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Usdjpyshort

USDJPY: Bearish Break in FocusHello Traders, Below is my analysis of USDJPY currency pair from H1 perspective. Trend & Sentiment USDJPY is in a strong downtrend, forming lower highs and lows. The recent break below 153.819 confirms bearish momentum, with sellers firmly in control. Key Levels Resistance: 153.962 (Minor), 154.653 (Major) Support: 153.276 Possible Movement Bearish Continuation: Likely toward 152.466 (target) as long as the price stays below 154.653. Retracement Risk: Minor resistance at 153.962 may cap any short-term bounces. Reversal Signal: A break above 154.653 could shift momentum to bullish. Conclusion The outlook remains bearish with a focus on 152.466, while resistance at 154.653 defines the trend's invalidation point. Do let me have your thoughts. Cheers and happy trading!
Short
by Samuel124
1
USDJPY. The Japanese Yen (JPY) extends its steady intraday descent against its American counterpart, pushing the USD/JPY pair to a fresh weekly top, closer to mid-155.00s heading into the European session on Wednesday. This comes on the back of the previous day's turnaround and supports prospects for a further JPY depreciation on the back of the uncertainty over the timing of another interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BoJ).Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda earlier this week warned against keeping borrowing costs too low and signaled another interest rate increase, was vague on the timing and offered no hints about a hike in December.Meanwhile, rebounding US Treasury bond yields revive the US Dollar (USD) and further contribute to driving flows away from the lower-yielding JPY. Apart from this, a generally positive risk tone seems to undermine the safe-haven JPY and suggests that the path of least resistance for the USD/JPY pair is to the upside. That said, intervention fears could limit JPY losses ahead of speeches from influential FOCM members.
Short
by KingForex078
USDJPY: Anticipating a Bearish Move After Key Resistance TestUSDJPY is shaping up for a potential short setup, but patience is key as we wait for price to hit a critical resistance zone. Let’s break it down: The Setup Price is currently on a bullish push, targeting the highlighted zone at 154.332. This resistance level is a key area where sellers could regain control. Once price enters this zone, I’ll be watching closely for signs of exhaustion or reversal to enter short. The Plan 1️⃣ Entry Zone: I’m looking to go short from the 154.332 area, anticipating that the bullish momentum will lose steam here. 2️⃣ Stop Loss: My stop loss is placed at 155.397, safely above the resistance to protect against invalidation. 3️⃣ Take Profit: My primary target is the 152.242 support level, offering a solid risk-to-reward ratio. Why This Makes Sense This setup combines structure and momentum. The resistance at 154.332 aligns with previous price reactions, making it a strong area to expect sellers to step in. By positioning in this zone, I’m aiming to catch the reversal early without waiting for traditional confirmation. Mindset Tip: "It’s not about chasing trades; it’s about letting the market come to you. Know your levels, define your risk, and trust your process."
Short
by CurlyTrader_xo
USD/JPY Analysis: Fundamental and Technical Outlook FX:USDJPY The recent price action in USD/JPY, characterized by a significant break through the upper pitchfork boundary with substantial momentum and volume, suggests an important moment for the currency pair. This technical development aligns with several fundamental factors influencing both the U.S. dollar and the Japanese yen. Technical Analysis: Breakout Confirmation: The breach of the upper pitchfork boundary indicates strong bullish momentum. However, to validate this move, it's essential to observe whether the price can sustain above this level or if it will retest and potentially fall back into the previous channel. Key Support and Resistance Levels: Support: The 150 level serves as a critical support. A decline below this threshold could signal a return to the long-term consolidation range between 80 and 150, which persisted for 27 years prior to 2022. Resistance: If the price reclaims the upper channel, we may see the continuation of the uptrend with huge momentum. Fundamental Analysis: Bank of Japan Hawkish Stance: The BOJ has recently adopted a more hawkish tone, hinting at potential policy tightening. Governor Kazuo Ueda has indicated progress toward sustained wage-driven inflation, suggesting that interest rate hikes could be on the horizon. Japanese Intervention: Japan’s Finance Minister has expressed concerns over excessive yen depreciation, hinting at possible intervention if the yen weakens too much. This stance aims to prevent the yen from falling to levels that could harm the economy by increasing import costs. Federal Reserve's (Fed) Dovish Shift: In contrast, the U.S. Federal Reserve appears to be concerned with the current economical development, especially about the unemployment level, with discussions around more potential rate cuts emerging. This dovish outlook is influenced by concerns over rising U.S. debt levels and a slowing economy. U.S. Debt: The U.S. is grappling with escalating debt, with the debt-to-GDP ratio nearing 100%. This situation is reminiscent of the economic conditions preceding the DotCom Bubble from 2000, raising concerns about potential economic instability. Not mentioning that the US credit card debt is record high. More to read about this: nypost.com www.wsj.com www.marketwatch.com www.cnbc.com Outlook: The convergence of these technical and fundamental factors suggests that USD/JPY may not revisit recent highs in the near term. Instead, the pair could stabilize within the 140-150 range as the market seeks equilibrium amid contrasting monetary policies and economic conditions in the U.S. and Japan. Risk Management: Given the inherent volatility and unpredictability of forex markets, it's crucial to implement robust risk management strategies. Market dynamics can shift rapidly, and while current analyses provide a framework, they are not guarantees of future performance. Always conduct thorough research and remain adaptable to changing market conditions. Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always perform your own analysis before making trading decisions.
by akvil3
Fundamental Market Analysis for November 19, 2024 USDJPYThe Japanese yen (JPY) rose against its US counterpart during Tuesday's Asian session, although it lacked bullish confidence amid uncertainty over the timing of the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) next interest rate hike. In addition to this, risk-on sentiment reflected in the overall positive tone in the equity markets may be contributing to the safe-haven yen's decline. That said, geopolitical risks and lower US Treasury yields could prevent a significant downside for the low-yielding yen. In addition, speculation that Japanese authorities may intervene to support the national currency may deter bears from aggressively betting on the yen. The focus will now shift to Japan's consumer inflation data and global PMIs due out later this week. Japan's Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa said Tuesday that “it is crucial to raise wages for all generations with an economic package.” He also noted that he is “aiming for the cabinet to approve the economic package soon.” At the time of writing the analysis, the USD/JPY pair is consolidating on the latest round of declines just above the 154.10 level, having lost 0.36% on the day. Trade recommendation: Trade mainly with Sell orders from the current price level.
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Sell USD/JPY Bearish FlagThe USD/JPY pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Bearish Flag pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Hours. Key Points: Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around the current price of 154.42, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum. Target Levels: 1st Support – 153.18 2nd Support – 152.55 Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING Thank you.
Short
by KABHI_FOREX_TRADING
6
USD/ JPY ! 11/14 ! JPY value will increaseUSDJPY trend forecast November 14, 2024 The Japanese Yen (JPY) remains under selling pressure during the Asian session on Thursday, helping USD/JPY reach the 156.00 level for the first time since July 23, supported by a strong US Dollar (USD). Market sentiment suggests Japan’s political climate may hinder the Bank of Japan (BoJ) from further tightening its policy, which weakens the JPY. Additionally, worries about potential trade tariffs from US President-elect Donald Trump add further pressure on the Yen. The dollar is benefiting from the new president trump FOMO, but it is cooling down soon. The Japanese yen also has new moves with the new prime minister, helping the value of the Japanese yen increase further. /// SELL USD/JPY : zone 156.100 - 156.400 SL: 156.700 TP: 40 - 100 - 200 pips (154.400) Safe and profitable trading
Short
by Moon-ForexAcademy
5
USDJPY PANIC CYCLEUSDJPY is currently in the last year of the five-year cycle, repeated throughout this market's entire life cycle. The five-year cycle starts with a 4-year bull market and a 1-year panic correction. Should the 161.951 current top hold we would expect price to accumulate around the 151 price zone preparing for a quick decline toward the 125.8 zone for a total price of -360 pts. We expect Price to find support in August 2025. Considering both price and time our expected directional vector for the Five-year cycle will be 1695 units. The directional Price-Time Vector for the Five-year cycles has been in a range from 1659-1716 units. With the bull phase within a range of 1385-1406 units. A fractal nature has been observed in the 1903-1908 DJI market. The 1907 (rich man's) panic. Trade safe
Short
by WU_WEI-CAPITAL
6
USDJPY BUY | Idea Trading AnalysisUSDJPY is moving UP. The chart broke through the dynamic resistance, which now acts as support. We expect a decline in the channel after testing the current level. Hello Traders, here is the full analysis. I think we can soon see more fall from this range! GOOD LUCK! Great BUY opportunity USDJPY I still did my best and this is the most likely count for me at the moment. ------------------- Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad
Long
by TheGrove
9
USDJPY: Ready for another 1500 pip move? Presidential election in the US, which was one of the most important political events this year, moved the stock market to significant highs, historically speaking. The new rally could weaken the dollar. On the Japanese side of things, the new bullish move might be starting soon. Now that we got the retracement back to our weekly area of interest, its time to start looking for short entries. Our area of interest consists of Fibonacci and VWAP levels. This analysis is taught and provided by Fractals Trading. Trade safely and expect the unexpected, Mei
Short
by martinmei
USDJPY Is a Major Sell-Off Coming? Key Levels to Watch!USDJPY has been on a tear these past few weeks, charging toward some key higher timeframe resistance areas. Checking out the Monthly chart, I’m spotting what looks like a major trend reversal pattern. In July, USDJPY hit 162, and the resulting sell-off did two big things: it broke the long-term trendline and took out the last swing low from the previous leg up. (see chart below) Also, on the Monthly chart, you’ll notice that when price broke up through the 152 resistance to reach 162, there was a notable lack of momentum compared to earlier moves in this trend. We’re also seeing clear bearish divergence on the MACD—all signs of a major topping pattern and a likely trend reversal. Zooming into the weekly chart, and drawing fib retracement levels from the July drop, we’re right at the 0.618 level, aligning with the outside of the previous trendline. On the daily chart, we’ve reached what I consider a key SELL zone between 154-155. This level saw a 1500-pip drop in just days at the start of August. With three key confluences now in play and the Monthly chart showing a strong trend reversal pattern with MACD divergence, we could say “the stars are aligning” for this one. My approach? I’ll wait for the price to break above 154 and head toward 155, then turn on my TRFX indicator to look for 4-hour sell signals. Even if the market pushes higher, I’ll be on the lookout for more selling opportunities, especially if we move closer to 160. With all these factors lining up and the Bank of Japan’s interest rate decision this week, we could see a significant USDJPY sell-off. But I’ll WAIT for the SELL SIGNAL to confirm. If this major reversal takes shape, the price could drop quickly to this year’s low at 139.500, with possible profit-taking here and buyer re-entry, before pushing lower in the long term towards 127 or beyond. Note: This is a long-term, higher timeframe perspective and not a short-term trade. Let me know your thoughts below!
Short
by TheFxAce
5
USDJPY - Hangman Reversal (600 pip)Dollar (USD) has been extremely strong, however has come to a point of resistance and risk. US Elections are in 10 days. Market is monitoring the resiliency of US economy. With markets normalizing, looks like there may be more appetite for risk as Central Banks are telegraphing their moves. Yen (JPY) has been been on the other side of this coin and it has been nothing but weak. This is at a potential changing point with new administration in Japan, expected rate hikes coming from BoJ and shifting global trends. This will be highly data-driven trade. Can be invalidated or in-the-money extremely quickly.
Short
by dsmall
USD/ JPY ! 10/ 28 ! SELL resistance ! GAP USD/ JPY trend forecast October 28, 2024 The Japanese Yen (JPY) recovers about 50 pips from a three-month low against the USD, though gains are limited amid uncertainty over the Bank of Japan's rate hike plans and the ruling coalition’s recent loss of its parliamentary majority. Additionally, a positive risk sentiment continues to weigh on the safe-haven JPY. At the beginning of the week, the price created a GAP to increase - need to adjust to fill the GAP. There is a slight resistance zone - in the context of not much important news today. /// SELL USDJPY : zone 153.250 - 153.550 SL: 153.850 TP: 60 - 100 - 250 pips (151.050) Safe and profitable trading
Short
by Moon-ForexAcademy
2
10/25 ! USD JPY ! touch trend set up SELL USD/ JPY trend forecast October 25, 2024 The Japanese Yen (JPY) failed to build on Thursday’s recovery and faced renewed selling pressure during Friday's Asian session. Japan's business activity data for October showed a contraction in both manufacturing and services sectors. Additionally, a drop in Tokyo’s core inflation below the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) 2% target lowered expectations for further rate hikes in 2024, weighing on the JPY. A positive market sentiment and US Dollar (USD) buying also supported the USD/JPY pair around the mid-151.00s. However, verbal intervention by Japanese authorities helped limit further JPY losses. Traders now await US economic data for short-term direction amid political uncertainty before Japan’s general election on Sunday. H1 frame shows the price zone is adjusting - touching the trendline, continuing to adjust down /// SELL USDJPY : zone 151.850 - 152.050 SL: 152.500 TP: 50 - 100 - 250 pips (149.550) Safe and profitable trading
Short
by Moon-ForexAcademy
2
USDJPY | Perspective for the new week | Follow-upAfter an 8-week break from USD/JPY, I’m excited to bring it back to our watchlist as we prepare for next week’s trading! Over the past 9 months, this pair has experienced major shifts—from early-year expectations of Japan's monetary policy changes to the dollar's surge mid-year and the USD/JPY oscillating around the 150 zone in October. Key drivers include Japan's inflation data, with the latest CPI rising 2.5% YoY in September. As market rumours of another intervention grow, what opportunities lie ahead? Let's explore the key levels, trends, and setups for the coming week. USDJPY Technical Analysis: As discussed in the video, the recent upward momentum is showing signs of easing, leaving room for a possible USD pullback. However, for a confirmed uptrend continuation, we need to see sustained trading above 150.000. Our detailed technical analysis focused on the current bullish market structure, with particular attention to the key level of 150.000, set as a pivotal point for the upcoming week. This level gains significance as a potential catalyst for a clear uptrend if buying pressure persists. The market's response to this level at the beginning of the new week will strongly influence the direction of price action in the days ahead. #JapanInflation #USDJPY #Yen #BoJ #FederalReserve #Forex #CurrencyTrading #EconomicAnalysis #MarketAnalysis #Investing #Finance
by darcsherry