USDJPY: The 10-year Japanese government bond yield could reach 2CEO of asset management fund Eurizon SLJ Capital, Mr. Stephen Jen, said that the USDJPY exchange rate could fall to 1 USD for 130 Yen by the end of this year, while the yield on Japanese government bonds with a term of 10 year is likely to increase by 1.5% - 2%. USDJPY traded around 148.10 and the 10-year bond yield was at 0.71% on January 29.
According to Stephen Jen, the father of the Laughing Dollar theory, Governor Kazuo Ueda's focus in the near future is to reset monetary policy "to allow the BoJ to act without bursting the government bond bubble (JGB )”.
Usdjpyshort
Adding shorts to USDJPYMy view on USDJPY has not changed. I still see a bearish setup with a strong confirmation. Break of main trendline (daily), retest of it, i expect a break of the short term trendline (Hourly) and drop. As a support, there is a nice divergence on H4 timeframe. Target is around 146.000, invalidation is a break above recent highs
USDJPY major pullback or reversal?4H TF
- trendline broken, waiting on retest
- FVG intersection with said trendline
- 50% fib level confluent with both of above
- previous breaker block confluent with all of above
- LL created
1H TF
- FVG overlapping 4H FVG
15M TF
- 5 touches just below target entry (LIQUIDITY SWEEP?)
- FVG inside of both HTF FVGS.
ALL of the above intersect within the same PRICE RANGE. Highly probable that a retest and a rejection of all will allow the BEARS to takeover and create a new LH - Entering the start of a potential downtrend if enough liquidity.
M30 | Usdjpy | Decision PiontHello everyone ...
usdjpy is on buy trend this may continue the trend or if price break out entry levels and sell trend will start and this entry will be invalid..
Use good trade management only thing important in Trading is how you manage your trade...
WHAT YOU THINK ABOUT THIS PAIR LET ME KNOW IN COMMENT..
.. good luck..
USD/JPY Made H&S Pattern , Ready To Sell To Get 200 Pips ?This Is An Educational + Analytic Content That Will Teach Why And How To Enter A Trade
Make Sure You Watch The Price Action Closely In Each Analysis As This Is A Very Important Part Of Our Method
Disclaimer : This Analysis Can Change At Anytime Without Notice And It Is Only For The Purpose Of Assisting Traders To Make Independent Investments Decisions.
Currency to watch this week: Japanese Yen The three big events of this week will likely be the BoJ, BoC, and ECB interest rate decisions.
Even though we aren't expecting to see any rate cuts or rate rises from any bank, we are looking forward to the guidance that each will present alongside their respective decisions. The guidance might be enough to move the yen, Canadian dollar, or euro.
The USD/JPY might be the one to watch the closest this week though. In particular, we like watching the tussle in the pair as it approaches 150.000 with bulls having to become a little sheepish as they anticipate BoJ intervention around this level. Is the threat of intervention sometimes more than enough to convince bulls not to take on any more long positions?
Coincidently, Japan’s finance minister Shun'ichi Suzuki gave a verbal warning last Friday saying that the government was watching currency moves carefully.
Working against the yen is that BoJ guidance at the time of its interest rate decision will likely be as dovish as always, considering last week's domestic inflation data (falling to 2.6% in December 2023 from 2.8% in the prior month). Which is why you might anticipate more upside in the USDJPY. Although anything is possible. The Bank of Japan has shocked markets before.
USDJPY I Forecast ahead of BOJ POLICY RATE 💰Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
** USDJPY Analysis - Listen to video!
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USDJPY On trigger pointUSDJPY is following my ideas and is now entered to my triggered zone to start selling. My main target is 146.250. On H4 tf i can see a bearish divergence, that is now confirmed by another bearish divergence on smaller timeframes. I expect to see a beginning of the correction today, that should continue next week
Sell USDJPY Triangle PatternUSD/JPY M30 Triangle Breakout Signals Potential Downtrend
A bearish triangle pattern has emerged on the USD/JPY pair's M30 chart, hinting at a potential breakdown and further downward movement.
Key Points:
Pattern: The pair has been consolidating within a triangle formation, characterized by converging support and resistance lines. This often indicates a period of indecision before a decisive move.
Sell Entry: A break below the lower support line of the triangle, around 148.10, could signal a bearish breakout and offer a potential sell entry.
Targets: Potential bearish targets are located at the support levels of 147.16 and 146.60.
Stop Loss: A stop loss can be placed above the upper resistance line of the triangle, around 148.50, to manage risk.
Additional Considerations:
Market Sentiment: The overall market sentiment and fundamental factors influencing both the USD and JPY will also impact the pair's price action.
Economic Data: Keep an eye on upcoming economic data releases from both the US and Japan, as they could influence the currencies' relative strength.
Risk Management: Employ proper risk management strategies, including appropriate trade sizing and stop-loss orders, to protect your capital.
Fundamental Factors :
1. Mixed US Housing Data Dampens USD Strength: Earlier on Friday, mixed US housing data, including weaker-than-expected housing starts but a surprising rise in building permits, cast doubt on the strength of the US economy and capped gains for the dollar. This could put downward pressure on USD/JPY.
2. Weak Japanese Machinery Orders Add to Downside Risks: Japan's core machinery orders, a key indicator of future capital spending, unexpectedly declined in November, raising concerns about the health of the Japanese economy. This could lead to increased safe-haven demand for the Japanese yen, weakening USD/JPY further.
3. Rising Global Risk Aversion Favors JPY: Heightened geopolitical tensions and ongoing recession fears in some economies are prompting investors to seek safe-haven currencies like the yen. This could contribute to a decline in USD/JPY.
Thank you
USDJPY I Potential short from resistance Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
** USDJPY Analysis - Listen to video!
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USD/JPY: Retests to kill momentum? USD/JPY: Retests to kill momentum?
The USD/JPY experienced a notable surge from 144.50 as the week commenced, surpassing the 61.8% retracement level from the November-December downturn. It breached its 100-day MA, demonstrating a one-way move that resulted in a gain of 400 pips. Since the beginning of the year, the yen has incurred a loss exceeding 4%.
Presently, the currency pair stands at a six-week high, propelled by a rally in the dollar following comments from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller. His remarks tempered expectations of a rate cut in March.
The immediate obstacle to further upward movement lies in a retest of 149.700, followed by the crucial threshold of 150.00.
Today's release of consumer inflation data from Japan is anticipated to provide additional indications of easing price pressures and will be crucial in determining how well the pair performs against the noted resistance levels that are in its sights, or how well the 100-day MA holds up as a level of support.
USDJPY SELL | Setup Trading AnalysisHello Traders, here is the full analysis.
Short after the BULL RUN. GOOD LUCK! Great SELL opportunity USDJPY
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USDJPY SetupUSDJPY has gone higher than i was expecting. Honestly, my previous idea was wrong and the dollar rise more than expected. I still wait the drop, and now USDJPY has hit an important sell zone. 148-148.200 is a resistance area that also fit with the 1.618 level of the recent range. I expect a drop here till the level 146.000, Stoploss just above the 148.200 area, at 148.750/149
USDJPY - Look for a long ✅Hello traders!
‼️ This is my perspective on USDJPY.
Technical analysis: Here we are in a bullish market structure from 4H timeframe perspective, so I am looking for longs. My point of interest for a long position is if price makes a retracement to fill the imbalance lower and then to reject from bullish order block + institutional big figure 145.000.
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USDJPY DROP 218 PIPS / 6R Trade +
1.) end of monthly pullback
2.) 2 weekly wicks rejections
3.) weekly 0.5 fib. level
4.) daily a lot of divergence pressure
5.) building daily liq.
6.) 4h divergence
7.) failed for 4h higher high
Now you can also see my entry model with sell and buy areas and minor levels to enter the trades.
Entry Model
USDJPY Short Term Sell IdeaH4 - Bearish trend pattern followed by a potential correction.
Bearish divergence.
Until the two key resistance zones hold my short term view remains bearish here.
A valid breakout below the most recent uptrend line would be the validation for this short term bearish view.
USDJPY (H1)A bearish candlestick pattern may appearUSDJPY (H1)A bearish candlestick pattern may appear at the current price area
Sell stop at 145.706 (When the candlestick pattern forms)
Stop loss at 146.006
Take Profit 1 at 145.397 (Fibonacci 0.5)
Take Profit 2 at 144.894 (front of Fibonacci 0.236)
Note on capital management 2%