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USD/JPY overreacts to rate hike signal from BoJ? A huge gap in USD/JPY has appeared to start the week after comments from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda about a possible end to its negative interest rate policy (NIRP). In a Saturday Yomiuri newspaper interview, Governor Ueda mentioned that by the end of the year, the BOJ could accumulate enough data to assess whether the conditions are present to raise interest rates. Ueda comments follow a series of hawkish comments by BOJ officials in recent weeks amid inflationary pressures within Japan. On Monday morning, USD/JPY retreated from its 10-month peak of 147.87. It traded down to 145.89, found resistance just below 147.00, before finding a home around 146.56. Is the market overreacting to Ueda’s comments though? His talk of an exit doesn’t suggest any big changes to monetary policy this year at least, and moving from –0.10% to non-negative rate is symbolically important, but the BoJ (Bank of Japan) rate is still 5 percentage points behind the Fed’s. Knowing this, would you be surprised if the USD/JPY begins its assent again? US CPI (Consumer Price Index) data out this Wednesday could be a catalyst for the pair to target 147.00 again, depending on whether price pressures rise more than expected (currently the consensus is for a rise from the current 3.2% to 3.5%)
by BlackBull_Markets
USDJPY I Weekly forecast and opportunity aheadWelcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments! ** USDJPY Analysis - Listen to video! We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met. Please support this idea with a LIKE and COMMENT if you find it useful and Click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email in the future. Thanks for your continued support!
Long
by BKTradingAcademy
8
The Yen Bull-Bomb is Ticking!JPY continues to be sold. USDJPY is nearing the previous intervention area of 148-151. The BOJ needs to do something. They are starting to feel the squeeze. Today, the bomb started to tick. The BOJ has suggested they will do all possible to strengthen the Yen. They have two significant weapons: intervention and interest rates. Intervention - This will bring an initial bullish shock to JPY pairs, like in October 2022. This could see a 400-600 pip move on USDJPY. Followed by a short-term retrace move. In November 2022, this retrace move was 2000 pips. Interest rates - A rate change is BIG news for the Yen. Possibly, the Nikkei also. This is significant because monetary policy shifts from negative to zero or positive rates. This change could end the JPY selling. A change in monetary policy may be enough to reverse the Yen. Intervention may not be needed. The JPY could weaken further before the BOJ steps in. Price may even reach highs of 152+, but the bomb is now ticking. The ball has started to roll. Today marks the beginning of the end. Prepare for some manic JPY buying. I traded the last BOJ intervention. My timing was off twice (I was too early), but I caught the intervention move third time lucky. It resulted in my most profitable FX option trade to date. DO look to trade this. BEWARE of the downside risk on ***JPY pairs. EXPECT slippage if you are short the Yen when and if intervention kicks in.
Short
by Samuel_Morton_Trader
USDJPY Carry Trade PressureThis summer, quiet markets favored the carry trade. Popular funding currencies here are still the JPY and the CNY. The carry trade involves borrowing low-interest currency and investing in high-interest currency to profit from interest rate differential and exchange rate movements. Traders often use JPY and CNY as funding currencies due to their low-interest rates and stable exchange rates, with USD being a popular target currency due to its higher interest rates and a strong economy. A higher USD/JPY means that the USD appreciates against the JPY, which is good for the carry trade. A lower USD/JPY means that the JPY is appreciating against the USD, which is bad for the carry trade. Short-covering rallies in the JPY may happen during risk-off periods, such as the bond sell-off in early August. However, the carry trade can only be disrupted by a consistent increase in volatility. July's adjustment to the Bank of Japan's Yield Curve Control, which involved raising the cap on 10-year JGB yields to 1.00% from 0.5%, did not result in a stronger yen. No additional changes by the Bank of Japan are expected until late October. It seems that the BoJ may have to intervene once more if the USD/JPY goes above 145/146 in order to limit its topside. If we see a weaker dollar in 4Q as well as some additional BoJ adjustments will may see it push back down to 130. Just a small note, I did not enter the trade yet. For now it remains an idea
Short
by RomanoRnr
USDJPY Counter Trend & Possible Start Of Short Term Bear MarketUSDJPY had a magnificent rally that lasted over 6-weeks. Unfortunately, nothing last forever and trends have a short-term span. I first noticed the pair going into a possible consolidation once it hit YTD highs and rejected it on 08/29/2023. Price was already showing struggle to break higher from the beginning of this month and been in a 3-week consolidation. I first look to take a short to range lows around 145.00, then will liquidate my positions and be in cash until further evidence of selling pressure is confirmed. We could get a bounce from 145.00 support, a false breakout back to monthly highs or a possible continuation south to test monthly lows. I am not here to predict the price moves, just going with my evidence and prepared for a possible false move against my position at any time so trailing-stop losses will be applied as the market continues in my favor for as long as the trend goes on. My only concern is that price is struggling to break below 145.70 which is a conflicting support that I wish to see taken out in the next several hours or my sells will start to be in question. Worst case scenario is that my entry is stopped out due to irregular market conditions and whipsaws around back to 146.50 which is the current 2-day range going on in real-time. If that happens then I will close out my sell positions and be neutral as the market would be in the most unfavorable condition and I do not want to tie my margin into something not going as planned.
Short
by bajapips
Analyzing the bearish case for USD/JPY Hello everyone, in this analysis, we will take a look at the bearish scenario for USD/JPY. As you can see from the chart, USD/JPY is currently at the upper trend line of the rising channel, which increases the probability of a reversal. 📌Yesterday, a bearish daily candlestick had formed at the upper TL. So, if price doesn't rise above 147, we can expect a reversal back to the 141 level. 📌 My recommendation is to sell the rallies in USDJPY@146.50-147 with Stop loss above the upper TL and TP at 141
Short
by MarcellusLUX
Gold Hits Record High Against Yen, Defies USD, So Sell JPY?I write to you today with concern and urgency as the gold market takes an unprecedented turn. In recent weeks, gold has reached record highs against the Japanese Yen (JPY), potentially defying the US Dollar (USD) dominance. This unexpected development calls for immediate attention and careful consideration, as it could have significant implications for traders like yourself. The Gold-Yen Relationship: For years, the USD has been the primary currency in which gold is priced and traded globally. However, the recent surge in gold's value against the JPY suggests a potential shift in the market dynamics. Historically, gold has been seen as a safe-haven asset during times of economic uncertainty, and its rise against the Yen may reflect growing concerns about the Japanese economy or geopolitical tensions in the region. Implications for Traders: As traders, it is crucial to recognize the potential impact of this gold-yen relationship on your portfolios. The weakening JPY could increase demand for gold, driving its price higher and potentially causing a ripple effect across various financial markets. Ignoring these warning signs could expose your investments to unnecessary risks. Short-Term Selling on JPY: Given these developments, I strongly urge you to consider a short-term selling strategy on the JPY. By taking advantage of the current gold-Yen dynamics, you can profit from the uptrend in gold prices against the Japanese currency. However, it is crucial to approach this strategy cautiously and seek advice from trusted financial advisors or experts. Seek Professional Guidance: Navigating the complexities of the financial markets requires expertise and careful analysis. Therefore, I encourage you to consult with professionals who can provide tailored advice based on your circumstances. They can help you devise a trading plan that aligns with your risk tolerance and investment goals, ensuring you make informed decisions. Conclusion: The record-breaking surge of gold against the Japanese Yen serves as a wake-up call for traders worldwide. By considering a short-term selling strategy on the JPY, you can potentially capitalize on the current market dynamics and safeguard your investments. However, always remember the importance of seeking professional guidance to ensure your actions align with your financial objectives. Take action now and stay ahead of the curve. The gold-Yen relationship demands your attention, and making informed decisions today will position you for success in the ever-evolving financial landscape.
Short
by bryandowningqln
Why USD/JPY bulls should be cautious at these highsUSD/JPY has continued to defy gravity despite the growing threat of verbal (or actual) yen intervention by the MOF/BOJ. Yet the higher and faster it rises, so does the threat of intervention. You can see what impact it had on USD/JPY from the large bearish candle that formed on 23 October 2022, where the initial break above 150 was then met with a swift move lower and subsequent -16.3% decline over the next 2.5 months. However, what has caught our eye today is that recent cycle highs have stalled around the 10 October high, the day a softer-than-expected US inflation report saw the US dollar plunge. There is also a volume node from the choppy price action in October at 147.1, and such HVNs can act as both a magnet to attract prices and also become support/resistance. And given USD/JPY’s recent pattern of breaking key levels and cycle highs before reversing, we’re a little sceptical of bullish breakouts – especially with the growing threat of verbal/actual intervention. Furthermore, the US02Y-JP02Y spread has stalled just beneath its March high, so perhaps USD/JPY is at least due a pullback before it tries to break higher. Either way, we’d prefer to buy dips over breakouts. And as for any potential pullback, we’d prefer to wait for a breakout to become a ‘fakeout’ (where prices move back below the initial breakout level) before shorting against the trend.
by CityIndex
USD/JPY's 30-Minute Support and ResistanceIn the intricate realm of forex trading, precision guides every move. Every level, and every fluctuation holds profound significance. Let's delve into the technical intricacies shaping the journey of the USD/JPY pair within the 30-minute timeframe. Steadying the Path: Dual Support Levels In the heart of these crucial moments, USD/JPY establishes its path with the presence of two distinct support levels: Primary Support - 145.722: This forms the primary anchor for the pair, laying the groundwork for potential rebounds and recoveries. Secondary Support - 146.273: A supplementary layer of support in case the pair faces heightened downward pressure, bolstering its capacity to resist further descent. Overcoming Barriers: Resistance Comes to Light However, the journey forward is characterized by barriers. The pair faces a single resistance point that stands as a formidable hurdle, demanding a determined push to surmount: Resistance 1 at 146.631: This pivotal juncture marks the principal challenge for USD/JPY's upward advance. A successful breach could signal a shift in the underlying market sentiment, possibly opening avenues for further ascension. Guiding Strategy: Plotting the Trajectory For traders and astute observers, the interplay between USD/JPY and these support and resistance levels is a treasure trove of insights. Each movement, every shift, holds key clues about the evolving market sentiment. The dual supports at 145.722 and 146.273 serve as a strong foundation, providing opportunities for potential recoveries. Yet, the obstacle presented by the resistance at 146.631 underscores the necessity of a concerted effort to propel the pair upward. As time ticks within this 30-minute window, the movements of USD/JPY unfold like an engaging narrative. The interplay between support and resistance, between the aspirations of buyers and the strategies of sellers, crafts a dynamic storyline that traders closely follow, seeking to unravel the near-term trajectory of this captivating currency pair.
by enclavefx_Analaysis