USDJPY Short? Patience is key hereYes, price reached the white Center-Line, which means: Price is at balance.
And yes, price is at the red U-MLH, which means: price is stretched.
Two good indications that a potential breather is lurking in the throat. But I'd better wait for more evidence. More momentum to the south.
Not stalking yet, but observing on the lower time frame too.
Usdjpyshort
USDJPY - Idea for a long !!Hello traders!
‼️ This is my perspective on USDJPY.
Technical analysis: Here we are in a bullish market structure from daily timeframe perspective, so I look for a long. My point of interest is rejection from bullish OB + institutional big figure 154.000 + trendline.
Like, comment and subscribe to be in touch with my content!
USD/JPY Short Scalp-USD/JPY has been pulling back for the past 12H, it is currently trading below a Trading Range and could evolve into a bear flag. Bulls do not show significant buying. FX:USDJPY
There is an extending triangle and an inside triangle forming, and could be sign of bears stepping in.
Target is 155.00, might not get it today but trade may evolve over next week depending on volatility.
Careful short, evolving
USD/JPY, Where to Next?As explained before before, USD/JPY drowned almost two percent this week, three scenarios can play out next:
- Bearish scenario: Current 4H chart is evolving into a bear flag from previous TR, bears could get a second or third (depending on ur analysis) leg down towards 154.00 target:
-Bullish scenario: Bulls could fight of the downtrend and reclaim 156.000 to evolve into a trading range. This will be hard as they have to reclaim 20 EMA where bears might be present. Bulls would need to show consecutive buying to show they are back in control.
-Sideways trading: Trading could be sideways to reach 20 EMA on the daily before next move is decided.
So far, odds favour the Bear scenario, the longer we stay below the trading range, the more likely bears are will get their bear leg.
- Scalp idea for the day traders:
Currently, theres an extending triangle evolving with an inside wedge top, this could be a sign bears are stepping in again. Bulls did not show strength at start of day, they got two small legs, but were not satisfied, likely to start selling again. Day could evolve into trading range day depending on reaction at day open.
If extending triangle plays out and there's consecutive selling, 155 is the target with 20 EMA acting as resistance.
Peace,
B Setup
Bottom Wedge USD/JPY - Which side will we see a breakout from ?
-> Following FX:USDJPY downfall, price almost fell two percent this week.
-> Bottom wedge was identified, which side it will break down to is still to be determined. Either way, an upside breakout can justify a scalp on 5-15 min timeframe a after consecutive bull bars are seem. Looking at the other side of the coin, a downside breakout would lead to a third leg down a indicate that the bear trend is soon halting or reversing.
-> Most importantly, be cautious and patient with such trades, wait for breakout and follow through buying- or selling- to place trade. Remember that USD/JPY is reversing with a strong Yen and odds favour bears, as seen with bear flag on this 4h chart:
Will the bear flag will get a secong leg and gain downside momentum?, or will we have a failed trading range breakout with a short term reversal around the 156.000 area is still to be determined.
B setup
Peace
It's time to shortIt's time to short
When placing trades it is obligatory to observe mani management. Our team uses the transaction volume (v) calculated by the formula:
v = D / 30 000, where D - deposit
USDJPY 🇺🇸🇯🇵
BUYSTOP 158.870 TP 158.970
SELLSTOP 157.150 TP 157.050
This strategy does not involve the use of Stop loss, so when placing orders, you should have a clear system of working off negative trades in your arsenal. Our mani-management, mentioned above, allows us to use averaging
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USD/JPY showing weaknessThe USD/JPY pair has been fluctuating within a range. Recent data shows the price closing around 157.30, indicating some stability in the short term. Key support levels are around 156.24, while resistance levels are near 158.421. These levels can act as potential entry or exit points. so 156 will be a good level to short wit a red 4h candle closed near. Nver enter after a green candle only after a 4h bearish candle closed bellow 156.24. SCALP target @156.244 SWING Target @153.160
USD/JPY: where is my carry trade?Hi everyone,
Since my last idea, a lot has changed. My swing target of 150 was reached, and buyers took over in December. Recently, USD/JPY hit a 6-month high of ~158.5.
Since that low at 150 in December we saw different major signals from UJ:
"When the last buyer died..." buyers volume spike on 19 of December. Healthy accumulation on 4 of December supported the rally, showing more love for the dollar than yen.
"Heyyy, I know this thing—order block!" Post-Dec 19, price rose to 158.4 with waning buyer volume and mounting shorts. OB or just noise? Suspicious either way.
"Is this still an uptrend?" Price action shows small but consistent higher highs/lows. Volatility indicators hint at rising consolidation.
"Dollar supremacy forever?" Yes, dollar is stronger, but corrections happen. Whether at 70 or 175 USD/JPY, dollar will still be stronger.
"BoJ wouldn't intervene before 160. Are they bluffing?" May be possible, but I doubt it. The finance minister concern was very high yen depreciation and they mentioned that "we wouldn't let USD/JPY reach 160". But Japan’s MO is more stealth than spectacle I think.
Lastly, for my technical analysis lovers, pitchforks . Pitchforks are a more "hipster" way to draw trendlines. Maybe also more mathematical way. They are easy, but advanced pitchfork usage may be tricky.
As you see in the chart, we’re stuck between an upper bound and a demand zone. This supports my idea of consolidation, since the demand zone and the upper pitchfork are the current support and resistance.
Another one for tech analysis lovers. Elliott Waves . There is a possibility that we are in the so called "elliot correction waves", which is often seen after an uptrend. Leg A was the summer drop, leg B took us to 158.5, and leg C could dip us to 136–146. Probability? No idea, but the range fits the pitchfork, Elliott theory, and interest rate differential. Your guess is as good as mine.
Chapter 1: Rising Distribution – Not Your Average Wyckoff
The distribution I am talking about is not the Power of Three or AMD distribution concept. For old school lovers, the distribution I mean is based on Wyckoff method. Wyckoff was an analyst who described the difference between trends and ranging markets way before traders had 3 screens with gradient indicators and fancy ways to detect the regime.
In his method, there is a thing called "distribution". It is when the institutions are fed up with the uptrend and want to sell an asset. This is also when the "buys" are transferred from institutional hands to our, normal traders, hands. How does it work? FOMO, news and herd instinct. This is where "don't stand in front of an ultra-fast train" fails.
Classic Wyckoff distribution : the point where institutions get off the train, and retail traders hop on thinking it’s express to the moon. Rising distributions happen when the crowd still expects an uptrend, but the big players quietly exit. Seems like they have another train plan. At least, that's what the volume delta says. :)
Chapter 2: The Macro Mix
US is strong. Still solid. Even with inflation and bubbles, USD rides high thanks to its post-WWII economic dominance. This allows US to export their debt until today. Debt, tech booms, and AI surges aside, the system holds.
We’ve swapped dot-com booms (2000 DotCom Bubble) for AI hype and NVIDIA super-processors. Just like the early 2000s with software, we’re seeing another leap, but with AI, robotics, and LLMs instead of spreadsheets and PCs.
I wont mention any other issues with US economy, you could read that in my previous idea, and Trump tariffs wouldn't help it either, so everything stays the same.
Another thing, but not only concentrated on US: wealth gap. Wealth gaps grow, and some of the folks that were living right in the middle, having more than enough, but not too much, are struggling financially now, or became rich and big. But blindly piling into assets isn't the answer. Markets shift, and the rich adapt.
If you want more insights about the wealth gap and how it may worsen the recession, check out the amazing videos from "Garys Economics" . A former Citi bank top trader, Gary specializes in forex, especially Yen and Swiss franc.
Chapter 3: Yen vs. Dollar Carry Trade
The interest rate differential is narrowing. BoJ raised their rates for the first time since the '90s. Japan’s deflationary pressures pushed change . Sure thing Japan has to change something, and they did and will do.
Japan is still a tech and automotive powerhouse, but monetary policy is tricky. Wouldn’t a cheaper yen help exports? Its complicated. Dollar and euro is still doing fine, being ones of the leading currencies in the world and also leading in exports. I don't think that matters that much.
Now, zoom out of the chart. Historically, USD/JPY was 138–145 at similar USD rates. Add the new yen rate, and voilà: you get my 136–146 range.
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Finalizing, USD/JPY is my muse. It is my main trading currency, maybe the only one. The a constant battle between east and west, logic and mystery is truly beautiful. Since Dec 19, it’s been weird for most of us.
Currently with AI surging in trading, we see companies fighting to find the alpha in the market. The strategy that will always work, the key to unlocking the market. This goes on for years and didn't start only now. Markets evolve, new players enter, and unexpected events (Black Swans) rewrite everything. Nevertheless, the "holy grail" strategy doesn’t exist (yet).
More and more AI models are flexible and need to be improved faster and faster. So should your strategy be, even if you are not an AI.
AI or not, adaptability is your true alpha. I’ve also updated my own metrics, ditched outdated ones, and embraced new indicators and models.
Learn some coding. Python, R, and Pinescript will be as essential as Excel soon.
You could also start with pinescript by editing your indicators/strategies in a way, that your ideas are implemented in it.
Never stop learning, even when it feels like the market is gaslighting you.
Navigate the markets like an explorer: decode shifting patterns and embrace the unknown future.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always perform your own analysis before making trading decisions.
USDJPY ANALYSIS IS READY TO FLY MUST READ THE CAPTION The chart for USD/JPY shows the following:
1. Timeframe: 1-hour chart.
2. Key Levels:
Target Zone: Around 159.100, indicating a potential bullish target.
Current Price: Approximately 157.933 (Sell) and 157.946 (Buy).
Stop Loss: Positioned near 157.226 to manage downside risk.
3. Technical Analysis:
Pattern: A potential rounding top or consolidation phase before a breakout.
Scenarios: Two possible bullish outcomes are shown with arrows:
A breakout above the resistance zone, aiming for the target zone (159.100).
A retracement followed by a bullish move.
Key Support Levels: 157.692 and below, which could act as critical zones to watch.
4. Moving Average: A moving average (possibly the 200 EMA) provides additional support near the stop-loss level.
5. Trading Idea: Buy opportunities are highlighted with strict risk management via the stop-loss placement.
The chart suggests bullish momentum but emphasizes careful monitoring of price action near key levels.
#USDJPY 2HUSDJPY (2H Timeframe) Analysis
Market Structure:
The price is currently testing a key resistance level, which has previously acted as a barrier to upward movement. Signs of rejection at this level indicate potential selling pressure.
Forecast:
A sell opportunity is anticipated if the price continues to face rejection from the resistance zone, signaling a possible move downward.
Key Levels to Watch:
Entry Zone: Near the resistance level after confirmation of rejection.
Risk Management:
Stop Loss: Placed above the resistance zone or recent swing high to minimize risk.
Take Profit: Target the nearest support levels for potential downside movement.
Market Sentiment:
Selling pressure is expected to dominate as long as the price remains below the resistance level, maintaining a bearish outlook.
USDJPY Scenario 1.1.2025At this moment we are shown two scenarios, both shorts, we have an sfp above the low because it could give us a better view of the overall direction the market could be heading at the moment, support above us, which if it breaks, nothing prevents us from moving to a higher level, if we hold the level, then we can expect a move somewhere towards the price of 150, but I am still waiting for confirmation.
#USDJPY 2HUSDJPY (2H Timeframe) Analysis
Market Structure:
The price is trading within a channel pattern, respecting both support and resistance levels. Currently, it is near the upper boundary of the channel, indicating possible resistance.
Forecast:
Wait for a retest of the channel resistance before considering a sell position, as confirmation is required to validate a potential move downward.
Key Levels to Watch:
Entry Zone: After a retest and rejection from the upper boundary of the channel.
Risk Management:
Stop Loss: Placed above the channel resistance or recent swing high.
Take Profit: Target the midline or lower boundary of the channel for potential downside movement.
Market Sentiment:
The setup suggests a cautious bearish bias, but confirmation signals are needed before executing a trade.
USDJPY USD/JPY is extending pullback from multi-month high of 158.07 set on Thursday. The pair drops toward 157.00 in the Asian session on Friday, courtesy of the negative shift in risk sentiment. Markets remain concerned about China's econmic health and the upcoming policies by the Fed and the BoJThe Department of Labour reported that individuals claiming jobless benefits for the first time were 211K, lower than estimates of 222K and the former release of 220K, upwardly revised from 216K.
The Greenback was already performing strongly on expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will reduce interest rates gradually this yearMeanwhile, the Japanese Yen (JPY) performs strongly against its major peers on Thursday amid worries that Japanese administration could intervene in the FX domain against excessive foreign exchange moves. Japan Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato said last week that authorities are watching FX moves closely and will act to stabilize faltering Yen
USDJPYWell, we are now at a new year, and my expectations are there will be some retracements to be made on the pair.
Considering that the previous analysis was bullish, I am still anticipating on the same, but we have to fill in some imbalances and inefficiencies on the lower side. I do anticipate that the price might first retract on the lower side to form an LL / wick, which might touch 2023 yearly HH at 152.
Target 152, SL at 157.8
USDJPY SELL | Idea Trading AnalysisUSDJPY is moving to the upper boundary of the ascending channel.
The volatility of the movement has decreased.
The price has reached the resistance level.
We expect a decline in the channel after testing the current level
Hello Traders, here is the full analysis.
I think we can soon see more fall from this range! GOOD LUCK! Great SELL opportunity USDJPY
I still did my best and this is the most likely count for me at the moment.
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Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad ⚜️
USD/JPY Technical Analysis: Key Levels and Potential ScenariosThis analysis focuses on the USD/JPY pair on the daily timeframe, highlighting critical support and resistance levels. The current setup reflects the importance of a key range for maintaining the bullish outlook.
USD/JPY Technical Analysis: Key Levels and Potential Scenarios
This analysis focuses on the USD/JPY pair on the daily timeframe, highlighting critical support and resistance levels. The current setup reflects the importance of a key range for maintaining the bullish outlook.
Key Levels:
Critical Zone: 155.47–154.75
This zone acts as a pivotal level for the continuation of the uptrend.
As long as the daily candle does not close below this range, the bullish scenario remains valid.
Upside Targets:
The first resistance level is identified at 160.099.
A breakout above this level could lead to further gains, with the next target at 161.753.
Indicator Insights:
DTOsc (DT Oscillator):
The oscillator is moving toward the oversold region.
This could align with a price reaction from the key support zone, aiding the potential resumption of the uptrend.
USD/JPY Technical Analysis: Key Levels and Potential Scenarios
This analysis focuses on the USD/JPY pair on the daily timeframe, highlighting critical support and resistance levels. The current setup reflects the importance of a key range for maintaining the bullish outlook.
Key Levels:
Critical Zone: 155.47–154.75
This zone acts as a pivotal level for the continuation of the uptrend.
As long as the daily candle does not close below this range, the bullish scenario remains valid.
Upside Targets:
The first resistance level is identified at 160.099.
A breakout above this level could lead to further gains, with the next target at 161.753.
Indicator Insights:
DTOsc (DT Oscillator):
The oscillator is moving toward the oversold region.
This could align with a price reaction from the key support zone, aiding the potential resumption of the uptrend.
Potential Scenarios:
Bullish Scenario:
If the 155.47–154.75 support zone holds and the daily candle closes above this range, the pair is likely to resume its uptrend toward the 160.099 and 161.753 targets.
Bearish Scenario:
A daily close below 154.75 would invalidate the bullish outlook and may lead to increased selling pressure.
Conclusion:
USD/JPY is trading within a critical range, with the 155.47–154.75 level serving as a decisive zone for the continuation of the uptrend. As long as this level holds on a daily closing basis, the pair is expected to climb toward its higher targets.
Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments and follow me for more professional insights and detailed analyses!
JPY currency index and JPY pairs ideas📊🇯🇵Since JPYX (JPY Currency Index), Daily chart rebounded from the Demand zone after the Jibun Bank Japan Manufacturing PMI yesterday.
Here we spotted some JPY pairs changed direction in Daily Chart as well. They are in BOS(Break of structure) stage, we are waiting a retest back to the Sell Zone and drop again.
USDJPY BUY | Idea Trading AnalysisUSDJPY is moving in an UP trend channel.
The chart broke through the dynamic Resistance line, which now acts as support.
We expect a decline in the channel after testing the current level which suggests that the price will continue to rise
Hello Traders, here is the full analysis.
I think we can soon see more fall from this range! GOOD LUCK! Great BUY opportunity USDJPY
I still did my best and this is the most likely count for me at the moment.
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Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad