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Usdjpyshort

USDJPY to continue in the downward move?USDJPY - 24h expiry The rally was sold and the dip bought resulting in mild net gains yesterday. Selling posted in Asia. We have a Gap open at 147.02 from 04.04 to 06.04. The medium term bias remains bearish. A Fibonacci confluence area is located at 143.68. Preferred trade is to sell into rallies. We look to Sell at 147.02 (stop at 148.02) Our profit targets will be 143.68 and 143.10 Resistance: 147.02 / 148.09 / 150.49 Support: 144.58 / 143.68 / 143.07 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
Short
by OANDA
Tariffs, Stagflation, and Yen Strength Set the Stage for a CleanAlright degenerates, here’s your clean macro breakdown. Pair with strongest directional bias right now: USD/JPY Bias: SHORT USD/JPY (Bearish USD / Bullish JPY) WHY? Because the U.S. just tripped over its own tariffs and dragged the dollar with it. 1. U.S. melting down: • Trump went full trade-war goblin: 10% base tariffs on everything, up to 100% on certain countries. • Fed now cornered — inflation UP, growth DOWN = stagflation vibes. • Powell already out here looking like he wants to cut rates yesterday. • S&P nuked -4.9%, $2.5 trillion gone in a day. This is not a drill. 2. Japan not looking great, but better than the U.S.: • BOJ possibly delaying hikes, but inflation’s been above 2% for 3 years. • Tokyo CPI still hot. • Plus: classic safe-haven flow kicking in thanks to all the macro chaos. • Yen doing what yen does—acting like gold in a suit. 3. Geopolitical backdrop: • EU & Japan both throwing shade at U.S. tariffs. • Retaliation incoming? Risk-off vibes continue. • Markets shifting to JPY like it’s 2020 all over again. 4. Central Bank energy: • Fed: Shaky, reactive, duck-and-cover mode. • BOJ: Holding back, but not out. Inflation gives them ammo. ⸻ TL;DR: • USD is getting wrecked by its own government. • JPY benefiting from safe-haven flows + stable inflation. • Every major factor (macro, policy, geopolitics, sentiment) leans one way. • USD/JPY short looks clean AF from a fundamental standpoint. Not financial advice. I don’t care what you do. Just don’t long this trash. Now go slap some fibs and RSI on this thing and pretend you knew it all along.
Short
by GreenhillFin
Short All weekly momentum indicators IMACD, RSI and Stochastic) are all bearish, so I have been looking for a short opportunity in 4H and daily charts. $151.85 is the major resistance and support zone (black horizontal line in the chart).  On Feb 6, USD/JPY broke and closed below the area, but it failed to continue to the downside. In the following few days, it retraced to Fib 0.5 area but started to move down. Today the price broke below Fib 0.236.   I like the yesterday's strong red candle, cancelling all the buy pressure from the previous day.  I opened a short position this morning.   Entry at $152.83. Stop Loss: $155.145 Target 1: $149.52  (move stop loss to the entry level once it hits this level) Target 2: $147.395
Short
by EbonyFalcon
4
USDJPY Reversal: Bearish Momentum Builds Below Key ResistanceUSDJPY pair is showing signs of a bearish reversal after rejecting a key resistance zone near 151.241. The price has failed to sustain bullish momentum and has formed a potential double-top/wedge structure, indicating a shift in trend. Key Resistance: 151.241 - 152.097 (Strong supply zone) Bearish Confirmation: Break below 149.592 confirms downside continuation. Key Downside Targets: 148.195, 146.990, and 145.855 as major support zones. If sellers maintain pressure, a deeper pullback toward the 145.855 - 145.824 region could be expected. However, a break above 152.097 would invalidate the bearish setup and could push the price toward 154.090.
Short
by ultreosforex
USD/JPY - ShortWeekly (Bias Validation) - Price between EMAs → ❌ Ranging - Major Swing Point High: 158.880 Low: 146.543 D1 (Daily): Trend Bias - Price below 200EMA & 50EMA on D1 → ✅ Bearish Bias - Major Swing Point High: 154.804 Low: 146.543 - ✅ Break of Structure (BoS) + Volume Imbalance - Price below Weekly VWAP → ✅ Bearish Bias
 H4 (4-Hour): Trend Bias - Price below 200EMA & 50EMA on D1 → ✅ Bearish Bias - Major Swing Point High: 151.214 Low: 149.684 - ✅ Break of Structure (BoS) + Volume Imbalance - Price below Weekly VWAP → ✅ Bearish Bias - High-Probability Entry Zones (H4 OTE) - H4 OB (OTE) H1 (1-Hour): Trend Bias - Swing Point High: 150.953 Low: 149.684 - ✅ Break of Structure (BoS) + Volume Imbalance - H4 OB → (OTE) - H1 OB → (OTE) 🔲 Validate with VWAP:
✔ ✅ H1 VWAP must align with H4 OTE before entry
✔ ✅ If price rejects H1 VWAP + OB midpoint, strong trade setup 🔲 Entry Options:
✔ Option 1 (Limit Order Entry): * Place a limit order at the OB midpoint inside OTE * Set stop-loss below OB (for longs) / above OB (for shorts) ✔ Option 2 (EMA Confirmation Entry): * ✅ Enter when 9EMA crosses 21EMA near OTE * ✅ Must have Volume Imbalance Confirmation 🔲 Final Confirmation:
✔ ✅ High Volume on Structure Break → Confirms strong move
✔ ✅ Low Volume on Pullback → Smart money accumulation
Short
by warsam
USD/JPY (Short)Daily:
 Price < 200EMA Swing Period 10

 Swing High: 158.880
Swing Low: 146.543 
Volume Imbalance: 5 Candles

 Daily Order Block: 155.223 / 153.916 H4: Price < 200EMA Swing Period: 7 Swing High: 152.315
Swing Low: 146.597 Volume Imbalance: 3 Candles H4 Order Block: 152.762 / 151.242 H1: Swing Period: 5 Swing High: 152.315
Swing Low: 146.597 Volume Imbalance: 3 Candles H1 Order Block: 151.762 / 151.628 Model 1:
 Entry Price: 151.692 
Stop Loss: 152.447

TP1: 150.115 @ 1:2 / 50% TP2: 149.363 @ 1:3 / 25% SL: Breakeven TP3: 146.552 @ 1:5 / 25% Model 2: 
 Entry Price: 151.108 - 150.141
 Entry Trigger: 9EMA X 21EMA

 SL: Above recent swing high

TP1: 1:2
 SL: Trailing 9EMA
Short
by warsam
2
USD/JPY 30-Minute Trade Setup: Bullish Reversal from Key SupportEMA (30, close) - Red Line: 149.488 (shorter-term trend) EMA (200, close) - Blue Line: 149.862 (longer-term trend) Trade Setup: Entry Zone: Around 149.000 (marked by the purple support area) Stop Loss: 148.698 (below the key support level) Target Point: 150.275 (potential profit level) Analysis: Price is currently testing a strong support zone (purple area), suggesting a possible bullish reversal. The 30 EMA (red) is acting as local resistance. The 200 EMA (blue) is positioned above, which may act as further resistance if price moves up. The price action suggests a potential bounce from support, leading to a target around 150.275. Risk-to-Reward Consideration: Stop loss is placed slightly below the support zone for risk management. Target price provides a favorable risk-to-reward ratio of approximately 1:3. Conclusion: A long (buy) trade is expected if price holds above the support zone. If price breaks below 148.698, the bullish setup could be invalidated. A break above 149.862 (200 EMA) would confirm a stronger bullish continuation.
Long
by EA_GOLD_MAN_COPY_TRADE
USDJPY Price ActionHello Traders, As you can see, the price dropped from the previous supply zone and has formed a new one. Along the way, it created both internal and external liquidity, which helps strengthen the newly formed zone — a common pattern we see repeatedly. Remember, just because price didn’t move as expected and hit your stop loss, it doesn’t mean your analysis was wrong. That’s exactly why we use stop losses — to protect our capital before chasing profit. I’ve marked the internal and external liquidity, along with the new supply and demand zones on the chart. As always, without liquidity, there’s no valid zone confirmation. Risk management is key — that’s all you really need. Wishing you all the best and happy trading. Thank you!
Short
by SuvashishFx
2
ShortYesterday, I opened a short position during the Asian session and published my trade set up , but I ended up manually closing the position before the US open becauseI was a bit anxious about US GDP data.  But the main concern was the price was hovering around the major support and resistance area and I could see valid reasons to go long as well. The obvious reason for the long position was the price was forming big inverted head and shoulder patterns.    So, if the price broke above the resistance area, there would have been a great upside potential.   However, after the US session opened, I ended up opening a short position.  The reasons are written in the article I published yesterday.  Please read that article that is linked below. But another argument I would like to add for the bear scenario is this. In Nov-Dec 2024, we had a very similar set up ( dark blue rectangular box in the chart.)   At the time, the price was also forming the inverted head and shoulder at the same support/resistance zone.  Once it broke the resistance line, it took off to the upside.   And that same scenario can unfold this time as well. However, what is different between Dec 2024 period and the current period are: 1) VWAP (volume weighted average price) drawn from the major low in 24th Sept  was working as support but this time the same VWAP is working as resistance.   2) MACD and RSI were moving from bear zone to the bull zone, but this time they are moving to the downside from the bull zone.   Therefore, I think the momentum is to the downside this time. The only time will tell. My current short position is quite small. However, once the direction becomes more clear I plan to add more position because the move to the downside from here can be quite significant.
Short
by EbonyFalcon
ShortI had a few failed short trades in the last few weeks for this pair.    My overall bias is bearish and I must admit having a strong bias cost me.  I was too eager to execute a trade and I ended up front running and instead of reacting to the price action.   This morning, I opened two short positions (1 position size divided into two) for USDJPY . Trade set up: Entry: 150.945Stop Loss: 151.458 Target 1: 149.680 (blue horizontal line - previous week open price, Fair value gap and order block in 4H) Target 2:  148.306 (Previous week low, fair value gap )  Reasons for short entry: Weekly: The price had broken and closed below the previous low at 148.65.  It went up again but it is respecting FVG at 150.50 zone. RSI is starting to enter the bear territory. Daily: The price is still below EMA 200 and is respecting FVG at 150.50 zone. RSI line is still in the bear zone.  4H: The price dropped and closed below the ascending trendline.   I like the candlestick formations at the FVG - very small candles with upper wicks followed by a large engulfing candle.  (1H is better to see the price movement). Sorry, I forgot the name of this formation! RSI is presenting negative divergence. Ideally, it is better to wait for the price to drop, retest and close below 200EMA in 4H and 4H RSI to dive into bear territory.    However, I felt there are enough confluences to support my bias and I like the risk:reward for this set up.   Therefore, I decided to open a short position, but my position size is small. Please let me know what you think.  
Short
by EbonyFalcon
151.00 Cracks: Is USD/JPY’s Rally Over? Key Levels AheadFrom a fundamental perspective, the USD/JPY exchange rate retreated from around the 151.00 level. Despite the poor Japanese PMI data on Monday, investors bought the Japanese yen influenced by the hawkish outlook of the Bank of Japan (BoJ). The minutes of the January meeting showed that policymakers tend to tighten policies when appropriate. The BoJ governor also stated that the degree of monetary easing will be adjusted once the 2% inflation target is achieved. Technically, the overnight breakout above the 150.00 psychological mark and the 200 - period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4 - hour chart is a bullish signal. Indicators on the daily chart also support appreciation, and pullbacks may present buying opportunities. If the rate breaks below 150.00, it may accelerate its decline to support levels such as 149.30 - 149.25. Failure to hold these levels indicates that the rebound momentum has been exhausted and the trend may turn bearish. Conversely, if it stabilizes above 151.00, the upward resistance levels are successively 151.30, 151.75 (the 200 - day SMA), and it may even rise to 153.00. I will share trading signals every day. All the signals have been accurate for a whole month in a row. If you also need them, please click on the link below the article to obtain them.
Long
by JohnGonzalez7
USDJPY Trending Lower - Will It Drop To 145.200?OANDA:USDJPY is currently trading within a descending channel, indicating a strong bearish structure. The price has broken below a key support zone and may now pull back for a potential retest. This level previously acted as support and could now serve as resistance, aligning with a possible bearish continuation. If sellers confirm resistance at this zone, the price is likely to move downward toward the 145.200 target. However, a failure to reject this level could indicate a potential shift in momentum. Traders should monitor for bearish confirmation signals, such as bearish engulfing candles, strong wicks rejecting the resistance zone, or increased selling volume, before considering short positions. Let me know your thoughts or any additional insights you might have!
Short
by DanieIM
31
USD/JPY 4H Analysis – Potential Bearish RetestThe USD/JPY pair has been in a clear downtrend, trading within a descending channel for an extended period. Recently, price action has broken above the channel, but it is now facing resistance around the 150.35 level. Retest Zone: The pair is currently retesting the broken trendline, and if it fails to sustain above this level, a rejection could lead to further downside. Bearish Expectation: If the price fails to reclaim 150.35, a move towards the 147.00 support zone is likely. Confirmation: A strong bearish candle from this level could indicate a reversal, confirming the downward move. Traders should watch for price action signals at the retest level before making decisions.
Short
by PIPsOptimizer
USDJPY 1.2850 Long in Profit: Next Week's Take - Profit GuideThis week, the long position signal on USDJPY at the 1.28500 level has already started yielding profits. As we look ahead to next week, it is advisable to commence position closing once the price reaches the pre - determined target levels. Rest assured, I will persist in furnishing precise trading signals. I will share trading signals every day. All the signals have been accurate for a whole month in a row. If you also need them, please click on the link below the article to obtain them.
Long
by JohnGonzalez7