USDJPY Weekly FOREX Forecast: March 10 - 14th In this video, we will analyze USDJPY and JPY Futures. We'll determine the bias for the upcoming week, and look for the best potential setups.
After a long period of weakness in the YEN, the last couple of months have shown a turnaround. By several metrics, the BOJ has the country's economy finding its footing, and looking up. This is reflecting in its currency. It a time of uncertainty, the YEN will and has been outperforming the USD, as investors look to it as the safe haven of choice. This is likely to continue in the next week or so.
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Usdjpyshort
USDJPY Bearish Momentum - Will It Reach 147.640?OANDA:USDJPY is currently trading within a descending channel, indicating a strong bearish structure. The price has broken below a key support zone and may now pull back for a potential retest. This level previously acted as support and could now serve as resistance, aligning with a possible bearish continuation.
If sellers confirm resistance at this zone, the price is likely to move downward toward the 147.640 target. However, a failure to reject this level could indicate a potential shift in momentum.
Traders should monitor for bearish confirmation signals, such as bearish engulfing candles, strong wicks rejecting the resistance zone, or increased selling volume, before considering short positions.
Let me know your thoughts or any additional insights you might have!
USDJPY Short Idea - 4H ChartThe USDJPY pair is currently facing resistance at a key supply zone near 150.90 - 151.10, aligning with previous structural resistance and a 200 EMA rejection. The price recently made a lower high within a downtrend, indicating further bearish momentum.
Trade Setup:
🔹 Entry: Look for bearish confirmation in the 150.90 - 151.10 supply zone.
🔹 Stop Loss: Above 151.20, beyond recent highs to avoid stop hunts.
🔹 Target: The next demand zone around 148.80 - 149.00, a key support area tested previously.
The bias remains bearish as long as price stays below the 200 EMA and fails to break the resistance zone. A rejection from this level could lead to a continuation of the current downtrend.
📉 Watch for: Rejection patterns, bearish engulfing candles, or confirmation from lower timeframes before entering a short position.
🔔 Stay patient and manage risk accordingly! 🚀
USD/JPY probability assessment of the next price movement:From analyzing the USD/JPY charts across different timeframes, here is a structured probability assessment of the next price movement:
Market Structure Overview:
Bearish Trend on Higher Timeframes (4H & 1D)
The market has been trending downward, breaking previous lows.
A clear Break of Structure (BOS) and Change of Character (ChOCH) suggest bearish control.
Discount Zones are marked, showing potential reaction areas.
Liquidity & Order Flow
Price is currently near a discount zone on the lower timeframes (15m, 30m, 1H).
Premium zones are visible on higher timeframes, meaning a retracement could happen before further downside.
Key Levels:
Resistance Zones: 151.000 - 152.000
Support Zones: 148.000 - 148.350
Equilibrium Levels: Around 150.000
Probability Scenarios:
Bearish Continuation (65% Probability)
Price is forming lower highs and lower lows.
If price fails to break above 150.000 convincingly, a further decline to 148.350 - 148.000 is likely.
BOS confirms continued bearish momentum.
Bullish Retracement (35% Probability)
If price reacts strongly at the discount area, a push toward 150.500 - 151.000 before continuing lower is possible.
Confirmation required: A higher low formation and BOS in lower timeframes (15m, 30m).
Trading Plan:
Short (Sell) Plan - Higher Probability
Entry: Around 149.500 - 150.000 (If price shows rejection)
Confirmations Needed: Rejection from supply zone + bearish price action (e.g., bearish engulfing)
Stop Loss: Above 150.500
Take Profit: 148.350 (1st target), 148.000 (2nd target)
Risk-to-Reward: 1:3
Long (Buy) Plan - Lower Probability
Entry: 148.350 - 148.000 (If price shows bullish reaction)
Confirmations Needed: Strong bullish candles + BOS on lower timeframes
Stop Loss: Below 147.800
Take Profit: 150.000 (1st target), 151.000 (2nd target)
Risk-to-Reward: 1:3
Final Summary Table
Scenario Probability Key Level to Watch SL TP
Bearish Continuation 65% 149.500 - 150.000 150.500 148.350 - 148.000
Bullish Retracement 35% 148.350 - 148.000 147.800 150.000 - 151.000
📌 Conclusion: The market remains bearish unless a strong reversal structure forms. Best trade is to wait for a short entry around 149.500 - 150.000 and target 148.350 first. A bullish move is possible but needs confirmation. 🚀
USDJPY Weekly SetupFor the past few weeks, this pair has been on a bearish trajectory, and I do anticipate that the momentum will continue.
The targets are;
1. 150.93 ~ This is the lows of the past 2 previous weeks.
2. 149.6 ~ This is the Weekly Bullish Order Block
3. 148.7 ~ Another sellside liquidity formed in December.
The daily and 15 minute timeframe will give us the best entry and stop loss for this pair.
USDJPY - Longterm viewHere is our in-depth view and update on USDJPY . Potential opportunities and what to look out for. This is a long-term overview on the pair sharing possible entries and important Key Levels .
Alright first, let’s take a step back and take a look at USDJPY from a bigger perspective. For this we will be looking at the H4 time-frame .
USDJPY is currently trading at around 149.000s . We are still extremely bearish on FX:USDJPY since our last longterm analysis was completed:
Scenario 1: SELLS from 148.200
-We broke below the downtrend channel.
With the break of the downtrend channel we can expect more sells to come and we should continue the bearish trend on USDJPY slowly digging into lower levels potentially reaching our target of 145.000.
Scenario 2: SELLS from 151.250
-We above the downtrend channel - 149.900.
If we above our downtrend channel we can expect some short-term buys up to our main Key Level or PBA (Pullback Area) from where we can look to enter into the long-term sells.
IMPORTANT KEY LEVELS:
- 151.250; possible pullback area
- 148.200; breaks below confirming lower levels
- 145.000; longterm target (prices from Aug-Sep 2024)
Personal opinion:
We are currently trading in a downtrend channel and we are expecting more sells to come throughout the next weeks. We do have to be careful as TVC:DXY and TVC:JXY might experience some volatility tomorrow due to the following news:
JXY: Tokyo Core CPI y/y
DXY: Core PCE Price Index m/m
KEY NOTES
- USDJPY breaking above 149.900 would result in higher pullbacks.
- USDJPY breaking below 148.200 (below the downtrend channel) would confirm sells.
- USDJPY is overall extremely bearish.
Happy trading!
FxPocket
USDJPY Analysis todayHello traders, this is a complete multiple timeframe analysis of this pair. We see could find significant trading opportunities as per analysis upon price action confirmation we may take this trade. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
Short opportunity ?There is a strong line of support and resistance at 148.65 area,
I have a short position I opened a few weeks ago. I am still patiently waiting for the price to break below this level.
In October 2024, the price tried to break above the same support and resistance area and it took three weeks to properly break above and start the bull trend. (see blue box in the chart)
At the time, the price consolidated in the ascending parallel channel and the momentum indicators were showing clear hidden divergence which is the continuation of the trend.
I think the same scenario is unfolding right now. The price is moving inside the descending parallel channel and RSI is starting to show the hidden divergence.
My overall bias for USDJPY is bearish so I am looking for an entry to short.
When the price hit the upper parallel channel and rolle over to the downside, it might be a good place to open a short position.
USDJPY: Bearish Trend ContinuationHello everyone.
As seen on my chart, im expecting a bearish trend continuation seen on higher timeframes after what I believe could be some stop hunts!!
Used a fib to mark premium and discount zones. I expect price to continue go down once the premium zone is hit.
Feel free to leave your thoughts and feedback in a comment, I would heavily appreciate it.
USDJPY Downtrend USD/JPY is currently in a strong downtrend, indicating a bearish market sentiment. The pair continues to follow the descending trendline, respecting lower highs and lower lows, which confirms the ongoing downward momentum.
Bearish Scenario: Trend Continuation
First Key Support – 148.100
This level serves as a major support zone where price could find temporary consolidation or a minor pullback.
If price breaks below 148.100 with strong bearish pressure, further downside is expected.
Next Major Support – 142.000
A clean break and close below 148.100 could accelerate selling pressure.
The next critical level to watch is 142.000, a strong historical support zone and a psychological level.
If this level is reached, the bearish trend will likely extend further.
Bullish Scenario: Trendline Breakout
If USD/JPY breaks above the descending trendline, it may signal a potential trend reversal or retracement.
The key resistance to watch for a breakout is 151.300, which acts as a strong support-turned-resistance level.
USDJPY Signal - 5 months support test 24.2.25148.60 to 152.70 range
Currently trading at 149.70
Support of 148.60-149.80 range is holding strong for the past 5 months.
Standard correction 300 pips up towards 152.70 makes sense following the expanding wedge pattern highlighted on the chart.
100 pip downside compared to 300 pip upside swing trade.
Make logical, timed, calculated action sticking to a plan and managing risk as top priorities.
GOOD LUCK!
USDJPY: remains below 150.00Furthermore, any significant retracement could find immediate support near the 149.50 level, which is followed closely by the 149.00 round number. A break below the latter might expose the USD/JPY pair to a retest of the 148.50 region, a level seen as the next strong support. Sustained weakness below this area could pave the way for a deeper corrective decline, with the next target around the 148.00 level. Traders will likely keep a close eye on these levels, as they could provide fresh directional impetus for the pair.
The beginning of the carry trade unwind part 2?If we look at the chart, the current structure looks very similar to what happened right before the market decline in August.
We've formed a head and shoulders (albeit not perfect as it's slanted), and price seems to be breaking down.
If price action accelerates to do downside, it's likely to take the market with it just like it did the last time.
Paying attention to this over the coming weeks.
USDJPY top-down analysis Hello traders, this is a complete multiple timeframe analysis of this pair. We see could find significant trading opportunities as per analysis upon price action confirmation we may take this trade. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
USDJPY Daily BiasThe price has been on a bearish momentum for the past few days and I do anticipate that the momentum will continue.
The price had retracted towards the Volume Based Inefficiency formed around 152.2 and my sell entry position will be determined in a smaller TF (15 Minutes) in a follow up analysis on the same.
USDJPY and GBPJPY Top-down analysisHello traders, this is a complete multiple timeframe analysis of this pair. We see could find significant trading opportunities as per analysis upon price action confirmation we may take this trade. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis
USDJPY:800+ PIPS Dropping Well Since Our First Idea!Dear Traders,
Since we posted our idea when price was trading at 158 we told you that this will be a massive dropped and since then price has proven us right, now we think there is another big drop is on the way. Please use proper risk management while trading.