 149.500 area becomes likely. This retest could serve as a key turning point, signifying a potential shift in market sentiment and the beginning of a downward trend. 4-Hour EMA200 as a Confirmatory Signal: Zooming in on the 4-hour timeframe, the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) with a period of 200 is notably positioned above the price chart. This configuration often acts as a technical signal, indicating a potential reversal in the prevailing trend. In this case, the EMA200 above the price chart adds weight to the bearish outlook for USD/JPY. Timing Entry on Lower Timeframes: For traders looking to capitalize on this potential bearish move, attention to lower timeframes such as 1-hour or 30-minute charts becomes crucial. The ideal entry point, in this analysis, is anticipated in the vicinity of the 149.500 area. Monitoring these lower timeframes will allow for a more precise timing of the entry as the price approaches the identified level. Conclusion: In conclusion, the technical analysis of USD/JPY reveals a confluence of signals pointing towards a bearish trend. The double top pattern, coupled with similarities in bullish momentums, a potential divergence in the DXY, and the significance of the 149.000 institutional level, all contribute to a comprehensive bearish argument. Traders are advised to stay vigilant, especially on lower timeframes, for a confirmed entry opportunity around the 149.500 area, with the 4-hour EMA200 serving as an additional confirmation signal for the anticipated reversal.
Short
by e11p
USDJPY Take off??USDJPY, the double bottom pattern, might indicate a reversal of the previous downward trend. Traders often use the distance between the lowest low of the pattern and the resistance line to estimate a potential price target. Based on this pattern, and major direction of trend, a projected target of 151 might be feasible. However, it's essential to apply technical analysis and consider other indicators to confirm the pattern and potential price target before making trading decisions.
Long
by ForexWizard01
Boy that was a week!What a week that was! The dance around 150 certainly didn't disappoint. After the break and failure the week prior which continued on Monday, I thought that was it, that price gave it a good shot but ultimately failed, and would perhaps settle below. To nobodies surprise then when the BoJ held rates at -0.10% that we made almost a straight line move back above the once solid wall. So severe was the buying, I wouldn't have blamed anybody buying dips on Wednesday. The top was just over 151.700, and despite a small bounce on Thursday lunch, we spent the rest of the week grinding back towards 150. I don't think the Fed decision can really be to blame, it seemed almost certain we'd get a pause, in fact the market mostly agreed in the minutes after the release with a very muted reaction. Today's jobs numbers was a different story, seeing an 80 pip decline. The past 3 days have almost all but wiped out the BoJ fuelled push giving us a messy looking Daily chart which is no longer respecting the uptrend nor 150 in any meaningful capacity. Heading into next week i'll be watching to see where price settles. Give everybody the weekend to digest what happened and follow the price action Mon/Tue and let that inform an entry. Hope you all had a great trading week, and I'll see you in a couple days.
by RuckSack
JPY plummeted with bad newsThe Bank of Japan adjusted monetary policy, the Yen suddenly plummeted According to results from the Bank of Japan's two-day meeting, the bank's Policy Committee allowed 10-year bond yields to exceed 1%, considering this level as an upper threshold instead of a ceiling. hard and remove the commitment to protect this ceiling by buying bonds with unlimited volume. Short-term interest rates are set at -0.1%, while 10-year bond yields are at around 0% under yield curve control, as is the current policy. The above decision shows that rising global bond yields and persistently high inflation are making it more difficult for the Bank of Japan to maintain its yield curve control policy.
Long
by D-Venn
1
USDJPY Shorts to 146.800My bias for this pair is very much so bullish due to the fact that price has entered the last (8hr) supply zone of the chart. Not only has it swept so much liquidity, but the initial rejection ended up causing a change of character to the downside on the 4hr time frame. As we can clearly see wyckoff distribution play out, there have been nice POI's left for us to enter sell positions from, like the 15min unmitigated supply at the top or the 17hr supply zone just underneath. We will wait for the pullback to come back to these areas to re-distribute on the lower time frame in order for us to get the most premium price to sell at which will maximise our risk to reward ratio. Ideally we would also wait for the asian high to get swept first at 150.420 before looking at entries, as there will be no more reversal magnets against our trade. Our sells will then be in a very good position for price to just melt down. Scenario B is that USDJPY will end up making new highs and break the POI's marked out. This would be expected when the current pull back comes and fails all the supply zones at the top to take out the ATH's (All time highs of the market.) However, even then we will also expect a bearish trend to form once price decides to sweep ATH's as that is also a strong form of liquidity. My confluences for USDJPY shorts are as follows: - Price has tapped into the last 8hr supply zone of the market that also caused a change of character on the 4hr. - Liquidity has also been swept inside the zone from the upthrust distribution and has now left valid POI's - Once the asian high gets taken there will been reversal magnets against our sell bias. - Lots of liquidity to the downside to target as take profit targets i.e. Trendlines, equal lows, untouched asian lows and long wicks to fill. - There is also a 15hr demand zone at the bottom that price needs to eventually mitigate. P.S. There is also a 3hr supply POI underneath the asian high that it could react off but I would like to see a clear CHOCH and maybe even a break of structure to validate the hold of that supply. As we have identified both feasible scenarios, we can now prepare for the markets price action to play out and make our moves from there. But we must remain adaptive at all costs and know either could occur in this markets forecast.
Short
by Hassan_fx
1