UDS/JPY Falling to 146.000!? Double Top Reversal Signal CompleteUDS/JPY has a double top reversal signal on the Daily candles and a triple top on the 4HR candles with a massive gap to fill. This reversal signal happened at a key level, 152.00 which is the previous high from October 2022. As shown in my previous prediction, a short position is reasonable at this level. The double/triple top is the confirmation of that short, which increases the probability of profit significantly.
If there was a time to short in this bull channel, it would be now .
Key Points
1. Double Top Reversal Signal on the Daily Chart
2. Triple Top Reversal Signal on the 4HR Chart
3. Gap to bottom of the channel at 146.000
4. The lowest target price is the Previous Channel High of 145.000
5. RSI at 52.00, Plenty of room to fall and supports #1-4
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Usdjpyshortsetup
USD/JPY Daily Analysis - The Pullback has Begun! Fall to 146.000USD/JPY has finally touched the previous high of 152.000 with a strong bull candle that we'll call a Bull Capitulation. Immediately after that price target was hit, we saw a series of bear bars falling to the 30EMA. We have now been above the 30EMA for 69 days and after touching a key price range, have a high probability of falling below down to the bottom of the bull channel at the 145.000-146.000 range.
Key Points:
1. We're in a Bull Channel which means we have a better chance of profit longing.
2. Previous High of 152.000 has been touched.
3. Bull Capitulation Candle on Oct 23.
4. DXY Strong Bear Signal Bar of the bottom of the bull channel.
5. JPXY Still at Risk of Bull Reversal, this week's candle may decide.
6. RSI has room to fall and while a weak indicator, supports the previous 5.
As always, trade at your own risk, you are responsible for your trades. I hope this analysis was insightful and useful.
Trade wisely and let us know what you think in the comment section below!
USDJPY Long Term SELLING Trading IdeaHello Traders
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USDJPY NEXT POTENTIAL MOVEAll of fx traders for sure have witnessed how long usd rallies vs jpy. Fed keeps raising interest rate and BOJ on their mode to keep ultra soft policy.
As there’s saying there’s nothing permanent.
Personally I look forward to the huge downside move of this pair. Currently it is running on 149 level. I’m not interested in buy as sell provides better risk:reward.
The invalidation level is 2022 high 151.944.
Anyone shares the similar view?
May be pips be with u Guys.
Trade with care.
Risk management is everything.
USD/JPY Short. Is the dollar done here? And is Japan ascending?I have to give credit to Julian Brigden for this outline. So please look up his recent Blockworks interview on youtube.
I am happy to further develop on his observation by pointing out that what he observed as a "crash pattern" is in fact a diamond reversal pattern.
I enclose a comparison to what I consider the "classic" manifestation of a diamond reversal which is the Nasdaq100 index during the 2001 recession.
We also had recent significant-scale diamond reversals on the SPX in 2021 and on Bitcoin if you would like further references.
There is a significant RSI divergence that has been in place since 2022 on the weekly chart.
I think that this means that a dollar pullback is imminent and a surprise strengthening on JPY due to them getting close to breaking out of their deflationary depression.
This could also coincide with the return of inflation that I have been expecting.
I am shorting this outline and I intend to expand my position if the pattern is not violated. I will be more aggressive as the outline develops.
For further information on how I discovered this you can google-up Julian Brigden's interview on Blockworks.
Happy hunting!
USDJPY – What's the intervention threshold? USDJPY – What's the intervention threshold?
In September of last year, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) made a move in the market to strengthen its currency when it reached 145 against the USD, marking the first such intervention since 1998. This action was taken following the BOJ's decision to maintain an extremely accommodative policy (a policy that is yet to change still). The BOJ intervened once more in October when the yen further plummeted to its lowest level in 32 years, reaching 151.94 against the dollar.
At present, investors hold a substantial short position in the yen, valued at $9.793 billion, representing the largest such position in the USDJPY since May 2022. This value has nearly doubled in just the past three months. Notably, former Japanese Vice Finance Minister Eisuke Sakakibara has suggested that the USDJPY could reach 160 before the BOJ intervenes once again.
However, the USDJPY has recently built a bit of a buffer between itself and whatever the intervention threshold is for the BoJ. Over the past two trading days, the US dollar has weakened, largely due to remarks made by Federal Reserve officials. These statements have strengthened the belief that the US central bank is nearing the end of its tightening phase.
It is widely anticipated that Fed policymakers will implement a rate increase during their upcoming meeting this month, which would set the policy rate range at 5.25% to 5.50%. However, the timing of any subsequent rate hikes remains uncertain. There are questions whether they will raise rates again in September, delay until November, or maintain the current stance and allow inflation to naturally subside over time.
Consequently, the US dollar has experienced a decline against the yen, reaching a low of 141.32 yen, the lowest level observed since June 21. Currently, it is down 0.5% at 141.328. This drop follows a decrease of nearly 1.3% seen last Friday when the US nonfarm payrolls for June fell short of market expectations at 209,000.
#USDJPY 4H | 1H Sell🔘Broke the structure on the 4H timeframe
🔘Broke the structure on the 1H timeframe (confirmation)
If we break the market structure up on the hourly timeframe, we we'll go a little higher before drop, but if we break the red level on the 4H timeframe, the analysis becomes invalid🙅♂️
USDJPY rejected at 4H Lower HighI decided to short UJ here as the 4H shooting star at a re-tested area was a bearish enough signal for me to go short. Price has been making Lower Highs on 4H and daily chart. The bullish candles have been forming with a lot of indecision. This entry was taken based on the 4H close, as well as the 1H presenting a strong evening star at a Evening star re-test. My entry was upon a bearish 15min engulfing at a potential high/re-test of resistance. My stop loss is just Above the high of the shooting star. My target is the next daily Lower Low.
USDJPY - CURRENT SENTIMENT , FUNDAMENTAL BIAS#USDJPY
- As of last day, the MARKET SENTIMENT for USD was slightly UP SIDE. The main reason for that is the JPY starting to weaken and the short-term POSITIVE SENTIMENT against the dollar. It came with the NFP REPORT. The dollar weakened slightly after the FOMC last time. But the FED can raise the RATE HIKE or their CEILING RATE whenever necessary. Anyway, it was mentioned in the previous MEETING that the FED is still MONITORING INFLATION DATA.
- All MARKETS including STOCKS and COMMODITIES are going down slightly due to MARKET RISK OFF.
- There is definitely a high possibility that USDJPY will go UP a bit more and move to 137.91 LEVEL. Anyway, USDJPY price can go down to 129.52 level before that. We focus on MARKET UPDATES and MARKET SENTIMENT. Follow the given MARKET STRUCTURE.
USDJPY AnalysisWhile the price is above the support, expect the price to break the triangle and move in a downward direction, and hit around 133 or above. If it breaks the pattern we got major support around 129.600-129.800
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USDJPY - CURRENT SENTIMENT , FUNDAMENTAL BIAS#USDJPY
- As of last day, the MARKET SENTIMENT for USD was slightly UP SIDE. The main reason for that is the JPY starting to weaken a bit and the short-term POSITIVE SENTIMENT against the dollar. Because it came with the NFP REPORT. The dollar weakened slightly after the FOMC last time. But the FED can raise the RATE HIKE or their CEILING RATE whenever necessary. Anyway, it was mentioned in the previous MEETING that the FED is still MONITORING INFLATION DATA.
- All MARKETS including STOCKS and COMMODITIES are going down slightly due to MARKET RISK OFF.
- There is definitely a high chance that USDJPY will go UP a bit more and move to 135.610 LEVEL. Anyway, USDJPY price can go down to 124.739 LEVEL after that. We focus on MARKET UPDATES and MARKET SENTIMENT. Follow the given MARKET STRUCTURE.