UsdJpy- New leg down after correction?As I explained in my previous post, UsdJpy could accelerate its decline and test 3 October's low.
After this anticipated drop, the pair started to correct to the upside and now it's approaching an important sell zone.
I'm looking to fade rallies around 149.50 for a new leg down.
A close above 150 zone would negate this scenario
Usdjpyshort
Drops to an eight-week low, hovers around 147.50FX:USDJPY extended the losing streak that began on Thursday and marked an eight-week low, trading around 147.40 during the European session on Tuesday. The 147.00 psychological level emerges as the immediate support following the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 146.32.
The US Dollar (USD) has plunged to a nearly three-month low, influenced by dovish expectations from the Federal Reserve (Fed). This development is a significant factor contributing to the decline of the USD/JPY pair.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) lies below the 50 level, signaling a weaker sentiment for the USD/JPY pair. This could potentially prompt bearish movements toward the psychological support region around 146.00. If a decisive break occurs below this level, it may pave the way for the USD/JPY pair to navigate the area near the 50.0% retracement at the 144.60 level.
Moreover, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line is positioned below the centerline and diverges below the signal line, signaling a bearish momentum in the market for the USD/JPY pair.
On the upside, the major level at 147.50 serves as the immediate barrier, followed by the psychological level at 148.00. A breakthrough above the latter could provide support for the USD/JPY pair to explore the region around the 149.00 level following the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 149.62.
USDJPY 4H: Support further decline USDJPY
New forecast
The price of the dollar pair against the yen fell to exceed the level of 149.41, and now it is trying to stabilize below it, the support level of 148.35, and stability below this level will confirm the continuation of the dominance of the downward trend in the immediate term, and the way is open to heading towards our next target at 147.87 and 146.98.
Therefore the downward scenario will be remain valid once stabilized under 148.35 level , taking into account that failure to stabilized under 148.35 level and reversed above 148.89 will support the price to rise up again and do a positive correction .
The expect range trading for today it will between resistance line 149.41 and support line 146.98.
support line : 147.87 , 146.98
resistance line : 148.89 , 149.41
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Something is setting up on USDJPY, I'm just not sure what. USDJPY has been in decline again the Yen since last weeks CPI release. The thing I find most interesting though is the rate of the fall. The left hand chart shows the expected daily range (ExMo) for the pair, with price moving further than expectation in the last 4 sessions.
Yesterday we dropped double ExMo by 9:30am! With price sitting on the low for the rest of the session.
The issue right now is I'm not sure if the opportunity is in a reversion to the upside, or if we should fade any pops?
Let me know your thoughts, and I'll continue to update this idea as we go.
PIMCO Is Buying Yen to Brace for Imminent BOJ Monetary Policy ShPIMCO, one of the world's leading investment management firms, has taken a significant position in buying yen, indicating their preparedness for an imminent tightening of the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) monetary policy.
The BOJ has long been known for its accommodative stance, but recent economic indicators and signals from policymakers suggest a potential shift towards a more hawkish approach. PIMCO's move to buy the yen serves as a clear indication that they anticipate the BOJ to take actions that could strengthen the Japanese currency.
Given PIMCO's reputation and expertise in navigating global markets, their decision to buy yen should not be taken lightly. It is crucial for us to consider the potential implications of this move and the impact it may have on the USDJPY currency pair.
Given these developments, I strongly encourage you to consider a short position on USDJPY. While this decision ultimately rests in your hands, weighing the potential risks and rewards is important. As PIMCO's move suggests, a tighter BOJ monetary policy could lead to yen appreciation, thereby weakening the US dollar against the Japanese yen.
Timing is of the essence, and it is essential to act swiftly in the face of this potential shift in the market dynamics. I recommend conducting thorough research, analyzing market trends, and consulting with your trusted advisors before making any investment decisions.
As always, it is essential to remain vigilant and adaptable in these uncertain times. The global financial landscape is constantly evolving, and it is our responsibility as traders to stay informed and make informed decisions.
If you have any questions or require further assistance, please do not hesitate to reach out. Together, we can navigate these challenging market conditions and seize the opportunities they present.
Wishing you success in your trading endeavors.
USDJPY: It cannot be said with certainty that a weak JPY has a nBank of Japan Governor Ueda said:
It cannot be said that the weak yen will have a negative impact on the Japanese economy.
A weaker yen promotes domestic inflation due to higher import costs.
Weak yen has a positive impact on exports and profits of Japanese companies globally
We do not comment on exchange rate fluctuations
As we get closer to our inflation target, we will be discussing exit strategies and outlooks, including ETF purchases.
The Bank of Japan has no concrete plans to sell ETFs.
When we sell ETFs, we do so in a manner that minimizes market disruption and significant losses to the Bank of Japan's balance sheet.
Potential deeper pullbackFX:USDJPY retraces some of Wednesday’s 0.60% gains on Thursday due to overall US Dollar (USD) weakness amid a risk-off impulse. Worse than expected, fundamental data from Japan’s triggered flows toward safe-haven assets, boosting appetite toward the Japanese Yen (JPY). At the time of writing, the major trades at 150.61, virtually unchanged in the early Asian Friday session.
According to the daily chart, the USD/JPY remains upward biased for the long term, but in the short term, the drop below the Tenkan-Sen at 150.92 could open the door for a deeper pullback, and test key support levels.
The first support would be the Kijun-Sen at 150.32, before diving to the 150.00 psychological figure. The correction would extend further, once traders clear the latter, with intermediate support seen at the November 3 low of 149.18, before sliding toward the Senkou Span B level at 148.91.
On the other hand, if USD/JPY buyers reclaim the Tenkan-Sen at 150.91, that would sponsor a leg-up above the 151.00 mark, opening the door to retesting the year-to-date (YTD) high at 151.91.
USDJPY: Japan's Economic Minister warned that the global recessiStatement from Japan's Minister of Economy on the third quarter GDP report:
It should be noted that the threat of global recession is depressing the Japanese economy
Domestic demand, including consumption and investment funds, decreased significantly in the third quarter
Personal consumption slumps due to rising prices
Industrial production is under pressure due to rising raw material prices and reduced investment in construction and machinery.
Consumption of services such as eating out continues to recover
Concerns about the future of the Chinese economy need to be carefully monitored
USD/JPY approaching historical resistance zoneDear traders, USD/JPY is approaching a historical resistance zone. There
could be a pullback from this level.
The area between 151.80-152.30 is a potential reversal zone as it happens
to be the confluence of both the channel resistance and horizontal resistance.
If there is bearish price action in this zone, traders can consider selling
USDJPY@151.80-152.30 with SL above 152.60 and TP at 146.50
YEN WATCH! 🧐Summary
The Yen continues to weaken. The USDJPY is now at a 25-year high.
The Details
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) intervention could happen any week, meaning some big moves on JPY pairs. I am expecting at least a 500 pip bearish move on USDJPY 💥
If there is no intervention, USDJPY may reach as high as 155-160 before the BOJ changes interest rates to strengthen the Yen.
The JPY is weak across the board, especially against the FOREXCOM:CNHJPY PEPPERSTONE:CHFJPY and PEPPERSTONE:SGDJPY
Things to Consider
Don't over-leverage JPY long positions due to your FOMO
Think longer-term. The intervention move could provide only temporary strength for the Yen. The BOJ may need to hike rates before the Yen forms its lows. An interest rate hike may not happen until Q1/Q2 2024.
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USDJPY SELL | Day Trading AnalysisHello Traders, here is the full analysis.
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USDJPY - Bullish continuation ✅Hello traders!
‼️ This is my perspective on USDJPY.
Technical analysis: Nothing changed here, as I said in my previous analysis I have a long position, expect price to take buy side liquidity and to create new higher high. I will secure my trade and move SL to BE.
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